TNtwins85

The 2026 Minnesota Twins were fun( from my perspective anyway). We got to see a "competitive" team (albeit with a down league overall leading to their contention) heading into the trade deadline. They bought instead of selling giving the fans some hope for a day or two until they came back down to earth. This set up a terrible August ultimately putting them in the position they are in. Not out of it technically but out of it. 6 games out of the division after tripping over their own feet in between second and third base and 4.5 games back slipping on the grass coming around third. As I've watched this team one big thing comes to mind. The thing that drove them in May/June/July that has abandoned them in later July/August and now September. Hitting. As seen too often this season the Twins winning or losing has come down to one thing. Did they score enough runs realistically to win the game? More often than not the answer has been no other than the random 1-2 games a week when the offense just seems to not be able to stop hitting. More often than not the starter will give up a few runs early in the game, the offense will answer back, then they make the opposing pitcher look like Cy Young the rest of the game. Byron Buxton is the one superstar player on this roster but as we've come to learn the past decade he cannot carry a team like a Jose Ramirez or a Vlad Guerrero. Not because he doesn't have the ability but because he simply cannot stay healthy and be expected to play more than 100 games a season. They are losing some key hitters to free agency this winter so they will need to replace these bats somehow. Some of the next wave of hitters can supplant that but the Twins need to infill the ups and downs of the future young guys with some veteran guys as well. If Tom Pohlads words speak true they need to spend money in free agency, make a bold trade or both. First lets look at the free agency route. The Twins will have money to spend if they choose to spend it. The hitter FA class is down this year. I think there are a few fits and none better than Randy Arrozarena. He's not an upper echelon star but he does possess a few qualities that the Twins could use. He's a perennial candidate as a 20-20 guy and he plays. Since exploding on the scene in 2020 he's played 141 games or more in every season. The Twins need that. He doesn't possess elite batspeed but his squared up %, LA sweet spot % and average exit velocity have and still are elite. When he hits it he hits it hard as can be seen in his elite hard hit percentage which has come down this year but still above average as he's upped his batting average this year putting more balls in play yet getting on base more as well. He brought his K% down to an average level this year. He has always walked a fair amount and improved on that a bit this year. I think he pairs well with the current Twins OF/DH projection. a rotation of Arrozarena/ Buxton/ Jenkins/ Rodriguez/ Keaschall provides a perfect mix where you still have 3 capable CFers in Buxton/Rodriguez/ Jenkins while shuffling guys with days off and Arrozarena occupying a mostly DH role with the occasional days in LF. I believe its the perfect mix without blowing up the young core that has emerged. That ultimately means you get rid of the dead weight that is Martin/ Roden/ Wallner/ Larnach. How I don't but that's not the point of this. As far as terms I believe that if the Twins jump on this out of the gate and simply overbid with a a high AAV contract for less years its a win-win. He's projected for roughly a 3-4 year deal in the $60-85 million range. I say offer a 4 year deal for $100 million. Go above and beyond because you want this guy. don't play around the edges to save a million or two. Just go get what you want. Another option would be Seiya Suzuki. He's a year older but offers better fielding value and pairs well with the younger OF's as well. He has an elite BB%, doesn't chase and still barrels the ball up at an above average/top tier rate. He's going to command about the same type of contract as Arrozarena with a 3-4 year deal in the $60-85 million range. I just believe being one year older gives you one less year of above average production. I like Randy better for that reason. I believe the Twins need to spend on someone and yes they probably need another BP guy but I'm not as worried about that as how to hand leads to those guys. As far as trades I would love for them to go out and get a catcher to bridge the gap as its one area they need to improve on and its an area they can improve. Milwaukee is known to flip guys before FA so maybe a package for Contreras is possible. Maybe a package led by one of Rodriguez/Keaschall with Tait in there gets something done? 1B could be an area to find a guy for but there's not really anyone in FA that gets me excited that could legitimately replace Lewis. He's been up and down but we've rode with him this long what's one more year. Especially when he goes into the year knowing he's gonna be the 1B. He's athletic so he can only get better defensively I hope and I just don't see an obvious upgrade without a trade. What do you guys think? Who must they go out and get without blowing it up and looking to improve on this year and be more " competitive."

Half measures have been the story of the Minnesota Twins since the early 2000’s when I started my fandom. Not adding a legitimate starter to pair with Radke. Not adding another “Ace” level pitcher to pair with Johan to win a playoff series. Not adding star level RH bat to split up Mauer and Morneau. Not adding another star level bat rental when Morneau went down in 2010. Not trading star level players when it all fell apart in 2011 to speed up the rebuild. Not adding a star level starter in 2019. Not getting anyone else to help in 2023. Then not building on 2023 and instead scaling back. All while the next star level prospect fell short that you could have used to get these guys. Half measures are the story of the “new millennium” Twins. Hamstringing a championship in the name of “being competitive.” A story as old as time. At least my time as an in depth Twins fan. Unless Tom Pohlad succeeds in “No half measures”, I assume it will be the same.

Just because they’re 2nd in runs doesn’t tell the story of the offense. It’s a facade. In July/August during their playoff push they have continually lost games 2-1, 3-2. Constantly starting out the game behind or not being able to answer back. Early and middle of the year their batting with risp was unbelievable. They didn’t sustain that. I’ve watched almost every game and it tells the same story as the last 3-4 years. The hitters you should rely upon just aren’t getting it done.

Everybody knows the problem. The same problem they had bringing up Jenkins only on another level. They still believe they’re in it and don’t have room on the roster. A. They have a full roster with Martin waiting to return. B. He’s a LHH with a million LHH already on the roster. Until they’re officially out of it he’s not seeing a major league call up. Very simple actually. Yes, it’s dumb and shortsighted but judging from history it’s not his production or his status. It’s everyone else.

Sonny Grey. ‘23

They made exactly the right moves for this team at that time. It was “aggressive” compared to most years in terms of acquiring talent compared to recent memory for a Twins team. As far as “giving it their all”, I believe that term can be lumped in with the term “tanking.” As in any team that doesn’t spend in the top 10 of the league is essentially “tanking” to all the semi-experts around here. Same can be said for “giving it their all” when a team that wasn’t expected to compete kinda does in which case they’re “giving it their all.” This confuses me as I’m not sure which term to believe. Are they “tanking” or “giving it their all?” Followed closely by, “they traded like 25% of the roster last year.” “They traded 30% of their roster at the fire sale!” ”They traded roughly 40% of their roster at last years fire sale!” ”They traded almost half the roster at last years fire sale!”

I was thinking that the whole time I was reading this. A collapse is what happened 2 years ago. This is simply a team that was surprising( as well as a league being surprising in the wrong reasons) and then simply coming back down to earth. This offense without a healthy Buxton was never gonna keep doing the things they were doing. They needed 3 red hot hitters to scrape .500 in June and July. They had zero in August and they played to the expected record. No collapse.

Mmmmm none of this is really true and even in a small sample size of 23 games. He’s a tick better as far as being comparable to what Culpepper and Houston did in their draft year. In watching a good portion of his games in both A and A+ he passes the eye test. His athleticism is superb. I wouldn’t give him a mulligan as far as performance as nobody that was drafted with him are doing any better and in most cases much worse in a small sample. The only comparable is maybe Drew Burress but that’s been driven by a high BABIP. Lots of K’s as well. I don’t know what else you’d like to see out of him at this point. He’s on track. Comparable to other Twins prospects in their draft year. Showing the skills he was drafted for. The Twins are not slow at promotions. That was the Terry Ryan regime 15 years ago. He’s doing everything he needs to. He’s fine. even if he starts next year at A+ he’s fine and is still on track for a 75th percentile outcome of being up by next September.

It was reported around the deadline that he was unlikely to accept the QO. Also, he’s been gearing up for this opportunity for a year. You don’t switch to Boras as your agent a year ahead of free agency and not plan on hitting the market. In the rare case he does that’s almost a perfect scenario. either way I don’t think you can get anything for Caratini unless a team is desperate in spring training.

I would tend to agree and yes, a Ryan Jeffers outcome would be a great outcome. Yet, let’s be honest. Vahn Lackey is wayyy more athletic, competed and thrived against much better competition in college. More polished defensively, better arm. He’s just better. Also, he’s showing exactly what he’s needed to show since being promoted. He’s on the same track as Culpepper and Houston with slightly better results. As far as talent and results he’s on the Jenkins level above the Culpepper/Houston level. ‘27 is pushing it yes, but possible as the article states. If he starts ‘27 in A+ and does just what he’s doing right now he’ll be in AA May/June. A red hot June/July gets him to St.Paul and at that point if he holds his own or better he’s in play for an August/September call up. That’s a 75th percentile outcome I believe with anything higher being he just completely dominates A+,AA and AAA. In which case he’s a top 5/10 prospect globally and gets called up June/July. Rare but possible.

Agreed, he’s shown subtle strides this year between MLB/AAA. If he can take another step in spring training he could be up there with Bradley and Abel to anchor this rotation for years to come. He could be a shutdown reliever but if he takes the next step in his command and limiting walks he could be your best SP come May/June of next year as well.

They’ve gotta do something to trim the fat off this roster. I don’t know if you can get anything for guys like Larnach, Wallner, Roden, Martin, Kremer, Ober or if you simply non tender them. Other than Riley Quick, the minors are not producing the next guys up. Mostly due to injury but it doesn’t seem they’ve had the next guys up emerge this year like other years. The next wave needs to emerge and that might mean packaging some position players and pitchers to bring in some AAA/AA pitchers with some upside who can be the next wave.

The Athletic survey people may be reasonable but like most they probably lack the ability and intellect to understand the issue on anything more than base level. Which is why they are reading the Athletic and taking their surveys in the first place. Speaking of dying industries….

Huh.

Can you please explain then how the league grows exponentially every year. Why teams have historically outpaced inflation by a factor of 11 in valuation. Why attendance for MLB games has risen year over year at a steady pace yet the average ticket price has only risen 260% compared to the NFL at 340% since ‘94 meaning the MLB is more affordable. Also the top valued franchises are littered with NFL and NBA teams. Why? Because they pocket the money they can’t spend on players. Yet still ask for publicity funded stadiums. But I guess that’s gonna create a more even playing field. So you’ve e been told over and over so you might as well believe it right? But Baseball is on the verge of collapse supposedly I guess huh? Why do you think they want a cap so bad? For the good of the game? That’s what they tell you so that must be the truth right? Just like the politicians that tell you they’ll make your life better but never seem to deliver. Hmmmm… seems to me you along with most have taken the bait without ever really looking into the real problem. You think the players are acting in bad faith because they don’t want a cap? Why don’t they want a cap? Because then they’re salaries are capped. The reason people watch the game. The players. When you really dig into it this could all be fixed without a cap/floor. But being creative doesn’t guarantee unfettered cash flow on the levels a cap/floor system would for owners. Is Baseball dying by your words? Absolutely not. Will it if they fight this to the end to get their guaranteed cash windfall. Well, if a lockout that results in losing games next season on the level even close to ‘94 the owners and players stand to lose billions of dollars. So I doubt it. Baseball can be made better yes. But a cap/floor doesn’t fix it in the way you’ve been programmed to think. And yes, you have been programmed to think that. Just like everything else.

Spending money just to spend money and appease fan interest for the last remaining legitimate free agent? I don’t believe for a second Zoll would approve that. Sounds to me Tom Pohlad asked Zoll if making a splash for this guy would be worth it. Zoll responds by saying if it’s a Correa esque deal at say 3 years $25-30M with 2 opt outs knowing Detroit may have a better deal in place if not other clubs too. It’s a shot in the dark. You don’t really want him which is why you don’t commit more years or money but it’s competitive based on off the field and sometimes on the field kerfuffles as well as being a 32 year old pitcher. A shot in the dark if you will. If you get him he probably lengthens your staff and you can probably rely on him at the very least with the numbers he’s put up this year. At best he’s a Cy Young caliber Ace. If you don’t, no harm and no foul. At the time you have a bevy of pitchers and a few with peak Valdez upside as cost controlled young guys. You can then tout you almost got him which is almost better than actually getting him. That’s what I believe happened.

He comes in next spring to be the 4th outfielder in a rotation with Buxton, Jenkins, and Keaschall.

When 2 of your 3 best OF’s are in AAA with an average OPS of .918 and instead you keep the guys you have already who have an average OPS of .713. That’s terrible. Not to mention the 2 guys at AAA are solid OF’s not only in the corners but can be solid CF’s as well. Also, they’re both younger and 2 of your top prospects. One of which is out of options come next year. Clemens is a great bounce around guy. You need that. Larnach and Roden, are we really thinking these guys are ever gonna be better than Jenkins and ERod? That’s the measuring stick. If they flop and need to go back to AAA then at least you were aggressive and went all in. Larnach and Roden… that’s not going all in. I expect Buxton on the IL and Jenkins up on Friday. If that’s not the case then I’m going to my back up team and focusing on the playoffs as the Twins are not serious.

As the great Ron Swanson once said, “ don’t half ass 2 things when you can whole ass one.”

The tweet was from the beginning of the season along with the others pointing out all the sub par lefties. Agree on the percentage. Same thing at the fire sale last year where everyone was claiming they traded 40% of the roster where it wasn’t even that. Was like 36% but that’s not as bombastic as 40% or whatever it was. Also, Jenkins has been developed right. His splits aren’t that bad. Like at all! Why, because he’s a good hitter! Lefty/lefty is almost never gonna be as good but good hitters can still hit lefties. I think people lump a good lefty(Jenkins) in with bad lefties( everyone else). This season in AAA his line against LHP….303/377/421 in 85 PA’s. So yeah, compared to the other guys he’s elite. And he’s 21, plays a solid CF and is superb in the corners. Like you, I don’t understand why he gets compared to 25,26,27 year olds who can’t play defense. All the arguments against calling him up fall flat on their face. The guy is ready no matter which side he bats from.

I would tend to agree. The major sticking point is the international side of things. The “FPP” seemed more geared towards taking middling pitching prospects on other teams and converting them into higher end guys( Pablo, Ryan, Duran, Jax, etc) and taking back end of the draft guys and simply turning them into useable/solid pitchers (Ober, Varland, Matthew’s, Festa). They never took a pitcher in the 1st round or brought an international pitcher they signed all the way through the system. These are things Seattle and Cleveland do. Same with TB. He also brought the new age system to a team that was drafting relievers and trying to turn them into high velocity SP’s. Pitch to contact. Without that the Twins would have looked more like the Rockies than what their pitching system is now. He helped the system for sure. But when a Trevor Larnach could’ve maybe been a Shane Mclanahan. A Royce Lewis could’ve been a Hunter Greene or McKenzie Gore or a Keoni Cavaco could’ve been a George Kirby that’s where they’ve missed on a top of the rotation guy. That with international guys. Not in these other areas most talk about when comparing Falvey’s pitching pipeline.

Exactly. When Falvey’s regime not only turned guys like Ober, Varland, Festa and Matthew’s into MLB caliber pitchers as no name late rounds choices that’s pretty good. Also, turning guys like Lopez and Ryan into legit top of the rotation guys is something not all teams do well. Cleveland and Seattle have used early round picks to build these SP staffs. Rasmussen and Mclanahan were both 1st round picks. Twins haven’t drafted a 1st rd pitcher in over a decade. It’s just not apples to apples grading Falvey or the Twins against Cleveland, Tampa and Seattle. In reality compared to the other 29 teams they’re probably average. They just haven’t hit on guys like Soto, Rays etc when they have taken pitchers in the first couple rounds. Honestly, I know Lackey was a no brainer but I almost wanted them to take a swing with Flora just to boost the SP depth.

This!!! Out of all the comments I’m seeing blaming Falvey for not developing pitching( which is a sad dead horse argument to beat), this is the one that I always fall back on. Identifying and developing international pitching prospects on the pitching side has killed this team the last 10 years. Great point!

If you’re talking about home grown pitching who needs to come up? Who was this generational pitching prospect they just traded?

Exactly. Also the fact that they have waaaayyy to many OF’s and LH OF’s at that. This whole PPI speculation is simply Twinsdaily staff looking for clicks as I’ve seen it written about a thousand times. The reasons go as such. 1. Too many OF’s, who gets bumped? 2. Jenkins needs AB’s if he’s brought up. 3. Erod needs AB’s as he’s out of options. 4. If the 27 season is delayed Jenkins doesn’t have to sit out if not on the 40. 5. Maybe PPI here. That’s the order. PPI isn’t even close to the top reason. Come on Twinsdaily. Stop speculating this garbage. Do better.