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Everything posted by ToddlerHarmon

  1. I think there is a story in Kepler's Statcast number that DOES add up to his mediocre production, and maybe to a path forward. His worst trait is xBA but it's not horrible. His hard-hit stats are good, but never great, especially for a corner outfielder. (Someone on TD once pointed out that Max's fly balls pre-2019 were long enough to be deep outs, but seldom long enough to be hits. I'm betting his 2021 flies look the same) To stand out, he needs to get *some* stat that's well above average. To do that, he needs to sacrifice something. Should he be swinging for the seats more, to get the hard-hit numbers over the hump to being a standout? Since he has good discipline, it looks like he could go there. The Bomba Squad season showed this approach can succeed, but 2019 was a world of juiced baseballs where the majority of pitches were fastballs. After 2021, the low xBA tells me he would sacrifice too much contact to be viable. His AVG is barely playable as it is. Maybe his best approach is the other way around. Shorten and flatten the swing, and work on line drives. This may seem disappointing, but he has enough foot speed, discipline, and physical strength to make this a productive approach. So, more aiming for .260/.360/.410 than the current .210/.310/.410. Is that an improvement? Well, OPS goes up by just .050, which is nice. But a sensible RC27 would go from: 205 TB * (105 H + 75 BB) / (500 AB + 75 BB) / 395 outs * 27 = 4.4 runs/game for a lineup of fly ball Keplers to 205 TB * (130 H + 75 BB) / (500 AB + 75 BB) / 370 outs * 27 = 5.3 runs/game for a lineup of line drive Keplers Which is a huge improvement
  2. Look, I know it's possible I'm the only one who has read this, but I don't sprinkle bat wings over my tea every morning while saying an incantation to Calvin Griffith's poodle for this clown to come along and mess with the juju,
  3. Between Donaldson's health, Arraez' possibly improving defense, and a need to find him a long term home, Arraez is your new third baseman. DH Donaldson C Garver 1B Sano 2B Polanco 3B Arraez SS ?? Free Agent/ Defensive stopgap until Martin or Lewis can be auditioned LF Kiriloff CF Buxton RF Kepler Bench: Jeffers, Larnach? Celestino? Miranda?
  4. Worth considering. I can see that the Yankees will feel pressure to grab a big free agent and push him aside. Any speculation on the nature of an undisclosed injury? We know that recovering ankles have propelled Polanco forward, but *another* infielder with bad wheels seems like the last thing we need.
  5. And don't forget that Nishioka literally did not know how to play shortstop at a major league level. Horrible, horrible signing
  6. I love this. However, the conclusion to draw, IMO, is not "the FO should decide to sign guys like this", because the market reality is they can't make that decision. They have to hope the Yankees, Dodgers, et al, allow such a signing. The real conclusion to draw is the MLB has to make it possible for the Twins and similar teams to pursue such FAs. Whether through CBA, revenue sharing, national media contracts, or something. It is simply getting ridiculous.
  7. I get that the Twins' only glut of assets to trade from is non-SS infielders, but you do realize that you just sent away about half the lineup's above-replacement production?
  8. It also sounds like 2000-2010 Twins. Which had a ceiling of getting to the playoffs, but not the horses to make a run. If Falvine are going to show they can build a pitching pipeline, 2022 is a good time to start testing it As far as still having a lineup to compete if the pipeline delivers, it seems you have the following expiration dates: Donaldson - 2022 Buxton/Polanco/Sano/Kepler/Garver - 2024 If you don't make that, it's on to rebuilding with Arraez/Kiriloff/Jeffers/Larnach/Lewis/Martin/Miranda/Celestino, et al
  9. I worry that signing Pineda only fills a rotation spot half the time. Yes, better than filling that spot with a Shoemaker performance, but still, it leaves you having to make another move, and have that work out
  10. If only it had been Colome. I'm pretty sure he will be able to vault *some* team into the post season this year, but it won't be the Twins
  11. I'll go along with your clarification, but this part brings up another concern: doesn't this strategy also set them up to sign players about whom they disagree with the rest of the league? Which works if they find a diamond in the rough, but fails if they fail to account for the shortcomings that others have seen. In any case, the player evaluation remains the thing they have to get right. Nothing new or surprising there.
  12. Probably true in the case of Ray, but the strategy of late FA signings did backfire on the Twins here, and remains questionable for fielding a playoff team
  13. Right? No 25-year-old starting pitching legends defecting from Cuba that hate the Yankees?
  14. A lot of hand-wringing has gone into players the Twins have let go that have broken out this year. I don't see any candidates for such fears in a group like this. (Maybe Minaya? But that ship has sailed, IMO) However, one does have to fill the bullpen with some confidence. So, yeah, Thielbar and/or Minaya, I'd be ok with either or both. Beyond that, you start exposing prospects with too much upside or youth to other teams.
  15. I voted 15-26, not with any conviction, but just because too many pleasant surprises are happening, and too little is on the line. Rookie pitchers will make a second trip through the division rivals, injuries will not be played through, and the lineup will be opened up for tryouts, and to protect the health of the veterans.
  16. I agree that if they see little difference in a prospect getting AAA innings and MLB innings, that explains a lot of their moves. But flies in the face of a lot of experience
  17. Fear of commitment? I'm only partially kidding. There seems to be some sort of psychology that they love to chase the next project rather than embracing and finishing what is in the organization. Is this fed by chasing the best numerical indicators of future performance, and hoping that those just magically become actual performance? Also waiting for someone to come along and provide justification for this strategy, not just for the tactical decision to pick up pitcher A or pitcher B
  18. Yes, the top ten is looking loaded. Edit: Cavaco's OPS might be .649, but I doubt his SLG is, with 11 XBH in 50 games
  19. I don't know whether 5 open spots are necessary, so I'd keep Thorpe and hope a reliever or two settles in and becomes worth keeping
  20. How realistic is Palacios being a future starting SS? And how soon? Among the shortstop-ish players and prospects, it seems the refrain is that they should not be there long term (Polanco, Lewis, Martin, Gordon...) But that doesn't seem to be the case with Palacios.
  21. I agree, and RC and wOBA do better. Even more extreme than your example is the overweighting of HR in OPS. One can be a slumping Sano. and have a good 470 SLG with an unplayable 280 OBP. The resulting 750 OPS may look average, but too many outs makes this hitter a weak spot in the lineup
  22. If we attached these OPS+ to specific position averages, my guess is Sano falls to below average, but Jeffers and Astudillo rise to above average? It certainly seems like today's OPS averages are lower than 2006, which meets the eye test
  23. Thanks for this. This look does also offer some hope, if we move Polanco back to SS. One could see a lineup with: Sano - Garver + Kiriloff ? Arraez + Donaldson + Polanco + Larnach ? Buxton + Kepler - That's 5 plus bats, 2 unknown youths, and cross your fingers on Sano and Kepler finding 2019 again. So it could be competitive, or even good, without having to add free agents
  24. My back of the envelope guess is Strotman is eligible and Sisk is not
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