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ToddlerHarmon

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Everything posted by ToddlerHarmon

  1. ToddlerHarmon
    Now let's remove the guys who have NOT proven they are MLB hitters yet: C Depth - Garver, Jeffers, 1B Depth - Kirilloff, Sano, Donaldson, Garver 2B Depth - Polanco, Arraez 3B Depth - Donaldson, Arraez SS Depth - ?, Arraez LF Depth - CF Depth - Buxton RF Depth - Kepler DH Depth - Sano, Garver, Donaldson So, if Larnach hits, you need Arraez less. But proven depth? No.
  2. ToddlerHarmon
    I remember being at a game against the Yankees, must have been April or May 2006. The Twins took a tiny lead, then things started to fall apart. The Yankees tied it up, had men on base, and the top of the order up. Liriano came in and looked unhittable against an historically great lineup. He shut things down, then kept the door shut as the Twins took it into extra innings and won on a Morneau squibber into right. Anyone who has ever seen a Twins-Yankees playoff collapse can just imagine what could have been if Liriano had kept that form for a few more years with the Twins.
  3. ToddlerHarmon
    I think you're right, but interesting that that leaves Donaldson, Maeda, Sano, and Rogers off the list
  4. ToddlerHarmon
    Excellent premise, and well done. You even left shortstop open for us to argue about. Since you put a lot of weight on clubhouse presence and fighting spirit, my vote goes to Tanner of the Bad News Bears, who probably was the model for the real life AJ Pierzynski.
  5. ToddlerHarmon
    This I think is the real story. They are taking their shot with the young pitchers. A pitching pipeline requires doing so. Doing so for five rotation spots is not how you write it up, but 2020 made it impossible to evaluate all the young pitchers on actual MiLB performance, so now they have to hold MLB level auditions or turn their back on half of their pipeline without enough information. I may not agree, but they seem to have concluded this is the right path. I will admit that there is NO affordable strategy that is likely to fill out an entire rotation from scratch and get you to the World Series. So auditions may be the least bad path for 2022
  6. ToddlerHarmon
    I'm ok that Falvey and Levine and Pohlad are trying to find new and efficient ways to build a roster. BUT, if that work isn't even *trying* to build a *championship* roster, then count me out.
  7. ToddlerHarmon
    No The Twins don't have a DH (especially if Kirilloff is needed in the outfield, which looks likely) Besides Arraez, the Twins only have Donaldson who can regularly get on base at over a 350 clip The better defenders in his positions are older and more expensive. And some stats were tracking him as better than Donaldson at 3B now. At his age, he is one of the new, cheap crop to keep until pitching arrives. The rest of the established core will be on the wrong side of 30 very soon Donaldson needs to be kept fresh if he can't be traded, and will bring a bigger haul if he can be And finally, the bat to ball skills aren't merely entertaining. They are the unteachable offensive skill. And the Twins have darn few others in the organization who can match Arraez on that, and no youngsters who have proven it in MLB
  8. ToddlerHarmon
    So, we have a lineup, but no rotation, and holes in the bullpen Circumstances dictated that we trade Berrios, and we did the best we could by getting prospects We have a handful of young starters that need MLB experience to both see who develops and to become competitive If we sign Buxton, our lineup will remain intact for a couple more years, with the exceptions of Sano and probably Donaldson. And, we WILL overpay if we outbid anyone for starting pitching (not to mention that if teams like the Yankees decide to win any bidding war, it's out of our hands) I hate to say it, but to me, this adds up to focusing on auditions, not wins, in 2022. Don't sign any FA, extend Buxton, and find out which youngsters can start (x5), close, and play shortstop. Then fill in the holes before 2023.
  9. ToddlerHarmon
    I have to admit ignorance of this part of the calculation. The idea of a replacement player is below average: your standard AAAA player - someone that can be obtained from waivers or a minor-league contract for the cost of nothing more than a roster spot. But that doesn't give me a number to hold on to. I've heard that a team of replacement players (0 WAR) would be expected to win about 48 games (again, with Runs -> Wins), but I don't know how that baseline gets set, either. Polanco being credited with 4.8 WAR isn't at all a slight. It means a lineup of 9 2021-version-Polancos, saddled with the Saints rotation, bullpen, and bench, (think 5 ERA pitching and a bunch of .200-hitting benchwarmers) would grab 91 wins and a Wild Card berth, if not a division championship. The usual benchmarks for hitters are 8 WAR is an MVP season, 5 WAR is an All Star season, 2 WAR is an average everyday hitter (for their position). I'm sure you've heard it before, but the runs-produced stats are obviously dependent on other players' performance, and end up with clear outliers. A famous example: 1985 Mattingly, a fine hitter, looks like Gehrig with 253 R+RBI, when in truth it was Rickey Henderson's INSANE production in front of him that made it all possible, but he "only" had 218 R+RBI, (which also doesn't credit the fact that Henderson played a much harder defensive position). WAR, which gives Mattingly all-star kudos at 6.5, and Henderson ALL-TIME recognition at 9.9 WAR, paints a more accurate picture.
  10. ToddlerHarmon
    To answer the specific question of whether on-base percentage is weighed correctly versus slugging when coming up with WAR, the answer is: there was an attempt. WAR uses Runs Created (RC) as its basis for offensive production, which gives more weight to getting on base than OPS does. It also gives more weight to singles versus walks (because walks don't drive in runners from 2nd), credits steals, etc. So, WAR tries to fairly account for the different offensive skill sets. Now, whether it does so accurately is another issue. The WAR calculation assumes a "normal" offensive environment, so a lineup with extreme power and poor on base skills might struggle more than WAR accounts for, and so might a lineup with good on-base skills and little power. The other thing WAR does is assume that runs make wins. Which equates consistent production with streaky production, which is probably not accurate. A team that averages 4.5 runs a game by having a week of 1, 2, 2, 3, 8, and 10 runs probably went 2-4, but a team that scores 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, and 7 runs probably went 3-3 or 4-2. So, IMO, WAR undervalues on-base skills, because something that happens 35% of the time (getting on base) is more consistent than something that happens 10% of the time (extra-base-hits).
  11. ToddlerHarmon
    This sounds like a great best case for the post-Donaldson future. Assuming this gives you Sano, Garver, Kirilloff, Polanco, MIranda, Lewis, Larnach, Buxton, Kepler, Jeffers, Arraez, and Martin. So, you do have room for Gordon, Palacios, or some other Adrianza-esque SS backup. But leaves Rooker or any other bench slugger out of the picture.
  12. ToddlerHarmon
    Getting more than a wild card bid in 2022 is a long shot, even with trade and free agent acquisitions, mostly because the starters that would put us in the World Series aren't available at a price we can pay. Hopefully the young pitchers develop enough to make 2023 more realistic. That says to me: - *don't* trade Arraez, he's just 24. If this had been his rookie season performance at age 24, we'd be moving pieces all over to find a place for him to play. He can be a huge part of the next group if this group doesn't perform. Start him at 3B as often as you can. Donaldson will need the rest anyway. - Sano and Kepler are tradeable as underperformers, and have candidates for their position (Kiriloff, Larnach) waiting to prove themselves - don't trade for rentals
  13. ToddlerHarmon
    I had the impression that his defense at 3B has been at least average this year. He's still just 24, and one of our few reliable OBP producers, so in a lineup sense, he is not redundant. Yes, he would bring back more than Kepler and Sano. But he's the kind of guy you trade to make a playoff run, not to solidify a reload.
  14. ToddlerHarmon
    "What about dealing a semi-redundant yet valuable fixture such as Kepler, Arraez, or Sanó?" Arraez is younger, more productive, less expensive, and may still have more to show in 3B defense and power. He shouldn't be in the same trade conversation, IMO.
  15. ToddlerHarmon
    This works for me, especially because he is a righty, but *still* leaves trading Donaldson as an obvious choice, perhaps at the 2022 deadline. *After* a Donaldson trade, you would have a possible lineup of: Sano Garver Kiriloff Polanco Arraez FA/Martin/Trade Acquisition Miranda Buxton Kepler With Larnach, Rooker, Jeffers, Gordon as bench. You'd still have Lewis, Celestino, etc. coming
  16. ToddlerHarmon
    Sign Buxton
  17. ToddlerHarmon
    I think there is a story in Kepler's Statcast number that DOES add up to his mediocre production, and maybe to a path forward. His worst trait is xBA but it's not horrible. His hard-hit stats are good, but never great, especially for a corner outfielder. (Someone on TD once pointed out that Max's fly balls pre-2019 were long enough to be deep outs, but seldom long enough to be hits. I'm betting his 2021 flies look the same) To stand out, he needs to get *some* stat that's well above average. To do that, he needs to sacrifice something. Should he be swinging for the seats more, to get the hard-hit numbers over the hump to being a standout? Since he has good discipline, it looks like he could go there. The Bomba Squad season showed this approach can succeed, but 2019 was a world of juiced baseballs where the majority of pitches were fastballs. After 2021, the low xBA tells me he would sacrifice too much contact to be viable. His AVG is barely playable as it is. Maybe his best approach is the other way around. Shorten and flatten the swing, and work on line drives. This may seem disappointing, but he has enough foot speed, discipline, and physical strength to make this a productive approach. So, more aiming for .260/.360/.410 than the current .210/.310/.410. Is that an improvement? Well, OPS goes up by just .050, which is nice. But a sensible RC27 would go from: 205 TB * (105 H + 75 BB) / (500 AB + 75 BB) / 395 outs * 27 = 4.4 runs/game for a lineup of fly ball Keplers to 205 TB * (130 H + 75 BB) / (500 AB + 75 BB) / 370 outs * 27 = 5.3 runs/game for a lineup of line drive Keplers Which is a huge improvement
  18. ToddlerHarmon
    Look, I know it's possible I'm the only one who has read this, but I don't sprinkle bat wings over my tea every morning while saying an incantation to Calvin Griffith's poodle for this clown to come along and mess with the juju,
  19. ToddlerHarmon
    Worth considering. I can see that the Yankees will feel pressure to grab a big free agent and push him aside. Any speculation on the nature of an undisclosed injury? We know that recovering ankles have propelled Polanco forward, but *another* infielder with bad wheels seems like the last thing we need.
  20. ToddlerHarmon
    And don't forget that Nishioka literally did not know how to play shortstop at a major league level. Horrible, horrible signing
  21. ToddlerHarmon
    I love this. However, the conclusion to draw, IMO, is not "the FO should decide to sign guys like this", because the market reality is they can't make that decision. They have to hope the Yankees, Dodgers, et al, allow such a signing. The real conclusion to draw is the MLB has to make it possible for the Twins and similar teams to pursue such FAs. Whether through CBA, revenue sharing, national media contracts, or something. It is simply getting ridiculous.
  22. ToddlerHarmon
    It also sounds like 2000-2010 Twins. Which had a ceiling of getting to the playoffs, but not the horses to make a run. If Falvine are going to show they can build a pitching pipeline, 2022 is a good time to start testing it As far as still having a lineup to compete if the pipeline delivers, it seems you have the following expiration dates: Donaldson - 2022 Buxton/Polanco/Sano/Kepler/Garver - 2024 If you don't make that, it's on to rebuilding with Arraez/Kiriloff/Jeffers/Larnach/Lewis/Martin/Miranda/Celestino, et al
  23. ToddlerHarmon
    I worry that signing Pineda only fills a rotation spot half the time. Yes, better than filling that spot with a Shoemaker performance, but still, it leaves you having to make another move, and have that work out
  24. ToddlerHarmon
    If only it had been Colome. I'm pretty sure he will be able to vault *some* team into the post season this year, but it won't be the Twins
  25. ToddlerHarmon
    I'll go along with your clarification, but this part brings up another concern: doesn't this strategy also set them up to sign players about whom they disagree with the rest of the league? Which works if they find a diamond in the rough, but fails if they fail to account for the shortcomings that others have seen. In any case, the player evaluation remains the thing they have to get right. Nothing new or surprising there.
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