It’s Time to Reevaluate the Minnesota Twins' Top-Ranked Prospect

Considering that Jenkins and Lee JUST came off the IL and are playing again I would say that it's much too early to start reevaluating where they are in the rankings. Let's check back in another 2 or 3 months and maybe that will be worth discussing. 

Timely article Cody, I was thinking the same thing. Emma has risen in the national polls. He has answered the question marks of can he stick in CF & can he hit high Milb? He has shown that he do all that & then some. These guys are very close. I agree, when you look at ceiling I'd rank Jenkins, Emma & Lee. Floor it'd be Lee, Emma & Jenkins, Lee & Emma have very little to prove now while Jenkins still have a lot to prove. IMO the early prolonged injuries to Lee & Jenkins has taken some shine from them. I maybe alone in my rankings but I'd place them Emma, Jenkins, Lee.

I'd probably still lean towards Lee over E-rod mainly because of the k rate, its not awful but I don't see him walking at a 25%-30% clip once he's in the MLB, does that result in more contact and the k rate hanging in the high 20s which is manageable given his power. Or does it start to climb into the mid 30s as better pitcher are able to target the holes in his swing that seem to be there with more accuracy. Jenkins for me is still the number 1 until something dramatic happens to convince me he's not going to figure it out.

I think ERod needs to be tested at AAA and Jenkins and Lee just both need at bats to catch back up after missing so much of the season. Let's see where we're at at the trade deadline.

What is the obsession with rankings? How does it matter? There must be a ranking article of some sort weekly. Wouldn’t it be better to have an article about Rodriguez and his assets that stands alone. The following discussion would be about the readiness of his major league glove in centerfield and whether he might be able to stay in centerfield. Does he need to be more aggressive at the plate before he arrives? Are there certain pitches where he struggles? Will he be an asset on the basepaths? 

All these players are worthy of their own discussion.

it amazes me when you see writing about a kid tearing up AA ball and he's hitting/slashing only .262.. that does not and will not translate into an MLB star..just another average MLB player that strikes out 30% of the time. Hoping he proves me wrong

I am getting older and my memory isn’t what it once was, but I recall the early assessments of Polanco as a young prospect being

“defensively he is ready for MLB right now. The question is whether he will be able to hit. “

Now as he turns 30 the view has flipped. A good hitter who is moving to the right (SS to 2B to 1B to DH). Still a good hitter but with questionable defensive value. 
As young prospects develop their bodies and minds go in unpredictable directions. Sano and Miranda were both drafted as SS’s, although never with the MLB ready defense assessment. As a few folks have mentioned, just give them time. If they avoid their bodies breaking down (Buxton, Kubel) or their heads getting in the way (Sano, Oswaldo Arcia) all 3 have bright futures. 

There are trade ideas floating around & Emma is in a few of them. Personally, I wouldn't trade any of them. If there was an absolute elite SP for sale, the only one I'd consider is Jenkins, Because all we see in Jenkins is upside & value is based on that, his floor is unknown. Again I wouldn't want to trade any of  them unless we were given an offer we can't refuse.

Jenkins had some leg problems in high school but I'm not concerned about injuries with him at this time. He still is looking like a quick riser (very athletic with skills) and hopefully he can get to Cedar Rapids at least. I'm hoping I can tune in (milb.com) to him this weekend if the Twins let him play for Ft. Myers.

Brooks Lee just needs to be healthy and he should make his way onto the roster by August. Back problems are always troublesome but athletes work hard to strengthen their bodies in ways to mitigate injuries. Whereas Jenkins or Rodriguez may be stars if they progress, Lee is more likely a regular who has great value.

Emmanuel needs a push to AAA, where he will see pitchers throw all kinds of junk his way. He will need to make some adjustments at AAA, but will benefit from the ABS/ Challenge System. If you watched 25-50 of EmRod's at bats you will see some patterns. In AA, the pitchers are rarely throwing pitches over the plate to him. He probably leads all of baseball in strikes called on pitches out of the zone. He is a little stiff and has some trouble with pitches just off the plate away which result in swings and misses. In AAA, these will be called balls. Emmanuel does need to make better decisions on pitches early in counts where a pitcher occasionally challenges him. This is often where he is passive. He also still takes out of control swings at time but much less than last year. There is still work to do for the 21 year old but I believe you will see prospect writers begin to push him higher on lists because Rodriguez has made some improvements in his game from last season. As of right now, AA is below his level. He needs a new challenge.

It's tough to judge when 2 out of the 3 have been injured for the entire season so far.  However, Jenkins is still clearly the #1 guy.  The realistic expectation of him, once he gets on the field, is that he will continue to rake and continue to impress all the way to finishing this season in AA.

Lee's herniated disc worries me, but if Julien continues to struggle and certainly if Farmer continues to disappoint, Lee will be with the Twins within a month and he'll stick.

The only guy actually playing in this comparison is E-Rod. Please stop with "Emma" guys.  You write that and the image I get is of Gwyneth Paltrow, NOT Emmanuel Rodriguez!!  I don't yearn to see Gwyneth roaming in CF and crushing tape measure HR's.  (if there is a sarcasm font, I couldn't find it).

In all seriousness, it's probably time to promote E-Rod to St. Paul and see how it goes.  He and Kiersey can split time in CF and the corners to prepare either, or both, for an eventual call-up.   

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The obsession is this is a competitive game. The best and highest ranked players get more playing time. They get more fanfare. They get more compensation. They get more opportunities to succeed if they initially fail.

Do you think organizations spend time and resources ranking their players? If the rankings were of any value at all they would be pretty stable. If they change as much as the recent TD top prospects after less than two months of play then they had little value to begin with. 

Many were saying, "wait until Emma Rodriguez gets to AA, that's where the holes in swing will show." Now, it's changed to, "wait until he gets to AAA or MLB, that's where his swing and misses will not work." Emma has speed, power, knows the strike zone, plays great defense (maybe not elite in CF??). I'm very excited about him. He's rated #10 in all of baseball prospects!! Love Lee and Jenkins as well. Moved Emma to #2 just because Lee had this back injury.

6 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Many were saying, "wait until Emma Rodriguez gets to AA, that's where the holes in swing will show." Now, it's changed to, "wait until he gets to AAA or MLB, that's where his swing and misses will not work." Emma has speed, power, knows the strike zone, plays great defense (maybe not elite in CF??). I'm very excited about him. He's rated #10 in all of baseball prospects!! Love Lee and Jenkins as well. Moved Emma to #2 just because Lee had this back injury.

If he's a good player in MLB, we'll be lucky.  Not saying he couldn't be, but data don't lie.  His profile doesn't work well in the majors.  I mean, who's going to walk him?  He's interesting enough to get a little excited about, but I'd temper expectations.  They're going to strike him out A LOT.

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

...you think they don't?

They absolutely, 100%, guaranteed rank their players one way or the other. A player's trade value depends greatly on their rankings. They may not rank them in order of 1-20 or whatever, but they definitely rank them because MiLB prospects are liquid  team assets, plain and simple.

It is the ordering that prompted my original comment. 

23 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

What is the obsession with rankings? How does it matter? There must be a ranking article of some sort weekly. Wouldn’t it be better to have an article about Rodriguez and his assets that stands alone. The following discussion would be about the readiness of his major league glove in centerfield and whether he might be able to stay in centerfield. Does he need to be more aggressive at the plate before he arrives? Are there certain pitches where he struggles? Will he be an asset on the basepaths? 

All these players are worthy of their own discussion.

I like this idea. An in depth dive into a prospect would be interesting and more useful than subjective rankings. 

14 hours ago, twinstalker said:

If he's a good player in MLB, we'll be lucky.  Not saying he couldn't be, but data don't lie.  His profile doesn't work well in the majors.  I mean, who's going to walk him?  He's interesting enough to get a little excited about, but I'd temper expectations.  They're going to strike him out A LOT.

Kyle Schwarber? He doesn't even run the bases or field and the Phillies are unlikely to DFA him. Julio Rodriguez?

There are players who strike out in MLB. I am not a fan of Ks but the game has evolved. Unless umpires noticeably change the zone for a rookie, anyone with a good eye can draw walks. Joey Gallo should be playing in a Men's League but teams keep offering him millions so he suits up. He has more walks than hits (16W/12H) with 54 Ks and a .122 BA (which apparently is not important) in 117 PA. 

Emmanuel Rodriguez is physically prepared to play every day in MLB. He still has a season of work to do in the minor leagues on cleaning up the mental part of the game. EmRod has improved since last year. Most notable is that he is less prone to taking crazy wild out of control swings and he has become better at not giving away at bats. If umpires call the strike zone reasonably, EmRod will be just fine when his time comes.