What Does a Lost Year Mean for José Miranda?

[Nick Nelson]

Just as quickly as he splashed onto the scene and entrenched himself as a central figure in the Minnesota Twins' plans, José Miranda has written his way out of them.

Even if he can rebound from this disastrous age-25 season, how might Miranda fit in going forward with so many young infielders passing him by?

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

It's kind of wild now to go back and look at pictures from the unveiling of the new Twins branding back in November. The vision for the team's future was so different then from what it turned out to be, as illustrated by Luis Arraez and Jose Miranda bookending the five-player uniform showcase that also featured Jorge Polanco, Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton.

Arraez and Miranda had established themselves as foundational to the Twins lineup, which might help explain why the team's offense was so foundationally dysfunctional in the first half, searching for an identity in their absence. 

Arraez is gone this year and that's largely true of Miranda as well, except not quite: he was worse than gone. Miranda produced a negative-0.6 fWAR in 40 games before going on the injured list, damaging the Twins with both his bat and glove. He was bad at third base and abysmal at the plate, producing a 56 OPS+ in 152 plate appearances.

Going forward, Arraez obviously will not be a part of the franchise's plans, due to a strategic decision that so far looks pretty good. Will the same be true of Miranda, who is now very much at risk of getting lost in the shuffle?

It's tricky to see a path forward for the 25-year-old, whose future here looked so promising so recently. 

Miranda was placed on the 60-day injured list last week, and with a lack of status updates, it seems all but understood his season is over. A spring shoulder injury that was deemed mild at the time has ended up derailing his season and casting a major cloud over Miranda's major-league future. 

 

While he's been sidelined, some major developments have taken place around him. Royce Lewis returned to the fold and has taken a star turn at third base, powering the offense as a rookie in a way that makes Miranda's 2022 campaign pale by comparison.

Meanwhile, last year's first-round pick Brooks Lee is already on the doorstep of the majors. He's playing a mix of short and third in Triple-A, but with Carlos Correa entrenched as shortstop it appears Lee's future is at the hot corner, which always profiled as his best defensive position anyway. That means Lewis will eventually need to relocate – possibly to second base or the outfield.

Needless to say, there's a good bit of a lot of competition at third base within the emerging core and Miranda has put himself squarely behind multiple players in that race. His days at the position might've already been numbered, given how bad he's looked defensively at third. Will the Twins even bother trying to bring him back there next year?

Miranda's clearest path to returning to the picture, it seems, is first base or designated hitter. But these spots are also well staked in Minnesota's young nucleus, with Alex Kirilloff looking like the (hopeful) long-term fixture at first, and a multitude of quality bats vying for designated hitter time – Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach among them. 

Notably, those players are all left-handed hitters, which affords them an edge given the vastly higher number of righty pitchers in the league. Miranda faces a pretty high bar as a right-handed hitter with a spotty track record and unexceptional defensive chops. To understand how readily available this player type is, look no further than Donovan Solano, who was available on a $2 million deal in late February.

To be clear, the version of Miranda we saw for a brilliant stretch of summer 2022 – seemingly backing up his monster 2021 campaign in the minors – is worth making room for. From May 20th to the end of July last year, a rookie Miranda slashed .335/.374/.571 in 50 games, launching 20 extra-base hits and driving in 37. 

He did so in pretty convincing fashion during that altogether brief period of time, too. Miranda would never be confused by anyone for a disciplined hitter, but he made consistently made hard contact while showing an ability to drive the ball oppo. His spray chart via Statcast illustrates an inclination for pull power with an ability to dump singles and doubles the other way on outside pitches. 

Usually, that's a pretty safe formula for success, so it's easy to see why Minnesota started looking at Miranda as a building block type. Unfortunately, the success evaporated this season, as he was overcome by the same limitation that kept him on the fringes of the prospect radar for years: too much soft, useless contact. Getting the bat on everything isn't helpful if you're producing easy outs, and that was the story of Miranda's 2023 season up until he was shut down in July. 

The combination of anemic offense and rough defense made him one of the least valuable players in the league. So that's what Miranda is working back from, at a time where the Twins are ushering a historic rookie class with numerous players solidifying their own places in the franchise's future.

In short, it's hard to imagine how this season could've gone worse for José Miranda. And as a result, it's now hard to envision how he finds his way back into the team's plans going forward, barring some significant injury to another building block type.

As Twins fans know, that's hardly a long-shot. Kirilloff specifically has struggled to stay off the injured list, and the system's depth at first base behind him is relatively sparse. That position seemingly holds the best chance to create another opening for Miranda, but again – even IN the depressing scenario where AK is continually sidetracked by injuries – Miranda still needs to turn around his own narrative as a poor fielder whose hitting prowess appears flatlined.

It'll be very interesting to see how Miranda is viewed and handled heading into the 2024 season. For those who recall how impactful he was at his best, in the not-so-distant past, Miranda will be an intriguing wild-card factor in the franchise's bright overall outlook.

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[CRF]

It honestly wouldn't surprise me if he's traded over the winter. 

[Oldtimer]

13 minutes ago, CRF said:

It honestly wouldn't surprise me if he's traded over the winter. 

Agree. Maybe a pitching prospect. 

[Major League Ready]

Seems like we would be selling very low and he is not bringing anything meaningful back.  I would much rather start him in STP next year instead of selling low and see if he rebounds.   

[Karbo]

I don't know if they trade him in the off season. They may want to see him healthy and hitting in the minors, and then try to get a better prospect or two, or maybe a good reliever?

[umterp23]

you can never have enough pitching and Miranda could bring back a high end pitching prospect or two if you package another high end / low tier prospect from our farm 

[tony&rodney]

The comparison to Solano is right on. Miranda has hit with authority as noted by Nick in the article. There will be interest in those skills from an MLB team. First, Jose needs to be healthy and prove it at the minor league level though. Solano has shown he can hit coming off the bench, which is not an easy task. Can Miranda do the same as a PH/DH/1B/3B guy?

Both Miranda and Larnach may be attractive as second or third pieces in a trade as well. Hard to predict what teams look at the Twins players for value.

[Trov]

I think he starts next year in minors, barring a crazy good spring, and the team sees if he can hit again. His value is at about as low as it can be.  Teams also know we would be selling from depth so we would not get much for him in an offseason trade.  The only way to get much value from him is to see if he can build it back up.  He is not likely to be a cornerstone for us in the future, as he does not have great defense and his bat needs to carry him.  Provided we have other healthy options he is at best our 3rd or 4th option at 3rd next year, and backup to 3rd option at 1st.  

It sucks for him that injury derailed an important season for him, but even if he cannot make it with Twins, there will be a team that gives him a shot in future. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I don't see them selling low on him. He has options, and frankly, IF his shoulder is healthy, he can certainly take on the Solano role (in terms of playing time and which positions to cover.) I hope his shoulder is right, because he has a good bat that will play if his shoulder is healthy.

[TopGunn#22]

It all depends what another team is willing to give up for him so conversations SHOULD be had.  I agree with the idea of giving him a chance to build his value back up at St. Paul, but he really has no future with the Twins.  There are just too many guys in front of him who are better.  

I'd call Miami and see what disappointing young pitching prospect who has battled injuries the last couple of years is available.  They have to be happy with the Arraez trade.  I think they'd be willing to have a conversation.  Maybe a deal would be made this winter.  Maybe early next spring once both the Marlins and Twins confirm better health for each player involved in the trade.  But a trade IS coming.  He has no future with the Twins.  

[Dman]

I agree with others that he needs to build his value back up before trading him.  I also agree with the OP that there really isn't room for him on this team anymore.  He won't be a plus defender anywhere and maybe not even an average one.  He doesn't have great plate discipline to fall back on.  The Twins have far more athletic players to put in the spots Miranda would be in.

Things could change if he hits well at St Paul next year but I think given this Twins team the best case scenario would be for Miranda to get traded to a rebuilding team that can play him a full season and I think he blossoms in time.  I still think he will be a dangerous hitter once he figures things out but I also think that is going to take time and he seems unlikely to fit on this Twins team. 

It looks like 1st base or DH to me so he will need to show the same hit tool or better at AAA to get his next chance.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins have a few players whose values may be a barrier to Jose Miranda finding a spot on the Twins roster. Guys like Martin,  Helman, Pratto, Gordon, and Castro all bring more speed and versatility to play than Miranda. Miranda will play in the majors again though.

[Reptevia]

It’s telling that the picture from less than ONE year ago now shows only one player who is a part of the Twins future. 

[Muppet]

It isn't uncommon for young players to show some flashes of brilliance then fade into mediocrity or obscurity. It might be this teams biggest reason for false optimism. I'll take a stacked lineup of rookies that are outperforming Miranda for now, but I'm not going to count my chickens until they are in their third year. 

As for Miranda. Good luck to the guy. He doesn't look like the bright prospect he once was, but maybe he'll find a few teams that can use him for a half dozen years. Hopefully he'll end up better than Danny Valencia. 

[Tibs]

He's going to have to hit like he did last year to earn a spot on the team. If he does the Twins will find room for him or trade him for an asset.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Jose Miranda is a player with enough talent that he shouldn't just be discarded.  With a good amount of team control left, he could be dealt to a rebuilding team, possibly for an established 1 or 2 year "rental" CF or other OF.  I agree that it might be best to build up a little value in St. Paul, but it really depends if his issues can be blamed entirely on injury or if he is viewed as a flash in the pan by other teams.  Hopefully it's the former, as it gets the Twins more in return and allows Miranda to get on with his career. 

[Cris E]

He's not in a spot far removed from Larnach and Kirillof: injured, flashes of the big talent, little positive defensive value.  Unless someone falls in love with one of them I expect they'll all be kept into spring training to see how rehab went and then trades will go down for 1-2 of them. My guess is MIranda and Larnach go and I have to learn to spell Kirilloff consistently, but if Colorado or someone comes knocking for any of them the Twins will listen closely.

[Blyleven2011]

I sure hope Miranda isn't a 1 and done player ....

If he can be sent to the Arizona fall league  so he can get some game time to prepare for 2024 ,  I'm not sure this is possible because of his 1 year of mlb baseball  ...

Next he should go to driveline  to help him get on track for 2024 ....

Hate to give up on any player to soon ...

[FlyingFinn]

13 minutes ago, Cris E said:

My guess is MIranda and Larnach go and I have to learn to spell Kirilloff consistently

Kirilloff isn't going anywhere. He will at 1B for the Twins next year.

[Cris E]

Miranda has already romped in AZ Fall and the Twins have a bunch of other guys who deserve the chance.

I do agree that a trip to Driveline or some other mystical swing doctor would probably serve him well. He needs months to identify what led to the injury and build a foundation to overcome it by Valentine's Day. The organization isn't suited to that sort of work the way an individual coach is.

[Jocko87]

He needs to get his outfield glove ready and get back to hitting. Play deep, run to the wall and throw it back in. Good enough if he gets the bat going. If he can hit and function in the outfield he will have a role with this squad for as long as he wants. If he can't hit anymore it doesn't matter.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Miranda still has a path to the Twins, but it is a lot more crowded now.

LF is still a revolving door.  Kiriloff could easily slide into that spot if they feel 1B is an option.  However, I can see the Twins working on Julien there during the offseason, with Solano a strong candidate to return next year.  An off-season move to fill that role is also a possibility.

Miranda's best bet right now is to hit well, show the world he is healthy, and force the Twins to either promote him or trade him.  They do not "have" to move him this winter...

[stringer bell]

Miranda has options available and has shown what he can do when healthy. He is always going to be a bat-first guy which limits his ceiling, but playing acceptable first and third base will help him get and keep a major league job. I concur with those that think that trading him would be selling low. Hang on to him and use the option next year if necessary.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Muppet said:

It isn't uncommon for young players to show some flashes of brilliance then fade into mediocrity or obscurity. It might be this teams biggest reason for false optimism. I'll take a stacked lineup of rookies that are outperforming Miranda for now, but I'm not going to count my chickens until they are in their third year. 

As for Miranda. Good luck to the guy. He doesn't look like the bright prospect he once was, but maybe he'll find a few teams that can use him for a half dozen years. Hopefully he'll end up better than Danny Valencia. 

Valencia played 7-8 years with career .740 or so OPS.  

[Otaknam]

Miranda wouldn’t bring much in a trade this off season. So the best decision is to bring him to spring training, work to improve his defense, and show that he can still hit. An injury away from the bigs, or if he plays well a decent trade piece for another prospect. Still, he is behind players like Lee and maybe even some others. 

[DJL44]

Can he rehab the shoulder injury enough that his power returns? If not, he's not going to make it. I think that's been the root cause all season.

[Dave Borton]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

...show the world he is healthy, and force the Twins to either promote him or trade him.  They do not "have" to move him this winter...

Twins rarely show their cards on injuries, but I find them even tighter on Miranda's injury.

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, Dman said:

I agree with others that he needs to build his value back up before trading him.  I also agree with the OP that there really isn't room for him on this team anymore.  He won't be a plus defender anywhere and maybe not even an average one.  He doesn't have great plate discipline to fall back on.  The Twins have far more athletic players to put in the spots Miranda would be in.

Things could change if he hits well at St Paul next year but I think given this Twins team the best case scenario would be for Miranda to get traded to a rebuilding team that can play him a full season and I think he blossoms in time.  I still think he will be a dangerous hitter once he figures things out but I also think that is going to take time and he seems unlikely to fit on this Twins team. 

It looks like 1st base or DH to me so he will need to show the same hit tool or better at AAA to get his next chance.

How does he bring his value back?  I agree with those who point out that Lewis and Lee and Polanco and Julien have blocked him.  I also think Kiriloff keeps him out of 1B and I expect we will have Solano and Farmer back.  Martin may join Larnach, Kepler, Buxton (?), Taylor and Castro in the OF.  

If he is hitting in the  minors at this stage in his career does that count as regaining his value?  I do not have the answer but I feel sorry for him.  He seemed to be on the right path.  

[Dman]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

How does he bring his value back?  I agree with those who point out that Lewis and Lee and Polanco and Julien have blocked him.  I also think Kiriloff keeps him out of 1B and I expect we will have Solano and Farmer back.  Martin may join Larnach, Kepler, Buxton (?), Taylor and Castro in the OF.  

If he is hitting in the  minors at this stage in his career does that count as regaining his value?  I do not have the answer but I feel sorry for him.  He seemed to be on the right path.  

I have the Twins trading Farmer after this season.  They have Correa for short and Lewis can spell him as well as Castro.  Castro is also a versatile defender who can play anywhere and they will likely need room for Lee at some point next year and Lee can play short as well.  Farmer looks redundant in too many ways to me and his .700 OPS seems easily replaced.  He is a favorite of mine but I don't see a spot for him with the Twins likely needing to add Severino and then later Lee.

It is going to be hard for Miranda to build his value up but dominating AAA like he did before would be a good start.  From there maybe the Twins can get him some games at 1st or DH and see how he does again but it will take some time for him to prove that he belongs again.

[ToddlerHarmon]

This year has shown that there will be room for Miranda if he performs, in that Solano, another right-handed, marginal infielder, has received a lot of playing time. Just as with pitchers, we have to get used to the idea that we need a few spare MLB-level bats every year.