Why the Minnesota Twins Should Explore Trading Away Max Kepler at the Trade Deadline

A prudent FO knows that most anyone is tradable for the right return.  Kepler is a good player that could help push a playoff run.  He's also very tradeable. I'm betting he's not traded.

Trading Kepler puts way too much pressure on Larnach/Wallner/Keirsey. None of them have had a full season of being an MLB caliber player.  

For payroll, it's not needed. Other teams will be willing to eat 100% of payroll for a rental.

Watching Wallner's at bats with the Saints in a more critical fashion in the last two weeks alone makes this an easy no. Big Matt has a couple of big holes to exploit. I'm not seeing how he manages to find success at the MLB level. 

You are correct that Max is gone after this season but the value has already been received. We need to enjoy Kepler for the player he is in the next three plus months. 

Until Wallner can prove he can handle MLB pitchers, he is a 4A guy to me. If we are throwing in the towel on the season, then OK let's move our assets 

These articles always feel a bit like talking out of both sides of the mouth. Why should the Twins trade Kepler? Because he's not hitting that well and his great second half last year seems to be a mirage. Why would teams trade for Kepler? He's a great hitter -- just look at his second half last year!

If someone offered an impact bullpen arm for Kepler, I think we'd all make that trade in a second. Which means it would be a lopsided trade in our favor, so I'm not really sure why any other team would do it.

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Watching Wallner's at bats with the Saints in a more critical fashion in the last two weeks alone makes this an easy no. Big Matt has a couple of big holes to exploit. I'm not seeing how he manages to find success at the MLB level. 

You are correct that Max is gone after this season but the value has already been received. We need to enjoy Kepler for the player he is in the next three plus months. 

Plus the Twins need a compliment to all the righties and they’ll go above and beyond to squeeze another second half out of him like he had last year. Unless they are blown away(I’m talking 2 top 100 prospects and someone to replace him) he’ll be a Twin from here on out. No way they bet on Wallner/Larnach/etc. unless they epically fall out of the playoff race in the next month.

A team like the Phillies or Atlanta might take a swing at Kepler if they can’t find a better trade.  And Wallner is raking right now in AAA, so there is a least an option at that position. My guess is the Twins keep Kepler and then let him go as a free agent. I see no qualifying  offer on the table, as the price would be high and Kepler would be foolish to turn it down at his age. And ownership has returned to its penurious Pohlad way. 

I honestly think it's way past time to move on from Kep, but I'm betting they keep him. 

I like Kepler but we're not going to give him a 20 million dollar qualifying offer, nor should we. Meaning he's gone at the end of the year. If management thinks they can replace his production with Wallner or Keirsey then they should get something back for Kepler. If they can get a solid, set up man type pitcher, maybe with another year of control then I say do it. Even better, maybe we can package Kepler with someone like the hot hitting Severino and top prospect Raya or Soto in exchange for a starting pitcher. If we can swing either of these, I say go for it. Keirsey could be a big spark plug type guy for the team, and I think E Rodriguez will be in the mix next year anyways.

29 minutes ago, JDubs said:

These articles always feel a bit like talking out of both sides of the mouth. Why should the Twins trade Kepler? Because he's not hitting that well and his great second half last year seems to be a mirage. Why would teams trade for Kepler? He's a great hitter -- just look at his second half last year!

If someone offered an impact bullpen arm for Kepler, I think we'd all make that trade in a second. Which means it would be a lopsided trade in our favor, so I'm not really sure why any other team would do it.

****** article,  great comment!

None of Larnach/Wallner/Kiersey and I'll even throw in Kirilloff & Margot do anything to inspire me to believe they are capable of creating that little something special that will likely need to come from somewhere to get to the playoffs and succeed after getting there.  Kepler does.  The mere fact that you are looking at contenders possibly trading for him tells you that.  The most likely outcome of trading him is creating a need to replace him.  I hate to beat a dead horse but I will anyway.  Nice to finally be getting a return on the Berrios deal a few years back but what we ignore about that deal is that in the two ensuing seasons we ended up trading assets for Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez all in an attempt to fill the hole in the rotation created when we moved Berrios. 

I hate the BS about not having money to spend.  They don’t want to spend.  I don’t are if they keep him or not.  

If Kepler has enough value for another team to add, he has enough value to stay here.

If his bat picks up again, it is the same as adding at the deadline.

I like your rationale, Matthew. This is going to be a seller's market. Meaning that too many teams in the hunt to make the postseason & very few options to buy from. There are a few rumors that competing teams will unload expiring contracts. Kepler will be gone next year, the Twins won't pay the QO to keep him #1 too expensive #2 Kepler isn't worth it #3 Kepler'll take it. So to get something this is the best time to do it.

Since Kepler'll be gone next season, doesn't it make sense to have the one who'll stay have that precious playing time? Not only that'll count for this postseason but also future ones. Besides Kepler's LH bat, he has his calling card glove that any club could use, To replace Kepler's (LH) bat we have Larnach, Wallner & Kiriloff whose D is good enough to play RF. & we have Keirsey to do more than make up for his glove.

I'd like to extend this idea to also Margot, Santana & even Farmer if we can find a trade partner. Yes, these guys are starting to hit, even more, reason to trade them because it's easier to trade them for better pieces. Margot & Farmer will be very easy to replace & Miranda, Julien, Severino & Kiriloff can replace Santana especially if he's due to regress. The money that'll be gained from trading away these players will be considerable. So we can pay for a very good postseason SP salary. Again these guys will be gone next year, so why not give this valuable playing time to someone who'll be here next season?

IMO it makes a lot of sense, so unfortunately, I doubt it'll ever happen.

Thanks for the thoughtful article. I disagree that trading Kepler makes sense, though. First, he's cold right now; he's not worth much in a trade unless he gets hot. Second, he's a very good right (not left) fielder; Wallner isn't. Third, saving four million isn't peanuts but I don't see it making that much difference if the goal is to improve the team. We have the horses we need and others waiting in AAA. Finally, Kansas City? They're hot on our heels. I'd hate to see Max beat us in a meaningful game and it's very possible to imagine him doing so. I think we stay the course with him and hope the coaches can get him back on track in the batter's box. Buxton and Correa have come round, Lewis is geting it done, and Kepler's resurgence might well put us over the top.

I definitely say no to trading Kepler.  I would generally stand pat at the deadline unless a deal comes along that they can't pass up to improve the team.  They have alot of peaces already and depth.   They aren't going to be a post season juggernaut unless they get on a serious roll at the end.  Also in the AL I don't truly think any team is a true juggernaut right now.  And traditionally most world series winners haven't needed to make big moves at the deadline.

You meant right field, right?

I'd miss Max until someone makes me not miss him. WALLNER?

We can all agree that Max Kepler is inconsistent, often frustrating, and seldom confused for Juan Soto in the batter's box. 

It is fun to dream about the possibilities of the Twins AAA players, but those who believe Kepler can be replaced this season by a player in the organization are dreaming indeed. 

The Twins will be in a competition all season for a playoff position and moving a player that is penned into the lineup for a wish and a hope is just not good baseball management and it won't happen.

We may or may not see Kepler repeat his performance from the second half of 2023 but those odds are more favorable than expecting a miracle from a AAA player.