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ToddlerHarmon

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Everything posted by ToddlerHarmon

  1. ToddlerHarmon
    So, adding up the damage, we drop: Mejia, Duffey, Busenitz, Curtiss, Reed, and Vargas. We see less projected time from: Hughes, Gibson, and Grossman. More importantly, these are now the guys who step in for injuries or ineffectiveness. Looking at the list, these would have been the highlights of our 2016 pitching staff. So things are looking up.
  2. ToddlerHarmon
    I like these lineups, except maybe that Granite wouldn't be a better choice than Kepler, even against lefties. The other point I would make is that there is a lot of flexibility if someone struggles or takes off. Things won't fall apart from one injury or slump. The potential is tremendous. Buxton, Polanco, and Kepler are all candidates to improve on last year's season numbers dramatically, and be offensive stars. Yet they begin the season as the most likely choices for the 9 hole. Nice.
  3. ToddlerHarmon
    Trying to interpret FanGraphs, he struggled with fastball control last year, but threw the slider more effectively than ever. So either the fastball control comes back and yay, or he becomes a junkballer and meh. But for Palacios, it's hard to imagine this being a big loss for the Twins.
  4. ToddlerHarmon
    I second the call to see where Morris' performance stacks up all time. I'd just like to see the all time list...
  5. ToddlerHarmon
    What strikes me is that Arrieta is only disappointing compared to the high bar he set. These numbers show him to be the cream of this list alongside Yu
  6. ToddlerHarmon
    IMO, the video is impressive not because it reveals Castro pulling, but because it reveals the subtlety of it. He uses the necessary closing of his hand as an opportunity to change his wrist orientation, in the process moving the ball towards the center of the plate, but also bringing it to a dead stop. It left me thinking that if umpires could track the ball well enough for framing to have no impact, well, they would be major league hitters instead.
  7. ToddlerHarmon
    Thank you! Excellent research, and a great look back.
  8. ToddlerHarmon
    Zactly. In order to be meaningful, the stat would have to correlate launch angle/exit velocity with pitches, at the least (pops up four-seamers, chops curveballs, etc.) Then, you would also have to learn whether angle/exit stabilizes over a hitter's career. Do we predict off of a young player's second half, whole season, minor league record? Also, is the stat a good predictor at all? Eyeballing the lists above against baserunning speed, it looks like it might underrate speed's effect on hitting performance, especially for those who hit grounders frequently. Still, an interesting approach with potential. Thanks for the post, Thrylos!
  9. ToddlerHarmon
    They have to be planning for 8 relievers, or a trade, or something.
  10. ToddlerHarmon
    This is an opportunity for Falvine to demonstrate big-picture thinking. It is correct that in 2021, paying Darvish $30M while trying to retain Sano/Buxton/Berrios/Rosario will probably break the annual 50% revenue rule-of-thumb the Pohlads like. However, I'm hoping they pitch to the Pohlads that some years are just going to cost more, and that investments have to spike to maintain a fan base, build future revenue, and remain a desirable destination for big name free agents. So yes, a "market" contract for Darvish will give you tight years, and it will probably result in overpaying the last couple of years. But if it buys you deep playoff runs, sold out stadiums, a better TV deal, the loyalty of young players who want to win, and the occasional signing of ring-chasing veterans, then it more than pays off. In other words, the wisdom of the contract isn't whether it pays off in one player's performance in any given year. It is how it pays off over a long stretch, from a lot of angles.
  11. ToddlerHarmon
    Don't forget that in all his steal attempts, not a single throw beat him to the bag, as his one caught stealing was on an overslide.
  12. ToddlerHarmon
    Nice post. I could have quibbles over who exactly to believe in, but I like the general thrust. Believe in the youth, and look for top line help from outside, not just roster filler. As your WAR analysis shows, there are not many roster disasters, so filler is not improvement. In all, I would take your blueprint over Seth's any day.
  13. ToddlerHarmon
    Knowing that Sano could be a healthy, fit, improving 3B would solve so many issues. Of course, deciding that he won't be those things and should DH instead could allow the Twins to solve those issues too. After next year, we might need to find a good defensive 3B other than Sano. The Twins better make sure that Nick Gordon gets some 3B time in AAA this year.
  14. ToddlerHarmon
    Coming in to the season, Falvine had to consider whether these players would blossom, how long it would take, and whether Molitor was the right guy to make it happen. It happened, in one season, and with visible, measurable in-season improvements in approach, mechanics, and results by several key players: Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, Gibson, Polanco. That only leaves the question of whether the talent could also turn into wins. It did. I don't see how this adds up to anything but a new contract for Molitor.
  15. ToddlerHarmon
    A gimme for the wild card roster. DH him all weekend, with a speed limit running to first of Jim Thome MPH.
  16. ToddlerHarmon
    Woot!
  17. ToddlerHarmon
    I have often heard that sinker ballers like Gibson can be more effective on short rest. Anyone buy that? I do wish Molitor would use tomorow to skip Colon, but at least they are not skipping Mejia so we can see how well he stretches out the next two starts.
  18. ToddlerHarmon
    Your 2019 starting first baseman for the Minnesota Twins: Brent Rooker
  19. ToddlerHarmon
    I agree we should be looking to move Kinsler and Dozier, but I'm not convinced Santana is worth selling, unless we get a great offer. We have control for 2 more years, and it appears likely he will be effective throughout that. The rest of the rotation has plenty of room for auditioning starters, and there's enough already there that next year and 2019 should not be steps back, so he may well be involved in a pennant race. Let's put it this way: if the Twins could sign a front line, 30-something starter to a short term contract over the winter, wouldn't that sound good? So why are we getting rid of one?
  20. ToddlerHarmon
    Rosario still has plenty of time and plenty of upside. If he continues to improve, and hold up his AVG, does he become the Twins' future #3 hitter?
  21. ToddlerHarmon
    Given that he is still very effective in early innings, could he be an effective long reliever/bridge reliever? The twins have numerous starters with difficulty getting through 6 innings. Having another guy to take load off of Duffey could really help right now.
  22. ToddlerHarmon
    Hmm, not sure what to say here. The real data in this post is the contact/hard hit chart, which shows progress in *both* for the last 20 games. It may be a small sample, but it doesn't scream a failing approach. Maybe the rest is all a mind game. Change the timing mechanism and Buxton's focus to contact, just to get him to slow down. If the swing still produces power, does it matter what Buxton thinks he is trying to do? I'd be curious to see a similar chart of LD% or launch angle before panicking. As for trying to "strip" Buxton of one of his 5 tools, if he doesn't have contact, that power tool doesn't matter.
  23. ToddlerHarmon
    Yup. Consistently scoring at least a few runs is one of the sustainable elements of the Twins' success so far. They have stayed top 10 in OBP all year.
  24. ToddlerHarmon
    So if an unteachably great curveball was worth 2 days of draft jujitsu, why is Tyler Duffey not getting a shot at the rotation? - Duffey's agent
  25. ToddlerHarmon
    So good to see these two erase defensive doubts. If the last week or so of Rosario and Buxton continue, look what we have under 27 years old: Grossman Vargas Sano Polanco Rosario Buxton Kepler Yep, 7 starters. Dozier and Castro and Escobar with plenty of productive years left. And Garver, Gordon, Adrianza, Granite, and Palka on the brink. That's a solid lineup now and for years to come. Nice.
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