The Twins Underrated Path to Contention

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

This is it: the problem is not that the Twins have no talent and no opportunities for overachievement, it's that they have too many spots where best case is uninspiring. What's the most we are going to get out of Lee, Bell, Larnach, Roden? Even if they all achieve "playable", the rest of the roster is not star studded. You aren't going to win divisions and playoff series with that much mediocrity.

Bell & Larnach are not Stars but they are at a different level than Lee & certainly Roden!

Wallner & Lewis have already had exceptional seasons …….. they need to repeat something “approaching” those seasons. Even if they are 5% above League average it will be an uptick.

Buxton - Keaschall - Jeffers - Caratini - Martin play to their capabilities……..not All-star level but at or slightly above expectations.

If these meager goals are generally achieved - with rotation health……..they’ll be in the mix in the Central.

[Patzky]

13 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Waller should try getting XBH when guys are on base.

Guys should try getting base before Wallner gets an extra base hit 🎯 (whoops!)

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Tom Pohlad should take notice of what the Cardinals are doing and ask himself if he knows more about running a MLB team than the Cardinals organization collectively.  Then, he should go hire someone who knows what they are doing and let them do it.

Tom Pohlad doesn't make personnel decisions. Are you advocating for firing Jeremy Zoll and changing his title from owner to: Tom Pohlad, President of Baseball Operations despite Pohlad specifically saying that's not something he's going to do because he's uncomfortable with it?

 

[NYCTK]

38 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Bell & Larnach are not Stars but they are at a different level than Lee & certainly Roden!

What's with the ****ing on Roden? 

Alan Roden has a ZiPS projected RC+ of 104
Trevor Larnach has a ZiPS projected RC+ of 103

In addition, Roden is significantly better with the glove and significantly more agile. 

Larnach is NOT at a different level than Roden. They are both on the same level, and tbh I'd trade Larnach straight up for a player like Alan Roden. 

[NYCTK]

12 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Guys should try getting base before Wallner gets an extra base hit 🎯 (whoops!)

Then he wouldn't get as many meatballs and he'd suffer. 

Wallner Career	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Low Leverage	507	0.267	0.367	0.591	0.958	0.403
Med/High Leverage	465	0.191	0.318	0.369	0.687	0.308

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Tom Pohlad doesn't make personnel decisions. Are you advocating for firing Jeremy Zoll and changing his title from owner to: Tom Pohlad, President of Baseball Operations despite Pohlad specifically saying that's not something he's going to do because he's uncomfortable with it?

Jeremy Zoll got the job because he already works for the Twins. They didn't look around and see if anyone better was available. They fired Falvey and promoted the guy Falvey elevated to the GM job.

They should absolutely do a search for a new POBO and should probably look for someone with a proven track record rather than hiring an up-and-comer. It is unlikely Tom Pohlad knows how to identify baseball front office talent. Can they afford Brandon Gomes of the Dodgers or would he make less money as the Twins POBO? If not, they might be able to poach Kingston or Slater.

[DJL44]

15 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

What's with the ****ing on Roden?

Simple - he's not "one of us" and he was the return for "one of us". People are going to hate him just because he was part of the Varland trade.

[Major League Ready]

37 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Tom Pohlad doesn't make personnel decisions. Are you advocating for firing Jeremy Zoll and changing his title from owner to: Tom Pohlad, President of Baseball Operations despite Pohlad specifically saying that's not something he's going to do because he's uncomfortable with it?

 

Personnel decisions are done withing the context of the direction taken by the team.  Put the best team you can on the field even if the likely result is a sub 500 team vs trying to build a contender.  It sure seems to me that Tom Pohlad has chosen the direction.  He has stated they have to win this year and that explains the difference between the Cardinals approach and the approach taken by the Twins.  He is also very influential in determining the budget which of course has a huge impact on personnel decisions.  Zoll's personnel decisions are a byproduct Pohlad's direction.   The Cardinals and Twins have taken opposite approaches.  Which organization do you have more faith in?   

[Woof Bronzer]

 

27 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Simple - he's not "one of us" and he was the return for "one of us". People are going to hate him just because he was part of the Varland trade.

Or the fact that he was absolutely terrible last year.  

[NYCTK]

10 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

 

Or the fact that he was absolutely terrible last year.  

Yes, in a quarter season worth of play split between two different organizations. Anyone making conclusions on that run is a fool. It adds a question mark, but like I said, I'd probably trade Larnach for him, one for one. 

[bean5302]

56 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Personnel decisions are done withing the context of the direction taken by the team.  Put the best team you can on the field even if the likely result is a sub 500 team vs trying to build a contender.  It sure seems to me that Tom Pohlad has chosen the direction.  He has stated they have to win this year and that explains the difference between the Cardinals approach and the approach taken by the Twins.  He is also very influential in determining the budget which of course has a huge impact on personnel decisions.  Zoll's personnel decisions are a byproduct Pohlad's direction.   The Cardinals and Twins have taken opposite approaches.  Which organization do you have more faith in?   

Falvey was fired for a reason. Given a budget of $200MM, he'd find a way to sign 10 has-been scrubs for $100MM of it.

Ownership does not determine the methodology. They don't choose the personnel. The reason the Twins and Cardinals look different is Derek Favley. Not Tom Pohlad. Pohlad may have given the direction on the budget and the ownership expectations.

"You have $110MM and we expect to be competitive this year with that budget. Present your methodology, and implement the process."

Falvey signed has-been scrub DH Josh Bell for $7MM (upside down contract in BTV) when he already had Trevor Larnach of the same value for $4.7MM. He kept both instead of Eugenio Suarez for $15MM. Tom Pohlad didn't make any of those types of decisions and they represent Falvey's failures of methodologies.
 

 

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

Yes, in a quarter season worth of play split between two different organizations. Anyone making conclusions on that run is a fool. It adds a question mark, but like I said, I'd probably trade Larnach for him, one for one. 

How should we draw conclusions if not from his performance?  It's not like he's a raw 18 year old.  He's 26.  

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Falvey was fired for a reason. Given a budget of $200MM, he'd find a way to sign 10 has-been scrubs for $100MM of it.

Ownership does not determine the methodology. They don't choose the personnel. The reason the Twins and Cardinals look different is Derek Favley. Not Tom Pohlad. Pohlad may have given the direction on the budget and the ownership expectations.

"You have $110MM and we expect to be competitive this year with that budget. Present your methodology, and implement the process."

Falvey signed has-been scrub DH Josh Bell for $7MM (upside down contract in BTV) when he already had Trevor Larnach of the same value for $4.7MM. He kept both instead of Eugenio Suarez for $15MM. Tom Pohlad didn't make any of those types of decisions and they represent Falvey's failures of methodologies.
 

 

We just will have to agree to disagree.  my point has nothing to do with specific personnel decisions.  I am talking about their strategy, and the Cardinals are following a very different strategy.  Zoll had virtually nothing to say about the decision to reverse directions in the middle of a rebuild.  I am also quite certain that in the same position, Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Tampa would be doing the same thing as St. Louis.   

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

We just will have to agree to disagree.  my point has nothing to do with specific personnel decisions.  I am talking about their strategy, and the Cardinals are following a very different strategy.  Zoll had virtually nothing to say about the decision to reverse directions in the middle of a rebuild.  I am also quite certain that in the same position, Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Tampa would be doing the same thing as St. Louis.   

Your position is that the Pohlads sets the strategy and tasked Falvey to carry it out. Cardinals owners did dictate a strategy shift and a full rebuild with deep payroll slashing at all costs.

I don't think that's the same for the Twins. Falvey didn't seem to know what the payroll was going to be. It feels to me like the Pohlads likely told Falvey to present options, and ownership selected the compete in 2026 strategy presented and Falvey failed to carry out the necessary moves to realistically follow through.

[weitz41]

Every now and then even a blind squirrel finds a nut. This could be the Twins year.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Your position is that the Pohlads sets the strategy and tasked Falvey to carry it out. Cardinals owners did dictate a strategy shift and a full rebuild with deep payroll slashing at all costs.

I don't think that's the same for the Twins. Falvey didn't seem to know what the payroll was going to be. It feels to me like the Pohlads likely told Falvey to present options, and ownership selected the compete in 2026 strategy presented and Falvey failed to carry out the necessary moves to realistically follow through.

I am quite sure that the Pohlad's did not unilaterally set strategy prior to Tom showing up.  It's most likely they managed the budget and let Falvey dictate strategy within that budget.  I think the upheaval was a result of Tom taking the reins and insisting they had to compete in 2026 no matter how unrealistic that was at the present level of spending.  Falvey told him he had his head in the sand and Tom fired him.  

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

How should we draw conclusions if not from his performance?  It's not like he's a raw 18 year old.  He's 26.  

When there's that small of a sample size (153 PA), it's often more helpful to look at high minors numbers. Compare him to Larnach's and Martin's high minors numbers at the same age. 

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BB%	K%
Larnach	293	0.255	0.355	0.406	0.761	0.151	11.3%	29.0%
Martin	1206	0.262	0.401	0.363	0.765	0.101	14.2%	19.0%
Roden	881	0.303	0.403	0.475	0.877	0.172	12.0%	13.6%

It's not ridiculous to look at these three players and think that Roden has a significantly better skillset, and therefore ceiling.

Larnach's and Martin's major league skills have translated basically exactly as expected and Roden's have not thusfar. But rather than concluding he's a bust after a quarter season, it's far more reasonable for a team like the Twins to give Roden more play because the struggles he's shown likely are a mirage.  Neither his K rate or BB rate seem in line with what he showed in the high minors. 

Royce Lewis had 153 PAs by his 42nd game with a 580 OPS last season. It would be as foolish to completely give up on Royce as it would be to give up on Roden. 

None of this is to say I'm even a fan of Roden. I think he's more appropriate as a 4th OF, but I want to see him play nearly every day for a 74 win team to see what he can actually do. 

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I think he's more appropriate as a 4th OF, but I want to see him play nearly every day for a 74 win team to see what he can actually do. 

Beats the hell out of playing Outman.

[MGX]

6 hours ago, NYCTK said:

What's with the ****ing on Roden? 

Alan Roden has a ZiPS projected RC+ of 104
Trevor Larnach has a ZiPS projected RC+ of 103

In addition, Roden is significantly better with the glove and significantly more agile. 

Larnach is NOT at a different level than Roden. They are both on the same level, and tbh I'd trade Larnach straight up for a player like Alan Roden. 

Trevor Larnach career wRC+ 103 VS Alan Roden career wRC+ 56

Roden could certainly develop into a hitter like Larnach or possibly be even better & I hope he does. He hasn't proven anything above AAA to this point. It seems to me they are very much on a different level currently.

[Woof Bronzer]

3 hours ago, NYCTK said:

When there's that small of a sample size (153 PA), it's often more helpful to look at high minors numbers. Compare him to Larnach's and Martin's high minors numbers at the same age. 

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BB%	K%
Larnach	293	0.255	0.355	0.406	0.761	0.151	11.3%	29.0%
Martin	1206	0.262	0.401	0.363	0.765	0.101	14.2%	19.0%
Roden	881	0.303	0.403	0.475	0.877	0.172	12.0%	13.6%

It's not ridiculous to look at these three players and think that Roden has a significantly better skillset, and therefore ceiling.

Larnach's and Martin's major league skills have translated basically exactly as expected and Roden's have not thusfar. But rather than concluding he's a bust after a quarter season, it's far more reasonable for a team like the Twins to give Roden more play because the struggles he's shown likely are a mirage.  Neither his K rate or BB rate seem in line with what he showed in the high minors. 

Royce Lewis had 153 PAs by his 42nd game with a 580 OPS last season. It would be as foolish to completely give up on Royce as it would be to give up on Roden. 

None of this is to say I'm even a fan of Roden. I think he's more appropriate as a 4th OF, but I want to see him play nearly every day for a 74 win team to see what he can actually do. 

Fair enough and you're right, this season SHOULD be about giving guys like Roden a shot.  I'd honestly be much more interested in the season if that was the plan.  

[awmonahan]

I don't disagree with anything here, but have also felt versions of this for the past few off-seasons. Fingers crossed we have a healthy year with some guys peaking at the right time. 

[Brandon]

Injuries hurt the team.  Last year was Wallner, Keaschal, Lewis, Ober and Pablo Lopez.  We need the IF guys to be healthy as we have less depth there.  we also need Lopez to pitch 180 + innings this year and Ober to be able to get over 165 innings with a sub 4 ERA.  Getting more offense at C with Cartini and 1B with Bell will help.  We need another reliever and then it will come down to getting a reliever or two developed and we then a competitive team.

[Riverbrian]

20 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Tom Pohlad should take notice of what the Cardinals are doing and ask himself if he knows more about running a MLB team than the Cardinals organization collectively.  Then, he should go hire someone who knows what they are doing and let them do it.

I will be paying attention to the Cardinals. How they do in 2026 and the years to follow. 

It may not be this year but If I had to place a bet on who makes the playoffs first between the Cards and the Twins. I'll take the Cardinals. 

[Bodie]

If anyone with actual say-so thinks Wallner is underrated, please call the Twins front office. Something can be worked out...

[Bodie]

19 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Then he wouldn't get as many meatballs and he'd suffer. 

 

Wallner Career	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Low Leverage	507	0.267	0.367	0.591	0.958	0.403
Med/High Leverage	465	0.191	0.318	0.369	0.687	0.308

But his arm strength... (just ignore that day and a half windup!)

[Bodie]

On 2/4/2026 at 8:47 PM, AceWrigley said:

Especially when even our mediocrity is very mediocre.

I've seen mediocrity.

I watched ~130-40 Twins games last year.  They were seldom mediocre.  They stunk, individually (excepting Buxton and Keaschall) and were worse than that collectively.

The problem isn't mediocrity (that would be a huge step up!), it is that people who should be the last guy or two off the bench (if that) start for this team.  

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I will be paying attention to the Cardinals. How they do in 2026 and the years to follow. 

It may not be this year but If I had to place a bet on who makes the playoffs first between the Cards and the Twins. I'll take the Cardinals. 

The Cards have a long track record of building sustainable success.  They understand the up and down cycles  that are part of any organization outside the top 5 or 6 in revenue and they don't miss opportunities to rebuild in their down cycles. 

Based on the Peralta/Gore trades you have to believe the Twins would have gotten an impact player or two had they traded Ryan.  I hate to say it but it probably made sense to let Buck go as well if he really was willing to waive his NTC.  Lopez could have played a role helping develop young pitchers and potentially moved at the deadline.  The assets from these trades plus the 3rd pick next year along with the rest of our relatively deep farm system and you have a good shot at building a real contender.  A well-run organization like the Cardinals does not squander these opportunities for a team that would be very fortunate to be 500.  The entire baseball world expected the Twins to take advantage of this opportunity.  Up to this point I have felt the Pohlad's influence was neither harmful or productive.  This path is misguided and is likely to hurt the team for the next several years, perhaps the next decade.  We are left hoping for this team to be the big surprise of the league.  It's possible.  Just highly unlikely.  I sure wish the sale had gone through. 

[dxpavelka]

22 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

We get it, you hate it here.  

Why would you think something that stupid

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The Cards have a long track record of building sustainable success.  They understand the up and down cycles  that are part of any organization outside the top 5 or 6 in revenue and they don't miss opportunities to rebuild in their down cycles. 

Based on the Peralta/Gore trades you have to believe the Twins would have gotten an impact player or two had they traded Ryan.  I hate to say it but it probably made sense to let Buck go as well if he really was willing to waive his NTC.  Lopez could have played a role helping develop young pitchers and potentially moved at the deadline.  The assets from these trades plus the 3rd pick next year along with the rest of our relatively deep farm system and you have a good shot at building a real contender.  A well-run organization like the Cardinals does not squander these opportunities for a team that would be very fortunate to be 500.  The entire baseball world expected the Twins to take advantage of this opportunity.  Up to this point I have felt the Pohlad's influence was neither harmful or productive.  This path is misguided.  We are left hoping for this team to be the big surprise of the league.  It's possible.  Just highly unlikely.

I don't remember many St. Louis re-toolings. The Cardinals typically spend about 20 to 50 million more than the Twins have spent in recent years. 

They've done a good job developing. From Alcantara and Gallen types who are traded for Ozuna types to Nootbaars types that do a decent enough job. 

This year Bloom is in charge and he has reset the Cards. Nootbaar is now the 2nd highest paid player at 5.3m. 

The Twins did not reset. Lets see who gets there first. I'll bet on the Cards. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

IMO, when you're saying a player is underrated, it means their production or contributions are undervalued - it doesn't necessarily mean that they're capable of taking that next step or that they have a higher ceiling to reach.