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ToddlerHarmon

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Everything posted by ToddlerHarmon

  1. ToddlerHarmon
    Nice to see some aggressive May promotions. The Twins often wait for late June.
  2. ToddlerHarmon
    From what we have seen of Perez, we might need a starter, too. Romero is my first choice for either role.
  3. ToddlerHarmon
    I see a few possibilities, besides the likely one that it's just an outlier: 1) Defense at third is worth WAY more than we suspect. I like the odds on this one, because I think we have poor metrics on defense, and a poor theory on how the metrics translate to run prevention and to wins. 2) Large numbers of strikeouts are more damaging than we suspect. I can think of a few examples of teams that outperform expectations by striking out less (recent Royals and Astros champions), but that is anecdotal. 3) Extra-base hits given too much weight in run-creation and win-creation models. RC, the basis of WAR, would seem to account for this. But maybe there are factors (e.g. opportunity cost of outs) that are not well-calculated
  4. ToddlerHarmon
    Not in the camp that thinks we are better off with Marwin. But willing to see a silver lining in that Astudillo gets an extended audition.
  5. ToddlerHarmon
    Maybe Kepler can teach him how to integrate the seven basic ballet moves into his swing.
  6. ToddlerHarmon
    All true, but Gagne may have been the best defender among the regular shortstops. Huge range, and reliable.
  7. ToddlerHarmon
    Considering the lack of contracts to starters after 2019, whatever the Twins do, they must not foreclose on him being part of the 2020 rotation. I expect that by the second half of of 2019, he is either a reliever on a contending Twins team, or a starter on a Twins team that is playing for next year.
  8. ToddlerHarmon
    Excellent work! I'd love to see how this trends over more seasons, but the ranges aren't all over the place. The biggest outliers are small market teams, so clearly doing things differently can provide an edge. The trade silence is starting to show issues as we look at the unbalanced ML and AAA rosters, where we have a backlog of outfielders and free swingers, depth problems with middle infielders, and a shortage of high end pitchers and high-quality contact hitters.
  9. ToddlerHarmon
    Thanks for the research. This is a topic to wonder about, but it is very hard to break the stats away from things like league-wide trends and team talent levels. For example, I always had the impression that Vavra was an effective hitting coach. What does it mean that the 2006 team had the same offense as a less-talented 2012 team? Did he do well in getting the most out of talent? For me, since I root for the Twins to win championships, I am most focused on whether major league coaches get elite performance out of elite talent. It strikes me that our most recent coaches have failed at this, though again it is hard to know whether our belief that we have elite talent is correct.
  10. ToddlerHarmon
    Am I correct that the Twins have ZERO dollars guaranteed to anyone next year (notwithstanding buyouts)? Talk about playing for their jobs. That colors whether we "should" add anyone. This looks like Falvine are ready to see whether the team competes in the first half. If so, add some oomph at the deadline, and expect to pick up options and start signing extensions next year. If not, they can clean out a lot of roster spots, and still keep enough talent to jump-start a rebuild. The roster guess sounds reasonable. I think it's possible for Vasquez, Astudillo, and/or Austin to break camp with the team, with Duffey being the most likely to drop on performance alone. I would like to see Astudillo get a chance, and not just for entertainment. He seems the easiest way to add consistent OBP, which is the missing element in this lineup.
  11. ToddlerHarmon
    Not bad, but maybe if Buxton gets it together, he at least walks enough to have an OBP: Buxton Polanco Rosario Cruz Sano Kepler Cron Castro Schoop
  12. ToddlerHarmon
    Interesting that they are all projected to get 2 year deals in the same price range. Also interesting that none of them blocks any prospects even beyond that window. And who said dumpster-diving? All four are actual talents, with multiple years of proven performance including 2018. The only reason for their affordability is they are part of no one's five year plan. I've seen worse uses of payroll and roster spots in these parts
  13. ToddlerHarmon
    Hmmm Buxton portaging Astudillo. More momentum when he hits the wall, but also more padding. It checks out.
  14. ToddlerHarmon
    Yes, creative, and a good talker, but I only like the Astudillo idea. All of Keplers WAR value is currently due to being a good outfielder, so you're going to move him to a spot that demands more offense and less defense? May is too good and needed where he is to mess with. Plus with 2 years of his prime lost to injury, relief would give him a better career. And Romero is too young with too much stuff to give up on him starting. If other options develop for outfield or relief pitching, or if Romero fails to develop as a starter, then maybe. But right now each of these players has the potential to be the best on the team at their current position. Why short-circuit that?
  15. ToddlerHarmon
    Only an 18 hour road trip away...
  16. ToddlerHarmon
    I like this skeptical look at the Twins. I have hope still for Sano, Buxton, Kepler, and Polanco, but they have to establish themselves consistently at a high level this year. Assume Rosario and Garver will be ok. Even then you need a shortstop (Polanco to 2B), first, and DH. Gordon, Rooker, and Cave? Possible, but it will be painful for all this year, Gordon is not looking like a future starter or a glove-first backup, and Cave probably doesn't have that much offense in him. Basically, this year is where we find out whether Lewis and Kiriloff complete the picture in 2020, or whether they are the reset button. Scary stuff.
  17. ToddlerHarmon
    I agree with many of the commenters that any near-term success depends on Buxton and Sano turning things around. However, it is not a reasonable expectation for that to happen in 2019. That situation will be better understood at the end of this year, so I endorse planning around 2020 and beyond. As to trading Kepler, the other thing we hope to see this year is better instruction and coaching at the major league level. That is essential for ever getting Sano and Buxton right, but it might also salvage Kepler, whose only flaw is that his contact is too soft.
  18. ToddlerHarmon

    Lollygagging?

    ToddlerHarmon commented on ashbury's blog entry in Left Coast Bias

    I'd call that a mistake on Dozier's part. Laziness? Not really, IMO.
  19. ToddlerHarmon
    We have a catcher in Rochester with a 2% K rate who cam pick runners off first without looking, and he's blocked by Bobby Wilson?
  20. ToddlerHarmon
    Nothing more adventurous, like replacing Grossman or Wilson, or Adrianza out instead of Petit? I think the Twins need to be bolder if they are going to make that leap.
  21. ToddlerHarmon
    Based on stats, how does this not go to Tyler Duffey?
  22. ToddlerHarmon
    As others have commented, they seem to be holding a chair open in case an infielder hits the waiver wire in the next few days. Is Profar a possibility?
  23. ToddlerHarmon
    Incredible story, well done!
  24. ToddlerHarmon
    The eye test says Rosario's a good candidate for number 3 hitter: great contact, good power, decent speed Also, if you look at 2017 season stats, you have the following top Twins hitters: AVG: Mauer, Rosario, Dozier, Sano OBP: Mauer, Dozier, Sano, Morrison SLG: Morrison, Rosario, Sano, Dozier That's right, there are only 5 hitters on the Twins covering the top 4 of all three triple-slash categories. Seems pretty obvious who the top 5 in the lineup should be. With Rosario's potential for a high average with power, he seems the likeliest #3 of these.
  25. ToddlerHarmon
    I disagree about Granite vs. Grossman on the bench. Grossman can allow any of 4 lefties to sit vs LHP, and is stronger as a RH, especially at getting on base. Now, if it comes time to replace a starting oufielder due to injury, Granite is definitely your guy. Especially because Adrianza already provides some speed off the bench.
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