Here's the Early Scoop on New Twins Prospect Phenom Vahn Lackey

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images

Just over a month ago, on July 11th, the Twins selected Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey with the third overall pick in the MLB Draft. It was a momentous occasion, marking the seventh time in Twins history — third in the last 25 years — that they've had a top-three draft pick. Lackey instantly became one of the stars in the system and one of the most compelling prospects in the minors.

Here's a (very) early look at how his professional career has unfolded since the Twins called his name.

A Historic Signing Bonus 

After selecting him third overall, behind Roch Cholowsky and Grady Emerson, the Twins wasted little time getting Lackey signed and into the organization. Within 10 days of the draft, the club had signed its entire class, including Lackey who received a $9,497,500 bonus. While slightly below slot ($9.7M), it was briefly the second-largest in MLB history (behind Cholowsky) before Emerson signed and pushed him to third.

This isn't all that noteworthy because, as the sentence above indicates, these records are basically reset at the top of the draft every year. Still, a fun factoid. Signing Lackey slightly under-slot helped the Twins spread their draft pool around — combined with the under-slot deal they struck with second-rounder Carson Tinney, it helped enabled Minnesota to reel in third-round pitcher Ethan Wachmann for more than double his slot value at $2.25 million.

“Just a great fit for our organization, on every front. Fantastic player, fantastic human being, great character.” - Twins scouting director Sean Johnson on Lackey (via MLB)

 

An Emphatic Arrival in Prospect Rankings

In Twins Daily's top prospect tracker (voted on by our creator community), Lackey immediately jumped in at No. 2, behind only Walker Jenkins. In a high-caliber farm system like this one — ranked sixth in baseball by FanGraphs — that's a strong place to debut. 

In Baseball America's latest prospect rankings, Lackey is also behind only Jenkins among Twins prospects, ranking 23rd overall (three spots ahead of recently-promoted Kaelen Culpepper). Jenkins ranks 10th, putting him at the elite prospect tier, while Lackey is right on the borderline. Keith Law of The Athletic is slightly more bullish on Lackey, ranking him 20th — one spot behind Jenkins, and one spot ahead of Cholowsky.

MLB Pipeline has yet to release their post-draft update, but for context, last year they ranked third overall pick Kade Anderson 22nd overall in mid-August, nearly identical to where Lackey initially finds himself on the BA and Athletic boards. Anderson, a left-handed pitcher in the Seattle system, has been a quick riser and is now up to fifth overall in MLB Pipeline's current rankings.

On the flip side, the No. 3 pick in 2024, Charlie Condon, debuted at 12th in those rankings (ahead of even first overall pick Travis Bazzana) but has struggled enough since to fall to 69th. Despite being drafted as a college star, Condon is the only player from the top nine of the class who's yet to reach the majors. Just a reminder that pre-draft hype is what it is, and that's really all we have to go on so far for Lackey, who has barely played in the minors yet. But there is a small sample's worth of performance to analyze.

"Lackey might end up a plus defensive catcher with plus power and a plus hit tool, which may as well be a jackalope given how rare that profile is." - Keith Law, The Athletic

Early Results in the Minors

Shortly after signing, Lackey was assigned to Low-A Fort Myers, where he made his pro debut on July 30th. In his first game, the 21-year-old flashed a couple of his highly touted tools, drawing two walks and stealing a base. Since then he's played nine more games, and in that short time, it's been his defense more than his offense making highlight reels. 

Through 46 plate appearances, Lackey is batting .206 with only three extra-base hits, the first of which was a grounder chopped down the third-base line for a double. He's holding his own mainly thanks to a disciplined approach yielding an 11-to-8 K/BB ratio and .391 on-base percentage. 

What's really been eye-catching about Lackey in his initial action is the defense, and specifically his throws from behind the plate. Opponents have attempted eight steals against Lackey and he's gunned down five of them (38%), backing up his rep as a cannon-armed controller of the run game. The dude pops up and throws absolute peas. 

 

Much like on the offensive side, the sample is far too small to be worthy of drawing any serious conclusions, but it's a good reminder of Lackey's legit defensive skill set, which makes him nearly a lock to remain at catcher with Gold Glove potential. That element of his game is hugely important, because it will keep Lackey high on prospect lists even if his bat is a little slower to develop. 

What's Next for Lackey

I would consider it unlikely that Lackey remains at the Low-A level much longer. Fort Myers is a fine place to get his feet wet, especially given it's the location of the organization's minor-league complex, but it's also a fairly conservative assignment for a top-three draft pick out of college. He could move up to High-A Cedar Rapids in the near future.

The seasons for both Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids run only through the first week of September. Double-A Wichita goes through the second week, and Triple-A St. Paul the third. Is it possible the Twins could give Lackey a late-season taste of the high minors, as they did with Brooks Lee when he played a couple of games in Double-A in 2022?

Either way, he'll be set to open up his first full professional season at Wichita, as Lee did. From there, the major leagues is really only a step away, making a 2027 MLB debut plausible. A more likely scenario is that comes up in his second full season, as Lee did, but either way, Lackey's advanced talent and polished will enable him to hop on the fast track if he's up to it.

View full article

[DJL44]

No reason to rush him to AA this season. His NCAA season started in February.

[thelanges5]

All these guys also had to ramp down and are ramping up now at Ft Myers. They had 2 or more months off between the end of the college season and the draft.