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Everything posted by Dennesey55347

  1. I don't think anyone in baseball history has been paid anything close with career offensive numbers that look like Buxie's. A 28-year old who has 1 season over 75 hits,, zero 20-HR seasons, never scored or driven in 60, stole only 71 bases to date as one of the fastest players in the game, has a career OBP under .300, has more career K's than stolen bases, RBI's, and runs combined, and has played in 100 games only once, etc, etc. If I were shown these numbers from a nameless player half way through his career and told he declined a very generous 70-80 mil and wanted 100, I'd have immediately helped him pack for the demotion. I hope Bux's second act is closer to Carlos Correa's first. Drafted 1 spot ahead of Byron, this man is already a legend in Houston and top 3 all-time in 3 postseason stats. Billie Bean be like "His OBP is .299 and he wants HOW MUCH?
  2. Buxton is going into his age 28 (8th) season and has exactly 1+ exceptionally productive combined campaigns under his belt (2017 and 2020). He has only 6 AB's in post season play .125 with 4 K's). His career slash: .248/.299/.761. He has never seriously contended for MVP in any season because his offensive stats haven't been at all star level for most of his career, he doesn't draw walks, steal bases, or get on base enough to make a difference. The guy drafted 1 spot ahead of him also joined the league in 2015 and is grossly underpaid at $11.7 mil. Carlos Correa has also missed games pretty much every year like Buxton (albeit far fewer) but is a big-game legend already. Top 10 all-time (of 22,000+ players) in RBI's, HR's and WPA in the post-season. Yes, different positions and waaaay different teams but only one of the two has truly made a name for himself. I find it fascinating that Buxton is the only player in baseball garnering as much praise as he gets with such paltry career offensive production. If I were him, I'd pledge to give the team at least 2 FULL seasons of all-star caliber play before making contract demands. Is there any other example of a guy playing in only half of his teams games over his career hitting under .250 with an OBP 20+ points below league average, zero 20+ HR seasons, zero 70+ runs/RBI campaigns, more K's than RBI's, runs, and stolen bases combined, one 100+ games played/season, and half the WAR of a guy entering the league at the same time and drafted in practically the same spot who rejected a contract worth $80 mil +incentives? Defense is definitely worth consideration but you have to make roll call every day to use this as your bargaining tool. Buxton's speed trumps his smoothness and ball tracking- particularly deep balls where he has a habit of misreading and turning up the jets to recover only to crash test dummy with the wall. He's still got the wheels to make zero probability snags but playing at least 85% of your teams games for ONE season is just as impressive as the catches. What the Twins offered makes sense. You already overpaid Donaldson, who absolutely killed it as the FOURTH best player on Atlanta in 2019. As for Buxton, well, as famously quoted "the most important ability is availability". Show up. Get paid. Take the deal.
  3. Buxton has 221 AB's this year. 18 Hr's (12 solos and six 2-run shots) for a total of 24 RBI's from HR's. His other 6 RBI's came in the remaining 203 "non-HR" AB's. You read that right. That level of production outside of the long ball has to be the lowest in MLB. T-R-A-D-E.
  4. Sano is a relatively easy out for any pitcher with good control and delicious off-speed stuff. His HR's are memorable for distance rather than impact on game outcome. He doesn't drive in many non-HR runs. His WAR is among the lowest compared to players with a similar skill set. The Twins will let him play out 2022 and move him even though he should be traded in this off-season.
  5. I'd probably take either of the top 2 bats from almost any playoff team over anyone on the Twins current roster. The Sox have prepared their players for greatness and it shows. They have the perfect balance of situational hitters, mashers, hit-paraders, run-producers, and DISCIPLINED CONSISTENCY. Great management and coaching that clearly shows. Same with a good handful of other playoff teams. It is odd that so many signings the Twins completed over the years had produced average stats or far worse only to put up better/career stats elsewhere. Team leadership, regardless of what we think should ultimately be graded on the effort their employees put in every single day. Tortuga and Arraez are the only guys on the team that play every game like they're close to demotion. I won't bring up the piranhas, but that kind of work ethic gets an organizational "thumbs up" from me no regardless. Outside of Arraez and Tortuga, everyone else is at slightly different levels of "going through the motions".
  6. Honestly, all the reasons mentioned in this article play a role in my lack of live Twins coverage this year. I would also add that I wasn't optimistic of the Twins 2021 season before it began and even predicted with confidence in a reply to a Twins Youtube vid (about 20 games into the season) that Chicago would win the division and beat the Twins by at least 8 games. Pretty much everything I felt was going to hold this team back happened: Buck on IL again, over-reliance on the HR, lack of individual development, no #1 pitcher, etc. Too many weaknesses to compete in this league and zero prospect callups that I felt could singlehandedly vie for team MVP. Not even a member of the coaching staff or front office stands out. Twins have been my #1 team for over 35 years but the state of this current org. gives me nothing to latch on to. I still review game-by-game stats religiously and follow almost every game via ESPN statcast, but that's about it.
  7. The 435 doubles stated in the article that Cruz hit as a Twin is more than he has in his whole career. Hey, when Nellie sets his mind to it, it gets done! He was the last lovable piece for me and the old man was never challenged as the top dog here. Finally time to root for a Twin on the way to brighter lights.
  8. All the returns you mentioned for the guys who are clearly producing at a higher level with other teams (undeniably) haven't even made a dent in the MLB. Brock's comment is entirely true until Duran, Alcala, or whoever else actually moves the needle in the senior league.
  9. The small ball heavy concept the Twins had great periods of success with is looong gone. Rocco's gameplan seems to center around each-man-for-himself, swing for the fences often. We don't really ever see hits strung together or batting around in an inning any more. Even with the HR-heavy approach, almost 64% of our dingers are solo (almost worthless), 25% 2-run (helps), 10% 3-run (game-changer), and just 1.4% GS's (game breaker). They've hit far too many of the least effective homers since 2019 and over this long of a sample clearly fail pretty drastically in delivering the monster blow. Not ensuring your guys are hammering basic hitting techniques though EVERY offseason leads to exactly what we're watching nightly. Rocco and crew (and those before him) also show no signs of excelling at player development (offensively speaking). Most players going back to Jason Bartlett seem to have improved after leaving this org. The latest stock includes Schoop, Escobar, and Grossman. This season was an easy one to predict once we got a healthy sample size of Rocco. Back in late April, I said the Sox would win the division and the Twins would be at least 8 games back. The difference between the two teams is Chicago's lineup consists of talent, technique, and confidence (and a HOF manager), which converts to production in their org. A well-oiled machine. Go ahead and give Rocco a few more years if you need to. I already got the early read on the guy.
  10. This may sound cruel and could even be inaccurate, but Sano doesn't seem to have the level of baseball intelligence needed to permanently correct his flaws. I suggested back in an early 2019 Facebook post that we should trade him and Buxton for maximum return and still feel the same way about unloading at least Sano ASAP.
  11. Taking WAR out of the equation for a moment, I would take almost all Sox position players over the Twins as they are more reliable from a production/availability standpoint and more proven overall. And Sox players will almost certainly do the little things significantly better like draw walks, steal bases, and extend plate appearances. Pitching comparisons after the season (for me) will be the more interesting follow.
  12. You legitimized their starter status off of one season...and all 3 have played 5+. All 3 boast non-existent stats in post-season play, all 3 have career average/below average OBP, None feature a stellar career ave. Only Polanco has a chance to be a consistent offensive contributor for a FULL season, as clearly proven in the first 1/3 of each's career. You forgot to name me one contender that would switch out one of theirs for one of these guys. Rosario, our best run-producer, glided right through waivers...
  13. I've wrestled with this topic for years because unlike many other inductees, Joe's candidacy worthiness is actually a question rather than a given. Accolades mentioned in this article obviously can't be argued. Many personal accomplishments. Percentages we've rarely seen from his position. Then I look at his production stats: season averages in pretty much every category qualify as mundane (or worse). Even his career production numbers are meh. I remember some of his personal highlights but not a terribly high number of game-clinching, dominant performances. Also, career post-season numbers: .275/.341/.300, with 1 run and 1 RBI in 44 plate appearances. Yikes.
  14. Wonderful interview. I was hot on the Rooker bandwagon right after we drafted him. Seems intelligent, and of great character. I'm ready for the next wave and hope Mr. Rooker dons a Twins uni and becomes a clubhouse leader for MANY years.
  15. Cruz earned another contract for every possible reason available. Let him make the choice. He is also the only player on this team opposing pitchers respect and fear for the most part. Every player we brought up in the wave a few years ago has flaws that crop up every year, and none of them can put it together offensively for long stretches. The 40-year old is our best employee. Keep.
  16. Sign Cruz to 2 more years. Trade every other bat. Replace them with as many top prospects as we can and coach them up. Pick up an effective hitting coach. Only bring intelligent Men into this org. who are hard-working, goal-oriented, team-players whose only mission is to get on base. Give starters more leverage to manage their own game situations. Smarter, more mature players don't scare easy when faced with adversity, or even a few men on base.
  17. I made an observation after the 10th game of LAST season that the (then) currently constructed Twins were a boom-or-bust team. Their 2019 stats didn't seem to back up my opinion, but I noticed that specifically in high-leverage situations (2 or more on, minus homers), the Twins ability to grind out at bats, string together a few consecutive clutch hits, and drop big innings were relatively rare. We have a team completely full of streaky, pressure-weak players. This was far more evident this year as I went through every inning of all 60 reg. season games and lost count of how many innings we left multiple men on base via terrible at-bats. The Astros lineup has 5+ difficult outs in their lineup. Guys everyone knows by name because of their clutch play, as do the Yankees, White Sox, and even the Rays in the American League. We have Cruz. That's it. And he's even a bit streaky. Make no mistake about it- pitching is the only reason we weren't fighting for the 8 seed this year.
  18. I've been following only one scenario religiously since the first week of last season: HITS with 2+ OB (minus HR's). Stringing base hits together, especially with multiple base runners is virtually impossible with this lineup. The Twins have performed like thee bottom-tier team in this aspect game after game. The Chicago game was just the absolute extreme of the norm. The previous Cleveland series produced 18 Twins runs- The first 17 by HR and a finishing sac fly. Zero RBI singles, dubs, trips, HBP's, etc. Since I already knew this was likely going to be an even bigger issue in 2020, I have only followed box scores up to this point while spending more time admiring the young projected stars of other clubs shine bright. Impossible to believe that 6 top-100 prospects that came up around the same time will never be a Tatis, Robert, Acuna, Soto, Kyle Lewis, Bo Bichette, Bellinger, or take your pick from the Astro's lineup. This post-season is going to be brutal. Again.
  19. I noticed a trend very early last year and have zoned in on it ever since: inability to cluster hits together. When is the last time we've had 6 hits in an inning? Minus the occasional HR in the following scenario, with 2+ men on base this team can't hit...at all. It's like the next batter up turns into one of the worst hitters in the league. The Twins were in a rare situation having 6 highly-touted prospects enter the league at roughly the same time yet not one of them has lived up to their potential. My love of the team is more a "like" at this point. I'd pull a Rosas and trade the entire roster (stay Cruz) for gritty, hard working, always improving bunch.
  20. Agreed with #4 since the start of last season. Pretty easy to see after this many seasons that his talent vs shortcomings are a wash. Not many teams would give a perennial K king repeated starter opportunities. If he were a clutch hitter, I'd keep him. Get your return now before the stock gets fully exposed is my take.
  21. Berrios seems to be one of the better clubhouse guys and teammates, but if one were to forego a numbers-crunching deep-dive and compare him to every ace/2nd on any playoff team (in either league), I'd be mystified about who I'd put him above.
  22. For another team who hasn't seen him play every day like Twins fans have, he'd be a nice flyer. 22-25 HR pace, currently at .256, should drive in 70. He'd be a decent major-league-ready addition to any non-playoff team.
  23. The attention is often turned towards pitching in losses like today. I mostly turn mine to offense unless our starter coughs up 8ish runs. Since late April, I've noticed, and openly commented on something specific I was monitoring this season: hits with 2 or more men on. Minus the Bomba, the percentage of men getting left on base in these critical situations is increasing as the season wears. I couldn't honestly name a single player I could count on to put the ball in the gap to score 2 (Escobar). Way too many bad at-bats in crucial times and empty innings. A lineup of streaky hitters are fun when they're on and slightly annoying otherwise. I sure wish we had a Springer, Altuve, LeMahieu, Betts, JD Martinez, Lindor, Carlos Santana, etc. Clutch hitters you definitely want to pitch around. Our version of this guy is whoever's hot that week, and pitchers generally still go after them. I'd (literally) throw Schoop ...and a prospect into a package for a Rogers equal.
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