The Best Case Scenario for Byron Buxton

[Nick Nelson]

It's easy to feel gloomy and doomy about Byron Buxton's future, given all we've seen him go through this year. But, as we've learned in the past, even the most mysterious and long-lingering injuries are not necessarily permanent.

Image courtesy of Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

It is very possible that Byron Buxton's knee is chronically and/or structurally compromised, in which case this year will only serve as a harbinger of things to come. Maybe he never bounces back from this and his body ends up forcing him to retire at any early age. Could happen.

But frankly, I've been hearing way too many Twins fans treat that as a casual assumption, forgetting the fact that Buxton has rebounded from injury time and time again in the past, and isn't yet 30. I find it annoying.

There's just not a lot of value in hand-wringing over the scenario where Buxton's days as a productive player are over -- even if you see it as probable. 

We don't need to sugarcoat the fact that things looked bleak this year: his surgically repaired knee never seemed right, forced him into (ineffectual) designated hitter duty in the first half, and shut him down after early August. When Buxton limped out up to the plate for a fruitless pinch-hitting appearance late in Wednesday's elimination game, it was simultaneously a cool and sad moment.

A sign of the end for this broken-down superstar? Not necessarily.

Leading up the postseason, as Buxton pushed himself to become viable for the ALWC roster, he spoke with La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune. One thing that struck me about Buck's quotes in the article was how he seemingly attributed much of his difficulty in 2023 to the arthroscopic knee surgery he'd undergone the previous offseason.

"I was still coming off surgery," Buxton said. "I had never played a year following knee surgery. I was still trying to figure this out, all year."

Neal's article also included this tidbit:

Quote

 

One encouraging sign for the future is that Twins trainer Nick Paparesta noted recently the surgically repaired part of Buxton's knee continues to improve. And there's no indication the injury could be a problem next year or beyond.

"Not that I know of," Buxton said. "I just didn't know how I was going to be coming off of surgery."

 

Probably (okay definitely) an optimistic spin from La Velle there, but the underlying point is a valid one: sometimes it takes a while for the body to bounce back from surgery, even a supposedly "minor" one.

Just ask Joe Mauer.

After injuring his knee late in the 2010 season, Mauer underwent arthroscopic surgery during the offseason. The following season was a disaster, for both the team and Mauer specifically. He posted career-worst numbers and missed two months while taking fire from fans who were befuddled by the team's "bilateral leg weakness" diagnosis.

He was 28 (one year younger than Buxton is now) and the vagueness of his health situation left many wondering what Mauer's future would look like.

Later on, as things came into focus, it became clear that the catcher simply struggled physically to rebound from knee surgery and probably pushed himself back too soon.

And here's the upshot: in 2012, once Mauer had another offseason to recover and distance himself from the knee surgery, he was pretty much back to his regular self. He played 147 games, made the All-Star team, and led the league in OBP. The surgery worked, it just took a little longer than some would've liked.

Mauer was in the same form in 2013 up until another unrelated injury came along and DID permanently alter the course of his career. That sort of thing will be an ongoing concern for Buxton even if he can get past the knee issues. 

But the point is that his injury-wrecked 2023 campaign does not indicate that Buxton's knee is shot. The body works in unpredictable ways and there's no telling what another offseason building back (without pushing recklessly toward a return to the field) could do for the formerly elite slugger, still owed $75 million and heavily incentivized to add onto that number by returning to MVP form

 

I'm hanging onto that hope as we head into this offseason, while acknowledging that the Twins front office absolutely needs to prepare themselves with strong contingencies in center field, as they did this year.

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[Jocko87]

I appreciate the optimism.  So many want to punt long before its time.  I'm actually encouraged by the news, it confirms my hunch that the medical staff is much more focused on the long term than short so much so that they will work more natural healing methods than just cut and splice. 

I was very skeptical with Polanco coming out of spring training that they didn't seem to "do" anything with the knee.  The more I thought about it, the more comfortable I was as they were more concerned with letting the knee heal rather than the artificial opening day deadline.  Obviously, they were doing therapy and stimulus an other fancy medical stuff but no surgery.  No procedures us dumb fans would recognize. 

I'm also obviously not a medical excerpt (pun intended), and I'm not talking about healing crystals or something, I'm just getting the strong impression that the training staff is only mildly affected by artificial baseball deadlines.  Sure, they got Buck up for the playoffs but I bet they knew weeks ago this procedure was needed and they weren't going to do further damage and risk next year. 

[JD-TWINS]

So, would love to see Buxton come back!

The real issue, to me is that if he comes back fairly strong after this new procedure, his history in 7 of his first 8 years is that he averaged 76 games per season. He finds all kinds of ways & all kinds of things to get injured. I still think he can only play 40 games in CF & DH 80 games & pinch hit in 10 games while resting 20% of season over the remaining 30 games. With this PLAN we may start to get true value for his contract but more importantly value in his performance!

[High heat]

I think you found out this yr you can’t just DH him and keep him healthy or productive on the field.  He has to play CF  if that’s for 5 game or for 50 game or 150 games.  
 

You also have to have a backup for when he misses significant time.  I hope next year that plan is Castro and Austin Martin.

[tony&rodney]

I admit that I usually fall into the optimism camp and see hope for Byron next season. I do believe there is more work to do than just his health. Although certainly his weak foundation may have been the primary cause of an obvious change in his swing, Buxton has a ton of practice needed before he returns to being an effective offensive player. Again, maybe he can just readjust his mechanics with full health but he needs to get back a baseball swing.

The Twins almost need to build their roster without Buxton, although he is obviously going to be one of the 13 position players. I say this because it will be near April before anyone can be sure whether Buck is back for real. Hope springs eternal.

[ashbury]

On the morning of May 5 Buxton sported an OPS of .920.  Up to that point the experiment to let him DH-only was working.

From that date to the end of the season his OPS was .629.  His batting average on balls in play was in the low .200s, which could be bad luck except we were watching him and the quality of the balls in play wasn't at his normal level.  That OPS isn't sustainable for a major league hitter unless he is playing elite defense (and even then it's marginal) - and he still wasn't playing defense at all.

It's impossible to pinpoint from the batting record when exactly something happened physically, but we can be pretty sure that something did.  Post-surgery he had been on what was apparently an upward trajectory, with hope that DH would transition to CF, but instead something went downward.

People say he proved he shouldn't play DH, that the mental stress of sitting was too much, but all the season demonstrated to me was that trying to keep him healthy by DHing him was a miserable failure this time.

Next year he needs to be either on the active roster and playing CF most of the time, or else on the IL.

It's foolish to bank on the Best Case given his health history, but it's also foolish to say it can't happen, and if it does the rewards could be considerable.

[Aerodeliria]

I'm not sure about the odds of the best-case-scenario, but I'd be making kind overtures to Taylor,

[Johnny Ringo]

Hope for the best, plan for the worst. 

[alexlegge]

Wow, thank you for offering such a refreshingly neutral and realistic take, Nick!! It's *deceptively* neutral, which can probably only be pulled off in this context of a fan base that has been conditioned to expect the worst from their injured stars.

 

From a medical standpoint, I'll also offer another key distinction between Buxton's injury history and the injury histories of Mauer/Morneau:

- Mauer and Morneau both experienced permanent declines in their performance due to brain injuries. Neural tissue can't be repaired with the same finesse as, say, a sacroiliac joint.

- Buxton, in contrast, has experienced many early-career injuries. He does have a history of migraines and even experienced a concussion in the past, but I don't think there's evidence that we know of to suggest there's any relationship between those problems and his 2022-23 setbacks.

[Rik19753]

1 hour ago, Johnny Ringo said:

Hope for the best, plan for the worst. 

Exactly. At this point it's in the best interest for everybody to have a "believe it when I see it" attitude when it comes to Buxton being healthy.

Honestly, if the Twins feel confident about their chances of winning the Central next year ( I certainly do right now), he should be starting his season late regardless of his health. With him it's a matter of when, not if, he's going to get injured, and I would prefer to have him healthy and thriving in October. Obviously, even starting his season late doesn't guarantee he'll be healthy for a playoff run, but I think that maximizes the chances of him being available in the playoffs, which gives the Twins their best shot at winning the WS next year.

[Riverbrian]

9 hours ago, ashbury said:

Next year he needs to be either on the active roster and playing CF most of the time, or else on the IL.

I was sleeping in med school but your quoted sentence is where I lay my head these days. 

He can't block up that DH spot anymore.

The damage of a struggling every day DH is never contained to just that position... it will bleed into other spots in the lineup especially if you are building proper depth. 

 

[Karbo]

Its getting to the point where I can't help but wonder if his knee issue is foxed and healed, what's going to go wrong next for him?

[Whitey333]

I wish nothing but the best for Buxton.  But here we go again.  Off season after off season it's the same refrain.  Hoping for Byron to be healthy and productive.  8 years here and he's only been able to play one full season.  That's 7 years as a part time player and full time injury list person.  When will reality set in for people that he is essentially done?  By keeping him as is hampers the rest of the lineup.  The Twins have been more than fair with Buxton for 8 years.  He's earned full time pay for being a part time player.  He has produced very little during that time.  Yet people mention him in the same.breath as Joe Mauer and Kirby Puckett.  He's done very little on the field in 8 years to have earned that distinction.  He is not and never will be a superstar.  Superstars play everyday and produce.  I wish no ill will for Byron but it's time he and the Twins to consider removing him from the roster, especially if we have another year of injuries and unfulfilled promises.  It's right for the team and for Byron Buxton.  I'm sure they could find a great non playing role for him as a coach or a team ambassador.  It's time to move on.

[roger]

Best case scenario you ask.  For me it would be playing 140 games, 120 in the field, winning the triple crown (does that still exist?), MVP and platinum glove.  

Now back to reality.  I also read LENIII's article, twice.  Appreciated several points I was not aware of and came away hopeful that Buxton can get on the field in 2024.

Have been thinking alot about which of the several free agents the Twins bring back.  Do they work to resign Taylor?  I appreciate how important he was to the team this year and hope he is back.  But what to do if Buxton is healthy?  Does it make sense to have Taylor in center and Buxton in left say 80 games a year?  I never played much baseball and don't have a clue if Buxton is less likely to get injured playing left field than center?  Is that likely?

As this year's season draws to a close, is gonna be fun for us Twins fans to see what the front office does regarding bringing back this year's players.

[saviking]

But frankly, I've been hearing way too many Twins fans treat that as a casual assumption, forgetting the fact that Buxton has rebounded from injury time and time again in the past, and isn't yet 30. I find it annoying.

--------------------

And there lies the problem. time and time again .. So if he bounces back time and time again over the next 6 years what would that say ..

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

Its getting to the point where I can't help but wonder if his knee issue is foxed and healed, what's going to go wrong next for him?

Exactly. Again, averaged 76 games per year in 7 of 8 previous seasons to the 85 games in ‘23. No reason to think the rest of his physique will be bullet proof if his knee gets better.

I still think that if healed, he still can only play CF 25% of the time & DH 50% of the time. If we are more aggressive with his playing approach his chances of going on IL are about 100% - even with a load mgmt. plan his injury chances are about 90%………sad but pretty realistic.

[Lartwinfan]

No impact water jogging. Seriously. My knee was bad for 2 years after surgery started water jogging every day and it worked. Knee got completely better It also cured my hip soreness He could have went anywhere, but wanted to be true to the team that had faith in him.  He’s a man of great character and I will root for him all the way!! I’d love to be able to shove it in the face of his of those ignorant chumps that think he’s just milking the Twins

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Way too early to write off Buxton.  Hopefully they can keep him healthy, in the lineup, and in the field,

The Twins had the right approach this year: sign a quality #4 OF and prepare for the worst.  Keeping Taylor in the fold makes sense considering the unknown.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

52 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Exactly. Again, averaged 76 games per year in 7 of 8 previous seasons to the 85 games in ‘23. No reason to think the rest of his physique will be bullet proof if his knee gets better.

I still think that if healed, he still can only play CF 25% of the time & DH 50% of the time. If we are more aggressive with his playing approach his chances of going on IL are about 100% - even with a load mgmt. plan his injury chances are about 90%………sad but pretty realistic.

Exactly 

As a catcher, Joe Mauer played 133 games per year. After, 134, but made a position change.

as a CFer, Buck has played 84 games per year (average leaving out rookie and ‘20).

Why would we expect Buxton to play more games after surgery than before? he’s had a couple tremendous hitting seasons, but overall averaged 105 wRC+. It might be fair to expect better than 105 wRC+ due to recency bias, but probably not realistic to expect him to be anywhere close to the 140 of his best season.

sure 2023 is likely a low point in his career, but it’s not a deep hole in his chart relative to his career. It’s average, so expecting significantly more isn’t realistic at all

[David Maro]

There are players in every sport where their bodies just won't hold up.He seems to be one of them.It is encouraging that he has had the surgery now.You see some players waiting until training camp to do so.The real problem here is the FO signed him to a extension.Is he a 100 million dollar player,I don't think he is.When you sign a player to big contracts they need to play.The Twins are a small market team,so money is important.If he comes to spring training ready to play great.But if he is still not ready to go that will be a problem.

[jjswol]

As the saying goes, you can put lipstick on a pig but at the end of the day you still have a pig. 

[AceWrigley]

1 hour ago, saviking said:

.. So if he bounces back time and time again over the next 6 years what would that say ..

that he is Bouncing Byron Buxton 😀

[Riverbrian]

According to reports... the surgery being done is to "Excise Plica". 

I've asked someone who understands what Plica is and this is what he told me. 

1. Plica is leftover knee tissue from when you were a developing embryo that didn't reabsorb back into the body.

2. Not everyone has Plica. 

3. For those who have it. It can be a source of pain and swelling after knee injuries or overuse.    

4. Plica doesn't show up on a MRI

5. Plica is pretty much useless to those who have it. You don't need tonsils... you don't need plica.  

6. It is typically something they look at after they look at everything else. 

7. Looking at point #3 again... It can be a source of pain and swelling. 

Here's to hoping that the excising of Plica makes it better. 

 

[Doctor Gast]

14 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I appreciate the optimism.  So many want to punt long before its time.  I'm actually encouraged by the news, it confirms my hunch that the medical staff is much more focused on the long term than short so much so that they will work more natural healing methods than just cut and splice. 

I was very skeptical with Polanco coming out of spring training that they didn't seem to "do" anything with the knee.  The more I thought about it, the more comfortable I was as they were more concerned with letting the knee heal rather than the artificial opening day deadline.  Obviously, they were doing therapy and stimulus an other fancy medical stuff but no surgery.  No procedures us dumb fans would recognize. 

I'm also obviously not a medical excerpt (pun intended), and I'm not talking about healing crystals or something, I'm just getting the strong impression that the training staff is only mildly affected by artificial baseball deadlines.  Sure, they got Buck up for the playoffs but I bet they knew weeks ago this procedure was needed and they weren't going to do further damage and risk next year. 

I like your football ism & agree with you, Jocko. Great article Nick! Nick Paperesta was a great addition as far as his treatment & philosophy & his ability to change this team's philosophy of running their players to the ground, looking only to the present & forget the future. His intervention could have saved the careers of Buxton, Polanco, Lewis, and Kiriloff. It'd have been great to have  Buxton pushed more to play more in the post but it's better for him to come back closer to 100% than risk possible setbacks by pushing him.

[Woof Bronzer]

"forgetting the fact that Buxton has rebounded from injury time and time again in the past, and isn't yet 30"

This is such an odd thing to say about a guy who over his career has missed as many games as he's played and is coming off a season when he very clearly could not rebound from injury.  

[jmlease1]

I'm very much hoping that this addresses the knee issue and that Buxton will be able to come into training camp fully healthy and ready to go. Regardless, I think the team will be careful to make sure he gets regular rest and DHs to try to make sure he gets through the season healthy and ready to go when the playoffs start, assuming the team is back in contention again (as they should be considering their talent level and their competition in the division).

I think what bothers me the most about some of the Buxton commentary is how many people seem to treat his injury issues as if it's a personal and moral failing. As if by being a highly paid player they should now be immune to injury and if they get hurt than it's "eff that jerk". (The Mauer comparison is probably apt in that we saw similar scorn heaped upon Joe for his injuries, as if he wanted to get hurt or something.) If there's one thing I'm pretty certain of, it's that Byron Buxton ain't dogging it. If anything his desire to play and try to help the team probably leads to him not going on the IL soon enough. (Much like Sonny Gray will always say he can go another inning, Buxton would probably always say "yeah, I can play" if asked. "I'll be ready to go tomorrow, I'm sure of it!" lol) That's commendable, but not always helpful.

The Twins have to prepare for next season to have backup options in place if Buxton's knee doesn't respond like we hope. Maybe that's bringing back Michael A. Taylor, maybe that's trusting in Austin Martin, or maybe it's finding a way to keep Nick Gordon or an Andrew Stevenson type around in the organization. But there's no question in my mind that the Twins are a better team with Byron Buxton playing, and I hope he can patrol CF next season, slam some HRs, and terrify the occasional OF into screwing up a relay because he flew out of the batter's box at Warp Factor 9.

[SoDakTwinsFan]

"Buxton has rebounded from injury time and time again."

Ahhhhhhhhh...are you serious?  

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

I wish nothing but the best for Buxton.  But here we go again.  Off season after off season it's the same refrain.  Hoping for Byron to be healthy and productive.  8 years here and he's only been able to play one full season.  That's 7 years as a part time player and full time injury list person.  When will reality set in for people that he is essentially done?  By keeping him as is hampers the rest of the lineup.  The Twins have been more than fair with Buxton for 8 years.  He's earned full time pay for being a part time player.  He has produced very little during that time.  Yet people mention him in the same.breath as Joe Mauer and Kirby Puckett.  He's done very little on the field in 8 years to have earned that distinction.  He is not and never will be a superstar.  Superstars play everyday and produce.  I wish no ill will for Byron but it's time he and the Twins to consider removing him from the roster, especially if we have another year of injuries and unfulfilled promises.  It's right for the team and for Byron Buxton.  I'm sure they could find a great non playing role for him as a coach or a team ambassador.  It's time to move on.

Buxton is done.  His past points to an injury plagued future.  They need to move off him.

[LastOnePicked]

I don't think there's a lot of hand-wringing, Nick. Fans seem pretty clear-eyed about the situation. Buxton has never been healthy as an MLB player for any real sustained stretch. There's no reason to believe he will be. When in doubt, the trend is your friend.

Mauer had an MVP season. Buxton has merely had two player-of-the-month stretches. I'm sorry if this annoys you, but fans are rightfully looking for replacements on the roster. If there's more there, great, but I certainly don't see any reason whatsoever to count on more from Buxton.

[sun]

No one can predict the future, not the doctors or Buxton. However I think that anything is possible including Buxton playing a complete injury free season & performing as a superstar. The past doesn't matter, only the future matters. It could go either way but many folks just seem to prefer being negative. If he makes it back then he's the type of player that can change the outcome of a season. Any player can do that, but Buxton has more tools than most players. So I prefer giving him the benefit of the doubt that he can turn it around & play better than ever. I hope that what's happening is that he's taking 1 step backward in order to take 2 steps forward. It doesn't cost fans anything to be optimistic. 

The Twins also badly need some hitters & I'd prefer some younger talent rather than bringing back Taylor. Nothing against Taylor but the Twins have younger talent waiting for an opportunity.  If we brought back Taylor then we'd need to get rid of someone else. The Twins have too many non-hitters to advance to the later playoff rounds. Just because a player can hit against lower tier teams doesn't mean that they can hit against the elite teams. It's time to upgrade the lineup with or without Buxton.