Pablo López Is the Pivot Point for the Minnesota Twins Offseason

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Will the Twins trade Joe Ryan this offseason? It's a big question, but I don't think it's the pivotal question. In my mind, the calculus for trading Ryan is reasonable, even if the Twins are going to make an effort to contend next year. This is a pretty straightforward sell-high opportunity, with the right-hander coming off a career year and All-Star appearance at age 29.

If the Twins trade Ryan, who's due less than $6 million next year according to MLBTR projections, it won't be about money. And while Ryan is a hell of a pitcher who would hurt to lose, I do think the team and rotation could theoretically survive his subtraction and still hold their own next year.

I don't believe either of those things are true of Pablo López. If he gets traded, it's about the money, and it's a sure sign that the Twins are headed to a very dark place next year.

It would obviously be a huge stretch to say that Minnesota collapsed this past season simply because López got hurt, but you can't deny how uncanny the timing was. On June 3rd, when López injured his shoulder on the much-maligned pitching mound at Sutter Health Park, the Twins were six games above .500, on their way to a 20th win in their last 27 games. Over their next 27 games following the injury they would go 8-19, erasing all progress from their electric month of May, and by the time López returned in September the Twins were 16 games below .500, mired deeply in irrelevance.

Would the Twins have made the playoffs if López didn't get hurt? No. But I do think the huge drop-off in performance and vibes was reflective in some ways of his absence. López is not only a great pitcher — he posted a 2.74 ERA in the 14 starts he was able to make — but also a natural leader and integral figure in the clubhouse. If Byron Buxton is the heart of this Twins team, López is the brain, and I'm not sure they can survive without either in 2026, let alone both.

It was notable that, in a late-season interview on YouTube, Twins announcer Cory Provus opined specifically that moving López trade — not Ryan — could be the breaking point that compels Buxton to reconsider his no-trade stance. "If the Twins trade Pablo," Provus said, "then the likelihood of Buxton coming back, I think, drops considerably. That’s on my mind a lot."

Even drawing back from the on-field and clubhouse implications of a López trade, let's just take an honest look at the motivations that would drive such a move. López is not a sell-high candidate in the same vein as Ryan. I don't doubt he would generate significant demand and a solid return, but López just missed half a season due to multiple injuries and he's going to make twice as much as Ryan over his two remaining years under contract. 

Will these factors scare away big-market contenders looking to make a splash? Hardly, but the recent injuries and price tag are bound to temper the bidding for López relative to Ryan. In my mind, if López gets dealt, it's merely about finances, because currently he's on track to earn about a corner of the team's payroll in 2026.

So that's where my attention is focused heading into this offseason: Pablo López, the pivot point of the Twins' short-term future. If he gets traded, it's a grim omen on its own, not even accounting for the dominoes it's bound to trigger.

Please don't trade Pablo. PLEASE don't trade Byron. Stripped down as it is, this team needs likable characters and a fighting chance.

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[Linus]

Spot on. If they are going to compete next year one way to do it is to turn Ryan into a good bat or two. The pitching staff could likely survive it and this lineup needs a makeover. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

100% agreed. 

[bunsen82]

I will begrudgingly agree unless someone is willing to massively overpay.  The strength of the Twins right now is the starting pitching.  You have 2 #1 pitchers when they are healthy and pitching well.  Due to the injury you would not be getting full value on a Pablo trade.  You are better to keep him and then trade him at the deadline if you are wanting to try to get full value or keep Pablo.  

I continue to stand by Pablo is the pitcher the twins are building around for the next 2 years.  He is the ultimate professional.    

[jmlease1]

Nailed it. If Pablo gets moved, it means the payroll is going to be locked at under $100M for sure and the only way to add anything to the team was to create more payroll space. But trading a dollar for 2 quarters, a dime, and a nickel is a classic way to ensure you lose. 

I'd hate the idea of trading Ryan; he's a great pitcher who is also very fun to watch. He's a player you'd hope to extend, not deal. But in theory you could move him and get a really big return, even if it might take another couple of seasons to develop that talent. Pablo would still bring back quite a bit, but less likely to get the truly high end, low-risk prospects.

The one thing trading Pablo could do is bring back a proven MLB bat with a $10M+ contract...but I just don't see it happening.

[mikelink45]

I do not trade either Lopez or Ryan. We see need them and Buxton - that is a three part anchor to keep the Twins from sinking completely.  They are what you build on.  We are not going to get better than they already are.  I am not anxious for a 2030 rebuild.  Let's make this the bottom.  With the potential we have in Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzales, Culpepper there is a chance at least half of them succeed and if so we can start rising again.  Move some young SP arms to the BP and let's change the attitude of the team and the fans.

It really is a question of the Pohlads and if they want a championship contender or just a bigger saving account.

 

[LewFordLives]

Good article, but I disagree with the premise. Yes, Ryan would bring a greater return of talent, but if you move Pablo you're potentially freeing up dollars to spend on other needs (assuming they spend the money). Trading Pablo but not Ryan does not necessarily indicate one direction over the other. Trading Ryan would probably make the Twins worse off because he's arguably the better pitcher. 

Personally, I don't think they should trade either of them, and I don't think they need to. They can keep both and stay under $100 million. Starting pitching will be what keeps this team competitive. Other things need to happen too, but it begins with starting pitching.

[Patzky]

I don't think the pitching staff as a whole is as good without Ryan, I don't think the team as a whole is as good without Pablo. The money angle analysis is right on as is the connection to Buxton remaining. 

This transaction or lack will be so much bigger than just Pablo Day jerseys..

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

Good article, but I disagree with the premise. Yes, Ryan would bring a greater return of talent, but if you move Pablo you're potentially freeing up dollars to spend on other needs (assuming they spend the money). Trading Pablo but not Ryan does not necessarily indicate one direction over the other. Trading Ryan would probably make the Twins worse off because he's arguably the better pitcher. 

Personally, I don't think they should trade either of them, and I don't think they need to. They can keep both and stay under $100 million. Starting pitching will be what keeps this team competitive. Other things need to happen too, but it begins with starting pitching.

Disagree only that I'll take Pablo as my ace. Ryan was awesome last year, but I'll take Pablo for 2026 ongoing.

 

[terrydactyls]

I keep reading that the Twins need all three to be a "contender" in 2026.  A contender for what?  Certainly not a World Series contender.  And I think that they are not even an American League Central contender.  They need a makeover.  If trading Lopez means losing  Buxton, it would be worthwhile to at least find out what teams would trade for one or both of them.  Ryan should be traded regardless.  Commit to a rebuild and start now.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins don't need to spend $120-140M to have a decent team. They can be decent with a $100-110M budget. If the Twins move Lopez to save money it means the front office doesn't understand budgeting or balancing roster needs.

The team could keep both Lopez and Ryan but changes need to be made to acquire better baseball players. The Twins cannot continue next season with their assortment of poor defensive players whose bats are mostly anemic. That will mean a few gamble trades. I doubt that Lopez returns the value of Ryan. There isn't any reason to trade Lopez without gaining a significant return. I cannot think of a team to target using Pablo.

Thus, I think Nick is spot on here. The one caveat is if some team offers something insane, which is not happening.

[Riverbrian]

Very sensible article. 

The big question of this off-season is do you trade Ryan or keep him? I can see arguments for both approaches and I'd imagine the return will determine the direction. 

Ryan is probably at peak value right now. He brings back the most in a trade and he probably brings back less next year so I think a Ryan trade makes sense this off-season. You also have to factor in that he is healthy right now but pitchers become unhealthy fast so the timing may actually be perfect for a Ryan trade. I don't want to trade Ryan but after a lot of thought... I think I'm leaning toward trading Joe Ryan. I'd prefer a young talented 1B in return and would love a young SS as well.  

Starting pitching is the team strength... perhaps the only department that is above major league average and the depth of major league arm options is also a major part of that strength to go along with Ryan and Lopez at the top of the rotation.  

If you trade Ryan and Lopez? Lopez becomes a true pivot point because you will have not only removed your top two arms but you have also significantly shallowed the depth on the mound. 

Once you trade Ryan and Lopez and shallowed the depth. The starting pitching will no longer be above average and that means that every single department will be below average since you took away the one thing that was not.   

[Nick Nelson]

25 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

Good article, but I disagree with the premise. Yes, Ryan would bring a greater return of talent, but if you move Pablo you're potentially freeing up dollars to spend on other needs (assuming they spend the money).

If they trade Pablo I feel very confident it's not so they can spend that money elsewhere. How would you spend $20M that would be more valuable than a #1 starter in his prime anyway? 

[Chembry]

Personally, I do believe trading Ryan will only benefit the Twins in the long run.  Especially if the package includes top prospects that are MLB ready, which is what I believe the Twins will ask for given we have Jenkins, Culpepper, Rodriguez, and Gonzalez that are all really close to MLB. 

However, a veteran pitcher like Pablo acts as a second pitching coach.  He has publicly stated that he attends bullpen sessions and helps with both the mental and physical side of the game.  A locker room presence like that is invaluable to all the young pitchers we have (Abel, Bradley, Morris, Prielipp, etc...).  Add that to the many reasons I don't trade Pablo in the offseason.   

I don't like trading Ryan, but the likelihood of the Twins extending him after 2027 is zero. I also think the Twins could absorb trading either Ryan or Lopez, but not both.  That's the reason I look to trade Ryan.

[LewFordLives]

1 minute ago, Nick Nelson said:

If they trade Pablo I feel very confident it's not so they can spend that money elsewhere. How would you spend $20M that would be more valuable than a #1 starter in his prime anyway? 

Agreed, you can't. But I would also argue the same goes for Ryan. They won't get fair value either way.

[Nashvilletwin]

25 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

I keep reading that the Twins need all three to be a "contender" in 2026.  A contender for what?  Certainly not a World Series contender.  And I think that they are not even an American League Central contender.  They need a makeover.  If trading Lopez means losing  Buxton, it would be worthwhile to at least find out what teams would trade for one or both of them.  Ryan should be traded regardless.  Commit to a rebuild and start now.

You and I are in the minority.  Neither Ryan nor Lopez will be on the roster post the ‘27 lock out (assuming Ryan will not sign an extension). They both are at peak value now based on performance, comp, age and timing (i.e., as the lockout approaches their value will decrease).

The rebuild is on and committed to: the trade deadline and Rocco’s departure say it all.  Move both of them ideally before the season and absolutely by the trade deadline.  Btw, the same can be said for Buxton (if he wants to - the list of options for him and his family will be long). And Jeffers isn’t far behind either (most likely at the trade deadline).

[LA Vikes Fan]

12 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Very sensible article. 

The big question of this off-season is do you trade Ryan or keep him? I can see arguments for both approaches and I'd imagine the return will determine the direction. 

Ryan is probably at peak value right now. He brings back the most in a trade and he probably brings back less next year so I think a Ryan trade makes sense this off-season. You also have to factor in that he is healthy right now but pitchers become unhealthy fast so the timing may actually be perfect for a Ryan trade. I don't want to trade Ryan but after a lot of thought... I think I'm leaning toward trading Joe Ryan. I'd prefer a young talented 1B in return and would love a young SS as well.  

Starting pitching is the team strength... perhaps the only department that is above major league average and the depth of major league arm options is also a major part of that strength to go along with Ryan and Lopez at the top of the rotation.  

If you trade Ryan and Lopez? Lopez becomes a true pivot point because you will have not only removed your top two arms but you have also significantly shallowed the depth on the mound. 

Once you trade Ryan and Lopez and shallowed the depth. The starting pitching will no longer be above average and that means that every single department will be below average since you took away the one thing that was not.   

Completely agree. A poster in another thread proposed Ryan to Boston for Wilyer Abreu (26 yo gold glove RF, .256/.326/.465(.791) in 850 MLB ABs, FA in 2030), LH SP Payton Tolle (Bos #2 prospect, 22 yo, just got to MLB), and Tristan Casas (25 Yo, .800 OPS in 815 ABs over 3 seasons but only .580 last year in 99 ABs, FA 2029).  I want to keep Ryan but I wouldn't object to a trade if that kind of a deal was available AND the Twins commit to keeping Pablo.

[Riverbrian]

19 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

Agreed, you can't. But I would also argue the same goes for Ryan. They won't get fair value either way.

Personally, I don't believe payroll should be the determining factor on either Ryan or Lopez. Payroll has already been reduced significantly that the Twins have enough money to retain both of them. But... I'm also not looking at the books. 

Money will be the factor for the other 29 clubs you are trading with and the return you get back.   

Lopez is under control for 2 more years at around 43 million dollars. 

Ryan is under control for 2 more years at... that depends on the Arb 2 and Arb 3 number. If he has another great 2026... what 24 million? But teams are only on the hook for 8 million or whatever his arb number is this off season if his arm falls off in 2026.  

That 19 million or 33 million matters to the other 29 clubs you are trading with.

Ryan brings back more because teams are only on the hook for 8 million or whatever the arb number is next season. 

Weather we get fair value in these trades? There are no guarantees in this world but I'll say this:

If the Twins want fair value in these trades or excess value in these trades. They are going to have to not only identify the right player or players to trade for but they will have to develop that player or players to get fair value. 

Fair Value is up to the Twins front office. If they fail at this... we will have a new front office shortly afterwards. The Twins front office has to be in a position where they need things to go right for awhile. 

 

[Riverbrian]

7 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Completely agree. A poster in another thread proposed Ryan to Boston for Wilyer Abreu (26 yo gold glove RF, .256/.326/.465(.791) in 850 MLB ABs, FA in 2030), LH SP Payton Tolle (Bos #2 prospect, 22 yo, just got to MLB), and Tristan Casas (25 Yo, .800 OPS in 815 ABs over 3 seasons but only .580 last year in 99 ABs, FA 2029).  I want to keep Ryan but I wouldn't object to a trade if that kind of a deal was available AND the Twins commit to keeping Pablo.

It's impossible for me to know what any front office would be willing to trade. 

I saw the proposal made. It's certainly brings back talented players but... in my subjective opinion. I'd rather get Mayer and Casas if possible. If I'm allowed to just pick players like I'm picking up soup off the shelf in a soupermarket. 😄

I just don't know if it's possible. Trades always take two to tango... And you probably want to give the other 29 teams a call and talk soup. 

[EGFTShaw]

The premise, although he did present as kind of an either/or scenario, is not about which pitcher is better long term for the Twins.  But the premise really is, which pitcher signals a true tear down.  At least in my viewpoint that is how it is presented.

Keeping Ryan is about future potential and striking while the iron is hot. (BTW - who strikes a hot iron anyway).  Two years ago, I saw an attitude from Ryan, when Rocco came to take him out of the game, that pointed towards his potential.  He Did Not Want To Come Out.  You can go back and look at tape of any pitcher who ascends to the top, and they have this type of attitude.  Of course you do need talent to go with the attitude. Maddux, Pedro, The BIG Unit and so on.  

So, with Ryan I think he still has a higher ceiling.

Pablo is very similar in attitude AND has demonstrated he is the consummate professional.

I can see a good argument for keeping either one.

Right now, Joe will get you more in return despite being less proven than Pablo and Pablo will free up more money.  

I don't think this team needs to free up more money unless...
....
It is going for the all-time loss record set by the White Sox AND the all-time run differential in the modern era set this year by the Rockies.

My pipe dream.
Keep both.  Develop the pitching assets picked up in the fire sale this July. FIND a manager that will get them back to the Twins Way of TK and the Piranhas of Gardie and for love of all things Hamms Bear, stop killing off our hitters.  Find a hitting coach who Improves the hitters instead Unimproves them.

Pax y'all

[GNess]

Good article which brings in to focus the idea of relative value. The context for the Twins is it doesn't appear that the FO believes they can contend next season therefore  trade all their valuable current assets for future assets.

In my mind that is faulty logic that sets up 100 loss seasons. Most successful rebuilds have a few core productive players on which to build. (Lopez would be such a core player!)

[Blyleven2011]

26 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

Agreed, you can't. But I would also argue the same goes for Ryan. They won't get fair value either way.

Not with falvey making the trades  , other teams have falvey figured out and won't surrendered their best talent in a trade with him , he will settle for second best  ...

You would think falvey would learn from past mistakes , I just see him getting worse , his arrogance is his major problem , he's so predictable  just like Rocco was in the dugout ...

[rdehring]

Great article, Nick.  Also, excellent comments from the TD faithful.  Thanks to all.

The Twins have three strengths, starting pitchers, top corner outfield prospects who are close, and Byron Buxton.  I will join Nick in that I expect Ryan to be dealt, and hope Lopez is not. 

Their starting pitching depth should enable them to still have a very good starting rotation with a couple more down at AAA for depth should Ryan be traded.  So, the question becomes what do the Twins get in return for Ryan?  The Twins greatest weakness heading into the winter is their bullpen.  Thus, I believe part of the return must be a young reliever who is capable of being a late inning stalwart.  You know, someone like Louis Varland.  Add a top pitching prospect who isn't too far away and a third piece who also is a very good prospect and I could see a Ryan trade helping the Twins in both 2026 and beyond. 

And as long as we all are dreaming, maybe Toronto would be interested in Ryan and Louie could come home!

 

 

[thelanges5]

Wish we had a clue about what they were thinking up there at 1 Twins Way. Falvey and his word salads don’t give me a lot of confidence or hope in his ability to navigate this “right sizing” of the business. 

[Hrbeks Divot]

Great article. I believe that IF the Twins trade Pablo they SHOULD also trade Ryan. I don’t want to see terrible baseball over the next two years but if Pablo goes the Pohlads are signaling it’s about the money. At that point we might as well trade for the best talent we can get and hope the stars align with the kids in 28.

[Trov]

I would agree that trading Lopez would trigger a clear full sell off reload/rebuild approach.  Trading Ryan less so if you keep Lopez.  The main issue is that Lopez is the leader of the staff, and even with the young guys he is the type that would lead them. 

Now, depending on return it does not mean we cannot compete, but it really would be the young upstarts no one expected to compete type thing. Similar to Baltimore and KC a few years ago. 

[Dman]

I think the Twins will have plenty of suitors for both pitchers.  Every playoff team is in need of top level rotation arms.  To me if you are getting rid of one of them you might as well get rid of both.  Right now the Twins have a good One, Two punch with Pablo and Ryan.  Ryan is a unicorn pitcher with his rising fastball and Pablo's sweeper is a tough pitch as well.  With both arms they have a chance, but remove one and you are most likely looking at 2028 before being ready to truly compete again.  If that's where they are headed just trade both of them and play the young guys and see who shakes out.  If Buxton wants to leave so be it.  He likely won't be needed on a team that is in heavy rebuild mode anyway. 

IMO you give up on one you might as well go all the way.  No reason to go half way.  Pick rebuild or some level of contention, but stripped down as they are right now losing another big piece really pushes things over the edge for me as I think you take any idea of contention out of the equation. If that is the case get what you can for anyone of value and start over. Start with a whole new core and hope things fall your way.

[DJL44]

I'm still hoping they keep Ryan and Lopez and trade Ober this offseason. I don't think Ober will still be good in 2027. Someone needs to be traded to free up playing time for Bradley, Abel and Matthews. I know people keep posting about a lockout cancelling the 2027 season but I have my doubts. A lockout could shorten the season, but I'm betting we still get 100 games and a World Series. I don't think the owners will throw away $14B in revenue.

[D.C Twins]

He Gone!

There is no need for Pablo for the 2026 kids movement. They'll save more money and get some more assets on a 2028 timeline. 

[Sjoski]

The Twins will probably trade Ryan-Lopez-Buxton....why wouldn't they? 

Will it matter?   With Falvey at the helm, the Twins will always be 5 years away from being competitive again.