Twins 4, Mariners 3: Maeda's Gem and Late-Inning Heroics; Twins Stay Hot

[Nate Palmer]

Kenta Maeda and Luis Castillo dueled, but it was the late-inning offensive heroics that stole the show once again. The Twins win in extras on a Carlos Correa single. 

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score
SP: Kenta Maeda: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K (98 pitches, 58 strikes (59.2%)
Home Runs: 
Top 3 WPA: Max Kepler (0.443), Christian Vazquez (0.300), Jovani Moran (0.170)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) 

Monday night marked the Minnesota Twins second meeting with the Mariners in the last week after playing one another in Seattle last week. With Kenta Maeda starting for the Twins and Luis Castillo starting for the Mariners, the game was set up to be a possible pitchers duel. The only caveat was, would either offense carry with them the familiarity of just seeing their respective opponent and capitalize on it with significant offensive output. 

Castillo Strong Early, Twins Find Success Late
Luis Castillo was dealing early and shut down the Twins offense the first time through the order. Going nine up and nine down and stretching that number to ten until Edouard Julien finally reached base in the fourth inning. Julien would eventually make a mistake on his lead-off from first, resulting in a pick-off to end the fourth inning.   

It looked like it would be a very long night until the fifth inning when Max Kepler finally broke through with the Twins first hit. A single pulled not far off of first base into right field. As Castillo worked the Twins to two outs, it looked like Twins might squander Kepler’s hit. That all changed with the crack of Trevor Larnach’s bat. Larnach launched the ball off the right field wall for a game-tying triple. As the next batter, Christian Vazquez hit his own single to right field to score Larnach, giving the Twins a 2-1 lead to end the fifth. 

While Castillo would leave the game with his team losing, he put forth a great effort. He struck out nine batters after striking eleven Twins out last week. 

Maeda Works His Own Magic
Maeda put together an excellent outing of his own. While Maeda’s outing didn’t look quite as dominant as Castillo, it proved to be just as effective. Maeda worked through contact and some loud contact to hold the Mariners to one run. 

It wasn’t until the lead-off batter of the fifth inning that some of the contact Maeda gave up burned him. When it did, it was because of Tom Murphy’s bat. Murphy absolutely crushed a ball and bounced it off the flowers in center field. 

While Maeda would leave mid-seventh with runners on first and second, he had another solid outing, as has been the norm since returning from the IL. With only one run allowed and eight strikeouts, Maeda left the game in the hands of the bullpen with a Twins lead. 

Bad Baserunning or Aggressive Baserunning?
Throughout the game, Julien made two outs on the base paths. The first was already mentioned, as he was picked off first. The second came in the sixth inning as he tried to go first to third on a Kepler single but was gunned down easily by Teoscar Hernandez.

Immediate gut reaction to both plays is to be upset with Julien’s baserunning. There is undoubtedly a reason to be upset. At the same time, is this simply the result of the Twins trying to make the most of their offensive output by being aggressive on the base paths? 

Just Sunday, we saw that on display with the good and bad outcome. Kepler was aggressive coming home and was gunned down. Gallo was also aggressive as he made his way home but was able to score. It is a situation to keep our eyes on. 

Taxed Bullpen Comes Up Big, Breaks, then Comes Up Big
With most of the Twins bullpen getting good work over the weekend, the Twins attempted to close out the game with a bit of their "B" lineup. Jovani Moran and Jordan Balazovic made it through their innings well. Rocco Baldelli then turned to Griffin Jax to close out the game and give Jhoan Duran the day off. Even though Jax was used only slightly less this weekend and Monday night was his third straight day of work. 

Jax brought the Twins within one pitch of closing out the game. Cal Raleigh produced a single, which led to an unlikely Kolten Wong two-run home run to give the Mariners a 3-2 lead. 

More Late-Inning Magic?
The Twins had late-inning magic over the weekend. Could it happen again? In the bottom of the ninth, Alex Kirilloff got the offense rolling with a double of the left field wall that just stayed in the ballpark. Kepler followed up with a double of his own to tie the game up. Matt Wallner and a pinch-hitting Donovan Solano both had a chance to send everyone home but could not. Sending the Twins to extra-innings once again. 

Jorge Lopez came on for the top of the 10th and got through the inning cleanly. It was a big inning for the Twins and for Lopez, and hopefully works to continue building his confidence. It was once again up to the offense. And that offense was up to the task. Vazquez moved Solano over from second to third. 

That bunt set up the opportunity for a safety squeeze. Jeffers laid down a bunt right in front of home plate. As Solano read it, he decided it wasn't wise to head for home. Instead of being a completely blown play, the Mariners misplayed the bunt on their end, and Jeffers reached first safely.  

That set up a showdown between Carlos Correa and Paul Sewald. A reliever that could be coveted by contending teams as the trade deadline quickly approaches. Correa wasn't about to let Sewald add to his resume Monday evening. The Twins star shortstop slapped a single to right field to walk off the game. 

The game started with a methodical pace but ended in another flurry of big hits late. This walk-off takes the Twins to 9-2 since the All-Star break. 

What’s Next?
The Twins will try and keep things rolling tomorrow against the Mariners. George Kirby, who had the Twins number last time out, will take the mound for Seattle. Pablo Lopez will look to match or better Maeda as he takes the mound. 

Postgame Interviews

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TOT
Ortega	18	0	0	36	0	54
J. López	28	0	0	9	12	49
Jax	0	0	16	8	19	43
Durán	0	0	21	16	0	37
Morán	0	22	0	0	5	27
Pagán	0	15	0	11	0	26
Balazovic	0	0	7	0	12	19
Sands	3	0	0	0	0	3

 

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[BH67]

Great win again, and now a four-game lead. But those White Sox uniforms are ewww.

[DocBauer]

Lou Brown: "It's starting to come together, Pepper. Starting to come together. Yeah!"

Did the Twins win another one?

Did Maeda look great again?

Did Balazovic do the job again?

Did J Lopez just have another good appearance after his NIGHTMARE appearance?

Don't know who Pepper is, but he better be nodding his head right now.

[jkcarew]

How about next game the scoreboard operator hangs a ‘9’ over every inning of the Line Score. Worth a try, I say.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Starting to love this ball club

[tytybuckets]

Vibes are great right now… but that dark cloud of us having not signed Walker Jenkins is bothering me. I pray we get this deal done.

[IaBeanCounter]

What does Jax have against Maeda?  Two starts in row where he gives up a homerun to snatch a win from Maeda.

[FlyingFinn]

At least for July the FO is looking like they made great decisions that most of us have not liked this year - keeping Pagan, keeping Kepler and trading for Jorge Lopez last year (okay, his is only one game and not July).

[Schmoeman5]

Just wanted to comment on bad baserunning vs aggressive baserunning. In Juliens case it was a terrible decision. That was a hard hit ball, 1 hopper to the rightfielder. Even if there was a bad throw, he's out. And that was after he got caught snoozing at 1st. Neither play was close. Hopefully he'll be more attentive. Fortunately it didn't t affect the outcome. 

[SwainZag]

9-2 since the break!

[Aerodeliria]

9 minutes ago, IaBeanCounter said:

What does Jax have against Maeda?  Two starts in row where he gives up a homerun to snatch a win from Maeda.

My question exactly...that was an ugly inning for him. He got beat by a .154 spray hitter with zero homeruns until today. Use the 98 mph fastball against those weak hitters!!

[Aerodeliria]

As I always say, when Maeken is getting swings and misses, you know he is feeling fine.

[Brett]

26 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Lou Brown: "It's starting to come together, Pepper. Starting to come together. Yeah!"

Did the Twins win another one?

Did Maeda look great again?

Did Balazovic do the job again?

Did J Lopez just have another good appearance after his NIGHTMARE appearance?

Don't know who Pepper is, but he better be nodding his head right now.

I like the parallels. Lovable loser home team gets hot, wins division, and beats the Yankees in the playoffs. And Duran throws even harder than Wild Thing.

[IaBeanCounter]

2 minutes ago, Aerodeliria said:

My question exactly...that was an ugly inning for him. He got beat by a .154 spray hitter with zero homeruns until today. Use the 98 mph fastball against those weak hitters!!

My comment was in jest, but Jax had a rough start this year with soft contact hits.  The two homers were on hanging sweepers, hopefully Seattle is the only team that will homers off him.

[JD-TWINS]

9 minutes ago, Aerodeliria said:

My question exactly...that was an ugly inning for him. He got beat by a .154 spray hitter with zero homeruns until today. Use the 98 mph fastball against those weak hitters!!

Didn’t seem to have a feel for his best pitch - the slider. He looked really sharp against the other guys he faced……really good stuff (sinker/fastball) just missed with a hung, spinning slider. I still like him with a little bit of rest - essentially never asked to go 3 days in a row. Got the win……JORGE off the scrap pile!!!!!!!

[stringer bell]

15 minutes ago, Aerodeliria said:

My question exactly...that was an ugly inning for him. He got beat by a .154 spray hitter with zero homeruns until today. Use the 98 mph fastball against those weak hitters!!

Kolten Wong isn't exactly a spray hitter. He has 84 homers in his career and his lifetime OPS is .718. He reminds me of Odor (released today by the Padres) in love with power to the point he's become a bad hitter.

[LastOnePicked]

These kinds of wins matter. These kinds of late summer winning stretches really matter. Fun to see. Keep it going, boys.

[USAFChief]

Another GREAT WIN. Hats off to Maeda. Hats off to the bats for coming back from a gut punch. Heck, hats off to the bullpen, despite Jax giving up the HR. 

 

Julien getting nailed at third (by a lot) is particularly bad baserunning because it ended the inning. Don't make the 1st or 3rd out at third. 

 

Nitpic: the win probability chart cannot possibly be correct. I think it somehow missed the Wong HR in the 9th. 

 

[ashbury]

Not sure the June '23 Twins win this game.  Maybe the August '23 Twins won't either.  But right now I'm enjoying these July '23 Twins.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

18 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I think it somehow missed the Wong HR in the 9th.

So it wasn't the Wight home wun, was it?

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Nitpic: the win probably chart cannot possibly be correct. I think it somehow missed the Wong HR in the 9th.

I saw the same thing and its not up on Fangraphs anymore.  Here's the baseball savant chart, looks about right for this roller coaster ride. 

[UK Twin]

Given I was in Minnesota and went to Target Field to catch one of the Twins 9 wins since the All Star break I'd like to claim some credit for the 9-2 run (I was there for 10 of those games). 😀

I also recall saying a few weeks ago July presented an opportunity to go on a good run due to the schedule. So far so good. 

Last 2 games have really shown a difference in the Twins mindset since the All Star break. 2 wins where I really wouldn't see us winning a few weeks ago. Kepler looks like something of his 2019 self again and AK is tearing the cover off the ball. Moving Correa to lead off and having 3 lefties in the 2-4 positions against RHP seems to have done the trick.

Very pleased that Lopez pitched an excellent inning last night too. Facing the heart of their batting order with a runner on second I wasn't convinced he wouldn't at least allow the runner on 2nd to score but he did a great job, inducing weak contact from all 3 batters he faced. 

[Melissa]

1 hour ago, UK Twin said:

Given I was in Minnesota and went to Target Field to catch one of the Twins 9 wins since the All Star break I'd like to claim some credit for the 9-2 run (I was there for 10 of those games). 😀

I also recall saying a few weeks ago July presented an opportunity to go on a good run due to the schedule. So far so good. 

Could you stick around a while longer, please? The team can clearly benefit from the good vibes of your presence!!

[bighat]

I'm still not convinced this is anything more than a mediocre-at best team, but as a fan I'm happy to see them grabbing these W's. 

Hitting stats are still atrocious, and the team remains unwatchable - but again, glad they are winning. 

 

[CRF]

FANTASTIC win! I thought we were dunzo when Jax gave up the homer. To pull this one out was huge! It would be nice to have some easier wins, but these are character builders. Keep it up!

[VivaBomboRivera!]

2 hours ago, bighat said:

Hitting stats are still atrocious

27 basis point improvement in batting average for the period 30 Jun - 24 Jul over the first 82 games.  Significant improvement in OBP. Almost no change in K rate.  😀😀☹️

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Another GREAT WIN. Hats off to Maeda. Hats off to the bats for coming back from a gut punch. Heck, hats off to the bullpen, despite Jax giving up the HR. 

 

Julien getting nailed at third (by a lot) is particularly bad baserunning because it ended the inning. Don't make the 1st or 3rd out at third. 

 

Nitpic: the win probably chart cannot possibly be correct. I think it somehow missed the Wong HR in the 9th. 

 

Out at 3rd was careless. Probably shouldn’t get picked off at 1B either…..2 outs on the bases in same game screams “is this guy very bright?” ……can’t give away outs!

[Peter]

Another intense comeback!!! These games matter!!!  I thought twins were toast after giving up home run in 9th but they didn’t quit! Huge massive win!!! Division lead up to 4!!  

[Matt Braun]

Max Kepler is slashing .341/.378/.585 since the break. Seems good. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, bighat said:

I'm still not convinced this is anything more than a mediocre-at best team, but as a fan I'm happy to see them grabbing these W's. 

Hitting stats are still atrocious, and the team remains unwatchable - but again, glad they are winning. 

 

I sure have enjoyed watching this team adjust from soft to gritty. Most of the hitters have listened to the hitting advice of their their new hitting coach, Royce Lewis.