Zebby Matthews Gets the Call to the Twins: What He Is, What He Will Be

[Jamie Cameron]

In the midst of a critical stretch, the Minnesota Twins are turning to Zebby Matthews, one of their top pitching prospects, to start on Tuesday against the Kansas City Royals. Unbelievably, Matthews’ started the season at High-A Cedar Rapids, and will see his fourth level of the season in a matchup against Seth Lugo.

Image courtesy of Tim Grubbs, Wichita Wind Surge

Who is Zebby Matthews? Why should we be psyched? What might he struggle with? Let’s dig in.

Matthews is a right-handed pitcher with a frame ideally suited to start. Standing at 6’5, 225 pounds, he cuts an imposing figure on the mound. An eighth-round pick out of Western Carolina in 2022, Matthews is the second member of that draft class to make their MLB debut, after Brooks Lee. Matthews is also part of a quartet of highly-regarded starting pitchers from that draft, including fourth-rounder Andrew Morris, ninth-rounder Cory Lewis, and 13th-rounder C.J. Culpepper.

Before we dig into Matthews’s strengths and improvement opportunities on the mound, it’s worth stamping how monumental a win his promotion is for the Twins scouting and player development teams. For a pitcher drafted just over two years ago to make their MLB debut after surging into top-100 prospect consideration is a testament to the ability of the organization to identify and develop pitching talent.

Matthews has a solid case to make as the best pitcher in all of minor-league baseball in 2024. In 97 innings, he’s posted a 2.60 ERA, 2.12 FIP, and 2.51 xFIP, while striking out 30.5% of hitters, and walking just 1.9%. That’s absolute dominance, folks.

The Twins and Matthews made some tweaks to his pitch mix prior to the 2024 season. He previously threw a sweeper, which the organization ditched. Matthews split his cutter into two distinct pitches, a higher-vert cutter he throws primarily against left-handed hitters, and a gyro slider he throws to right-handed hitters.

Matthews’s pitch mix is reminiscent of Gerrit Cole. (Yes, really.) In addition to tweaks to his arsenal, it’s worth highlighting a few other welcome developments. Matthews's velocity has continued to trend up. He hit 99 mph with his fastball in one of his final Double-A starts. His 90th-percentile fastball velocity in 2024 has been 96.6 mph. That's hard to believe, for a prospect who came into the system throwing 91-92 mph.

Matthews’s other major asset is elite strike-throwing. Matthews has thrown strikes 70% of the time in 2024. Were he qualified and in MLB, that would rank him first, right ahead of Tarik Skubal (69.9%), and George Kirby (69%). If you combine this strike-throwing ability with a revamped five-pitch mix and burgeoning velocity. It’s easy to see how Matthews blew through the minor leagues so fast. Many hitters were down 0-2 before they got settled in the batter's box

Matthews’ greatest strength has become opponents greatest opportunity to do anything against him. You can expect opposing hitters to be aggressive with strikes early in the count, where Matthews lives in the zone seeking to gain leverage. There’s also a misconception Twins fandom has foisted on Matthews. You could see it in the tweet in which Jeff Passan broke the news of Matthews's call-up.

Zebby has elite control; he doesn’t yet have elite command. He commands his fastball well up in the zone. His secondary offerings need work in terms of location, and his ability to know how, when, and where to leave the zone with them. For Matthews to have sustainable success as an MLB starter, he’ll need to throw fewer strikes, leave the strike zone with strike-to-ball offerings more, and generate more chase.

I’d encourage folks to temper their expectations for Tuesday night, without dampening them for the long run. Matthews will be making his big-league debut and seeing his fourth level of 2024. There will be nerves. I’d also point to the fact that there are still adjustments to be made for Matthews at Triple-A, to be sustainably successful for the Twins. However his first start goes, Matthews will be part of the rotation mix for the Twins for the next half-decade. That, in itself, is a remarkable story of player development.

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[Vanimal46]

Good luck to Zebby! Hope he takes advantage of the opportunity at hand. Make it a tough decision to send you back to the minors. 

[Puckett34]

Good luck to Zebby.  Wonder what the corresponding move will be? 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

I never would have guessed that this was coming so soon, I assumed he would probably be a September bullpen call up if anything.

Can't argue with his production in the minors this year though, he's been incredible - particularly given how quickly they have promoted him. Even in St. Paul there's a lot to like under the hood of the 5.68 ERA. A 28.4% strikeout rate and a miniscule 1.2% walk rate while having to deal with the automatic zone, getting more groundballs than flyballs and having an uncharacteristically high HR rate. Festa has been bit by that bug in the majors too, and he's throwing a lot more in the zone so I could maybe see this carrying over for Zebby too. That will probably be the key on whether or not he has a rough start to his career.

Very exciting! The pipeline is certainly here this year, and they need it to perform the rest of the way. 

[LambchoP]

Excited to see Zebby of course, but also a bit worried. He started the year in A ball. He was dominant in A and AA, but has gotten hit a bit harder in his 4 AAA starts. Calling up guys before they are ready, ala Festa, can sometimes hurt their confidence and ultimately their development. Hopefully Mathews takes the opportunity and runs with it. Twins are desperate for quality innings at this point...

[nclahammer]

Good luck Zebby, the Minnesota Twins are really rolling the dice here.

[JD-TWINS]

5 minutes ago, Puckett34 said:

Good luck to Zebby.  Wonder what the corresponding move will be? 

Blewett is my assumption. It would be interesting to see him pitch. I can’t imagine his stuff wouldn’t stack up to Dobnak’s favorably……..with Okert due back & Varland added by the weekend for the 5th spot, both of these guys only have a few days left.

To me, Winder earned a spot for the foreseeable future over his outings recently.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

2 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Blewett is my assumption. It would be interesting to see him pitch. I can’t imagine his stuff wouldn’t stack up to Dobnak’s favorably……..with Okert due back & Varland added by the weekend for the 5th spot, both of these guys only have a few days left.

To me, Winder earned a spot for the foreseeable future over his outings recently.

Or Dobnak, I'd rather see what Blewett has got. Just not in a situation where he has a chance to blow it...

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, nclahammer said:

Good luck Zebby, the Minnesota Twins are really rolling the dice here.

No real choice with no other starters with proper rest…….bullpen game doesn’t make sense coming off 4 games in 3 days and in the midst of a key series with K.C.

Definite risk but a good opportunity for the kid to gain a little experience……maybe he’ll even experience some success?

[tony&rodney]

Interesting choice to have this come out today, giving Kansas City another day to prepare for him. The Royals certainly have data and information on Matthews but sometimes an extra 24 hours makes a minor difference.

Matthews should have very complete reports on how to approach the KC batters, which is crucial. You cannot throw too many strikes to Salvy. I wonder how Matthews will adapt to MLB. He will need to throw a few pitches out of the zone that are better than total waste unproductive pitches. This will be a real challenge for Zebulon. Hopefully, he can go 5 innings of 2-3 run baseball.

[Puckett34]

1 minute ago, JD-TWINS said:

Blewett is my assumption. It would be interesting to see him pitch. I can’t imagine his stuff wouldn’t stack up to Dobnak’s favorably……..with Okert due back & Varland added by the weekend for the 5th spot, both of these guys only have a few days left.

To me, Winder earned a spot for the foreseeable future over his outings recently.

Yeah sounds likely anyway.  Although, I'd like to see what Blewett has too.  Dobnak, Blewett, and Winder are most likely.  Winder only because he has options.   I'd imagine Zebby and Varland playing musical chairs every 15 days.  Zebby for 2 starts, Varland for another 2 starts, etc.   Until/if one emerges anyway.

[Patzky]

20 minutes ago, Puckett34 said:

Good luck to Zebby.  Wonder what the corresponding move will be? 

Likely Blewett and then Dobnak, if Okert is back from leave 

[mark allen]

Really excited for Zebby, I think more ready than Festa was having a five pitch arsenal is key to keep hitters guessing. I believe he will do well, might give up a homer, but doubt they will have runners on as no free passes with Zebby. Hope he makes a good case to stay up.

[BH67]

5 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

Excited to see Zebby of course, but also a bit worried. He started the year in A ball. He was dominant in A and AA, but has gotten hit a bit harder in his 4 AAA starts. Calling up guys before they are ready, ala Festa, can sometimes hurt their confidence and ultimately their development. Hopefully Mathews takes the opportunity and runs with it. Twins are desperate for quality innings at this point...

I'm not concerned about confidence for either Festa or Matthews. David's initiation was painful, but he learned a lot and is plausible for October. Given Zebby's meteoric rise, a hazing ceremony won't linger.

[LambchoP]

I hope you're right. A productive Zebby would be a good send for our patchwork rotation. I wish there was some kind of update on Canterino. I really thought this could have been his breakout year. Because of his injury history, he could have been moved to the bullpen where he could have been a real weapon. I feel the same about Varland too, we saw what he can do in relief last year down the stretch. With SP depth so thin though I think anyone who's been built up to start will remain a starter.

[USAFChief]

Got my fingers crossed, but this isn't a good situation. 

[D.C Twins]

Huge fan of Zebby, but in an ideal world, he would not see MLB time this early

[Eris]

Interesting choice considering he was not Rule 5 eligible until after the 2025 season. 

[mickster]

55 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Or Dobnak, I'd rather see what Blewett has got. Just not in a situation where he has a chance to blow it...

Dobnak threw 3 innings yesterday, I think he goes as we will need the arm in the pen.   

[Road trip]

13 minutes ago, Eris said:

Interesting choice considering he was not Rule 5 eligible until after the 2025 season. 

This is exactly what I was thinking.  Zebby is now going to need a 40-man spot this winter, as he can't be removed with out losing him.  There is a real cost to this promotion.  Yes, he was likely going to be added at some point next year, but that could have been done after spring training.  Twins now have one less roster spot to play with this winter as they decide who will be protected.

Having said that, if Zebby is the best possible option to start on Tuesday (and perhaps beyond) then I can't argue with the decision.  Twins have a pretty good chance at making the postseason, but they may need every win they can get.

[FlyingFinn]

3 minutes ago, Eris said:

Interesting choice considering he was not Rule 5 eligible until after the 2025 season. 

Agreed. Also gives us a clue on what the Twins off-season plans are and aren't. It is now about the pipeline and we aren't signing any significant starting pitchers. We are seeing what are young guys have. Wonder if Andrew Morris is about to get called up to the Saints.

[ashbury]

Tuesday should be Vazquez's turn to start, so it lines up well. Just listen to your catcher, Kid. He'll keep it to the basics for you. Shake him off a couple of times to confuse the opposition, but then go right back to what he called, LOL.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Or Dobnak, I'd rather see what Blewett has got. Just not in a situation where he has a chance to blow it...

Blewitt needs to go to the county courthouse and have his last name legally changed.  This is as bad a name for a pitcher as Bob Walk, Eric Plunk, Homer Bailey, Grant Balfour, or Tommy John.

[Craig Arko]

6 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Blewitt needs to go to the county courthouse and have his last name legally changed.  This is as bad a name for a pitcher as Bob Walk, Eric Plunk, Homer Bailey, Grant Balfour, or Tommy John.

Nah, it’s the name that got him here. He should just keep on keeping on.

[Trov]

First they need to decide who gets DFA or 60 day IL.  Either Blewett or Dobnak get the DFA, my guess Dobnak gets it like he did before.  Funderburk could get 60 day IL as well he is near 30 days on it already so unless you expect him back in next few weeks a 60 day IL may be in cards for him.  Then in terms of who gets on 26 man if Blewett or Dobnak do not get the DFA I think either could get optioned, not 100 percent on options left for them. 

[TwinsDr2021]

35 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

Huge fan of Zebby, but in an ideal world, he would not see MLB time this early

He is already 24 (Yes, I know so many don't care about age) but he will be 25 at the start of next season (or real close) and if he isn't given much of chance next year, because they couldn't go into the season with him being the 6th or 7th starter), he will be 26 in 26 and will still be a wild card, generally not the best position for a pitcher to be in.

Now he gets his feet wet, and if does well can be the Twins SWR next year and can be in the top 6 - 8 starters next year.

Good Luck Kid!

[SaberNerd]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

Excited to see Zebby of course, but also a bit worried. He started the year in A ball. He was dominant in A and AA, but has gotten hit a bit harder in his 4 AAA starts. Calling up guys before they are ready, ala Festa, can sometimes hurt their confidence and ultimately their development. Hopefully Mathews takes the opportunity and runs with it. Twins are desperate for quality innings at this point...

Agree with the idea, but Festa was ready for MLB time. Plenty of guys just need multiple shots before they make it. He was leading AAA in K%.

[nicksaviking]

Based on the article photo, the most impressive thing about Matthews is that he has top end precision while throwing with his eyes closed!

Maybe he's the offspring of Daredevil and Hawkeye?

[bean5302]

Honestly, people are way too worried. It shows how poorly this organization has developed talent by attaching big kid gloves to everybody. If they're ready, they're ready, but this organization has frequently log jammed talent far behind mediocre depth for whatever reason, be it extra team control or needing to polish some very rough ore. I was ready for Matthews to be called up directly out of AA. You do not perform at that level and not have what it takes to be serviceable. I'm sure some fans are thinking back to Berrios, who pitched in more pitcher friendly leagues. Matthews is age 24. It is totally normal for top prospects drafted out of college to make it to MLB in this timeline. 2-3 years is normal. If they're not in MLB by year 3, they're behind schedule, and if they're not in MLB by year 4, they've probably washed out.

ERA/FIP/xFIP
2015 AA - 3.08/3.09/2.88 - 9.13 K/9, 2.38 BB/9
2016 AAA - 2.51/2.91/2.89 - 10.10 K/9, 2.91 BB/9 <-- Year Berrios was called up
vs. Matthews
2024 AA - 1.95/2.00/2.56 - 10.25 K/9, 0.98 BB/9
2024 AAA - 5.68/4.14/2.96 - 10.89 K/9, 0.47 BB/9

While Matthews' ERA is rough at 5.68 in AAA, his FIP is right in line with the area of what Festa's was, and Matthews owns a 2.96 xFIP. Excellent K rates and elite walk rates with an above average WHIP in a hitter friendly AAA league. Matthews' results are more impressive than Berrios for what it's worth. Though Matthews is also a couple years older than Berrios. I suppose it might be a toss up of maturity vs. expected improvement. Who knows?

I don't agree with Matthews having a lack of command. There is utterly no way a pitcher can have 80 grade control while throwing upper 90s, get elite results, but have poor command. There is room for improvement in placement, but to say he doesn't have at least good "command" doesn't make sense to me. High K rate, low BB rate. That combination is incompatible with being unable to throw the ball where you want it or even not having plus command without absolutely filthy stuff.

Matthews doesn't have much experience dealing with hitters as polished as AAA/MLB hitters are, but that's where his catcher is going to be critical. No electronic strike zone, and hopefully he gets a decent umpire so he can get a consistent strike zone he can work with.

He doesn't have to go out there and throw a perfect game. It'll be great to see him pitch.

[bean5302]

27 minutes ago, Trov said:

First they need to decide who gets DFA or 60 day IL.  Either Blewett or Dobnak get the DFA, my guess Dobnak gets it like he did before.  Funderburk could get 60 day IL as well he is near 30 days on it already so unless you expect him back in next few weeks a 60 day IL may be in cards for him.  Then in terms of who gets on 26 man if Blewett or Dobnak do not get the DFA I think either could get optioned, not 100 percent on options left for them. 

Funderburk DFA? He'd be claimed instantaneously. Pre-arb. 2 more option years, 2027 earliest eligibility for arbitration 1.

Dobnak could get DFA'd, but the Twins clearly trusted him more than Boushley or Plutko, and right now, the depth in the rotation is thin ice. Dobnak probably wouldn't get claimed at this point so it's likely he'd pass through. Caleb Thielbar is certainly on the short list as well for veteran players.

Kirilloff is a potential DFA as he's going to be non-tendered this offseason. Ronny Henriquez, maybe Matt Canterino given the fact he hasn't pitched competitively in years and he's already 26.