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ToddlerHarmon

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Everything posted by ToddlerHarmon

  1. ToddlerHarmon
    Maybe this is obvious to everyone here, but it seems like Sano and Garver, unlike Donaldson and Cruz, do not have the contact skills to be consistently taking first pitch strikes. If they want to swing for the fences, fine, but hoping that the second strike of every at bat is a meatball is too easy to pitch around. Yes, when the weather warms, both of them will make more contact with the crap they see with two strikes. But the approach still limits them
  2. ToddlerHarmon
    Best defensive lineup probably only has one spot in question: pitcher 1 Berrios 2 Jeffers 3 Sano 4 Polanco 5 Donaldson 6 Simmons 7 Cave 8 Buxton 9 Kepler
  3. ToddlerHarmon
    I am pleased that the Twins are generally keeping and starting the better defenders. That seems to be the case with Cave vs the other available options.
  4. ToddlerHarmon
    To add more calming words, Dobnak probably isn't ready to throw 180 innings anyway, so consider the time waiting in the wings as preemptive rest? It appears that Dobnak will make the roster, and that he will pitch substantial innings early. So, the odds that he gains a layer of rust while waiting are low. As for Darius' question, every professional sport has teams that allocate playing time according to contract size. That said, it isn't a good idea, which you can see by looking no further than our local NBA "team."
  5. ToddlerHarmon
    The good news is that Nelson Cruz will play DH forever. I am curious what the injury exposure for just batting and baserunning. Speed probably amplifies the risk here, too
  6. ToddlerHarmon
    With the exception of Garver, that 2013 draft class, oof
  7. ToddlerHarmon
    I could go along with just about any direction here. But the Twins' own evaluators need to decide which horses to bet on. Roughly going on ceiling, I think you have to stay committed to Kepler, and you have to make sure that Kirilloff is challenged and progressing. The harder question is what are you passing on if Rooker or Garlick are marginalized? But while we are in spring panic mode, should any of the uncertainty make us concerned about the coaching? This spring is showing a continuation of the production backsliding we saw all through the MLB lineup. I get that 2019 must have been an outlier for some Twins, and that the league may not have adjusted to the whole team approach, but should that really add up to regression in 8 out of nine players at once? Oh, for a larger sample size
  8. ToddlerHarmon
    I don't see it. I count 5 or so guys that could fill out the 8th spot competently, and none of them are named Smeltzer
  9. ToddlerHarmon
    Let's say Arraez has a week (6 games) like this: Starts for Polanco at 2B Starts at 2B, allowing Polanco to start for Simmons at SS Starts for Donaldson at 3B Starts for Kirilloff in LF Starts for Cruz at DH That's five starts in 6 games, which you'll notice is the same as the starts for Polanco, Simmons, Donaldson, Kirilloff, and Cruz. So Arraez replaces a righty 3 days a week, and everyone gets about 135 games, about 500 PA, and lots of rest. It's a great plan to rest our infielders, all of whom have bad wheels one way or another. Is that realistic every week? Maybe not if everyone stays healthy. But if any of the 6 miss two weeks, there's 10 extra starts for someone else. I agree, I don't know how you get Arraez the same at bats as everyone else unless he spends some time at LF or 1B. (Note my guess is they have a similar plan for Rooker, but will only try to get him in the lineup half time)
  10. ToddlerHarmon
    I love this. It gives you something to do with Buxton's speed. It seems to imply Buxton 8, Simmons 9, Arraez 1. I can even go for that, since Buxton has good power, so better to hit him ahead of Simmons.
  11. ToddlerHarmon
    Most center field prospects, if you could guarantee they would have Carlos Gomez' career, you would take that, perhaps grudgingly. If that's where Buxton ends up, that's a damn shame.
  12. ToddlerHarmon
    I tend to agree that Polanco is the obvious bait, but that he might not be enough. Maybe by July, Polanco looks good enough and the Reds look bad enough. All that said, I think Polanco means more to beating the Yankees than another starting pitcher, even a Game 1 starter. It's becoming clear why the front office values the flexibility of Polanco in the infield and Kepler in the outfield, so much so that they were the first extensions handed out. They each play the role of "utility starter", that is, an above average two way starter, who can slide to any other position in the infield and outfield, thus allowing you to have serious bats Arraez and Rooker as "bench" players who actually play frequently, and just cause Polanco and Kepler to move around. It's smart roster construction, and the Twins don't have any replacement for Polanco that allows it until Lewis is ready.
  13. ToddlerHarmon
    I would remove Thorpe from your list, but otherwise I agree
  14. ToddlerHarmon
    Lol, no. If Broxton makes the team, it is as a defensive backup CF. Which we do need. (Plus, there's the 420 feet of not quiet from yesterday)
  15. ToddlerHarmon
    A few nice things to see in that exit velocity top 10: - 8 different players - 6 of whom will be in the starting lineup - that's without Sano - yet
  16. ToddlerHarmon
    TFFL got it in one. Duffey is the fireman already, according to Geek's LI articles
  17. ToddlerHarmon
    It's a trick question, because 1) Rocco doesn't care what I think, and 2) there will not be just one leadoff hitter. That said, I would love for it to be Arraez the most, followed by Polanco. This keeps Donaldson and Cruz at 2 and 3, and puts the two other high on-base guys at the plate as often as possible. Kepler and Buxton have not demonstrated the ability to hit for a high enough average to lead off. An intriguing question is, if you start with Arraez-Donaldson-Cruz, isn't Sano your best bet at cleanup? I know, three righties in a row, but when Sano js hitting, that's three absolute beasts. And can you really say that Kepler or Polanco would be a better choice?
  18. ToddlerHarmon
    Arraez not taking any outfield reps does indeed sound like Kirilloff is the starter in LF. It also sounds like Rooker is the on the roster, and the preferred 4th outfielder. I always assumed "out of left field" meant the ball coming in to the plate to surprisingly prevent you from scoring. Like playing slow pitch catcher and having runners stunned that I had the ball in my glove after that single landed in front of our Division II left fielder.
  19. ToddlerHarmon
    Did they address the lack of baserunners? I'm optimistic about the season, but I worry that we rely on hitting mistake pitches. They are hard to come by in a short series against the top of a playoff staff.
  20. ToddlerHarmon
    Fourth outfielder seems like the biggest hole in the roster right now. Sure, we have Cave, Larnach, and Rooker ready to let Max shift over if Buxton goes down, but that hasn't worked well in the past. Plus, an actual center fielder providing speed off the bench would be great.
  21. ToddlerHarmon
    40 man is getting tight. On the bubble would seem to be Smeltzer, Gibault, Tortuga, Blankenhorn
  22. ToddlerHarmon
    Given what the FO values, this is a good move. I just wish they valued plate discipline a bit more
  23. ToddlerHarmon
    Let's break it down by position vs that 2002 team, per my completely arguable eye test: SS Guzman < Simba C AJ/Prince > garver/jeffers CF Hunter < Buxton 2B Rivas < Polanco 3B Koskie > Donaldson RF Mohr < Kepler LF Jones > Kiriloff 1B Mientkeiwicz > Sano So with all the caveats about age and injury (which Heavily favor the 2002 team), the 2021 team is probably worse in 5 positions, but probably better in 3 of the 4 most important. And the 2021 team plays in a more defense-friendly ballpark with more data-driven approach. So, this team has the potential to be the Twins best since 2000, but I don't think I would bet on it.
  24. ToddlerHarmon
    Love this signing. It's the only thing I've been saying all off-season. I haven't seen this mentioned, but it could also allow for some time with Arraez at first, thus allowing a bit more shifting versus righties. When facing pull-hitting sluggers at Target Field, this could be useful. Also, someone wagged about Cruz could play left with all the defensive protection. Good line, but this seriously makes things easier for 2021 Rookie of the Year Alex Kiriloff.
  25. ToddlerHarmon
    I also wonder why Arraez is being considered expendable by some. Especially considering the Twins' struggles to get on base, even when we were Bombas.
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