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When Trevor Larnach was drafted 20th overall by the Twins that year, the hope was that the Oregon State Beavers product would move quickly through the organization and provide the team with a solid power/contact combination from the left side of the plate. While Larnach has shown flashes at times, his three major-league seasons have primarily resulted in disappointment. Is there hope that Larnach can still help the Twins?
In 2023, Larnach saw five different pitches at least 94 times: four-seam fastballs (282 pitches), sliders (151 pitches), changeup (121 pitches), curveball (112 pitches), and sinker (94 pitches). Against four-seamers, Larnach had an xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) of .344, with a .519 xSLG (expected slugging percentage) and a 24.8% Whiff. He was also good against sinkers with a .392 xwOBA with a .370 xSLG with a 21.4% Whiff.
Larnach’s biggest downfall has been his inability to hit breaking balls and changeups. His high overall whiff percentage of 36.5% can primarily be attributed to his struggles against non-fastballs; he has a 50% Whiff against both curveballs and sliders and a similarly high 42.6% against changeups. While his 2023 expected numbers (.390 xwOBA and .538 xSLG) were slightly higher against changeups due to a couple of long home runs and a small sample size, his overall body of work suggests he has a difficult time hitting this pitch. Even worse, however, Larnach had a .177 xwOBA and .244 xSLG against sliders and an abysmal .157 xwOBA and .161 xSLG against curveballs.
That was a lot of numbers fired relatively fast, but to sum it up, Larnach whiffs too much against non-fastballs, and when he does make contact, it doesn't produce good results. His low chase and high walk rates suggest that he does a good job laying off these pitches when they are out of the zone, but he struggles to do damage on breaking balls that he should be able to hit.
Even without making technical adjustments, there are a couple of ways to neutralize Larnach’s current flaw of whiffing on breaking balls by changing his approach. One example is Teoscar Hernández’s 2022 season. At that time, Hernández had similarly poor numbers against breaking balls. Like Larnach, he had a high whiff rate, with very low expected production compared to his performance against other pitches. The difference is that Hernández made up for it by decimating fastballs and changeups. He took an approach that had him sell out for fastballs, at the price of whiffing against breaking balls. With that, he produced an .807 OPS with 25 home runs.
The problem with Hernández’s change of approach is that pitchers adjusted in 2023, wherein he saw a slider on 25 percent of all pitches, which was higher than his fastball percentage. With this pitching adjustment, his play steadily declined throughout the season. While it seemed to work for a while, this may not be the best long-term solution for Larnach to replicate.
Another possible adjustment Larnach could make is to find a way to focus on producing hard contact, no matter where the pitch is. Guys like Aaron Judge can get away with having a 45% whiff rate on breaking pitches, because no matter what the pitch is, he squares it up when he touches it. This is an extreme example, as Judge might be the best hitter on the planet, but if Larnach can increase his hard-hit percentage against breaking pitches, the whiff rate becomes less of an issue.
While changes may eventually fix Larnach and make him a good everyday outfielder for the Twins, history is not on his side. Guys like Kris Bryant, Javier Báez, Miguel Sanó, Joey Gallo, and Keston Hiura, to name a few recent cases, have all seen similar issues catch up with them and hinder their career projection. This doesn’t bode well for Larnach if he fails to adjust and fix his problems. He has enough power to help offset a higher whiff rate, but at this point he's not doing enough against non-fastballs to deter pitchers from throwing them. There’s still time for Larnach to figure it out, but he must drastically improve his approach against breaking pitches.
Will Larnach provide value for the Twins in 2024 and beyond, or are his days numbered? Let me know your thoughts on Larnach and his future with the team in the comments! Go, Twins!
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