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ToddlerHarmon

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Everything posted by ToddlerHarmon

  1. ToddlerHarmon
    I guess I've become cynical, but only Culpepper looks like he could be a two-way star, with Lewis and Keaschall both looking like bat-first players that might flame out. Lee, Clemens, et al all look to have a ceiling of useful bench player or maybe 7-9 hitter on a good team. For a reality check, Scott Leius was the short half of a third base platoon on the 1991 Twins, perhaps the second-or-third-worst-hitting regular in the lineup, and still a 1.5-2 WAR player. Yet only Clemens in the group above is on track to surpass his performance in 2026. We have such a climb ahead to establish a championship infield
  2. ToddlerHarmon
    I appreciate the sentiment, and it should be plan A for 2026. But all the major leaguers on that list have shown plenty of reason to doubt that steady playing time will turn them into competent regulars. Alas.
  3. ToddlerHarmon
    Even without SWR, the Twins have a young starting staff. That seems to make long relief a role we will need, and one SWR might be well suited for, if he can regain his mojo. For both players, this plummet smells of playing through injuries for whatever reason
  4. ToddlerHarmon
    The article does not mention that the Twins tried to change Martin in the minors before seeing whether his contact skills could play, whereas they let Lee suffer and work things out in the majors. Because of this, the time it took to arrive at a useful player was much longer for Martin. Some of this was circumstance rather than differences in developmental philosophy, but both strategies began to implement after last year's trade deadline. Is there a lesson? I hope so, and I hope the Twins have learned it.
  5. ToddlerHarmon
    .
  6. ToddlerHarmon
    You may be overstating, but just a bit. This team needs to take some big swings* at excellence and youth. While I believe that proven MLB performers get under-valued in the chase for ooh shiny, the Twins are in a situation where lightning has to be given a chance to strike. *NB: not an endorsement of big swinger Outman :)
  7. ToddlerHarmon
    This is it: the problem is not that the Twins have no talent and no opportunities for overachievement, it's that they have too many spots where best case is uninspiring. What's the most we are going to get out of Lee, Bell, Larnach, Roden? Even if they all achieve "playable", the rest of the roster is not star studded. You aren't going to win divisions and playoff series with that much mediocrity.
  8. ToddlerHarmon
    This is the whole deal. The sample size of batted balls last season for all three was small, and when you zoom back, the larger sample size doesn't make any of them look like good MLB hitters. And each of them have notable small samples where they looked great: Outman and Julien as rookies and Clemens in his first few weeks as a Twin. The regression to the mean has already happened for them. The only luck remaining is that they are all lucky to be on an MLB roster.
  9. ToddlerHarmon
    The most-ready impactful prospect might be EmRod, though I suppose you need to see if he is past his injury. To play him every day, either he or Wallner would have to be your DH. IMO add EmRod and Roden. Drop Outman, trade Larnach, and pick between Julien and Clemens. Stare pointedly at Brooks Lee while waiting for Culpepper to prove it at AAA.
  10. ToddlerHarmon
    This is the whole thing right here. The Twins started the season with above-average expectations and an almost-average payroll. The opportunity cost of playing and paying Correa instead of playing and paying others sunk the team's season, as it was too high a cost for this mid market team to bear. Is that "fair" to Correa? Maybe not, but that's the downside of getting paid $30M a year to play baseball.
  11. ToddlerHarmon
    I get the feeling they have all "lost" his number
  12. ToddlerHarmon
    Hmm. If no starting pitchers are traded, I would guess Topa's option gets picked up in a bid for competitiveness. Gonzalez is more likely IMO to be given a shot on Opening Day than either Outman or the young Jenkins. The roster has no backup shortstop, and I don't think Clemens has done enough to keep that spot. Especially if any one of the corner outfielders can take over first base. So Culpepper instead?
  13. ToddlerHarmon
    I slightly disagree with the author's statement that Martin's emergence changes no plans: it should have the Twins vetting several of their corner outfielders for first base. It should also give them confidence to move on from the 4A experiments like Outman, Kiersey, McKusker, and maybe Roden. To echo someone above, Martin should be the bar to clear, offensively, defensively, and by age. If you're not clearly better or younger, someone else needs a shot.
  14. ToddlerHarmon
    Two bats; if you are spending, you are keeping Lopez and Ryan, and you will need lineup oomph to make that worthwhile. Sure add a bullpen arm, but that is hardly your big spend.
  15. ToddlerHarmon
    I think you are correct about what is being suggested. But my opinion (and maybe other posters' hope) is that it should only be done if you have an option to actually adopt it. Otherwise, you make it too hard to adapt pitchers that turn out to be excellent into the traditional starter role. Kind of a practice-like-the-real-thing philosophy. I see the most promising possibility for long-term adoption being creating a permanent third category between starter and reliever: a piggybacker who does multi-inning stints at (mostly) regular intervals. That could be valuable for development, for surviving a staff with few 6-inning-capable starters, and for adapting to the inevitable but unpredictable situations of an overworked pen. I could go along with that experiment.
  16. ToddlerHarmon
    Subtitled: How the Pohlad Kids Lost a Billion Dollars in Franchise Value. They didn't have to sign Gray, or Kepler. One $20M/year slugging first baseman, instead of "right-sizing", and maybe the last 2 years we don't collapse. Correa showed them how it could be done, and they weren't interested.
  17. ToddlerHarmon
    Worry about the HR rate when he's 24
  18. ToddlerHarmon
    Pretty much this. It wouldn't qualify as "much", but getting an average-hitting backup catcher might be exactly what the Twins need. Would Larnach even fetch that?
  19. ToddlerHarmon
    If you don't think tearing it down makes sense, why are you trading away Festa and ERod, who have a chance to contribute to winning as early as (checks watch) immediately?
  20. ToddlerHarmon
    The real story here isn't the Twins' draft judgment. It is the story of Jay's perserverance. That's the story I'd rather have read. Maybe it has been written elsewhere?
  21. ToddlerHarmon
    Would anyone like to share with the author what year it is?
  22. ToddlerHarmon
    While it wouldn't shake the world, and his performance to date has not demanded it, bringing Martin up to replace Gasper could theoretically create an option. If Keaschall and Rodriguez were being held down for any reason other than injury, that would be a mistake. So, yeah. Like Rocco, I got nothing
  23. ToddlerHarmon
    Given the talent in the high minors and among recent rookies, it seems we should have 2B, starter, and reliever depth to trade from if we want to buy at the deadline.
  24. ToddlerHarmon
    Hmm too bad we all want Larnach to get better defensively, rather than be the everyday DH. Otherwise, a Keirsey/Bader platoon in left would be great defensively, and would suffice for batting ninth
  25. ToddlerHarmon
    A useful set of stats taken together with contact rate and exit velocity, I would think. Look at Correa, who maintains a decent threat level by your PullAIR, but has a very high OppoGB, and hits to all fields. If we assume good contact and not too many swings and misses, you have what we know about Correa: a solid hitter that pitchers have to respect, who doesn't make easy outs.
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