What are the Twins Expecting from Trevor Larnach?

55 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Keep throwing things against the wall, hopefully something sticks.

This might be snark, but I'm all for it. Larnach struggles? Go to E-Rod, Keirsey, Williams, Prato, Helman.

You can do this with Wallner and Julien and Miranda if needed, you don't paint yourself into a corner. You can't do it with Margot and Santana; you're stuck with them.

13 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

It isn't snark, it is the current reality.  The Twins decided to move away from keeping/signing established players this past offseason and roll with a number of relatively unproven players with potential.  You have to accept the results.

The Twins obviously do not have as much faith in the youth movement as the fans.  Why else did they go out and sign DeSclafani, Margot, Santana, keep Farmer instead of rolling with the "prospects" in AAA?

Outside of the Correa/Donaldson types, I haven't been a fan of the established offensive players they acquire anyway.

The difference in production between third tier free agents or trade targets and the internal options tends to be minimal at best and then you lose all flexibility.

2 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Here's what's funny. When he was sent down last year he was leading the team in RBIs so it wasn't just he was struggling, but he had options. Did he deserve to get sent down last year? Less than Wallner does now. Wallner has done nothing. Right now he has too many people in his ear. The best thing he can do is go down and get some confidence. 

Larnach's monthly splits each year are all over the place. He tends to find one good month to perform than tank the rest.

It would be nice if he popped right out of the gate and then they can move him when the other bats come back or someone like E-Rod demands a callup.

Larnach and Wallner are both in very similar spots as far as where their futures go. Wallner's extra options means he's going to have a longer time to figure it out with the Twins moving forward, but they both have books out on them with every MLB team. Everybody knows how to get them out.

Trevor needs to learn to recognize and hit MLB off-speed pitches. Matt needs to learn to hit things on the inner third of the plate and down. Their MLB careers depend on them being able to figure those things out. From all reports they're both incredibly hard workers who put in the effort. I hope they both figure it out. With the Twins preferably.

2 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I don't think they're particularly similar except they play corner OF and they're left handed.

Larnach is a 27 year old line drive hitter with moderate game power who's weak against everything other than the 4 seamer or curveball. He's constantly hurt and lacks the athleticism to be a plus value defender, but his excellent baseball IQ/instincts have allowed him to adequately cover LF. He's a career wRC+96 hitter in 693 PA across 3 seasons while never projecting higher than about a 1.5-2.0 WAR full time player.

Waller is a 26 year old home run hitting elite power bat with no glaring weaknesses against particular pitches. In 352 PA he owns a wRC+ of 129. While he has far more speed and athleticism than Larnach, Wallner lacks the instincts and has often looked awkward in the outfield. Wallner has proven to be pretty durable, logging over 550-600+ PA the past two seasons between MiLB and MLB. Last year, in 254 PA, he projected as a near All Star caliber producer, a guy in that 3.5 WAR full season range. Basically, a better producer than a typical Max Kepler season.

Good thing I didn't compare them in that way then. I said they're in similar spots in terms of where their futures as MLB players go. Didn't compare them as players in anyway beyond the fact that the league knows how to get them out and they have to show they can close those holes or their careers will never take off. 

Larnach struggles against pitch types while Wallner struggles with pitch locations. The league knows that and neither will ever succeed in the majors if they can't make adjustments to the very clear and obvious ways the league is getting them out.

1 minute ago, RpR said:

Last year, Larnach had a 39 percent K rate; this year Wallner has a 68 percent K rate.

Not much more needs to be saidl

Or 34% and 51.5%. But, yes, they both strike out way too much because they can't hit certain pitches or pitches in certain locations.

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Or 34% and 51.5%. But, yes, they both strike out way too much because they can't hit certain pitches or pitches in certain locations.

Also, while new Twins Santana and Margot have reasonable strikeout numbers (and terrible numbers everywhere else) they have career high strikeout numbers. This isn't a coincidence, the Twins are manufacturing a method that makes EVERYONE strikeout more than they should.

4 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

 

Virtually every single hitter in MLB has pitch locations they struggle with. Here's Mike Trout, aka best player in all of baseball not connected to PEDs over the past 50 years. (circa 2022). Struggles against pitches high in the zone. That's 4 out of the 9 zones he doesn't drive well.

I tossed in Wallner last year, just for funsies... strange. Looks a heck of a lot like Trout in terms of these glaring weaknesses you cite.
 

Ok? And? Are you suggesting there isn't a book out on Wallner that you can beat him in and soft down and away? Because that's what every pitcher he faces is doing to him. I have no idea what you're trying to argue with me about.

Trevor Larnach struggles with MLB off-speed pitches so MLB pitchers throw him league leading numbers of off-speed pitches and he struggles. If he doesn't figure that out he won't have a successful MLB career.

Matt Wallner struggles with MLB pitches in and down so MLB pitchers throw him an extreme number of pitches in and down and he struggles. If he doesn't figure that out he won't have a successful MLB career.

Those are my statements. I don't know why you're telling me Larnach and Wallner aren't similar players when I didn't say they were, and I'm not sure why you're bringing up Mike Trout. Matt Wallner has massive holes in his swing and they're being exploited at a staggering rate right now. Trevor Larnach has a real weakness recognizing and hitting off-speed pitches and it's been exploited for years now. If you'd like to dispute those statements feel free. Not sure why you're arguing anything else when that's all I'm saying.