Why the Minnesota Twins Should Explore Trading Away Max Kepler at the Trade Deadline

[Matthew Taylor]

We are about a month away from the trade deadline, and while the Minnesota Twins will surely be buyers, it might actually make a lot of sense for them to look at trading away their longtime right fielder. Here’s why.

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Max Kepler recently broke the record for career home runs at Target Field. He has been an important member of the Minnesota Twins and will likely be inducted into the Twins Hall of Fame one day. All that withstanding, the Twins would benefit from parting ways with their veteran left fielder and trading him away this July as they prepare to make a postseason run this Fall.

The first reason the Twins should consider trading away Max Kepler is that he is an impending free agent and will likely leave the team at the end of the season anyway. Trading Kepler could be a way for the Twins to recoup some assets for a player who will be gone at the end of the year. It's smart to get something in return rather than letting him walk for nothing (save for potentially a comp pick. More on that later.)

Second, the Twins have plenty of depth when it comes to left-handed corner outfielders. Trevor Larnach is already a regular in left field. Additionally, Matt Wallner is knocking down the door to the majors with the Saint Paul Saints. Since the calendar turned to June, Wallner has posted a 1.190 OPS with 11 home runs and 25 RBI in 20 games for the Saints. Wallner outperformed Kepler in the majors last season, posting a .877 OPS in 76 games. Given how Kepler has looked at the plate over the last month (.179/.239/.274 slash line), I would bet on Wallner out-producing Kepler for the remainder of the season. In addition to Wallner, the Twins have DaShawn Keirsey, who is excelling at Triple-A with a .937 OPS in 48 games and excellent speed and defense. The depth is there, making Kepler more expendable.

Another reason the Twins should consider trading Kepler is that it might be the only way to afford veteran talent at the trade deadline. The Twins' ownership group made it clear that there was a strict (self-imposed) cap on spending this offseason. It’s unclear if ownership will be willing to increase spending. Given the worsening television deal since the offseason, there's a decent chance they won’t invest more money into their contending team. Similar to how the Twins traded away Jorge Polanco this past offseason to bring on Carlos Santana, they might consider trading Kepler and the $4 million he’ll be owed over the second half of the season to either acquire a bullpen arm like Kyle Finnegan, for example, or make payroll room for another need.

While Kepler could be deemed expendable by the Minnesota Twins, he would certainly bring value back to another team pushing for the postseason and looking to shore up their outfield. Kepler has a high-upside bat that we saw over the second half of last season, is a borderline Gold Glover in right field, and has the ability to play capable centerfield if the right team can convince him to do so. The left-hander is still just 31 years old, and as a guy who has spent the past 15 years with the same organization, they could certainly get a jolt in the arm with a change in scenery.

A few teams come to mind as potential trade partners for Kepler. The Kansas City Royals and Atlanta Braves (sans Ronald Acuña Jr.) are both contending teams who could use help in the outfield and might be interested in Kepler as a potential trade deadline addition. The team that might make the most sense as a trade partner, though, is the Philadelphia Phillies who currently possess the best record in baseball and will certainly be looking to bolster their roster for a potential World Series run this fall. Despite having one of the best offenses in baseball, the Phillies have received poor production from their outfield, which sports the fourth-lowest slugging percentage in baseball (.357). Kepler would immediately slot into a corner outfield spot for the Phillies.

The Phillies have the second-best fWAR in baseball from their bullpen, with plenty of depth that the Twins could explore a trade package involving Kepler and a Phillies reliever. Or, they could bring in a third team to complete the package. Or the Twins could receive prospects to help replenish their farm system if they want to "buy" from another team. Philadelphia has never been afraid to spend money and would have no issues paying Kepler his remaining salary and potentially working out an extension past this season.

Trading Max Kepler would obviously be a big deal that would shock the Twins fanbase, and there are some clear objections that fans could have to such a move.

First, the Twins already lack left-handed hitters. After sending down Alex Kirilloff a couple of weeks ago, Kepler and Larnach are the only true left-handed hitters on the roster. However, in the hypothetical scenario of a Kepler trade, the Twins would replace him with another left-handed bat in Wallner while still having Keirsey in Triple-A as the next man in line. Switch hitters like Willi Castro, Carlos Santana, and soon Brooks Lee give the Twins the flexibility to roster any number of righties or lefties without hamstringing themselves either way.

Second, the Twins might oppose trading Kepler due to the opportunity cost of losing out on a comp pick should they decide to give Kepler a qualifying offer this offseason and he turns it down. While this is a real possibility, there is also a growing chance that Kepler is playing himself out of a qualifying offer altogether. After his hot start, Kepler looks more like the player we saw from 2021 through the first half of 2023 rather than the All-Star caliber player we saw in the second half of 2023.

Lastly, a Kepler trade may not happen simply because this front office has shown how much they value what Kepler brings to the team. After three straight years of articles being written on trading the German right fielder, the front office has stood by his side. or at least demonstrated that they value him more than any offers they've received. The likelihood of them trading him now, in the middle of the season, just months before a potential final playoff run, doesn't seem like a move they would make. That said, this front office has frequently made moves people didn't expect and is great about keeping things under wraps. They could certainly surprise us all once again.

While trading Max Kepler would be a shock to many, there are plenty of reasons for the front office to explore the potential of a deal. Trading away the slumping Kepler would clear the way for Matt Wallner, give the Twins an avenue to upgrade their struggling bullpen without sacrificing prospect capital, and provide a way for ownership to bring on additional salary without breaking their (self-imposed) spending limits. The move makes all the sense in the world.

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Would you consider trading away Max Kepler? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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[Brett]

I hate that this idea makes so much sense.

[Whitey333]

A prudent FO knows that most anyone is tradable for the right return.  Kepler is a good player that could help push a playoff run.  He's also very tradeable. I'm betting he's not traded.

[SaberNerd]

Trading Kepler puts way too much pressure on Larnach/Wallner/Keirsey. None of them have had a full season of being an MLB caliber player.  

For payroll, it's not needed. Other teams will be willing to eat 100% of payroll for a rental.

[Eris]

If Kepler is traded the acquiring team can not make a QO and therefore will not receive any compensation draft pick should he leave via free agency.  Therefore, the Twins probably want trade value equal to the compensation pick, which might be hard to get. 

[tony&rodney]

Watching Wallner's at bats with the Saints in a more critical fashion in the last two weeks alone makes this an easy no. Big Matt has a couple of big holes to exploit. I'm not seeing how he manages to find success at the MLB level. 

You are correct that Max is gone after this season but the value has already been received. We need to enjoy Kepler for the player he is in the next three plus months. 

[HrbieFan]

Until Wallner can prove he can handle MLB pitchers, he is a 4A guy to me. If we are throwing in the towel on the season, then OK let's move our assets 

[IndianaTwin]

So you’re saying the Twins should trade their left (sic) fielder because he’s sucked, but that teams better than us might want him?

[JD-TWINS]

The shock would be a concern to the clubhouse much more than to the fans.

His performance goes up & down over months sometimes…..not very exciting to look forward to through the summer.

A Qualifying Offer from the Twins is not coming since it’s a crazy move - he can and would accept the offer - $20M plus is nuts to offer a guy that will be 32 next year and has big swings in consistency on offense with a much higher % of downswings. He was the MVP of the club for the last 3 months of last year! Nothing now points to relying upon some comeback this year other than just “hope”. He’s capable but no idea how he’ll perform. Would anyone here make him the 2nd highest player on the team going forward in a budget crunch, or anytime? The assumption seems to be, “we’ll just make him a QO and get a draft pick”…..he can accept the offer though.

K.C. & the Twins aren’t making any trades for Kepler.

The Phillies would be a trade partner where the other side may have a real desire for Kepler.

In the end the move makes sense for Twins offense, maybe? That maybe and the certain downfall in defense, along with clubhouse turmoil, will stop the FO from doing anything.

[JDubs]

These articles always feel a bit like talking out of both sides of the mouth. Why should the Twins trade Kepler? Because he's not hitting that well and his great second half last year seems to be a mirage. Why would teams trade for Kepler? He's a great hitter -- just look at his second half last year!

If someone offered an impact bullpen arm for Kepler, I think we'd all make that trade in a second. Which means it would be a lopsided trade in our favor, so I'm not really sure why any other team would do it.

[FargoFanMan]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Watching Wallner's at bats with the Saints in a more critical fashion in the last two weeks alone makes this an easy no. Big Matt has a couple of big holes to exploit. I'm not seeing how he manages to find success at the MLB level. 

You are correct that Max is gone after this season but the value has already been received. We need to enjoy Kepler for the player he is in the next three plus months. 

Plus the Twins need a compliment to all the righties and they’ll go above and beyond to squeeze another second half out of him like he had last year. Unless they are blown away(I’m talking 2 top 100 prospects and someone to replace him) he’ll be a Twin from here on out. No way they bet on Wallner/Larnach/etc. unless they epically fall out of the playoff race in the next month.

[Otaknam]

A team like the Phillies or Atlanta might take a swing at Kepler if they can’t find a better trade.  And Wallner is raking right now in AAA, so there is a least an option at that position. My guess is the Twins keep Kepler and then let him go as a free agent. I see no qualifying  offer on the table, as the price would be high and Kepler would be foolish to turn it down at his age. And ownership has returned to its penurious Pohlad way. 

[CRF]

I honestly think it's way past time to move on from Kep, but I'm betting they keep him. 

[LambchoP]

I like Kepler but we're not going to give him a 20 million dollar qualifying offer, nor should we. Meaning he's gone at the end of the year. If management thinks they can replace his production with Wallner or Keirsey then they should get something back for Kepler. If they can get a solid, set up man type pitcher, maybe with another year of control then I say do it. Even better, maybe we can package Kepler with someone like the hot hitting Severino and top prospect Raya or Soto in exchange for a starting pitcher. If we can swing either of these, I say go for it. Keirsey could be a big spark plug type guy for the team, and I think E Rodriguez will be in the mix next year anyways.

[olerud]

29 minutes ago, JDubs said:

These articles always feel a bit like talking out of both sides of the mouth. Why should the Twins trade Kepler? Because he's not hitting that well and his great second half last year seems to be a mirage. Why would teams trade for Kepler? He's a great hitter -- just look at his second half last year!

If someone offered an impact bullpen arm for Kepler, I think we'd all make that trade in a second. Which means it would be a lopsided trade in our favor, so I'm not really sure why any other team would do it.

****** article,  great comment!

[chpettit19]

I don't see a QO in Kepler's future. The Twins won't risk having to pay him over 20 mil next year.

I also don't see the Twins trading Kepler. They're trying to win and their belief seems to be pretty strongly that veterans are the way to do that unless a prospect gets a chance as an injury fill in and goes off. It also would appear the rest of the league doesn't value Kepler the way the Twins do based on all the trade rumors but no trades happening. The Twins want a certain return for him and have never been able to get it. Doubt that changes now.

[dxpavelka]

None of Larnach/Wallner/Kiersey and I'll even throw in Kirilloff & Margot do anything to inspire me to believe they are capable of creating that little something special that will likely need to come from somewhere to get to the playoffs and succeed after getting there.  Kepler does.  The mere fact that you are looking at contenders possibly trading for him tells you that.  The most likely outcome of trading him is creating a need to replace him.  I hate to beat a dead horse but I will anyway.  Nice to finally be getting a return on the Berrios deal a few years back but what we ignore about that deal is that in the two ensuing seasons we ended up trading assets for Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez all in an attempt to fill the hole in the rotation created when we moved Berrios. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, JDubs said:

These articles always feel a bit like talking out of both sides of the mouth. Why should the Twins trade Kepler? Because he's not hitting that well and his great second half last year seems to be a mirage. Why would teams trade for Kepler? He's a great hitter -- just look at his second half last year!

If someone offered an impact bullpen arm for Kepler, I think we'd all make that trade in a second. Which means it would be a lopsided trade in our favor, so I'm not really sure why any other team would do it.

Agreed. I just don’t think Kepler has a lot of value, not enough to bring in trade someone that will help the Twins this year. More likely a decent but not great AA prospect is the best we can hope for. To get a good reliever for Kepler, probably have to attach a decent prospect like Tanner Schobel. I also agree with the comments that Matt Waller is probably not a great replacement. Frankly, if Kepler went down, I would hope they would give Keirsey the first shot at the position.

I just don’t see a Kepler trade making a lot of sense. I don’t think we get much back in return and there isn’t anyone for whom we need to clear a spot. The best argument is trade him to get something before he leaves in free agency, but that kind of leaves me cold since we have a contending team. I would rather keep him and hope this year‘s second half is a reprise of last year’s second half then trade him for the mediocre return we’re likely to receive.

[Cory j]

Not something I condone. Seems every year it's the same. Trade kepler. Beginning if the year he kept the team in check. Not even a few weeks ago he's walking it off with a win. A month of slumping and he's back into trade talks.

Trade farmer and make room for lee. Seems more viable then relying on wallner who doesn't seem like he lasts in the majors.

[MABB1959]

I hate the BS about not having money to spend.  They don’t want to spend.  I don’t are if they keep him or not.  

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

A prudent FO knows that most anyone is tradable for the right return.  Kepler is a good player that could help push a playoff run.  He's also very tradeable. I'm betting he's not traded.

Well put, thank you.  Consider, of course; but the devil's in the details.  If the FO wasn't a buyer (or was held to a strict budget) in the offseason, it's hard for me to imagine them becoming big spenders at the trade deadline.  In any case, this FO's trade deadline track record is average at best.  One month of Kep performance doesn't make a season.  If he turns it around as he has in the past, they'll get a decent return with a QO this offseason.

[mnfireman]

If Kepler has enough value for another team to add, he has enough value to stay here.

If his bat picks up again, it is the same as adding at the deadline.

 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Agreed. I just don’t think Kepler has a lot of value, not enough to bring in trade someone that will help the Twins this year. More likely a decent but not great AA prospect is the best we can hope for. To get a good reliever for Kepler, probably have to attach a decent prospect like Tanner Schobel. I also agree with the comments that Matt Waller is probably not a great replacement. Frankly, if Kepler went down, I would hope they would give Keirsey the first shot at the position.

I just don’t see a Kepler trade making a lot of sense. I don’t think we get much back in return and there isn’t anyone for whom we need to clear a spot. The best argument is trade him to get something before he leaves in free agency, but that kind of leaves me cold since we have a contending team. I would rather keep him and hope this year‘s second half is a reprise of last year’s second half then trade him for the mediocre return we’re likely to receive.

If Kepler was “hurt” or off the Team tomorrow I think Larnach/Margot play RF ………Martin/Castro play LF ……..Lee/Castro play 2B.

Kiersey may be a September guy?

Wallner, IMO, is behind Lee in any opportunity with big club…….Castro flex’s back to OF.

[Doctor Gast]

I like your rationale, Matthew. This is going to be a seller's market. Meaning that too many teams in the hunt to make the postseason & very few options to buy from. There are a few rumors that competing teams will unload expiring contracts. Kepler will be gone next year, the Twins won't pay the QO to keep him #1 too expensive #2 Kepler isn't worth it #3 Kepler'll take it. So to get something this is the best time to do it.

Since Kepler'll be gone next season, doesn't it make sense to have the one who'll stay have that precious playing time? Not only that'll count for this postseason but also future ones. Besides Kepler's LH bat, he has his calling card glove that any club could use, To replace Kepler's (LH) bat we have Larnach, Wallner & Kiriloff whose D is good enough to play RF. & we have Keirsey to do more than make up for his glove.

I'd like to extend this idea to also Margot, Santana & even Farmer if we can find a trade partner. Yes, these guys are starting to hit, even more, reason to trade them because it's easier to trade them for better pieces. Margot & Farmer will be very easy to replace & Miranda, Julien, Severino & Kiriloff can replace Santana especially if he's due to regress. The money that'll be gained from trading away these players will be considerable. So we can pay for a very good postseason SP salary. Again these guys will be gone next year, so why not give this valuable playing time to someone who'll be here next season?

IMO it makes a lot of sense, so unfortunately, I doubt it'll ever happen.

[Thebigalguy]

Thanks for the thoughtful article. I disagree that trading Kepler makes sense, though. First, he's cold right now; he's not worth much in a trade unless he gets hot. Second, he's a very good right (not left) fielder; Wallner isn't. Third, saving four million isn't peanuts but I don't see it making that much difference if the goal is to improve the team. We have the horses we need and others waiting in AAA. Finally, Kansas City? They're hot on our heels. I'd hate to see Max beat us in a meaningful game and it's very possible to imagine him doing so. I think we stay the course with him and hope the coaches can get him back on track in the batter's box. Buxton and Correa have come round, Lewis is geting it done, and Kepler's resurgence might well put us over the top.

[DocBauer]

A very logical, well thought out idea.

Remember, replacing Kepler in this scenario is a combination of THREE LH bats if Lee, or Julien, comes up to man 2B. Then Castro is freed up for more LF and RF becomes Eallner, Larnach, or Keirsey getting his first shot. (Leaving AK out of the discussion because he's hurt eight now).

How good do the Twins feel about making the 2025 Kepler replacement move NOW vs next year?

But they like Kepler. They're in contention. They aren't going to upset the clubhouse or roster construction at this point. Additionally, I can't recall the last time I saw a contending team trade from their current roster to add to another portion of their roster. Contend while weakening a spot to strengthen another spot? Kepler would be moved for prospects and that doesn't help this year.

[Jim wyllie]

I definitely say no to trading Kepler.  I would generally stand pat at the deadline unless a deal comes along that they can't pass up to improve the team.  They have alot of peaces already and depth.   They aren't going to be a post season juggernaut unless they get on a serious roll at the end.  Also in the AL I don't truly think any team is a true juggernaut right now.  And traditionally most world series winners haven't needed to make big moves at the deadline.

[joefish]

You meant right field, right?

I'd miss Max until someone makes me not miss him. WALLNER?

[bean5302]

It comes down to a few things.
a) Will the Twins make a QO to Kepler? The answer to that is 90% no. He's been a 2 WAR right fielder, heavily assisted by his now declining defense with a league average bat. Even if he turns it on for the second half again and finishes up with 3 WAR again this year, he's probably taking the QO. For a guy who's made $42MM over his 10 years, a $21MM single year payday is going to be pretty amazing, and his age bracket really doesn't change going from a32 to a33 in Free Agency.
b) Let's say Kepler turns down the QO (unlikely). I don't think his contract value exceeds 3-4yrs at $30-36MM. Kepler's not going to get a contract over $50MM. So the most the Twins stand to lose is a Comp B pick.
c) What is Kepler's trade value at the deadline? Is it higher than Comp B, which is the absolute maximum the Twins could potentially hope to get from making the QO? I'd wager a organization 15-20 prospect or a role player on an expiring contract.
d) Can the Twins replace Kepler on the roster? Yes. As of right now, Kepler is a 2 WAR type of player. Wallner, Lee, Julien, Severino, whomever you favor in the Twins prospect list as the next big thing could easily step in and fill a 2 WAR player's shoes.
e) Who gets Kepler in a trade? A potential playoff team. Meaning the Twins will be making a playoff team they'll have to face later potentially better by one Mr. Maximilian Kepler, who can totally afford another ticket with his Porsche. Potential suitors? Probably the Phillies are the best bet. Maybe acquire a guy like Caleb Ricketts to add some catching depth?

Should the Twins make a deal like this? My answer is... probably. Depends on the standings, injury situation, and a willing trade partner where the Twins get an actual return of something.

[tony&rodney]

We can all agree that Max Kepler is inconsistent, often frustrating, and seldom confused for Juan Soto in the batter's box. 

It is fun to dream about the possibilities of the Twins AAA players, but those who believe Kepler can be replaced this season by a player in the organization are dreaming indeed. 

The Twins will be in a competition all season for a playoff position and moving a player that is penned into the lineup for a wish and a hope is just not good baseball management and it won't happen.

We may or may not see Kepler repeat his performance from the second half of 2023 but those odds are more favorable than expecting a miracle from a AAA player.