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Connor Gould

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Everything posted by Connor Gould

  1. Connor Gould
    Roden has good K/BB and discipline stats and a good hard-hit rate, but his expected stats are low. Maybe he needs to get it in the air better. If so, the approach will play. Also of note, Brooks Lee pulled another homer, I wonder if he's taking the Dozier career trajectory. Both were called up to be slap hitting shortstops, before becoming dead pull guys at other infield spots. Dozier went from 67 OPS+ rookie to 18 homer and 98 OPS+ year 2 before being a plus power bat from then on. Lee has gone from 64 OPS+ rookie to 16 homers and 81 OPS+ year 2 and is now sitting on 16 homers and a 101 OPS+. So not as good of a version, but maybe a similar career arc.
  2. Connor Gould
    Last year, Culpepper in his draft +1 year had an .864 OPS in 247 A+ PAs before getting promoted and having an .827 OPS in 270 PAs. This year, Houston had a .867 OPS in 268 A+ PAs and is now at .956 in 139 AA PAs. The bat is on a very comparable pace, so we may have 2 shots at developing a SS soon, which is nice. The jump to AA is when I start to really believe in a prospect, glad to see him survive and thrive that jump. Given Houston's defensive reputation, his offensive breakout and now upper minors success may make him a top 100 prospect, maybe even top 50 if he closes the season strong.
  3. Connor Gould
    The more I look, the more I find myself liking Tait. I'd been hung up on hitting in the .220s, but his K rate is 24.7% so it's probably not too big of a red flag. And the fact that power usually takes time to show up for younger prospects makes it really impressive that he's hit 19 homers and 40 XBH in 90 games at 19 years old. Maybe my expectations to dominate a level he's 3.2 years younger than were dumb, a .213 ISO is very promising.
  4. Connor Gould
    I like the move. He's got 4 years track record of being a #3/4 guy before being bad for 7 starts this year, and I definitely think that track record is long enough and 2026 sample size is small enough to be able to trust him for the stretch as well as next year. Especially given that 3.0 HR/9 is due for positive regression. Reyes may be a bit steep of a price, but I've been burned enough by guys like Misael Urbina, Eduardo Beltre, and Wander Javier to fret about guys raking in rookie ball. They're called lottery tickets for a reason, and maybe we gave up a Powerball when he's worth a casino scratch off, but my mindset is that if we get burned, good for them.
  5. Connor Gould
    I like this, Minter's got a very consistent track record, and he slots in perfectly as the number 1 lefty. Seems like a fair return, both teams seem to have gotten a fair deal. Gomez, Morris, and Minter may not be a high end back of the pen, but it's hopefully enough to be pretty good. Nance is a fair 6th inning guy to grab but not an ideal leverage arm, and now he slots there. While Adams and Rogers are better lately than their bad starts and Anderson might have intrigue, we might be 1 steady 6th or 7th inning arm away from being real comfortable. I'm curious if we'll add more. I'd be down for another reliever, a righty platoon bat, and maybe a SS (probably too expensive, though). Fun stuff.
  6. Connor Gould
    Tait with a .221 ISO while 3 years younger than the average player in the league is a nice way to offset concerns of hitting .221. I wonder if he plays AA next year. I was glad to see Quick make that Fangraphs list, big dude who's getting a ton of K's, the leap to AA will determine if he's a legit top prospect or fringier, but I'm liking it. Also can't recall if I've seen Rojas sneak into a top 100 before, but if he throws strikes and stretches out, he's legit. Nice system.
  7. Connor Gould
    A fireballer who used to wrestle and play football, obviously the track record of health and production isn't there, but I love the fun aspect of it.
  8. Connor Gould
    I'll be real, I understand that selling of Bell, Larnach, Clemens, and Jeffers (if no extension, I'd extend but that's another discussion) is the smart move to make, they're not long term guys and we could use the lineup slots to look at some guys instead of playing out the season as is. And I'd agree 99% of the time. But at this point, it just felt like morale was all around bad between fans and team from last August and into the offseason, so I think there's actually more value this year in standing pat and playing out the season just to rebuild the culture. Things are delicate, but the vibes are up and that means something, I wouldn't risk it. Also, I'm not sure that those guys are actually valuable on the market outside of Jeffers. Rentals like Larnach and Bell who are mostly bat first guys will probably only bring in a prospect that's around 20-30th in the org. Normally, I'd say better than nothing, but I'm just feeling different this year.
  9. Connor Gould
    If he can develop into an 85 wRC+ 9-hole guy who plays defense like a gold glove contender at the premium position that is SS, it's an awesome pick. I'd love to dream on a prime Andrelton Simmons comp, but that's not realistic.
  10. Connor Gould
    He was so good in 2023 and 2024, 2025 was okay but playable. I get that this year was so unplayably bad that he had to go down, but I definitely think his track record was long enough to get one more chance now that he's been crushing it at AAA. And I'm not worried about him having a 28% AAA K rate while producing, he's a kind of guy that can be good while striking out in the low 30s percent of the time, just can't be 39 like it was this year. I don't know who I'd bump from the lineup, but I'd have him as the next guy up if someone gets injured, if not him then Roden. Gotta have a final eval on these guys so that we know what the plan is with Jenkins and Mendez.
  11. Connor Gould
    My main thought on Lee is that he's starting to develop into a slightly above average power based hitter, but he's doing so at a level that would play really well at short but only plays OK at a bat first spot like third. It's like how we had Kepler as a glove first RF who'd put up right around 100 OPS+/wRC+ numbers, and it was fine enough, but left you wanting a bit more from a bat first spot. He played about a season's worth of short with -9 OAA before he got the hook. Those numbers are bad, and his speed indicates there's probably not any more range in the tank, but I would've preferred to at least see the rest of the season's worth of time to confirm it. It's similar to how I feel about Keaschall at 2B, he played 1000 bad innings of 2B, but his bat just doesn't play in cOF and it's organizationally crowded, so he needs to stick at 2B to have a future and unlike Lee he seems to have athleticism.
  12. Connor Gould
    Prielipp this year has gone from a career high of 23.1 innings to now 65, reaching AAA in the process and putting up 10.8 K/9. Some ups and downs, but if you look at the big picture this is definitely a successful year for him. Hopefully he can finish the year healthy and around 80 innings, would put him on track to try to hit maybe 125 innings in 2026 and hopefully have some of them in the MLB.
  13. Connor Gould
    Does anyone know anything about Mike Paredes and if he could have a future? Because I'm not familiar with him and while he is a 25 year old in AA with a low K rate, his last outing puts him at a 2.54 ERA in 88.2 innings.
  14. Connor Gould
    We signed Correa after deeming Josh Donaldson's contract to be a bad return on investment, and at the end of the day, Correa left the Twins with an OPS 45 points lower than Donaldson's during his tenure for more money. Sure, his SS defense more than made up that difference, but nobody seemed to broken up about Donaldson, so it checks out that they wouldn't be about Correa.
  15. Connor Gould
    Anyone know anything about that pitcher Josh Klein that threw the 5 scoreless AA innings yesterday? I hadn't heard of him, but I checked his stats, and he's got a 3.12 ERA in 80.2 innings with 95/24 K/BB at AA this year. Is he a legit prospect?
  16. Connor Gould
    It feels like we got a fair return of a solid low minors lottery ticket for an expiring #4/5 starter/October reliever, but we get a minor contract dump as a throw-in and people are against it just because of principles. Like there is inherent virtue in spending more money, so because we dumped $2 million it's inherently bad. That seems way too dogmatic, I'd be satisfied with the return without the Dobnak dump, it's in line with Paddack's value, and I really doubt that another $2 million dollars would've made a significant difference in prospect quality.
  17. Connor Gould
    Nice games from Julien and Martin, I would definitely like to see those 2 get another look in the MLB, maybe after some spots clear after the deadline. Julien especially, in his short time in the MLB this year he got his hard hit rates back to being good but a bad launch angle meant he didn't get results. But his AAA numbers make me think that 2023 Julien is still in there.
  18. Connor Gould
    I'm conflicted on Prielipp. Obviously, he's always had stuff and it's fun to dream on, but at this point he's 24 and after throwing 28 college innings he's had 82 career pro innings. I'd love to see an ace, but I really don't know if he'll ever build up to the 150-180 innings range. I wonder if he could be one of those 80-100 innings a year as a bullpen/bulk guy in the future. But still, nice to see him pitching well and healthy this year, hope he gets bumped to AAA soon.
  19. Connor Gould
    I do love the clusterbombing the midrounds for pitching prospects strategy, the more volatile spot could use more rolls of the dice. I hope the 6' 11" guy makes it up, he looks like he'd be fun to watch. I was already enjoying that we took an O-lineman SP in the late 1st.
  20. Connor Gould
    Rookie Julien was too good not to at least give a shot to come back to life. Miranda did last year, so it's possible. I was hoping that he would learn a lot from Carlos Santana as similar styles of hitters last year, but obviously it didn't work out. I think either of Julien or Lee playing well is important with regards to lineup construction. I don't like Wallner leading off when he could be middle of the order, but he has to do it by default since Correa lives in the 2 hole and Buxton/Lewis/Miranda don't have the patience. My ideal lineup looks like Julien Correa Buxton Lewis Wallner Miranda Larnach Jeffers France But Julien or Lee needs to step up or else it all falls apart
  21. Connor Gould
    Looking at his baseball savant page, it appears that during his down year last year, his hard hit and barrel rates stayed in line with his numbers during his good years, but his strikeout rate shot up which killed him. His chase rate got better but his whiff rate got worse. That seems to imply that the talent is still there, but he tried a new approach that didn't really work for him. Hopefully he can bounce back from that.
  22. Connor Gould
    I'd be down for a Justin Turner signing for sure. Afterall, if we look at our current starting lineup vs righties, we'd get C-Jeffers 1B-Miranda 2B-Julien/Lee 3B-Lewis SS-Correa LF-Larnach CF-Buxton RF-Wallner DH-????? Unless you like Julen/Lee or Castro as the primary DH, we're a bat short. In the long term, Emmanuel Rodriguez will claim that spot, but in the short term we need a guy. Turner would fit great as the DH that also plays 1B on Miranda's off days. I understand the argument that you can just put one of the starters at DH as a half off day and play Castro there, but I feel like you can only really get away with that roster strategy if you're regular lineup is absolutely stacked, and I'm a bit iffy about that. Plus, we have enough guys with injury histories that any additional depth in terms of offensive strength would be nice.
  23. Connor Gould
    Assuming that our starters are 1B-Miranda, 2B-one of Julien or Lee, 3B-Lewis, and SS-Correa, that would mean that Castro is locked in as the INF5, and with Bader signed as OF4, Castro will be much more of an infielder than outfielder. All that being said, there aren't that many reps to be had for that INF6 guy which isn't good for a young guy, so it'd check out that one of Lee or Julien starts in the minors and a veteran that can play some SS holds down that last spot. Once an inevitable injury hits, Lee/Julien would get called up and jump said veteran anyways. That being said, if they have enough money to bring in another free agent, that seems like not that worthwhile of a roster spot to invest money. Personally, I'd put that money into a 1B/DH, since there's currently a Santana/Kiriloff sized hole in the depth chart, and I'd like a free agent to keep that spot warm until E-Rod is ready to take it. Obviously, there's also the potential that this is a SP trade thing. Castro, Julien, or Larnach could very well be part of a package for one, in which case the idea would check out but the money wouldn't.
  24. Connor Gould
    I really like Henriquez, and given that he's out of options, I'd cut Castellano or Tonkin for him. Although a pitching staff is rarely all healthy at once, someone in the pen might be hurt come Opening Day, so I won't sweat that. As for position players, I could see them starting whoever is lower on the depth chart between Lee and Julien in the minors for either Helman or Gasper. Castro has the 5th infield spot locked up, so whoever doesn't get the spot would be position player #13 who starts about once a week. And that's more of a job for a fringe prospect or midtier veteran than it is a prospect who actually matters. Appreciate the article, always fun to speculate on this stuff.
  25. Connor Gould
    Walker JenkinsBrooks LeeAustin MartinEmmanuel RodriguezMarco RayaDavid FestaYunior SeverinoLuke KeaschallKala'i RosarioConnor PrielippCharlee SotoSimeon Woods RichardsonBrandon WinokurCJ CulpepperJair CamargoTanner SchobelJose RodriguezKody FunderburkMatt CanterinoDanny De Andrade
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