What Defines Success for Byron Buxton in 2024?

[Ted Schwerzler]

At no point during 2023 did the Twins get the most out of their star outfielder. Come to think of it, at no point was he actually an outfielder. If the team is going to make up for some of their losses this offseason, Byron Buxton has to step up.

Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Last offseason, when the Twins sent Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan, Luis Arraez, and Jorge Polanco to the Mall of America as they debuted their new threads, Buxton talked to reporters about his availability. He is keenly aware of how often he has been injured, but the center fielder noted that he played in 92 games during the 2022 season. That was the most Minnesota had seen him in the lineup since 2017, and the goal was to expand on that.

Buxton wanted to play in more than 100 games last year, and the blueprint focused on his contributions as a designated hitter. After offseason knee surgery, Rocco Baldelli had Buxton in his major-league spring training lineup for only eight at-bats. The Georgia native never played the field, and it wasn’t until late in March that he even looked possible for the Opening Day roster.

Despite the team repeatedly  suggesting that the plan was to have Buxton work back toward contributing in the outfield, that never happened, and his performance as a hitter fell off after a hot start. He wound up on the injured list in August, and didn’t reappear until a pinch-hit at-bat in the postseason that was necessitated by an Alex Kirilloff injury.

Calling Buxton’s 2023 season (in which he contributed just 0.7 fWAR) a success would be wildly misleading. I imagine he agrees, and the front office and Baldelli agree. The problem is that he was, once again, fighting his body, and while Buxton has always remained an incredible competitor, the injuries continue to shred his value.

In the year ahead, Minnesota will look to replace production lost in the form of departures by Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and others. That doesn’t necessarily have to come on the mound, and while Ryan, Bailey Ober, and their teammates can step up, so, too, can the lineup. By his standards, Carlos Correa had an abysmal regular season, and normalizing those results will go a long way toward increased overall production. Buxton falls right in line with that same train of thought.

It was just one year ago that Buxton produced a 4.0-fWAR season, despite playing only those 92 games. In 2021, he contributed a ridiculous 4.1 fWAR in only 61 games. Playing 140 games in 2017 while also providing Platinum Glove defense, Buxton posted his career-best 4.4 fWAR. Looking for a way to generate value like that needs to be how Minnesota and Buxton approach the year ahead. Excellence has to be the unit by which his success is measured.

Logic suggests that availability and opportunity will go hand-in-hand for a player of Buxton’s caliber. If he remains healthy, he should have ample opportunity to produce. While he does have an increasing amount of Miguel Sanó-like outcomes in his plate approach, there is plenty to work with at the dish when he’s right. Everyone involved must ensure Buxton is as close to right as possible, as often as possible. That doesn’t mean just good enough to hit or trending toward playing the field; it’s an all-or-nothing approach now.

There should be no reason to set a target on how many games Buxton can play for Minnesota. We saw firsthand, last season, that being available for its own sake didn’t work. He’s not a designated hitter, and that skillset takes significant patience. Minnesota paid Buxton knowing the injury concerns were baked in, but that means they must get everything they can out of him any time he is able.

Reports have suggested the Twins are pleased with Buxton's prognosis, after yet another offseason surgery. That’s great to hear, but it only matters if it translates to live action. Minnesota must show off a player who can contribute on both sides, during spring training and beyond. If his body gives out again at some point throughout the season, that’s tough, but it’s how things work—trying to play chicken with regards to when or if that happens isn’t a useful strategy.

Success for Byron Buxton in the year ahead shouldn’t be reflected by how many games he plays, whether he is in the lineup, or if he returns to the field. Success has to be a season of multiple wins above replacement. Anything else should feel like it came up short.

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[Otaknam]

Success for Buxton would be to play offensively in 140 games and defensively 120 games. We know he will be injured again. So the only question is how long will he be on the injured list and how many flailing at bats will it take before he gets his timing back when he returns. Given his injury history I’m not optimistic. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Healthy (relatively) and playing in the playoffs at a high level. And not just at dh

[twinfan]

If he stays healthy, everything else will work out. The goal would be 140 games. then you will see 35 homers and 90 RBI and hopefully a .280+ batting average. Oh, and don't forget about 80 walks.

[Mike h]

I agree with your conclusion. Success for Buxton should be measured the same as every other player, not by some level of personal improvement over last year. Any player is a success when he contributes to team wins. Some are just more successful than others.

[CRF]

I'm not even going to go as high as some of you. I'd settle for 100 games played, maybe a little more...in the field and in the lineup. Not constantly as the DH. Hit at least .250 with 20-25 homers and 70-75 rbi. Of course he's going to come up with an owie or three. Just hope they're relatively minor ones and don't need surgical fixes. 

[Karbo]

I just hope he can play the field again. He sure flopped as a DH, so IMO its in the field, on the bench, or on the injured list!

[jmlease1]

I think success means being able to play in the field on a semi-regular basis without needing days off immediately thereafter. If he pulls a hammy and misses 6 weeks that would suck, but it wouldn't be failure to me: things like that happen. But if the knee keeps him off the field for functionally the whole season defensively, then it won't be a particularly successful season, even if he's able to hit well and DH much more often this year. If he is pretty much a DH all season but hits well, then it's a moderate success at best.

Unfortunately, it's the one thing that's not entirely in anyone's control. Byron Buxton can't control whether his knee will finally stop barking at him all the time and swelling up like a balloon after he plays. (We know he's doing the work and following the treatment plans) So even if it doesn't work out any better than last season...I'm not going to blame Buxton. He'd certainly would rather be out there playing, and it's not his fault that right now that balky knee is keeping him from realizing his immense talent.

A big success involves him playing at least 120 games with half or more of them in the outfield. And I have no doubt if he's healthy enough to do that, he'll be healthy enough to hit the snot out of the ball.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Healthy (relatively) and playing in the playoffs at a high level. And not just at dh

You stated my thoughts, Cory. When I 1st looked at the title my response was to play 100 games in CF.

In '22 Buxton hurt his knee not in CF but sliding into 2B. The '22 goal for Buxton is to get him in as many games as possible. So that means to play him at DH & play him in as many games hurt as he could walk onto the field. From the beginning, I advocated not to play him hurt, if he can't play close to 100% shut him down & fix the problem so he can be ready for the postseason, Buxton & Polanco both played severely hurt not only severely affected their production in '22 & eliminated them from our playoff push & severely affected their '23 production & Buxton didn't make it to the '23 playoffs. If their injuries were quickly addressed & given proper rest & treatment they'd have been in a much better situation in '22 & '23.

So we have to reset our objectives away from quantity to quality. 1st objective is to have Buxton healthy in CF for the postseason. 2nd is to have Buxton in CF & limit his DH duties & ABs. During the season when he's hurt take care of the problem right away, don't put a band-aid on it & say we're good. Except for the aftermath of the pre-Paparesta era, '23 was a pretty healthy season. I'm looking forward to an even better '24, healthwise.

[hitterscount]

Counting on Buxton and Kirloff to contribute in anyway is a mistake. If they somehow are able to play on a consistent basis, well then that is a bonus.    

[danielp19653]

Anything over 80 games in the field is way beyond wishful thinking, I'd call a success 80 games in CF and another 40-50 at DH while seeing his OPS+ get back to the 120+ area. There's absolutely 0 chance we ever see Buxton in center for more than half a season with the amount of damage he's accumulated on his body.

[Blyleven2011]

It only matters if he can play the field  ...

His hitting has suffered due to the injuries , play the field and his hitting  should improve  ...

I sure hope the reports are accurate that Buxton  will be close to 100 percent and ready to go in spring training ....

[jjswol]

I would say 130+ games played in the outfield, doesn't even have to be in center field. An easy goal to achieve for most players.

[Eris]

Success would be if the team does not need to plan in advance for his expected absence from CF. 
 

Has the cause of Buxton’s knee issues been made public. 

[tony&rodney]

20 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

Counting on Buxton and Kirloff to contribute in anyway is a mistake. If they somehow are able to play on a consistent basis, well then that is a bonus.    

The Twins need to know that there must be options for CF and 1B. However, we shouldn't lump these two players together. Alex and Byron have had different injuries. Lewis and Buxton aren't necessarily a good comparison either but likely a closer match. Buxton had pretty full seasons in 2013 and 2017. Kirilloff in 2018. Lewis in 2018 and 2019. My best guess is that we can bet more on Lewis and Kirilloff than Buxton for 2024. All three carry risks.

Buxton was hindered by his base (legs) last year to an extreme. His swing wasn't playable. Any production from Byron this year will need to come with a rebuilt swing. Buck still has the quickness, speed, and power to seduce anyone, including Baldelli and Falvey. The production will be an unknown we live with until the results show up on the field. While I might hope he gets MVP votes and believe the talent is there, I wouldn't bet $1 on any end. I am hopeful.

[wabene]

Couple of Buxton myths and they are both tied together:

That mentally Buxton is not suited to DH.

That he takes a while to get his timing back when he comes back from injury.

Yes last year he was not good at the plate when returning, but in other years he would come off the list, without going on a rehab stint, and just smoke the ball. In both cases the only problem is he can't hit when he doesn't have his legs under him. He can DH to give him a reprieve from fielding duties, but he can't when his knee is weak and painful. If Buxton isn't 100% or close to it, sit him. 

The same is true with Polo, if one or more of his ankles aren't right, he can't follow through properly on his swing to drive the ball. 

[DJL44]

2 WAR. He's being paid like a 2 WAR player so success for the Twins is Buxton providing 2 or more WAR to the team.

[TNtwins85]

9 minutes ago, jjswol said:

I would say 130+ games played in the outfield, doesn't even have to be in center field. An easy goal to achieve for most players.

I’ve often wondered if moving him to one of the corners helps him out at all. All we’ve ever heard is he either plays CF, DH or the IL.  I’m sure he’s more than capable to play RF or LF. If it helps him stay healthy even marginally isn’t that something the Twins would explore to maybe get another 15-20 games out of him? Maybe he’s no longer a CF as far as health goes. Maybe it doesn’t make any sense and they’ve looked into the metrics but the fact that he either plays one of two positions ONLY seems short sighted on some level.

[Whitey333]

Byron who?  Good grief here we go again.  Another off season and another round of Buxtons availability to play.  And somehow we still get people telling us he's a superstar.  Come on. He's only had 1 year of 8 as a full time player.all he has done is live on the disabled list.  Yet at 100 million dollars he was signed as a full time contributing player.  Buxton has been a bust.  Yet here we are talking about his playing time and ability. Through no fault of his own he has become an enigma.  It's way past the time to think Buxton can be of help.  He's much more of a liability than an asset after 8 seasons.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

I think success means being able to play in the field on a semi-regular basis without needing days off immediately thereafter. If he pulls a hammy and misses 6 weeks that would suck, but it wouldn't be failure to me: things like that happen. But if the knee keeps him off the field for functionally the whole season defensively, then it won't be a particularly successful season, even if he's able to hit well and DH much more often this year. If he is pretty much a DH all season but hits well, then it's a moderate success at best.

Unfortunately, it's the one thing that's not entirely in anyone's control. Byron Buxton can't control whether his knee will finally stop barking at him all the time and swelling up like a balloon after he plays. (We know he's doing the work and following the treatment plans) So even if it doesn't work out any better than last season...I'm not going to blame Buxton. He'd certainly would rather be out there playing, and it's not his fault that right now that balky knee is keeping him from realizing his immense talent.

A big success involves him playing at least 120 games with half or more of them in the outfield. And I have no doubt if he's healthy enough to do that, he'll be healthy enough to hit the snot out of the ball.

If he has the health I think we all believe the success will come. 🤞

[Larry Janisewski]

32 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins need to know that there must be options for CF and 1B. However, we shouldn't lump these two players together. Alex and Byron have had different injuries. Lewis and Buxton aren't necessarily a good comparison either but likely a closer match. Buxton had pretty full seasons in 2013 and 2017. Kirilloff in 2018. Lewis in 2018 and 2019. My best guess is that we can bet more on Lewis and Kirilloff than Buxton for 2024. All three carry risks.

Buxton was hindered by his base (legs) last year to an extreme. His swing wasn't playable. Any production from Byron this year will need to come with a rebuilt swing. Buck still has the quickness, speed, and power to seduce anyone, including Baldelli and Falvey. The production will be an unknown we live with until the results show up on the field. While I might hope he gets MVP votes and believe the talent is there, I wouldn't bet $1 on any end. I am hopeful.

I agree about rebuilding his swing and get him away form the all or nothing approach we saw last year. He needs to build on his assets or speed and quickness. He has to get away from the Sano-like swing and miss. He should hit in the .275 range or higher. He struck out way to many times last year. 

[mnfireman]

I would say 130+ games played in the outfield, doesn't even have to be in center field. An easy goal to achieve for most players.

There were 39 MLB players who played 130 games in the OF last season, 26 who started 130 games in the OF.

[wabene]

34 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

2 WAR. He's being paid like a 2 WAR player so success for the Twins is Buxton providing 2 or more WAR to the team.

I agree, this should be a baseline in judging his season. Success then would be tied to his performance, the value he provides the team, not the number of games played. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Success mans that he performs like any other player who we would consider a success.  We have to stop with the qualifiers like “play more games than last year”. He is either good and valuable or he’s not.  If he could play like the average of Julien, Lewis, Correa, and Jeffers; I could like that.  

[Thebigalguy]

This is really one of the biggest questions for the Twins' offense. If Buxton and Correa get back on track, the team's ceiling rises with all the other weapons they have. I assume Correa will improve without the plantar fasciitis. We won't know about The Knee, though, until we see Buck in spring training and can judge the shape he's in. I'm cautiously optimistic. Trust but verify.

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

2 WAR. He's being paid like a 2 WAR player so success for the Twins is Buxton providing 2 or more WAR to the team.

Correct. According to FanGraphs 2.0 fWAR is worth roughly $16 MM.

[HoskenPowell]

Buxton has NEVER gave Twins fans the ANY reason to believe in much more than 92 games played.   Those of you who believe you will win the Powerball or in the Easter bunny may hope for more , but his history PROVES you wrong.

ONE time in his career has he played beyond that.

Anything they get out of him will be a bonus. They should NOT include him in any plans. HIs odds of playing 100 games are about the same as his odds of running head first into the CF wall and injuring himself within the 1st 10 games of the year.  I would love for him to prove me wrong.  But I know his career and odds are well in my favor.

Fasted guy on the field and he's only his double digits in SB's 3 times!!!!!! 

[saviking]

Buxton's success should be based on WAR scored per month.  {.75 WAR} per month would be perfect. That's a 4.5 WAR season if he plays the whole year. 

So I'm saying that when he plays, he's an asset to the team regardless of how many months he plays, whether it's one month, two months, or the whole year.

And if he's hurt, he should be put on IR and not pinch hit on one leg. I just don't want him hurting the team,

[Craig Arko]

That this thread is not repeated for 2025.

[Dennesey55347]

Trading him for a starting pitcher. Unless of course we want to revisit this question for the 10th time next off-season.