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ToddlerHarmon

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Everything posted by ToddlerHarmon

  1. ToddlerHarmon
    I'll take 3 WAR or even less, if he can start every playoff game in center and with enough expected production to bat above 7th. For those wanting season stats, I recommend judging Buxton's offense by wRC+ rather than OPS+, as it considers steals, and, IMO, values overall offensive game more accurately.
  2. ToddlerHarmon
    I agree that I don't see that anyone is blocked. I'd go even further and say that the current situation gives us a great chance to evaluate Julien and Kirilloff on defense, and Lee's offense in AAA, which so far hasn't made it clear that he is an MLB starter. And given that Santana will wither if he gets 500 AB, I don't think there's much of an issue even if everyone is healthy at the end of the season.
  3. ToddlerHarmon
    “Byron Buxton was there..., but he didn’t even get stitches.” ^ My suspension of disbelief was pierced right here
  4. ToddlerHarmon
    The Twins off-season moves reflect that starters and relievers are on opposite ends of the bang-for-the-buck spectrum: they can't afford* any starters except hopeful injury recoveries, but can gather enough relievers with MLB experience for 2 bullpens, with minimal cost in trades or salaries. So the natural course is to cling to any hope of being a cheap starter for as long as possible. Varland is a long way from taxing anyone's patience on that front. One wonders if the Twins secretly regret converting Duran, despite his relief dominance. *What the Twins can "afford" is decided by Joe Pohlad, alas.
  5. ToddlerHarmon
    Echo the thoughts on the quality of this article. As for Cuba, is it the case that they do not allow players to be signed before 18? I'm fuzzy on the details, but that might be a key piece of this puzzle. I know that players acquired at later ages have less time before Rule 5 kicks in, but isn't 18 the cutoff for that? As in, a 17-year-old signee will be one year younger (and thus less certain in his development) when he becomes Rule 5 eligible?
  6. ToddlerHarmon
    I agree with all of the trade-skeptical comments here, especially on selling low, but assuming the Twins have to trade someone from their lefty corner guys, the perceived value vs actual value of Kirilloff might make him the odd man out. However, given that I doubt the Twins are ready to move on yet, Kepler is in his final contract year, and Larnach is in doubt, by the time we know whether Kirilloff is tradeable, the corner lefty logjam might be gone.
  7. ToddlerHarmon
    I didn't say it was a good plan, just that it might be the plan
  8. ToddlerHarmon
    If the need is a right-handed DH, then the Twins might sit on that need until the trade deadline. They would be hoping that we have enough margin for error to take our chances with Varland or Sclafani in the rotation, and Miranda or Gordon or Martin getting at bats versus lefties. If that works well enough to be near first place in July, then they can deal prospects and take another swing at the playoffs. This sounds more like the 2022 plan than the 2023 plan, with maybe a deeper bullpen and younger guys that could go off.
  9. ToddlerHarmon
    Forget stats, or even the eye test. Nishi failed the nose test - he stunk
  10. ToddlerHarmon
    Of note for potential 26th man: Miranda and Stevenson project as viable, Larnach and Martin not so much. Time to find out whether the 2021-2022 numbers for Jeffers, Wallner, Kirilloff, and Julien were learning curve, or the means to which they regress after breaking out in 2023. Love the comps for Lewis and Lopez!
  11. ToddlerHarmon
    I am a converted fan of the strategy last off-season: crowd the roster. If we know that we want a righty with big offensive numbers in this spot, put a few guys on the roster who have a chance. Start with Miranda, but do we bring back Solano, add Severino, sign a free agent? Or do we create a crowd at second by bringing up Lee and re-signing Polanco, and push Julien to first? One great part of the crowded-roster strategy is it gives an easy fan's answer to posts like this: try everything. (Except Gallo lol)
  12. ToddlerHarmon
    I'm not sure how to make this element of things happen, but it would be fun to see what I'd have to call "lore" on the site. Everything from my own not-riveting account of everyone on the home run porch knowing full well that the Gladden triple play hit plexiglass first (shhh), to links or excerpts of already published tidbits about the goofy things that make up our collective understanding of a player, like Gardenhire saying we "hate [AJ] a little less", or even the best blog silliness that captured the moment and deserves some posterity (Lil Nicky Punto and Lego replays). I don't necessarily propose spending a lot of effort digging up past anecdotes, but definitely collecting these things as they come up, just quick links on the player page.
  13. ToddlerHarmon
    I could go either way. If I heard from the Twins that something about Ryan's stuff or approach looked unsustainable, I'd be more convinced that this was the right move. Even so, if Joe Ryan had pitched a six innings and given up 3 runs, that would have been about the best we could have expected going in. So it's hard to call this a mistake. There's a nagging thought in my head that some of these playoff moves were about the future more than this year. This move, along with playing Jeffers every game, and limiting Ober as well, could be seen as attempts to maximize confidence and health for key young players. If true, I'm not sure that is a right-headed approach
  14. ToddlerHarmon
    I think those worried about the offense need to recognize how much it improved in the second half. We can break it down to improved Kepler, returned and productive Polanco and Kirilloff, more time from Jeffers, and the arrival of Lewis, Julien, and Wallner (and actually improvements from each of them over the course of the year). That's almost the whole lineup, and speaks to good coaching. The other part of the improvement was less time from Gallo, Buxton, Taylor, and Vazquez. So for those looking for the offensive cure, we say goodbye to Gallo and Taylor, hope for healthy Buxton and Correa, and keep Vazquez in a half-time-at-best role. And pick up the options on Kepler and Polanco With all that, there is still probably a need for more at first and in center. Re-sign Solano? Hope for more from a healthy Miranda? Bring up Martin? Any of these options is happily a high-contact hitter, to help balance the free swingers. Based on this year, where crowding the roster worked wonderfully, I'd say the answer is yes to all of them. In any case, the second half, and the playoff run, should earn some trust in the coaches and front office to keep this thing going
  15. ToddlerHarmon
    I'd rather they keep Funderburk on the roster and drop Paddack. Houston has dangerous lefties and we are more likely to need a second lefty than another multi-inning reliever with Maeda and Varland both available. I'd also like to see Ober get the call for Game 1 in Houston.
  16. ToddlerHarmon
    Another way to phrase a short rotation and disappearing offense is that we have lacked enough elite talent to compete against the league's best teams. With Correa and Buxton not at their elite best, and Gray and Maeda being the pitchers with playoff bona fides, it will be interesting to see who has the chops to compete at this level. I am confident Lewis does, if healthy. Lopez and Duran should. Julien, Wallner, Kirilloff, Jeffers, Ryan, and Ober? Time to find out.
  17. ToddlerHarmon
    Or MLB front offices approach life like frightened rabbits, and worry about 17-inning Game 1s or something. You are correct that the Twins' frightened rabbits will probably put 12 pitchers on the playoff roster.
  18. ToddlerHarmon
    Royce Lewis was on the field for 200 plate appearances and maybe 50 chances at third. Sonny Gray got 540 outs (180 innings) and gave up about 200 base runners. As much as I love Lewis, I have no problem saying Gray made more impact.
  19. ToddlerHarmon
    Doesn't quite have the same ring as Tinkers to Evans to Chance
  20. ToddlerHarmon
    I can't really argue with this. We have to hope that rest gives us the best versions of Buxton, Correa, Duran, Jax, and pretty much all of the starters. Would love to see Funderburk as a second lefty in the pen, and I am wary of Paddack being sharp after so long away. So if asked today, I probably make that swap. The hitters look like the right choices and the right roles, though Taylor being everyday in center is worth considering. Buxton needs to be ready to contribute, because Luplow has been effective in the same role.
  21. ToddlerHarmon
    It looks great on paper that our key defensive positions are manned by good defenders with playoff experience in Correa, Taylor, and Vazquez. I believe they each were frequent playoff starters on championship teams. Any insights, however anecdotal, on how they have performed defensively in previous playoff runs?
  22. ToddlerHarmon
    About the only point in DH days would be to keep his timing together, so that might be an option for the final series. In general, I'd like to see them take the same approach with CC, the starters, and anyone like Julien who is nursing an injury: a big break right after clinching, and then play the first halves of the games in Colorado.
  23. ToddlerHarmon
    Not even a little bit? Getting the antenna just right to pick up Herb's voice was a special skill. Though I would have hated to lose the signal driving in from South Dakota when we picked Darrell Evans(I think?) off of third in the 87 ALDS.
  24. ToddlerHarmon
    Based on last week, everyone but the Orioles and Twins are backing into this thing. But I still fear the Astros the most
  25. ToddlerHarmon
    His contributions have been totally underappreciated. A lot of Twins victories this year were kept safe and boring by clean innings from Thielbar.
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