What’s Left For Emmanuel Rodriguez at Wichita?

[Ted Schwerzler]

When considering the Minnesota Twins prospects as a whole there is something of a big three and they are all at different stages of their development. For Emmanuel Rodriguez, the start of 2024 couldn’t be going any better, and that begs the question as to when a promotion will be on the table.

 

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge

Walker Jenkins is considered the number one prospect in the Minnesota Twins system, and he is often followed by Brooks Lee. Recently though, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel opined that it’s actually Emmanuel Rodriguez who should be on the same plain as Jenkins, and a rung above Lee. Given the logic behind the thought process, it’s hard to blame him.

While Lee may be the safest prospect to turn into a consistent regular Minnesota has had in years, both Jenkins and Rodriguez have star power potential due to their ability to hit for power and do it all. Rodriguez made his way to Double-A Wichita for the first time this season, and despite being more than three years younger than the league average, he’s making it look like child’s play.

If there is something that Rodriguez has shown throughout the entirety of his professional career, it has been an exceptional amount of plate discipline. Across 217 professional games, the 21-year-old owns a ridiculous .422 on-base percentage. In 34 games with Wichita this season, he’s carrying a .468 on-base percentage and has struck out just three more times than he has walked.

As a substantial power hitter, the ability to take walks is something not often seen in comparison. Given his relative youth and inexperience as a whole, this sort of outcome has him on a trajectory to be something special when ultimately making his way to the major leagues. After launching 16 home runs in 99 games last season at High-A Cedar Rapids, Rodriguez has already knocked seven longballs in limited Double-A action.

It’s hard to fathom a Twins prospect being promoted aggressively, and Rodriguez has spent a year at each stop in the system. Injuries have sapped some of his time on the field, but each new challenge is something he has risen to. The .863 OPS last season for Cedar Rapids wasn’t jaw dropping, but considering his age and overall production, it was clear that a new challenge was needed.

This soon into the Double-A season would be quite a shock to jump up to Triple-A, but Rocco Baldelli’s lack of consistency from his outfield may make it a worthy venture. Matt Wallner has already been demoted to Triple-A and remains an issue there. Trevor Larnach is doing alright, but not consistently showing the power Minnesota expects from him. Byron Buxton’s availability remains a constant uncertainty, and we have already seen that Willi Castro isn’t a center fielder.

Getting Rodriguez to the big leagues from Double-A isn’t going to happen with 34 games as a 21-year-old under his belt. Aggressively promoting him to Triple-A could set up an opportunity to see how he fares while knocking on the doorstep though, and that may answer some of the final questions he has in front of him.

Going into the year it seemed unlikely that the Twins would have a reason to consider Rodriguez in 2024. He’s on the 40-man roster though, and has done everything right when pushing for playing time beyond Double-A. If there’s many more things he’s expected to do in Wichita, the list can’t be long.

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

Good article about a good prospect.

[DJL44]

The Twins are likely to send Larnach down when Lewis comes back. That puts Wallner, Larnach, Keirsey and Martin in the St. Paul outfield. One of them can DH but Rodriguez would end up taking playing time away from someone, most likely Keirsey.

 

[Doctor Gast]

If we were desperate he'd be up here. But the addition of Margot with no options makes it difficult to make that leap with Larnach, Kiriloff, Martin & Keirsey ahead of him there is no rush. But his stock is rising IMO looking at the potential ceiling & established floor of Jenkins, Lee & Emma they are very close as far as ranking.

[LambchoP]

Larnach will be optioned when Lewis comes back. This won't happen but after that they should DFAd Margot, call up Keirsey to the majors and move E-Rod to AAA to see what he can do. There is no reason to stick with Margot just because he hits right handed. 

[4twinsJA]

Will be interesting to see how Twins handle ERod and others, There has been some movement, 2 pitchers from A+ to AA. Seems promotions start around Memorial Day hitting a peak at All-Star break, then a few last month of season. I look for Twins to be patient with ERod but if continues present pace, would hope he gets promoted at least at All-Star break. 

[TopGunn#22]

Hopefully Byron Buxton remains healthy and has a good year for the Twins.  We need it.  But if the inevitable injury happens and Byron is on the shelf for longer than 10-14 days, it may be time to finally promote Keirsey.  If that happens, the time would be right to promote E-Rod from AA to St. Paul.  

I think E-Rod's play has already merited heavy consideration for promotion.  But a corresponding promotion is needed to open a spot for him.  Maybe the Twins should have packaged Wallner in a trade for a bona-fide SP this winter but it's cheating to look at this through that kind of hindsight.  Wallner still remains a viable power hitting/cannon armed corner outfield prospect for the Twins.  But there is a big crowd of present and future Twins jostling for OF positions:  Buxton, Larnach, Kirilloff, Castro (LF), E-Rod, Wallner, Keirsey, Jenkins, not to mention Max Kepler.  Is he gone at the trade deadline?  Not until the completion of this season?  What if Max continues to be the best OF the Twins have?  Will we still send him away or let him walk?

The good news is that we're not looking at some of the dregs we have in the past to play OF.  The not so good news is that some decisions need to made in the not too distant future, certainly within 2 years.  Who stays and who goes?    

[TopGunn#22]

Should have mentioned Austin martin as part of the OF mix as well.  

[tony&rodney]

I'm not sure Emmanuel is ready for MLB yet. This season has seen some big improvements in approach at the plate, primarily fewer out of control swings and a reduced number of times when he gives at bats away. 

Having watched him hit this year well more than a couple of dozen times (via milb.com) I want to add that the pitchers rarely throw EmRod strikes. The hits come on those few pitches he sees worth swinging at. Umpires must get tired of him taking pitches just off the plate. I would say that I have seen him called out on strikes on at least six occasions on pitches easily out of the zone. Rodriguez does have a bit of trouble with pitches on the outside corner in the upper reaches of the strike zone which means he still has some adjustments to make. He could learn to drive those pitches to left field. Right now the contact on pitches away are primarily more towards centerfield. Nevertheless, EmRod is probably ready to see AAA pitchers. He may have to wait until some time in June or July but it certainly would not being rushing him to get a promotion now.

[JDubs]

I love Jorge, but hopefully people can finally see that the trade made some serious sense. It was so frustrating in the early going to have so many idiots saying some variation of "they traded Jorge for an injured pitcher?!?" No, they traded him for a stud prospect, a decent reliever, and some guys, one of whom was an injury plagued 5th starter. It's obviously too early to call the trade a win, but considering that Jorge has so far produced -0.1 WAR and Emma is climbing up the prospect ranks (not to mention Julien holding down 2B pretty well), it certainly seems like Falvine might have known what they were doing.

[HrbieFan]

45 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

If we were desperate he'd be up here. But the addition of Margot with no options makes it difficult to make that leap with Larnach, Kiriloff, Martin & Keirsey ahead of him there is no rush. But his stock is rising IMO looking at the potential ceiling & established floor of Jenkins, Lee & Emma they are very close as far as ranking.

Margot needs to start hitting and playing better D or he will be DFAd 

[dxpavelka]

33 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Should have mentioned Austin martin as part of the OF mix as well.  

And they may have done so by NOT doing so.

[VikingTwinTwolf]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins are likely to send Larnach down when Lewis comes back. That puts Wallner, Larnach, Keirsey and Martin in the St. Paul outfield. One of them can DH but Rodriguez would end up taking playing time away from someone, most likely Keirsey.

 

Spot on.  But now super stars don't need AAA.  Kent Hrbek didn't play AAA and Pucket only played 21 games at AAA.  

[DJL44]

37 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Umpires must get tired of him taking pitches just off the plate.

Why is it that umpires always get tired of the batter not swinging? Why don't they ever get tired of the pitcher nibbling and refusing to throw strikes? It is an interesting psychology question.

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, JDubs said:

I love Jorge, but hopefully people can finally see that the trade made some serious sense. It was so frustrating in the early going to have so many idiots saying some variation of "they traded Jorge for an injured pitcher?!?" No, they traded him for a stud prospect, a decent reliever, and some guys, one of whom was an injury plagued 5th starter. It's obviously too early to call the trade a win, but considering that Jorge has so far produced -0.1 WAR and Emma is climbing up the prospect ranks (not to mention Julien holding down 2B pretty well), it certainly seems like Falvine might have known what they were doing.

This seems like a digression. Emmanuel Rodriguez was not part of the Jorge Polanco trade.

[jmlease1]

I think Rodriguez should be strongly considered for a mid-season promotion to AAA, especially if he keeps hitting like this. Goodness, he's been better in AA than he was in high A. Sure, the Texas League is a hitter's environment, but he's 21 and crushing it. He still strikes out a lot, but when you're drawing almost as many walks as Ks, hitting .280 and have an OPS of 1.054...are we really that worried about the K's?

 

[wabene]

16 minutes ago, JDubs said:

I love Jorge, but hopefully people can finally see that the trade made some serious sense. It was so frustrating in the early going to have so many idiots saying some variation of "they traded Jorge for an injured pitcher?!?" No, they traded him for a stud prospect, a decent reliever, and some guys, one of whom was an injury plagued 5th starter. It's obviously too early to call the trade a win, but considering that Jorge has so far produced -0.1 WAR and Emma is climbing up the prospect ranks (not to mention Julien holding down 2B pretty well), it certainly seems like Falvine might have known what they were doing.

The prospect in the trade was Gabriel (Gabby) Gonzales not Emanuel (Emma) Rodriguez. Warning some people around here don't like it when you call Rodriguez Emma, but nobody seems to mind Gabby for Gonzales, go figure. If you ask me, ERod is more annoying, lol. Like it matters

[chpettit19]

24 minutes ago, JDubs said:

I love Jorge, but hopefully people can finally see that the trade made some serious sense. It was so frustrating in the early going to have so many idiots saying some variation of "they traded Jorge for an injured pitcher?!?" No, they traded him for a stud prospect, a decent reliever, and some guys, one of whom was an injury plagued 5th starter. It's obviously too early to call the trade a win, but considering that Jorge has so far produced -0.1 WAR and Emma is climbing up the prospect ranks (not to mention Julien holding down 2B pretty well), it certainly seems like Falvine might have known what they were doing.

Emmanuel Rodriguez what not part of that trade so I'm not sure what his success has to do with that trade.

[wabene]

I have a feeling JDubs got the message, lol.

[bean5302]

Rodriguez (LHB) is raking.
.280/.469/.585 OPS 1.054 wRC+ 185 25.6% BB, 28.1% K, .394 BABIP
vs.
.300/.441/.490 OPS .931 wRC+ 144 19.3% BB, 24.6% K, .393 BABIP (Julien at AA)

This is the concern with Rodriguez and continues to be the concern. Feasting on mistake pitches or only pitches in a handful of locations is Julien's MO, and there's a great deal of concern on whether or not Rodriguez's play style will be exposed by pitchers who have a much higher command of their pitches (MLB). 

If we were to work on a 1-5 scale for stuff, command and control
A Ball - 2 stuff, 2 control, 1 command
A+ Ball - 3 stuff, 3 control, 1 command
AA Ball - 4 stuff, 4 control, 2 command
AAA Ball - 4 stuff, 5 control, 3 command
MLB Ball - 5 stuff, 5 control, 5 command <--- it's the command that kills guys like Julien/Rodriguez.

I'm not sure there's a lot left for Rodriguez to prove in AA anymore. He needs to see more polished pitching. Guys in AAA are generally a step up in terms of locating their pitches, but it's not like Rodriguez has a scouting report book built yet.

[saviking]

This is off-topic, but Miranda has been quietly good this year. Doing what we hoped he would do last year yet nobody is talking about him.

[High heat]

The Twins are going to have to make some decisions on  MLB/AAA outfielders soon before ERod can go to AAA.  

Is Larnach a big league starter? 

What value to Margot have, time to cut your losses.

 

Is Kersey a big league 4th outfielder? Or just a AAAA player.

Whats the deal with Walner at 26 is he in the same boat as Larnach.   

My opinion is to cut ties with Margot use the spot for Kersey. 
 

Larnach has less then a month to prove he is atleast better then Kersey and Martin before time to send him down and probably out of the organization.

ERod is a full yr in the minors left.  Would like to see it at AAA though.  See if he is the Kepler replacement in’ 25.

[mrtwinsfan]

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Should have mentioned Austin martin as part of the OF mix as well.  

Myself i would rather see Martin , have zero to do with the Outfield  other than a emergency option, he has good Talent  and zero outfield arm,  want to see his future at 2b let him play there   alot -- to see what we got , im not a Fan of Julien  long term, between the 2 of them - lets get rid of Kyle Farmer and use martin and Julien for now , Gotta find out ??  what we got

[D.C Twins]

ERod progression should not be slowed by any of these other players mentioned (Wallner, Martin, Larnach, Mar-got-to be DFA'ed). 

The trajectory of high ceiling difference makers should not be slowed by average to slightly above average players.

[KBJ1]

IDK if E Rod is/will be a Star, but given the lack of talent we have had in the OF pipeline, one can only hope!

Plenty have made the AA to Major league jump and it might be fun to bring him up for a game (extra man for a double hitter) just to see what he can do.

We could use a miracle like he goes 4 for 4 and never looks back!

We can dream😊

[Rosterman]

ER will need to get AAA atbats in 2024. The Twins are aleady eating oen of his 40-man seasons and it does ERod little good not to face a higher quality of competition. I doubt he would get a call-up this season, but must be ready to show his stuff in spring training and, at least, allow the Twins to make some hard decisions on Wallner, larnach and Kirilloff going forwards.

[gman]

I would expect Erod to be up early next year at the latest, which means there will be some movement before then. If the Twins were running away with the division, it would be easier to plan on bringing him up earlier this year. Doesn't look like that will happen since the schedule is a third of the way done.

When he gets moved to St Paul, he could bounce back and forth between AAA and the Twins to slowly get him adjusted to the major league clubhouse. Of course if he tears the cover off  the ball at both stops, there won't be any questions about sending him back down.

[twinstalker]

First, no ERod.  Do you know how many there are out there?  The natural is EmRod.

Listen, I have EmRod on 5 of my 6 fantasy teams.  I'm hopeful for him, but as one or two have said above, the game isn't easy for guys who strike out at too high a rate in the minors.  They don't really improve that without a complete overhaul.  Or a long, steady working it out over many years.  They do often make a splash, though.

I think instead of promoting EmRod, they need to work on his K rate at AA.  He clearly can mash what doesn't confuse him.  That superpower will always be with him.  He needs, in a non-pressure situation such as AA, to figure out why he can't stop striking out.  He has to, or once pitchers figure out his weaknesses, it's going to be ugly.

That's what should have happened with Julien, too.  I just don't understand how teams can ignore K rate.  Look at how they promoted Larnach all the way to the majors ignoring it, and now he's doing everything he can to finally learn before he becomes an ex-ballplayer.  But doing it on the Twins time.

 

Keep EmRod at AA until he proves he can solve the best pitchers there.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, twinstalker said:

First, no ERod.  Do you know how many there are out there?  The natural is EmRod.

Listen, I have EmRod on 5 of my 6 fantasy teams.  I'm hopeful for him, but as one or two have said above, the game isn't easy for guys who strike out at too high a rate in the minors.  They don't really improve that without a complete overhaul.  Or a long, steady working it out over many years.  They do often make a splash, though.

I think instead of promoting EmRod, they need to work on his K rate at AA.  He clearly can mash what doesn't confuse him.  That superpower will always be with him.  He needs, in a non-pressure situation such as AA, to figure out why he can't stop striking out.  He has to, or once pitchers figure out his weaknesses, it's going to be ugly.

That's what should have happened with Julien, too.  I just don't understand how teams can ignore K rate.  Look at how they promoted Larnach all the way to the majors ignoring it, and now he's doing everything he can to finally learn before he becomes an ex-ballplayer.  But doing it on the Twins time.

 

Keep EmRod at AA until he proves he can solve the best pitchers there.

EmRod sounds too much like Nimrod... LOL

[Jocko87]

7 hours ago, VikingTwinTwolf said:

Spot on.  But now super stars don't need AAA.  Kent Hrbek didn't play AAA and Pucket only played 21 games at AAA.  

That you had to go back to the 80s should tell you something.

The only possible reason he might come up is that he's on the 40 man and they didn't have another move. He would not have been on the 40 except for the rule 5 protection.

He'll get torn apart in the bigs but AAA in September is likely.  Let Jackson Holliday be a lesson. Emma is a great prospect but too fast won't help.