Chris Hanel

Image courtesy of © Troy Taormina-Imagn Images There was a time, not so long ago, that the Minnesota Twins fanbase knew only one outcome. For close to two decades, no amount of momentum or excellence could counter the brick wall that awaited them in the postseason. Eighteen consecutive times, the Twins threw all they had at that wall. They chipped, scraped, clawed, and flung themselves at it. In so many moments, it looked like they were through. But in the end, they were left unable to breach it, and in the aftermath, we were left scarred by the futility of it all. Subsequently, even in the brightest moments of the regular season, the joy to be found was tinged with a sadness that it was only temporary. ‘Buy-in’ wasn’t feasible anymore, when even the mightiest lineups could be left without answers as soon as the postseason began. How can you get excited about a franchise when it seems to be governed by a completely different set of natural laws in October? And then, 2023 happened. It was glorious, that brief moment in time. Twins players, some homegrown heroes, finally seemed to acknowledge how this ignominy had affected the fans, and responded by righteously seizing the moment. Pablo López reminded us how to believe in Minnesota. Royce Lewis put the offense on his back. Carlos Correa served as the defensive linchpin we knew him to be, and Jhoan Duran violently shut the door on the Toronto Blue Jays as the stadium lost its mind. It was a cleansing catharsis. We sobbed tears of relief we didn’t even remember we had in reserve. We saw with our own eyes what we refused to believe for so long: that victory was possible. And not just once, or twice, but three times! The Twins walked onto Target Field having split the first two games in Houston, possessing home-field advantage, and actually internalizing the idea that in the end, a path was laid in front of us all that didn’t lead to heartbreak. No, the 2023 Twins didn’t bring home a trophy. But out of that ordeal, we were given a gift that might be just as valuable: being unburdened, by the notion that October baseball didn’t come with a pre-ordained outcome. A resurgent team, a beautiful ballpark, a fanbase reinvigorated, and an organization primed to continue their hot hand. The wave that had gathered momentum since the hiring of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine in 2016 had finally reached its crest, and breached the first barrier that had stood since 2004. With that milestone achieved, Joe Pohlad and his kin were given the easiest layup in sports. That they could see the Minnesota Twins ascend to unprecedented heights, if they simply stayed the course and allowed the current that had carried them that far to continue pushing them forward. But we would know the Pohlads’ feelings on the matter just weeks later. Any further progress would be on indefinite hold, in order to get the balance sheets in order, and ‘right-sizing’ was the watchword of the day. Now, 20 months later, with nearly half the roster sold and the franchise all but certain to follow, the fallout of that choice has been realized. It's another sad chapter in the story that’s unfolded since that brief window of euphoria. Having been starved for financial support and paralyzed by a possible sale, Falvey has built a major-league roster that is now a shadow of its former peak. Bringing Correa to Minnesota and securing his long-term future was undoubtedly the signature achievement of the Twins front office, something Falvey could point to as proof that his mission was to not settle for playing the role of a small-market underdog. But surely, the game plan was that reinforcements would be needed to support the largest free-agent deal in franchise history, rather than serving as the final piece needed for contention. Now, a salary dump sending Correa back to the Astros serves as a depressing bookend to the Josh Donaldson fiasco, a move which helped free the resources to bring Correa to town in the first place. Along with Correa, nine other players have been shipped to every corner of the league, and the quotes from current and former players alike have taken a sour tone. Rocco Baldelli’s clubhouse has never been a safe harbor for toxicity, but one has to believe he has the hardest test of his managerial tenure in front of him to close out this lost season. Was this flurry of trades the right decision from a strategic perspective? Divorced from the emotion of the moment, I’m sure a strong argument is there. Many words have already been spilled on the core pieces that remain, the impermanence of what was lost, and how none of this should be regarded as a true rebuild. But I cannot shake the feeling that as the 2025 season is written off, we have had one very hard lesson dumped at our collective feet: The pain that we feel now was worth the money to someone else. [Ed. note: Chris posted this on his blog here at TD, initially. We're moving it to the front page, with his permission, but go check out his work in that section, too.] View full article

There was a time, not so long ago, that the Minnesota Twins fanbase knew only one outcome. For close to two decades, no amount of momentum or excellence could counter the brick wall that awaited them in the postseason. 18 consecutive times, the Twins threw all they had at that wall. They chipped, scraped, clawed, and flung themselves at it. In so many moments, it looked like they were through. But in the end, they were left unable to breach it. And in the aftermath, we were left scarred by the futility of it all. Subsequently, even in the brightest moments of the regular season, the joy to be found was tinged with a sadness that it was only temporary. ‘Buy-in’ wasn’t feasible anymore when even the mightiest lineups could be left without answers as soon as the postseason began. How can you get excited about a franchise when it seems to be governed by a completely different set of laws in October? And then, 2023 happened. It was glorious, that brief moment in time. Twins players, some homegrown heroes, finally seemed to acknowledge how this ignominy had affected the fans, and responded by righteously seizing the moment. Pablo Lopez reminded us how to believe in Minnesota. Royce Lewis put the offense on his back. Carlos Correa served as the defensive linchpin we knew him to be, and Jhoan Duran violently shut the door on the Toronto Blue Jays as the stadium lost its mind in a cleansing catharsis. We sobbed tears of relief we didn’t even remember we had in reserve. We saw with our own eyes what we refused to believe for so long, that victory was possible. And not just once, or twice, but three times! The Twins walked onto Target Field having split the first two games in Houston, possessing home field advantage, and actually internalizing the idea that in the end, a path was laid in front of us all that didn’t lead to heartbreak. No, the 2023 Twins didn’t bring home a trophy. But out of that ordeal, we were given a gift that might be just as valuable: being unburdened by the notion that October baseball didn’t come with a pre-ordained outcome. A resurgent team, a beautiful ballpark, a fanbase reinvigorated, and an organization primed to continue their hot hand. The wave that had gathered momentum since the hiring of Falvey and Levine in 2016 had finally reached its crest, and breached the first barrier that had stood since 2004. With that milestone achieved, Joe Pohlad and his kin were given the easiest layup in sports with the proposition that they could see the Minnesota Twins ascend to unprecedented heights, if they simply just stayed the course and allowed the current that had carried them this far to continue pushing them forward. But we would know the Pohlads’ feelings on the matter just weeks later. Any further progress would be on indefinite hold in order to get the balance sheets in order, and ‘right-sizing’ was the watchword of the day. And now, 18 months later, with nearly half the roster sold and the franchise all but certain to follow, the fallout of that choice has been realized, another sad chapter in the story that’s unfolded since that brief window of euphoria. Having been starved for financial support and paralyzed further by a possible sale, the major league roster is now a shadow of its former peak. Bringing Carlos Correa to Minnesota and securing his long-term future was undoubtedly the signature achievement of the Twins front office, something Falvey could point to as proof that his mission was to not settle for playing the role of a small market underdog. But surely, the game plan was that reinforcements would be needed in order to support the largest free agency deal in franchise history, rather than serving as the final piece needed for contention. Now, a salary dump sending Correa back to the Astros serves as a depressing bookend to the Josh Donaldson fiasco, a move which helped free the resources to bring Correa to town in the first place. Along with Correa, nine other players have been shipped to every corner of the league, and the quotes from current and former players alike have taken a sour tone. Rocco’s clubhouse has never been a safe harbor for toxicity, but one has to believe he has the hardest test of his managerial tenure in front of him to close out this lost season. Was this flurry of trades the right decision from a strategic perspective? Divorced from the emotion of the moment, I’m sure a strong argument is there. Many words have already been spilled on the core pieces that remain, the impermanence of what was lost, and how none of this should be regarded as a true rebuild. But I cannot shake the feeling that as the 2025 season is written off, we have had one very hard lesson dumped at our collective feet: The pain that we feel now was worth the money to someone else.

It's easy to have hope when all is in front of you, and there's nothing left to lose. Image courtesy of © Chris Tilley-Imagn Images [Ed. note: Chris Hanel, who is probably familiar to many of you as a member of our community and blogger already, graciously allowed us to pull this piece out to the front page from his blog on the site, so we can share it more widely. We hope you enjoy it. Here's the original blog post, for completism's sake.] The 2025 Twins stand at an intoxicating crossroads. And no, I do not include the Pohlads in this equation - I'm referring to whichever 26 players end up being asked to bear the burden of taking this team to the postseason over the next few months, payroll and franchise financials be damned. Given the status of things, this should logically be a rebuilding year. In fact, let's take stock of recent events- after putting to bed the cruelest streak in sports, and finding themselves with the greatest opportunity in 30 years(!) to seize the fanbase's imagination, the decision was made to not only *refuse* to do so, but to instead lower the current team's payroll, and ensure a regression in their fortunes. It was, without argument, the greatest subversion of anticipation that I can recall in my lifetime as a sports fan. It is the franchise equivalent of self-harm - to actively shrink away from the responsibility of healing the trauma of the Twins fanbase. To reject this call was to deny the very reason one should have for bothering to own a team in the first place. To take the promise we had all collectively tasted for the first time since 2004 and instead poison it, cementing the acid in our veins we had generated through our fandom, rather than exorcise it once and for all. These decisions helped to sow the seeds for what we saw transpire in 2024. A promising squad who knew the quality of their craft. Flashes of brilliance that refused to stay buried, even if they could sometimes be lost in the quagmire that was the unyielding streakiness plaguing the roster. Royce Lewis naively proclaiming that he "didn't do slumps", only to be patiently reminded by the fates that he, too, wasn't immune to misfortune. The constant roll of the dice that was the health of the team's core. And once again, a roster that only needed the support of the Pohlads to ensure the cavalry would arrive when needed - only to find, come the trade deadline, that reinforcements were not coming through the clubhouse door. The burden would be fully placed on the shoulders of an already depleted staff to carry our hopes across the finish line, and it didn't matter how obvious it was that it wouldn't be enough - that was the end of it, in more ways than one. The collapse that followed was gargantuan. In many ways, it was undeserved. None of this should have even been on the table. And yet, it transpired in the open for all of us to experience. And then, weeks later, those responsible announced it was time for them to wash their hands of it all by placing the team on the auction block. Where does that leave the Twins in 2025? The fanbase? The players? It's an impossible question when there's no telling who the absentee landlords will be replaced with or when that substitution will happen. Can you be excited about a squad when you know, deep inside, that there is every reason that its construction should be better than it is, if not for a refusal from the owners to do the bare minimum? How do you cheer for a team when to do so is to accept the cynicism and banality that is the cravenness of professional sports in the 21st century? But if I could ask one thing of you, it would be to attempt to shut out the noise that capitalism screams at us in this day and age, and think about what's possible with the players and coaches already here. To read FanGraphs and understand what the numbers suggest is possible - if not probable - for the Twins in 2025 is to be provoked to get one's hopes up again. To foresee a year where the pitching is dominant, the lineup rises to the heights that we already know is within reach, and where October baseball isn't just a thin layer of icing on an already flimsy layer cake. It feels strange to try and aggregate how the world feels about this team in this moment. The fanbase is (rightly) agitated over the limbo the organization currently finds itself in, preventing it from moving forward. The pitching staff (and especially the bullpen) are projected to be one of the best in baseball, while power rankings still plunge the Twins to as far down as the bottom third of the league. It's enough to send one hurtling deep into a bleak emotional spiral, but only if you haven't already been down this road many times before. Because, honestly, this location is the address where Twins Territory has lived for more years than I can remember. A team everyone seems to understand is capable of wonderful things, but refuses to come to the consensus that those things are likely to ever happen. It is a battle I find myself in as spring training starts its trudge towards the regular season. As a former poker player, I am reminded of a thought exercise I was taught to help combat the frustrations of losing a big hand - Look at your chip stack. Look at your cards. Forget what just happened and how well you were doing before this moment. Imagine in the previous hand that instead of losing, you just doubled up, and that you are in twice as good of a position as you were before. How would you feel in that moment? Because the numbers match exactly the situation you're saddled with in real life. Think and play as if you've just doubled up, and if you truly have the skills to do so, you'll do just fine. The Twins have the pieces to astound a lot of observers. It'll require some luck and unexpected consistency, but there is no reason to believe such an outcome isn't in its grasp. I might be guilty of rose-colored glasses, but I would forever prefer that to any other perspective. Here's to 2025, and this roster of neglected misfits running roughshod over the expectations of all who dare to believe that they aren't capable of great things. They have at least one believer in their cheering section, and I hope that number is far greater than myself. If one cannot believe that this is the year, then I don't understand the point of baseball. View full article

It's easy to have hope when all is in front of you, and there's nothing left to lose. The 2025 Twins stand at an intoxicating crossroads. And no, I do not include the Pohlads in this equation - I'm referring to whichever 26 players end up being asked to bear the burden of taking this team to the postseason over the next few months, payroll and franchise financials be damned. Given the status of things, this should logically be a rebuilding year. In fact, let's take stock of recent events- after putting to bed the cruelest streak in sports, and finding themselves with the greatest opportunity in 30 years(!) to seize the fanbase's imagination, the decision was made to not only *refuse* to do so, but to instead lower the current team's payroll, and ensure a regression in their fortunes. It was, without argument, the greatest subversion of anticipation that I can recall in my lifetime as a sports fan. It is the franchise equivalent of self-harm - to actively shrink away from the responsibility of healing the trauma of the Twins fanbase. To reject this call was to deny the very reason one should have for bothering to own a team in the first place. To take the promise we had all collectively tasted for the first time since 2004 and instead poison it, cementing the acid in our veins we had generated through our fandom, rather than exorcise it once and for all. These decisions helped to sow the seeds for what we saw transpire in 2024. A promising squad who knew the quality of their craft. Flashes of brilliance that refused to stay buried, even if they could sometimes be lost in the quagmire that was the unyielding streakiness plaguing the roster. Royce Lewis naively proclaiming that he "didn't do slumps", only to be patiently reminded by the fates that he, too, wasn't immune to misfortune. The constant roll of the dice that was the health of the team's core. And once again, a roster that only needed the support of the Pohlads to ensure the cavalry would arrive when needed - only to find, come the trade deadline, that reinforcements were not coming through the clubhouse door. The burden would be fully placed on the shoulders of an already depleted staff to carry our hopes across the finish line, and it didn't matter how obvious it was that it wouldn't be enough - that was the end of it, in more ways than one. The collapse that followed was gargantuan. In many ways, it was undeserved. None of this should have even been on the table. And yet, it transpired in the open for all of us to experience. And then, weeks later, those responsible announced it was time for them to wash their hands of it all by placing the team on the auction block. Where does that leave the Twins in 2025? The fanbase? The players? It's an impossible question when there's no telling who the absentee landlords will be replaced with or when that substitution will happen. Can you be excited about a squad when you know, deep inside, that there is every reason that its construction should be better than it is, if not for a refusal from the owners to do the bare minimum? How do you cheer for a team when to do so is to accept the cynicism and banality that is the cravenness of professional sports in the 21st century? But if I could ask one thing of you, it would be to attempt to shut out the noise that capitalism screams at us in this day and age, and think about what's possible with the players and coaches already here. To read FanGraphs and understand the numbers suggest is possible - if not probable - for the Twins in 2025 is to be provoked to get one's hopes up again. To foresee a year where the pitching is dominant, the lineup rises to the heights that we already know is within reach, and where October baseball isn't just a thin layer of icing on an already flimsy layer cake. It feels strange to try and aggregate how the world feels about this team in this moment. The fanbase is (rightly) agitated over the limbo the organization currently finds itself in, preventing it from moving forward. The pitching staff (and especially the bullpen) are projected to be one of the best in baseball, while power rankings still plunge the Twins to as far down as the bottom third of the league. It's enough to send one hurtling deep into a bleak emotional spiral, but only if you haven't already been down this road many times before. Because, honestly, this location is the address where Twins Territory has lived for more years than I can remember. A team everyone seems to understand is capable of wonderful things, but refuses to come to the consensus that those things are likely to ever happen. It is a battle I find myself in as spring training starts its trudge towards the regular season. As a former poker player, I am reminded of a thought exercise I was taught to help combat the frustrations of losing a big hand - Look at your chip stack. Look at your cards. Forget what just happened and how well you were doing before this moment. Imagine in the previous hand that instead of losing, you just doubled up, and that you are in twice as good of a position as you were before. How would you feel in that moment? Because the numbers match exactly the situation you're saddled with in real life. Think and play as if you've just doubled up, and if you truly have the skills to do so, you'll do just fine. The Twins have the pieces to astound a lot of observers. It'll require some luck and unexpected consistency, but there is no reason to believe such an outcome isn't in its grasp. I might be guilty of rose-colored glasses, but I would forever prefer that to any other perspective. Here's to 2025, and this roster of neglected misfits running roughshod over the expectations of all who dare to believe that they aren't capable of great things. They have at least one believer in their cheering section, and I hope that number is far greater than myself. If one cannot believe that this is the year, then I don't understand the point of baseball.

I didn't wanna see him go in 2018. While I sat at home watching the Twins play on a perfect Minnesota night in September, Mauer came to the plate in the bottom of the 5th inning against the nemesis New York Yankees, and the ingredients were in place for this at-bat to be something special. The Twins were up 6-1 and the bases were loaded, and everyone watching knew Joe Mauer had exactly one thing on his mind: taking the first pitch, which he did, for a ball. Because that was Joe's process. A quiet, understated patience that drove pitchers to frustration and subtly nudged umpires to up their game. Without saying a word, he communicated to his opponent that he was going to force him to deliver a pitch he could hit. This was also evident in the broadcast booth, as Mauer's old teammate, Justin Morneau, commented on what we were about to see with just a tinge of excitement in his voice. "I'll be surprised if Joe swings early, and I'll be surprised if he swings at anything out of the zone." Joe took another pitch, a 96 mph fastball which caught the corner for a strike. Joe barely reacted while he kicked the dirt and began setting up for the next pitch. It was then that Morneau said something which made me catch my breath. Upon Dick Bremer remarking that Mauer's average with RISP was still 5th in the league despite having dipped a bit, Morneau offered more than just platitudes: he offered an opinion. "And that's the part that tells me he still has something left in the tank - he still should continue to play baseball when he can come through in those situations." With Mauer's future uncertain and his contract coming to a close, this felt like a papal decree. For Justin Morneau, one of Mauer's closest friends, to make a statement like that during a broadcast?! Surely he would know what Mauer was planning for the future and wouldn't comment otherwise, right? Mauer took his third consecutive pitch for another strike on the outside edge, making it 1-2. "Come on, Joe! Swing at 'em!" someone shouted from the stands. Joe stepped out of the box and calmly looked around, resetting his focus and taking a big breath before watching the 4th pitch hit the dirt, and the 5th pitch follow right behind for a full count. 5 pitches, and the crowd was beginning to buzz without Joe ever taking the bat off his shoulder. "This is what Joe Mauer does, he makes you throw him something that he wants to hit." And so it was, on this crisp autumn night, as Yankees pitcher Tommy Kahnle grooved a fastball directly down the center of the strike zone. and Joe Mauer let loose all the energy that he'd been holding in reserve up until that point. Dick Bremer was immediately on the mic. "A high blast to center field! Going back is Hicks!" "Go ahead, ball!" implored Roy Smalley. "That ball is GONE, a grand slam!" The only swing that Joe Mauer made was a no-doubter, and Target Field let their appreciation for their hometown kid be known. Sitting in my office with my dog asleep on my lap, it was all I could do to raise my arms in silent appreciation. He's still got it. He's still my guy. "Like I said, there's plenty left in the tank right there. That's fun to watch," Morneau repeated. From his mouth to the front office's ears, I thought. I didn't wanna see him go. But baseball isn't a scripted narrative, and life doesn't revolve around sports, despite how much we believe it to be true. Mauer would take his final curtain call at catcher a few weeks later, while I tried to convince myself that this was simply him hedging his bets - this was just in case things didn't work out when he'd come back to the team to talk about a short extension. The lies we knowingly tell ourselves when the truth would be too painful. Joe Mauer's legacy is one that is almost amusing in its stubborn adherence to form: an understated stature that loomed large when it needed to, never flashy, and knowing what was needed at the right time. In 2018, Mauer knew that it was time to be a dad, looking back on his career and deeming it a fine enough journey to be proud of. Later today, Joe Mauer will get the delicious icing of finding out that the baseball world wholeheartedly agrees with that assessment with his election to the Hall of Fame. A perfect ending to the career of an unassuming kid who, throughout it all, let his patience do the talking. Here's to you, Joe.

Thank you for your SCALDING HOT TAKES on unions, which- while wrong, gross, and boot-flavored- have nothing to do with my point. Millar's 'legacy' as a 'pioneer' involved being a scab. That's not opinion, that's fact. That this article engages in revisionist history by completely ignoring that is dubious on the best of days.

"Not only will Millar be a Saint forever, but he also leaves a legacy behind that helped pioneer a path to the Majors for independent league players who go undrafted." That path being "cross picket lines to be a replacement player and forever be ineligible to join the MLBPA"?

That video hurts to watch. Incredibly sad to see him throwing a blind sucker punch like that. Also, thank god that kick whiffed completely.

I might love the Twins, and defend them even during some of the darkest times, but that also means being honest even when it hurts. That kind of tough love was exactly what came to mind when Tyler Duffey used his relief appearance in a close contest to 'send a message' by throwing behind Yermin Mercedes on only the fourth pitch of his appearance. Everyone seemed to know it was coming. Tony La Russa, fresh from using his media time all but telling the Twins they *should* bean Mercedes, had a conversation with the umpiring crew before the incident, likely warning them what was to come. Rookie Twins pitcher Bailey Ober was making his debut that evening, and wasn't going to spoil his first start in the majors by getting involved. But now, with Ober done for the night, Duffey in, and Mercedes up to the plate with 1 out, the ingredients were there. And then, it happened. This, in a not-so-polite word, was chicken****. For a long time, when other teams or crusty veterans have crowed about 'playing the white right way' or unwritten rules, I've been able to take solace in the fact that the Twins haven't engaged in similar grandstanding since the Falvine era started, and that the roster was young, diverse, and helping usher in a new era of enjoying baseball and reveling in the emotion. There have been a few speed bumps along the way. Sure, the broadcasters aren't in the clubhouse, but you were sure to hear a lot about what wasn't okay when Bert Blyleven or Jack Morris were in the analyst seat, and Dan Gladden has used his presence on the radio to show his age from time to time. In terms of the actual team, Paul Molitor was never likely to put on a "Let the Kids Play" hoodie, and Brian Dozier got in on the action once with a take so cold that it's a strong candidate to host the next Winter Olympics. But overall, in this most recent era, Rocco's clubhouse has been loose and positive, with none of the toxic tantrums that still plague the sport decades after it should have gone out of style. Intentional HBP's felt alien. You could feel good about cheering on this team if you cared about that sort of thing. Well, Tyler Duffey put a 93 MPH fastball-shaped dent in that argument with his retaliation, and nobody comes out of this looking good except for the White Sox players more or less in open revolt over their own manager's caveman philosophies. Willians Astudillo's fuming on the mound after the initial home run (Willians! One of the most enjoyable players to spectate in baseball! Chirping about unwritten rules! What is the world coming to?!), Duffey's willingness to jeopardize a close game (and definitely get ejected) when the bullpen desperately needs to turn things around... and I understand that Rocco Baldelli's job is to have his players' backs, but to use the rain and say "our plan was to pitch him inside" as an excuse and feign innocence over any malicious intent feels awful to hear coming out of his mouth. I mean, just say that Duffey got distracted because he thought he saw a raccoon behind home plate. Or maybe it was a rat, he couldn't be sure. None of this had to happen. Nobody would have thought of the Twins as pushovers or weak had they not decided to exact vengeance. Tony La Russa saw the opportunity to seize all the negative attention from Mercedes's dinger and did so with both hands. Why Rocco, Duffey, Astudillo, or anyone else involved didn't allow him to enjoy that time to himself is baffling to me- Especially when every Twin Cities sportswriter with a hot take to conjure up and column inches to fill needs a reason to complain about the team that doesn't feel like a retread. Well, you gave it to them in spades. And that's on you. It's not enough to play better, Twins. Please *be* better.

If you're expected to win, and then fail to do so in spectacular fashion, people are going to have thoughts. It's also safe to assume that those thoughts don't stay surface level for very long. For the 2021 Twins, the last few weeks have been a long trudge past the acceptance of things as they are, and have begun to approach the next station down the line: Why? "Why" is an important question that has consumed the game of baseball since its creation. It is a question that drives everyone involved in the game and almost everyone that follows it. Careers are made and broken attempting to answer it. Out of all the major spectator sports in the world, baseball is one of the most random, volatile, and unpredictable. The best team in the league facing off against the worst still isn't as heavy a favorite as you might expect. This makes answering the question even more important. But this game has been played for over a century, and despite front offices being invaded by every Ivy League sabermatrician with programming experience, there's a lot about the game that just cannot be accounted for. It is within this vacuum that narrative begins to form, and like a gas, expand to fill every available inch of social media. Our emotional investment in the Twins demands an attempt to make sense of a senseless sequence. Words like "implosion" don't feel adequate, because it doesn't do justice to how much it feels like it's a force being inflicted upon the team, rather than the results of internal motivations. Regardless, we try and take an inventory of what hurts, and search for accountability. Is the roster underperforming? Unquestionably. I can't recall ever seeing so much of a single roster falling to the bottom 20% of their preseason projections with such synchrony. Are the Twins seeing their share of injuries? Yes, and then some. Are the Twins unlucky? According to the stats, they're the unluckiest in the league, and have a lot of production stats in common with the Oakland A's, who have more wins than the Twins have losses. Everything is happening, it's all bad, and it's happening all at once. And then, to rub salt in the wound, the White Sox got hot. They started their rebuild later, they were on a trajectory to give the Twins a bit more time to contend, and then they leapfrogged them in the standings while destroying them mercilessly along the way. They're doing this while also suffering from their best players sidelined and being managed by a guy who started his pro ball career when John F. Kennedy was in office, and hasn't updated his worldview since. Where the Twins are punished for their faults, the White Sox seem to glide through life. As a Twins fan, this was supposed to be our time, and the spotlight got stolen by the worst possible division rival. Watching all this transpire, attempting to process it, you're left holding the bag and being asked to put a nice neat bow on a morass of misfortune. Unable to wrap your arms around it, the narrative becomes more and more tempting. "The coaches are too calm, they need to fire up this team and yell more!" "Rocco's lost the clubhouse, it's time to fire him." "The players don't want it enough!" Any time you hear missives like these, and they aren't accompanied by direct evidence from the clubhouse or a credible source, Colin Cowherd-sized alarm bells should start going off in your head. You are being asked to accept generalities to rationalize a giant sea of inexplicable fate. Explaining data points by assuming the motives of strangers is a task that should be reserved for criminal profilers, not Twins Twitter. Kenta Maeda isn't struggling because of some nebulous lack of leadership, it's because he's lost the ability to locate his slider. There's a notable clip from ESPN's First Take in 2012, when Mark Cuban came onto the show, and used every available moment to go after Skip Bayless and his notions of 'narrative'. Throughout the exchange, Cuban lays out his argument for why statements like how the one team "played harder" aren't worth the airtime they're eventually given- because they're not backed up by any meaningful data and are fueled by apathy at best, and intentional ignorance at worst. If you want to convince me how the Twins got to 13-26 and have someone to blame, you're going to have to do a lot more than sell me on a lack of motivation, clubhouse chemistry, or some kind of failing strategic approach, because in the words of Kronk, it doesn't make any sense. Baseball is a cruel game. You can assemble the same roster and play the same way, and end up with radically different results by the end of the season. I have a hard time finding obvious fatal flaws in the approach by the front office, management, or the players themselves. Sure, I'll always agree that ownership could stand to spend some more money, but a few million dollars doesn't magically repair Byron Buxton's hamstring, and it doesn't solve why any game that doesn't go exactly 9 innings becomes an automatic loss. I'm not angry at the team, the coaches, or the FO. I'm just sad. This roster- and by extension, this fanbase- deserves better than the hand they've been dealt, right as the window of contention seemed to be opening wide (and, by some accounts, ahead of schedule). And now, after six weeks of unprecedented horror- which is saying something for a team with this kind of history- the voices are growing louder that it's time to pack it in and start over from scratch. All that said, I'm going to continue rooting for this team. They clearly want it enough. The clubhouse knows what they're capable of, and would love the opportunity to showcase it, if fate and luck would just get out of the goddamn way. In the meantime, I'll be watching, and screaming into the nearest pillow every time a barreled ball goes straight at an opposing fielder. The Twins are dead. Long live the Twins.

Yes, the number in the title is not an exaggeration. The true odds of the moment we find ourselves in at the close of the Twins 2020 postseason campaign, brief as it was, comes to one in 69 billion. Somewhere in the galaxy, Zaphod Beeblebrox fired up the Improbability drive and Minnesota got caught in the wake. Let's do some math, shall we? Setting a baseline Now, there's a very good chance you've seen the number 262,144 floating around Twins Twitter in the last day or two, and that's because if you were to flip a coin 18 times, the odds of each flip resulting in the same outcome are 262,144:1 against, or 218. Already, this feels bad. This feels unfair. We want to fight against this statistic. BASEBALL GAMES AREN'T COIN FLIPS, I hear you cry out. So many of those games were as underdogs against the almighty Yankees, surely the odds weren't THAT bad? And yeah, from that perspective, you'd be correct. @Awoodruff3 on Twitter looked at the problem from a gambling odds perspective: 28,524:1 against! Already, this is 10 times as likely as the coin flip scenario, so the sting should only be a fraction of what we currently feel, right? Sadly, no. Here's how it really breaks down. The Methodology I have gone into the FanGraphs archives for each of the 18 games in the losing streak and made note of the moment in time where the Twins had the highest expected win probability. At some point during 17 of the 18 games, the Twins were favored to win - and in a few cases, extremely favored - before eventually taking the L. With that information, we can look at the odds of losing from these moments where the Twins had the greatest amount of leverage to create a future other than the ones we find ourselves in now. Oct. 6, 2004: ALDS Game 2 [table] Game State Bottom 12th, 1 out, Twins ahead by 1 at New York Twins Win Probability 87.3% How'd things look? With Joe Nathan on the mound for his third inning of work, John Olerud strikes out and the Twins are 2 outs away from taking a 2-0 lead in the series. What happened? Nathan gives consecutive walks before A-Rod hits a ground rule double, followed by an intentional walk and a Matsui sac fly to win. Odds of a loss 7.87:1 against[/table] Oct. 8, 2004: ALDS Game 3 [table] Game State Top 2nd, 2 outs, Twins ahead by 1 vs. New York Twins Win Probability 64.5% How'd things look? Carlos Silva gets a ground ball out from Bernie Williams. It's still early, but teams in the lead tend to stay in the lead. What happened? Silva immediately gave up 5 consecutive singles and 3 runs before the 2nd inning was over, and the Twins never saw daylight again. Odds of a 2-game losing streak 22:1 against[/table] Oct. 9, 2004: ALDS Game 4 [table] Game State Bottom 7, 0 outs, Twins ahead by 4 vs. New York Twins Win Probability 97.0%(!) How'd things look? A-Rod concludes a 1-2-3 inning in the top of the 7th by fouling out to first base. The Twins have retired 9 straight batters. What happened? Yankees tie the game in the top of the 8th on an RBI single and a 3-run homer, game goes to extra innings, Yankees take the lead in the 11th, Twins fans begin to wonder if this is the start of something dire. (Narrator: It is.) Odds of a 3-game losing streak 739:1 against[/table] Oct. 3, 2006: ALDS Game 1 [table] Game State Bottom 1, 0 outs, tie game vs. Oakland Twins Win Probability 58.3% How'd things look? Luis Castillo leads off for the Twins with a walk. This would be as good as it got. What happened? Frank Thomas homers to take the lead in the 2nd, and despite the Twins making things interesting in the bottom of the 8th, they would never be favored again. Odds of a 4-game losing streak 1,773:1 against[/table] Oct. 4, 2006: ALDS Game 2 [table] Game State Bottom 6, 0 outs, tie game vs. Oakland Twins Win Probability 57.6% How'd things look? Down 2, the Twins start the bottom of the 6th with consecutive homers by Cuddy and Morneau to tie the game, and Oakland goes to the bullpen. What happened? Oakland responds in the 7th with 2 runs off an inside the park home run. Odds of a 5-game losing streak 4,181:1 against[/table] Oct. 6, 2006: ALDS Game 3 [table] Game State Top 2, 0 outs, tie game at Oakland Twins Win Probability 56.3% How'd things look? Morneau opens the 2nd with a double, with Torii Hunter on deck. What happened? Morneau doesn't score, Oakland opens up a 4-0 lead, and eventually win 8-3. Odds of a 6-game losing streak 9,569:1 against[/table] Oct. 7, 2009: ALDS Game 1 [table] Game State Top 3, 2 outs, Twins ahead by 2 at New York Twins Win Probability 68.7% How'd things look? Twins take a 2-0 lead when Joe Mauer scores on a Jorge Posada passed ball What happened? Yankees immediately tie the game on a Derek Jeter home run, and the Twins never score again. Yankees win 7-2. Odds of a 7-game losing streak 30,571:1 against[/table] Oct. 9, 2009: ALDS Game 2 [table] Game State Top 9, 0 outs, Twins ahead by 2 at New York Twins Win Probability 91.7% How'd things look? After the Twins take a 2 run lead in the top of the 8th, the Yankees go down 1-2-3, and Joe Mauer comes to the plate to open the 9th. What happened? Yankees tie it up in the bottom of the 9th, Joe Mauer hits a double in the 11th that Phil Cuzzi incorrectly rules foul, and settles for a single- only to be followed by 2 consecutive singles that would have scored him had the double stood. Instead, Mauer doesn't score, Yankees walk it off on a Mark Teixeira homer, and just typing out this sentence makes me want to die inside. Odds of an 8-game losing streak 368,333:1 against[/table] Oct. 11, 2009: ALDS Game 3 [table] Game State Top 7, 1 out, Twins ahead by 1 vs. New York Twins Win Probability 72.6% How'd things look? The Twins have struck first on an RBI single by Mauer, and the Yankees have responded with a Mark Teixeira groundout. What happened? Yankees immediately take the lead with home runs by A-Rod and Posada. Twins threaten to tie in the 8th with a leadoff Punto double, but fail to capitalize. Yankees win 4-1. Odds of a 9-game losing streak 1,344,281:1 against[/table] Oct. 6, 2010: ALDS Game 1 [table] Game State Top 6, 1 out, Twins ahead by 3 vs. New York Twins Win Probability 87.7% How'd things look? Francisco Liriano has only given up 2 hits to the Yankees, who are down three and open the 6th with a Nick Swisher strikeout. What happened? The wheels come off moments later as Lirano gives up a double, a wild pitch, 2 singles, and a triple to give the Yankees a 4-3 lead. The Twins would later tie it, only to lose 6-4. Odds of a 10-game losing streak 10,929,120:1 against[/table] Oct. 7, 2010: ALDS Game 2 [table] Game State Bottom 3, 0 outs, Twins ahead by 1 vs. New York Twins Win Probability 66.5% How'd things look? Twins opened the scoring in the 2nd on a Danny Valencia sac fly, and the Yankees go down 1-2-3 in response. What happened? Yankees would later take a 2-1 lead before Orlando Hudson ties the game with a solo shot, but that tie doesn't last long. Yankees win 5-2. Odds of an 11-game losing streak 32,624,240:1 against[/table] Oct. 9, 2010: ALDS Game 3 [table] Game State Top 2, 0 outs, Twins tied at New York Twins Win Probability 50% How'd things look? This is the only game in the 18-game streak where the Twins were never favored. It remained 50/50 after both teams failed to accomplish anything in the first inning. What happened? Twins fall behind in the 2nd, and never get close, losing 6-1. Odds of a 12-game losing streak 65,248,481:1 against[/table] Oct. 3, 2017: AL Wild Card [table] Game State Top 1, 1 out, Twins ahead by 3 at New York Twins Win Probability 81.8% How'd things look? You remember this inning, right? Twins go into Yankee Stadium and immediately knock Luis Severino out of the game with homers by Brian Dozier and Eddie Rosario, followed by an Escobar single and a Kepler double. 3 run lead, 2 men on, only 1 out. We've got this. Yankees don't have a CHANCE. What happened? Buxton and Castro strike out to end the inning, Ervin Santana gives up the lead on a 3-run homer, Yankees win 8-4, and everyone in my generation starts to develop serious anxiety complexes revolving around who the hell we hurt to cause this. Odds of a 13-game losing streak 358,508,138:1 against[/table] Oct. 4, 2019: ALDS Game 1 [table] Game State Top 3, 2 out, Twins ahead by 2 at New York Twins Win Probability 67.1% How'd things look? Twins were already leading 1-0 when Nelson Cruz comes up big with a solo home run against James Paxton. What happened? As per usual, Twins lose the lead immediately. They tie things up in the 5th, but that also doesn't last. Twins lose 10-4. Odds of a 14-game losing streak 1,089,690,390:1 against[/table] Oct. 5, 2019: ALDS Game 2 [table] Game State Top 1, 1 out, Twins tied at New York Twins Win Probability 53.6% How'd things look? Inexplicably known as the Randy Dobnak game, the Twins were statistically favored for the briefest of moments when a HBP and a single put 2 men on in the first inning with only one out. What happened? Those baserunners are stranded on a double play, Yankees score first and never look back. Twins lose 8-2. Odds of a 15-game losing streak 2,348,470,670:1 against[/table] Oct. 7, 2019: ALDS Game 3 [table] Game State Bottom 2, 0 outs, Twins losing by 1 vs. New York Twins Win Probability 62.6% How'd things look? The only entry on this series where the Twins were favored while losing. Why? The Twins opened the 2nd inning by loading the bases with no outs. This is a scenario where you are highly likely to score multiple runs. What happened? They didn't. Odds of a 16-game losing streak 6,279,333,342:1 against[/table] Sept. 29, 2020: AL Wild Card Round Game 1 [table] Game State Bottom 5th, 0 outs, Twins ahead by 1 vs. Houston Twins Win Probability 78.4% How'd things look? Twins open the 5th with consecutive walks while already leading. What happened? Strikeout, pop fly, groundout. Twins twitter immediately fears the worst due to the failure to capitalize, and their fears are proven valid. Odds of a 17-game losing streak 29,070,987,697:1 against[/table] Sept. 30, 2020: AL Wild Card Round Game 2 [table] Game State Bottom 6th, 0 outs, Twins tied vs. Houston Twins Win Probability 57.9% How'd things look? After loading the bases in the first inning and still failing to score, the Twins have done very litte. Still, it's a tie game, and the Twins are coming up to bat as slight favorites. What happened? The bats continued to stay silent, and couldn't overcome a 2-run deficit in the 9th. I cried, and then began writing this article as a coping mechanism. Odds of a 18-game losing streak 69,052,227,309:1 against[/table] Conclusions View full article

Yes, the number in the title is not an exaggeration. The true odds of the moment we find ourselves in at the close of the Twins 2020 postseason campaign, brief as it was, comes to one in 69 billion. Somewhere in the galaxy, Zaphod Beeblebrox fired up the Improbability drive and Minnesota got caught in the wake. Let's do some math, shall we? Setting a baseline Now, there's a very good chance you've seen the number 262,144 floating around Twins Twitter in the last day or two, and that's because if you were to flip a coin 18 times, the odds of each flip resulting in the same outcome are 262,144:1 against, or 218. Already, this feels bad. This feels unfair. We want to fight against this statistic. BASEBALL GAMES AREN'T COIN FLIPS, I hear you cry out. So many of those games were as underdogs against the almighty Yankees, surely the odds weren't THAT bad? And yeah, from that perspective, you'd be correct. @Awoodruff3 on Twitter looked at the problem from a gambling odds perspective: https://twitter.com/awoodruff3/status/1311415416456085510 28,524:1 against! Already, this is 10 times as likely as the coin flip scenario, so the sting should only be a fraction of what we currently feel, right? Sadly, no. Here's how it really breaks down. The Methodology I have gone into the Fangraphs archives for each of the 18 games in the losing streak and made note of the moment in time where the Twins had the highest expected win probability. In 17 of the 18 games, the Twins were favored to win - and in a few cases, extremely favored - before eventually taking the L. With that information, we can look at the odds of losing from these moments where the Twins had the greatest amount of leverage to create a future other than the ones we find ourselves in now. October 6th, 2004: ALDS Game 2 [table] Game State Bottom 12th, 1 out, Twins ahead by 1 at New York Twins Win Probability 87.3% How'd things look? With Joe Nathan on the mound for his third inning of work, John Olerud strikes out and the Twins are 2 outs away from taking a 2-0 lead in the series. What happened? Nathan gives consecutive walks before A-Rod hits a ground rule double, followed by an intentional walk and a Matsui sac fly to win. Odds of a loss 7.87:1 against[/table] October 8th, 2004: ALDS Game 3 [table] Game State Top 2nd, 2 outs, Twins ahead by 1 vs. New York Twins Win Probability 64.5% How'd things look? Carlos Silva gets a ground ball out from Bernie Williams. It's still early, but teams in the lead tend to stay in the lead. What happened? Silva immediately gave up 5 consecutive singles and 3 runs before the 2nd inning was over, and the Twins never saw daylight again. Odds of a 2-game losing streak 22:1 against[/table] October 9th, 2004: ALDS Game 4 [table] Game State Bottom 7, 0 outs, Twins ahead by 4 vs. New York Twins Win Probability 97.0%(!) How'd things look? A-Rod concludes a 1-2-3 inning in the top of the 7th by fouling out to first base. The Twins have retired 9 straight batters. What happened? Yankees tie the game in the top of the 8th on an RBI single and a 3-run homer, game goes to extra innings, Yankees take the lead in the 11th, Twins fans begin to wonder if this is the start of something dire. (Narrator: It is.) Odds of a 3-game losing streak 739:1 against[/table] October 3rd, 2006: ALDS Game 1 [table] Game State Bottom 1, 0 outs, tie game vs. Oakland Twins Win Probability 58.3% How'd things look? Luis Castillo leads off for the Twins with a walk. This would be as good as it got. What happened? Frank Thomas homers to take the lead in the 2nd, and despite the Twins making things interesting in the bottom of the 8th, they would never be favored again. Odds of a 4-game losing streak 1,773:1 against[/table] October 4th, 2006: ALDS Game 2 [table] Game State Bottom 6, 0 outs, tie game vs. Oakland Twins Win Probability 57.6% How'd things look? Down 2, the Twins start the bottom of the 6th with consecutive homers by Cuddy and Morneau to tie the game, and Oakland goes to the bullpen. What happened? Oakland responds in the 7th with 2 runs off an inside the park home run. Odds of a 5-game losing streak 4,181:1 against[/table] October 6th, 2006: ALDS Game 3 [table] Game State Top 2, 0 outs, tie game at Oakland Twins Win Probability 56.3% How'd things look? Morneau opens the 2nd with a double, with Torii Hunter on deck. What happened? Morneau doesn't score, Oakland opens up a 4-0 lead, and eventually win 8-3. Odds of a 6-game losing streak 9,569:1 against[/table] October 7th, 2009: ALDS Game 1 [table] Game State Top 3, 2 outs, Twins ahead by 2 at New York Twins Win Probability 68.7% How'd things look? Twins take a 2-0 lead when Joe Mauer scores on a Jorge Posada passed ball What happened? Yankees immediately tie the game on a Derek Jeter home run, and the Twins never score again. Yankees win 7-2. Odds of a 7-game losing streak 30,571:1 against[/table] October 9th, 2009: ALDS Game 2 [table] Game State Top 9, 0 outs, Twins ahead by 2 at New York Twins Win Probability 91.7% How'd things look? After the Twins take a 2 run lead in the top of the 8th, the Yankees go down 1-2-3, and Joe Mauer comes to the plate to open the 9th. What happened? Yankees tie it up in the bottom of the 9th, Joe Mauer hits a double in the 11th that Phil Cuzzi incorrectly rules foul, and settles for a single- only to be followed by 2 consecutive singles that would have scored him had the double stood. Instead, Mauer doesn't score, Yankees walk it off on a Mark Teixeira homer, and just typing out this sentence makes me want to die inside. Odds of an 8-game losing streak 368,333:1 against[/table] October 11th, 2009: ALDS Game 3 [table] Game State Top 7, 1 out, Twins ahead by 1 vs. New York Twins Win Probability 72.6% How'd things look? The Twins have struck first on an RBI single by Mauer, and the Yankees have responded with a Mark Teixeira groundout. What happened? Yankees immediately take the lead with home runs by A-Rod and Posada. Twins threaten to tie in the 8th with a leadoff Punto double, but fail to capitalize. Yankees win 4-1. Odds of a 9-game losing streak 1,344,281:1 against[/table] October 6th, 2010: ALDS Game 1 [table] Game State Top 6, 1 out, Twins ahead by 3 vs. New York Twins Win Probability 87.7% How'd things look? Francisco Liriano has only given up 2 hits to the Yankees, who are down three and open the 6th with a Nick Swisher strikeout. What happened? The wheels come off moments later as Lirano gives up a double, a wild pitch, 2 singles, and a triple to give the Yankees a 4-3 lead. The Twins would later tie it, only to lose 6-4. Odds of a 10-game losing streak 10,929,120:1 against[/table] October 7th, 2010: ALDS Game 2 [table] Game State Bottom 3, 0 outs, Twins ahead by 1 vs. New York Twins Win Probability 66.5% How'd things look? Twins opened the scoring in the 2nd on a Danny Valencia sac fly, and the Yankees go down 1-2-3 in response. What happened? Yankees would later take a 2-1 lead before Orlando Hudson ties the game with a solo shot, but that tie doesn't last long. Yankees win 5-2. Odds of an 11-game losing streak 32,624,240:1 against[/table] October 9th, 2010: ALDS Game 3 [table] Game State Top 2, 0 outs, Twins tied at New York Twins Win Probability 50% How'd things look? This is the only game in the 18-game streak where the Twins were never favored. It remained 50/50 after both teams failed to accomplish anything in the first inning. What happened? Twins fall behind in the 2nd, and never get close, losing 6-1. Odds of a 12-game losing streak 65,248,481:1 against[/table] October 3th, 2017: AL Wild Card [table] Game State Top 1, 1 out, Twins ahead by 3 at New York Twins Win Probability 81.8% How'd things look? You remember this inning, right? Twins go into Yankee Stadium and immediately knock Luis Severino out of the game with homers by Brian Dozier and Eddie Rosario, followed by an Escobar single and a Kepler double. 3 run lead, 2 men on, only 1 out. We've got this. Yankees don't have a CHANCE. What happened? Buxton and Castro strike out to end the inning, Ervin Santana gives up the lead on a 3-run homer, Yankees win 8-4, and everyone in my generation starts to develop serious anxiety complexes revolving around who the hell we hurt to cause this. Odds of a 13-game losing streak 358,508,138:1 against[/table] October 4th, 2019: ALDS Game 1 [table] Game State Top 3, 2 out, Twins ahead by 2 at New York Twins Win Probability 67.1% How'd things look? Twins were already leading 1-0 when Nelson Cruz comes up big with a solo home run against James Paxton. What happened? As per usual, Twins lose the lead immediately. They tie things up in the 5th, but that also doesn't last. Twins lose 10-4. Odds of a 14-game losing streak 1,089,690,390:1 against[/table] October 5th, 2019: ALDS Game 2 [table] Game State Top 1, 1 out, Twins tied at New York Twins Win Probability 53.6% How'd things look? Inexplicably known as the Randy Dobnak game, the Twins were statistically favored for the briefest of moments when a HBP and a single put 2 men on in the first inning with only one out. What happened? Those baserunners are stranded on a double play, Yankees score first and never look back. Twins lose 8-2. Odds of a 15-game losing streak 2,348,470,670:1 against[/table] October 7th, 2019: ALDS Game 3 [table] Game State Bottom 2, 0 outs, Twins losing by 1 vs. New York Twins Win Probability 62.6% How'd things look? The only entry on this series where the Twins were favored while losing. Why? The Twins opened the 2nd inning by loading the bases with no outs. This is a scenario where you are highly likely to score multiple runs. What happened? They didn't. Odds of a 16-game losing streak 6,279,333,342:1 against[/table] September 29th, 2020: AL Wild Card Round Game 1 [table] Game State Bottom 5th, 0 outs, Twins ahead by 1 vs. Houston Twins Win Probability 78.4% How'd things look? Twins open the 5th with consecutive walks while already leading. What happened? Strikeout, pop fly, groundout. Twins twitter immediately fears the worst due to the failure to capitalize, and their fears are proven valid. Odds of a 17-game losing streak 29,070,987,697:1 against[/table] September 30th, 2020: AL Wild Card Round Game 2 [table] Game State Bottom 6th, 0 outs, Twins tied vs. Houston Twins Win Probability 57.9% How'd things look? After loading the bases in the first inning and still failing to score, the Twins have done very litte. Still, it's a tie game, and the Twins are coming up to bat as slight favorites. What happened? The bats continued to stay silent, and couldn't overcome a 2-run deficit in the 9th. I cried, and then began writing this article as a coping mechanism. Odds of a 18-game losing streak 69,052,227,309:1 against[/table] Conclusions https://twitter.com/GoTwinkiesGo/status/1311406223019790336