The Front Office Was Right to Bet on Their Roster

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins front office has been criticized up and down over the years for making decisions that could ultimately be looked back upon as wrong. When looking at the 2023 trade deadline, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine decided to bet on the group they had assembled. It was a gutsy move, but they were right.

 

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Coming into the year, Derek Falvey gave Rocco Baldelli a roster that included star power in the form of Carlos Correa. He provided depth in the form of Kyle Farmer, Willi Castro, Michael A. Taylor, and Donovan Solano. He got ownership’s blessing to spend to a threshold the franchise had never before seen. This team wasn’t complete, but it was a very strong foot forward.

With the Twins playing through multiple months of baseball and clinging onto a slim lead atop the AL Central division, Minnesota’s leaders opted against adding at the deadline. They had conversations with teams that wound up hanging onto their assets. Maybe they didn’t cast a wide enough net, and they certainly could’ve afforded to bring in relief help. Their inaction suggested one thing though, they believed in what they had.

Now, halfway through September, Minnesota leads the Cleveland Guardians by 8.5 games in the division and recently clinched the AL Central. Terry Francona’s club made a last-ditch effort in claiming former Angels Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore, and Reynaldo Lopez. Even though Minnesota put in claims for some of those talents, their play on the field proved they weren’t needed.

With only a handful of game’s left in the regular season, the front office’s belief that the guys were already in the organization is again starting to rear its head. Brock Stewart was put on ice before the All-Star Break, and his absence has been lengthier than imagined, but he is trending towards a return at the opportune time. Nick Gordon is available for a return to the roster, and Chris Paddack will be called upon as well. More than any other time during the season, they’ll have a roster crunch to sort out.

Maybe it’s unfair to suggest that Falvey knew each of his injured players would return, but behind the scenes Minnesota was certainly operating with that belief. While not all of them may be needed on the initial postseason roster, having them for the final games in September, and as an option when games matter most, is a good thing.

There’s also an unspoken belief in the youth that Minnesota’s inaction has provided. By bringing in additional bodies at the deadline, it’s uncertain how much playing time guys like Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis, and Matt Wallner may have ceded. Louie Varland probably isn’t transitioning to the bullpen, and though he's a veteran, Kenta Maeda working out of there may not be an option either.

It’s a great thing for a clubhouse to feel like the front office believes in them enough to supplement, but there is also a message sent in saying the talent we have already is enough for us to get the job done.

How things go in October remains to be seen, but it will be difficult to suggest that the Twins didn’t put their best foot forward. The veteran depth that has served them well all year can round out the edges of the roster, and the youth movement that has stepped up in a big way will be given their first true time to shine.

What Minnesota could have done at the deadline may have made a difference in a few key spots, but that the roster got it done on their own, and no prospects were pieced out, is a feather in the cap of leadership as well.

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[old nurse]

We shall see how they do in the playoffs. Then you will have an answer to if they were right on their bet,  Being the 8th best team in the AL while playing in a weak division is not n endorsement of their acumen 

[Karbo]

When the trade deadline came up all the other in teams in the division ended up being sellers. I'm sure that had a lot to do with the decision to stand pat. 

[rv78]

Sure, they clinched the division but it wasn't much of a bet when they play in the weakest division in baseball. Was that their goal? The roster got it done on their own? There are no expectations for the playoffs? How do you know that the Twins didn't put their best foot forward when making moves could have made the team better improving their chances in the playoffs. Rocco throws a game away on Saturday maybe because he has the same goal as you. They made the playoffs, Mission accomplished. The season is over. With that kind of attitude and thinking this team will be out in the first round. 

[pierre75275]

The roster isn't bad except:

The unfortunate Buxton debacle of the past 2 yrs. Don't know what else to call it

The bullpen could have been much better. If the bullpen hasn't been ignored the last off-season, the twins are pry an easy second playoff seed.

Joey Gallo

[Vanimal46]

Someone had to win this division, and the other teams waived the white flag by the trade deadline. There is too much talent on roster to be that inconsistent on offense in the first half. That stabilized, thanks in large part to younger players taking on more responsibility, and significantly reducing Gallo/Buxton’s playing time. 

[saviking]

The play and number of games they got out of Wallner, Lewis, and Julien salvaged their second half ..

[Whitey333]

This FO IMO is still one of the poorest we have had in years.  This roster is filled with holes and question marks. I'm hoping we at least win one playoff game and maybe even advance to the next round but what if the unthinkable happens and they lose 2 playoff games and extend the streak to 20?  Will that leave a great taste in fans mouths?  It would make the regular season pointless

  I think they blew their chance to improve their roster at the trade deadline.  At the trade deadline we had the easiest schedule left in all of baseball and in a joke of a division.  Yes they played well enough to win it.  But the other central teams total disinterest in being competitive was just as big if not more of a factor.  I sure hope we do well in the playoffs it's been sooooo long.  I'm sorry, but I can't help but being skeptical.

[Bigfork Twins Guy]

After all the complaining on TD regarding what we gave up last season at the deadline, as seeing the disastrous results, how can one be upset with the FO looking at our competition in the ALC giving up at the deadline and then being wise enough to not give up more assets to acquire questionable talent?

[Blyleven2011]

I didnt read the article  ...

Why didn't I read the article , because they haven't accomplished anything yet  , last year at the deadline the Twins were not contenders  and they traded away prospects , this year they were only contenders in a weak division with a good starting rotation  and they made no deadline trades ...

Nothing they do ever makes any sense ...

I will never cut this front office any slack , signing Gallo will go down as the worst player ever to wear a twins uniform  ...

They are not the smartest people in the room  , what takes them so long to promote the  prospects  when they rave about how talented our farm system  is  , we added prospects and our season finally turned around enough to win the weak division  ...

They deserve no praise , the players in the second half of the season deserve the praise ...

[weitz41]

I'm not ready to give the FO a that' A boy about the trade deadline.

The schedule, Kepler's turnaround, Polanco finally being healthy, and the young guys are IMO the reason for the second half surge. Most of that probably could not have been planned for. HOPED for sure.

Not really buying the everyone else sold, so stand pat suggestion either. How many trades have come through an hour or more after the deadline?

Hindsight...

On a positive note. The Twins record (this season) against their likely WC opponent gives me reason for optimism.

HOU 4-2 29 RS/25 RA

SEA 3-4 40 RS/38 RA

TEX 5-2 50 RS/33 RA

TOR 3-3 28 RS/26 RA

[wabene]

9 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

This FO IMO is still one of the poorest we have had in years.

What? Sorry but this is just flat out wrong. In the 6 years before they took over they had 5 years with at least 90 losses. One of those years was 100 losses. That is a .418 win percentage for those 6 years. They have a .527 win percentage in the 7 years since. Fact is they have been better. I want more, and we may get it this year, but let's keep it real.

 

[JD-TWINS]

35 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I didnt read the article  ...

Why didn't I read the article , because they haven't accomplished anything yet  , last year at the deadline the Twins were not contenders  and they traded away prospects , this year they were only contenders in a weak division with a good starting rotation  and they made no deadline trades ...

Nothing they do ever makes any sense ...

I will never cut this front office any slack , signing Gallo will go down as the worst player ever to wear a twins uniform  ...

They are not the smartest people in the room  , what takes them so long to promote the  prospects  when they rave about how talented our farm system  is  , we added prospects and our season finally turned around enough to win the weak division  ...

They deserve no praise , the players in the second half of the season deserve the praise ...

I only read your last sentence…….who hired the players that made a difference in the second half?

[LastOnePicked]

32 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

They deserve no praise

Well ... a little praise maybe. MAT, Solano, Farmer, Castro - all good pickups to give the roster depth. Specifically to this point, the bullpen held up well enough to jump above AL Central opponents. And it's possible that they saw Varland's stuff would play well as a reliever, and they read the reports well that Paddack and Stewart could come back and possibly deliver. 

All while losing no prospects at the deadline. That matters for a team that is going to need the farm system to keep delivering.

But you're right. The real test of their choices at the deadline is ahead. 

[JD-TWINS]

The article makes sense - did the FO think things through to get to this Division winning end or did they just get lucky? One has to assume they were conscious of the circumstances around them, since it’s their job.

They moved Jorge Lopez and remedied a bad situation.

Cleveland was the only team near us July 25-31. They traded Josh Bell - traded Civale - Bieber & McKenzie on 60 day IL until September 15. No reason to fear them if one has any confidence in the Twins roster. Guardians gave up!

Not getting relief pitching seemed crazy to me at the time but I had crossed Stewart out for balance of the year and I didn’t realize Funderburk could be as effective as he’s been.

With Ryan & Varland ……the core 4 there now……adding Funderburk & Stewart to our October Pen puts us in a very good spot!!

Balazovic - Alcala - Headrick - Henriquez - Moran are all 2024 options in the Pen. We are not in a baron situation. I think FO see this and managed the situation accordingly.

1/2 the guys I thought they should try to sign as FA in January-March had terrible years or got hurt……1/2 we’re pretty effective. To me, the 5 guys above that are on our 40 man have similar chances for success in 2024……they just need seasoning/experience.

4 good starters - 8 competent guys in the Pen………….really nothing to complain about from my view!

[Linus]

Like always it seems with this FO I see this as a mixed bag. If we are talking about strictly the trade deadline then I guess they were right. On the other hand it took 3 rookies coming up and firing right out of the gate to rescue the poor lineup of the first have. I would say that’s damn lucky but then again they drafted and developed those three rookies. With better management in the off season we wouldn’t even be asking the question. 

[Reptevia]

If they were so wise and “betting on the roster”, why put in claims on Giolito, Moore and Lopez?  Can’t have it both ways.  As far as that veteran presence in the lineup…we got half a reasonable season from Polanco and Kepler.  Worth their contracts?  Debatable. Are you employed by the front office Ted?  If not, they should definitely hire you in the PR department. 

[Jeff K]

2 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I didnt read the article  ...

Why didn't I read the article , because they haven't accomplished anything yet  , last year at the deadline the Twins were not contenders  and they traded away prospects , this year they were only contenders in a weak division with a good starting rotation  and they made no deadline trades ...

Nothing they do ever makes any sense ...

I will never cut this front office any slack , signing Gallo will go down as the worst player ever to wear a twins uniform  ...

They are not the smartest people in the room  , what takes them so long to promote the  prospects  when they rave about how talented our farm system  is  , we added prospects and our season finally turned around enough to win the weak division  ...

They deserve no praise , the players in the second half of the season deserve the praise ...

You didn't read the article, yet had time to rant because you are all knowing.  Cool.

[KirbyDome89]

Cleveland sold, and they're 21-28 since the deadline. In no world does that mean the Twins were right to pass on adding a bullpen arm(s) and/or a RH bat, and no, those additions wouldn't have been expensive. C'mon....

[Fatbat]

The Twins have one of the better records in MLB since the allstar break. Are we in a weak division? Yes. Have we held their own against playoff opponents? Also yes. Are we a young team? Absolutely yes.  The FO did its job and got enough talent to play well into October. Don’t be a hater. The Twins have a great chance at making a run deep into the playoffs just based on the pitching staff.  The runs scored will be the determining factor tho. 

[jorgenswest]

Results matter.

• Clinch the central with more than a week left in the season.
• Play .600 ball after the deadline.

Without knowing about any moves I would have without hesitation said that it would be a successful deadline based on that criteria. They are very near .600 and will get there if they win 4 of the remaining 6 games. They have plenty of time to set their rotation and line up heading into the playoffs.

[DocBauer]

I'll partially agree with Ted here. They saw/expected/hoped/believed they'd have Stewart back, Varland available, one of their rotation arms in the pen, and a possible emergence from one of the other younger such as Funderburk.  And it's nice it's turned out this well, potentially. Is that good planning/speculation? Or was it at least a bit lucky?

It's nice to see to see they might have been right, and no other prospects were dealt. Heck, even Luplow has actually hit LH pitching pretty well since he came on board, though nothing special.

The FO was right about Lopez, Taylor, Farmer. Solano, Cruz and who else?

They are a much better team the 2nd half. Not the fault of the FO that the offense was so inept in the first half, though maybe letting the kids play earlier might have helped sooner. Also not their fault Correa's had a  bad foot all year, or that Buxton's knee has been a mess, or others have spent time on the IL.

As much as I want to blame them for sticking with Gallo for way too long, I have to give them equal praise for sticking with Kepler and Pagan.

I've said since day 1 I really liked this team when the season began. I thought it was well put together and had a shot at 92-93 wins if the offense came through, which was based on injury recovery and a couple kids proving ready. Well, that happened, which is part of the reason why the 2nd half has been better.

I've  been vocal that as good of a job as they did pitting this team together, they should have gone the distance and added one solid arm...no I don't know who specifically...and a decent RH OF bat from SOMEWHERE to nudge the team towards the very best roster they could have been. Would those 2 additions have somehow turned the 1st half tide towards a better record? I don't know that they would have. Some very poor hitting and continued rehab from some injuries were still present.

What's most important is not the team you are to begin the season, it's who you end up becoming. And this is a pretty good team right now. 

I can still state I believed they missed an opportunity before the season started in regard to additions they didn't make, and a couple guys they let walk I didn't think they should. And I can still wonder about the inactivity at the deadline. But the truth is, they built a good team and once things got rolling, it's turned out well. Again, planning or luck? 

I wish we could have had BOTH halves of the season be as good as the second half, and have back some of those "oh so close" loses early on. But despite not being a perfect construction, and not being the 92-93 win team I thought they could be, they've been playing at that pace the second half.

So yeah, I guess I have to say they bet on the team they built and it's worked out pretty good.

 

 

[Coach Wheels]

This roster was good enough to win the Central and they've won series' over the last month. Beating anyone in the playoffs will be the great question. Live their starting pitching, still can see them getting shutout in the playoffs

[Aerodeliria]

As for the winning, they have been, and that demonstrates confidence in the players and the coaches. Nevertheless, adding an arm or a bat at the deadline demonstrates a willingness to players and fans that you are willing to try to improve even more--let's take this team even farther than we dreamed. That actually matters a lot IMHO. It might not work out, but it might also really help out (Baylor/Stewart).

[dxpavelka]

Now cue all of those who know better.....

[MGM4706]

Some solid moves but ignoring the Pen could cost them big-time in the playoffs. Like Vikes ignoring the O-Line. If they plan on using Jax under pressure it could be over early. Varland may bail them out.

[Connor Gould]

They saw some veterans that were performing well below their career norms and bet that they'd have some positive regression. They saw some young bats on the verge of a breakout. They saw a cold bullpen that had some internal fixes. Staying the course made sense then and they appear to be vindicated.

[Riverbrian]

I remember a time when I told people that I didn't need a cell phone. 

I was able to make calls on that thing that was plugged into the wall. I also made quite a few road trips and got home just fine without the cell phone.  

I was right but yet still wrong.    

[Dman]

This article seems too perspective based.  If the goal was to just win the division then sure I can agree.  If the article is saying there was no way to make the team any better at the deadline then I would have to disagree.  It depends on the goal you are looking at for success.

[Woof Bronzer]

This isn't the first TD article to suggest that the Twins would have been worse off if they'd acquired better players at the deadline.  The hottest of hot takes.

Bigger indictment is the theory that underpins this article:  that the only goal for the Twins is winning the putrid Central.  Says so, so much about this franchise.