Pablo López Is the Pivot Point for the Minnesota Twins Offseason

[Major League Ready]

On 10/10/2025 at 2:35 PM, SoDakTwinsFan said:

To me it is pretty simple, is the goal to compete for a playoff berth or to compete for a world series?  We can probably not trade either of them and this team can be kind of flirty and dangerous and make the playoffs and get bounced in round one next year.  OR trade them for top prospects and put a world series contender on the field in 5 years.  I'd rather sacrifice years of a pretty good team for one chance at a monster.  A team that truly can compete for a world series.

You and I are in the minority.  The emphasis on immediacy is big for a large percentage of baseball fans.  This is no surprise.  Who wants to go backwards?  What surprises me is the acceptance of a goal to maybe have a shot at the playoffs knowing there is no way this team becomes a real contender without a rebuild.  In the last few years there were many complaints about the organization not taking aggressive steps to put a real contender on the field.  Now, it seems many are lobbying for the team to give up the opportunity to acquire meaningful pieces so that we can put a team on the field that's a fringe contender for a playoff spot at best.

We know intuitively that a modest revenue team is absolutely dependent upon producing cheap talent that is controlled for a long period of time.  Yet, a lot of fans really want the organization to change the roster by acquiring more expensive players that are under control for a short period of time.  

[Lasorda_This_Out]

Without Googling, who did the Twins receive for Johan Duran at the Deadline?

( No cheating)....

Beats me...🙄

[SteveLV]

Abel and Tait.  

But you knew that.

[tony&rodney]

5 hours ago, SteveLV said:

If you are trading Ryan to the Tigers, I want McGonigle for Ryan and Lee.  They would never do it, but that is who they should get.

McGonigle is looking tough but the Tigers almost surely want him to fit in the infield as soon as next season. There is plenty of projection left in Parker Meadows future and he is already an elite centerfielder with crazy athletic talent. Max Clark might have trouble breaking into the Tigers outfield but he has a potentially fabulous future. I love the way Javy Baez plays defense. 

At the very least it is worth a discussion and exploration of mutually beneficial ideas.

[Doctor Wu]

Very good article, one of the best ones that I have read so far in this post-season. This part was especially apt:

And while Ryan is a hell of a pitcher who would hurt to lose, I do think the team and rotation could theoretically survive his subtraction and still hold their own next year.

Right now we have more quality  depth in the starting rotation than I can recall us having in ... many years ... ever? Honestly, there are a lot of good to great arms that we can put in the rotation and feel fairly confident. If we have to trade one arm, I think Ryan will give us the biggest return. Let's do it. But by all means, keep Pablo for a few more years. 

[TopGunn#22]

On 10/11/2025 at 2:36 PM, tony&rodney said:

Can you explain how Joe Ryan went from 70 in July to 47 now? How did Royce Lewis go from 31 in late July to 11 now? I'm curious how that works.

FWIW, racism was a part of the 1965 trade of Frank Robinson, but it is important to remember that Milt Pappas was seen as being the next Koufax at the time.

I don't see the Red Sox as the best trading partner for the Twins. I'm only interested in Rafaela Ceddanne and Payton Tolle, maybe Marcelo Mayer but I am not that keen on his future as many. If Boston wants Joe Ryan, they will have to pay much more than BTV would suggest, but if they just wanted to be rid of Tristan Casas he works as a throw in a deal.

It is fun to play around with these ideas. While I know everyone has different thoughts and nobody has any clue of actual values from a MLB front office viewpoint much less need, it still is a part of being a fan.

Thinking about trades just while typing this, I wonder if Detroit would be amenable to receiving either Ryan or Lopez plus either Lee or Lewis and send back Javy Baez and Max Clark.

I'm totally guessing but expect a budget near $110M for 2026.

T&R, I can't begin to explain HOW BBTV comes up with their ultimate ratings for players.  I know a lot of it is based on how much a player is being paid.  One thing I do not agree with about their "formula" is that if a player is highly paid, but also performs at a high level, they don't seem to get any credit for being GOOD or GREAT.  

Now if you have a guy like Kris Bryant, who was a former MVP but has been hurt multiple times each SEASON ever since, well he's just a Black Hole of Negative Value.  I get that.  I'm not sure how any pitcher could be valued higher than Tarik Skubal regardless of what he's being paid now and what his expected mega contract will eventually yield.  But somehow, on the verge of winning his 2nd straight A.L. Cy Young, Skubal's value went from 68.6 to 62.6 and finally now, seems to have bottomed out at 51.6 (did they SEE his 13 strikeout performance over 6 innings the other night???).  ??

I kind of "get" the reduction of value for Lewis.  He can't live on his 2023 2nd half and post season forever.  At some point he's got to stay healthy and put up a 25 HR 90 RBI season.  If he does that, his value will soar like an eagle.

I've pretty much focused on a Ryan trade to the Red sox because I like some of their players and prospects and they seem to be a team that needs to unload an OF and som prospects to get the SP they need.  But here's an idea for a trade with the Mets.

Mets get:  Joe Ryan 47.0  Brooks Lee 20.6  Total:  67.6

Twins get:  Nolan McLean SP  21.6 (24 y/o)  Jett Williams SS 23.1  (21 y/o) Mark Vientos 3B/DH 11.6 25 y/o and Jonah Tong SP 22 y/o  12.6.  Total 68.6.

The Mets may be loath to give up a young fireballer like McLean who was very impressive late this season, but he's the centerpiece along with Jett Williams.  Ryan at 47.0 straight up for McLean 21.6 and Williams 23.1  (Total:  44.7) would be acceptable to me, but I'd like to add Vientos, a 25 year old 3B/DH who I wonder if he could play 1B.  He hit 27 HR's in 2024 with an OPS of .837.  This last season he slumped to 17 HR's and an OPS of .702.  But I'm intrigued what he could provide to the Twins lineup.

If the Mets wouldn't give up Tong I could take a different player.  Giving up Lee doesn't bother me because Jett Williams is ready at 21 years old, he's just blocked by Francisco Lindor.  With Culpepper and Marek Houston on the horizon, Lee wouldn't be the Twins SS for long anyway.  He can slot in at 3B or 2B for the Mets.    

 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

T&R, I can't begin to explain HOW BBTV comes up with their ultimate ratings for players.  I know a lot of it is based on how much a player is being paid.  One thing I do not agree with about their "formula" is that if a player is highly paid, but also performs at a high level, they don't seem to get any credit for being GOOD or GREAT.  

Now if you have a guy like Kris Bryant, who was a former MVP but has been hurt multiple times each SEASON ever since, well he's just a Black Hole of Negative Value.  I get that.  I'm not sure how any pitcher could be valued higher than Tarik Skubal regardless of what he's being paid now and what his expected mega contract will eventually yield.  But somehow, on the verge of winning his 2nd straight A.L. Cy Young, Skubal's value went from 68.6 to 62.6 and finally now, seems to have bottomed out at 51.6 (did they SEE his 13 strikeout performance over 6 innings the other night???).  ??

I kind of "get" the reduction of value for Lewis.  He can't live on his 2023 2nd half and post season forever.  At some point he's got to stay healthy and put up a 25 HR 90 RBI season.  If he does that, his value will soar like an eagle.

I've pretty much focused on a Ryan trade to the Red sox because I like some of their players and prospects and they seem to be a team that needs to unload an OF and som prospects to get the SP they need.  But here's an idea for a trade with the Mets.

Mets get:  Joe Ryan 47.0  Brooks Lee 20.6  Total:  67.6

Twins get:  Nolan McLean SP  21.6 (24 y/o)  Jett Williams SS 23.1  (21 y/o) Mark Vientos 3B/DH 11.6 25 y/o and Jonah Tong SP 22 y/o  12.6.  Total 68.6.

The Mets may be loath to give up a young fireballer like McLean who was very impressive late this season, but he's the centerpiece along with Jett Williams.  Ryan at 47.0 straight up for McLean 21.6 and Williams 23.1  (Total:  44.7) would be acceptable to me, but I'd like to add Vientos, a 25 year old 3B/DH who I wonder if he could play 1B.  He hit 27 HR's in 2024 with an OPS of .837.  This last season he slumped to 17 HR's and an OPS of .702.  But I'm intrigued what he could provide to the Twins lineup.

If the Mets wouldn't give up Tong I could take a different player.  Giving up Lee doesn't bother me because Jett Williams is ready at 21 years old, he's just blocked by Francisco Lindor.  With Culpepper and Marek Houston on the horizon, Lee wouldn't be the Twins SS for long anyway.  He can slot in at 3B or 2B for the Mets.    

 

Thank you for an attempt at explaining BTV. I heard that Skubal was basically the same as Ryan which is strange. 

I'm firmly in the camp which wants change, specifically to a more athletic defensively-oriented position group. The players who interest me from the Red Sox are Rafaela, Arias, and Durran. I'm not buying Durran's high value. However, I would demand quite a bit from Boston because I like some other options. The Mets might work but I'm not keen at all on Williams. I do like McLean but the Twins need position players. Keeping Ryan is also an option but I do believe the team needs to make several trades at a minimum.

The payroll should not be an issue because $110M is very doable. While there are voices calling for $130-150M, the focus needs to be on talent. Hopefully, the Twins can identify players and teams where mutually beneficial trades take place.

It will be devastating if the team does nothing. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Pablo Lopez and Byron Buxton are two wonderful ambassadors for the Twins franchise.  They are men we would want our sons to emulate. They are the best pitcher and the best position player that the Twins have had this decade.  If the object of this franchise is to win with class and dignity and respect for the game and to entertain and keep the fans and continuously be building a new base of fans, then why the hell would the Twins trade Buck or Pablo?  Unless the goal is not to win, nor keep a fan base, nor attract new fans...unless the goal is something different, like say maximize profits, and the owners are short sighted by believing the way to maximize this year's profits, is by selling and trading good players annually, so they won't spend too much money, rather than the goal being to build a sustainable, winning product that attracts and keeps fans.  What if I ran my law firm like the Twins are being run? Let's suppose I had a lawyer in my law firm who was doing a fantastic job winning cases and attracting new clients. So I fired him because he wanted a raise. In his place I hired a brand new lawyer who was just out of law school, didn't know anything yet and didn't cost me much money. He has no clients yet but in a couple of years maybe he will develop into a good lawyer with lots of clients. We'll just have to wait and see., because we are continuously building for tomorrow.  Sound familiar?

[SteveLV]

That Mets trade would heavily favor the Twins, IMO.  McLean has already demonstrated dominance in SSS at MLB level, Jetts is a very highly rated prospect, and why would they want Lee (even though I also advocate moving him if we can get a SS coming back...).

[SoDakTwinsFan]

On 10/10/2025 at 4:01 PM, LewFordLives said:

That's always a popular argument. In my experience of watching baseball over several decades the teams that are rebuilding for that World Series in five years are always rebuilding. That big day rarely ever comes. I'm more of the view that teams should always try to be at least competitive and then pick their spots when it looks like they have a team that's starting to gel. I'm not saying the Twins should go all in and bet the farm on 2026. It's going to be a tough year of finding out who can play and who can't. But I'm certainly not willing to throw the towel in on 2027, and if they trade Ryan and/or Lopez, that's effectively what they would be doing.

I don't disagree about teams always being in a rebuild mode.  But to me it is our best chance at winning a world series.  It's been 34 years since we last one a WS.  I wasn't old enough to remember it.  In that time frame we have been to the ALCS once.  I feel part of the reason for this is the franchise's goal is just to make the playoffs.  I don't want to just make the post season.  I want the Twins to win it.  I don't see that happening in the next 2 years.  So you trade your tradable pieces and try again in a few years.  It is the only way we compete for a WS.  It took the Royals years of being terrible but they finally got it done.  I'd take that over being semi-competitive more often than not.