Week in Review: Bouncing Off The Ropes

The Weekly Nutshell:
Resilience was the defining characteristic of this Twins team in the early part of the season, and it's a trait that's sticking with them as the second half unfolds. They looked to be on the ropes in Cleveland after dropping the first two games, but rallied to take the next two, including a marathon 12-inning victory in the finale. Friday's opener against the Athletics was a gut punch — a shutout loss against a bad team with a bad pitching staff — but the Twins rebounded to take the series and move back within a game of .500.

The rest of the American League shows signs of awakening for the stretch run, including a Boston team that has streaked into the Wild Card picture and a Detroit team that is slowly closing the gap in the Central. But the Twins are doing enough to hang around and make a strong case for adding at the deadline as they remain within striking distance of a postseason spot (one game out) and even the division (three and a half out).

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/20 through Sun, 7/26
***
Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 53-54)
Run Differential Last Week: -6 (Overall: -30)
Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (3.5 GB) 

Latest Game Results

Game 101 | CLE 13, MIN 4: Ryan Clobbered for Six Home Runs in Crushing Defeat

• Ryan: 4 IP, 8 ER, 10 H, 0 BB, 3 K, 6 HR

Game 102 | CLE 5, MIN 2: Lineup Goes Silent vs. Lefty Starter, Contention Hopes Fade

• Offense: 9 K, 1 BB, 0-5 RISP

Game 103 | MIN 10, CLE 6: Bats Break Out to Snap Losing Streak at Four Games

• Lee: 2-5, HR, 4 RBI

Game 104 | MIN 3, CLE 1 (12): Twins Outlast Guardians in Duel, Salvage Series Split

• Bradley: 7 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 5 K

Game 105 | ATH 2, MIN 0: Offense Manages Only Two Hits in Ugly Shutout Loss 

• Caratini: 0-4, 3 K

Game 106 | MIN 2, ATH 0: Rojas Steps Up in Emergency Start to Spearhead Victory

• Rojas: 4 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 5 K

Game 107 | MIN 11, ATH 8: Big Early Lead Holds Up in a Sloppy Sunday Matinee

• Jeffers: 3-5, 3 RBI

NEWS & NOTES

He wasn't quite ready to go coming out of the All-Star break, but it didn't take too much longer for Byron Buxton, who was activated on Monday ahead of a key series in Cleveland. Somewhat surprisingly, infielder Tristan Gray was the man optioned to make room, meaning that Alan Roden stays on the roster for now while the Twins continue to carry three catchers. They've had to get creative in trying to find playing time for all three backstops — on Sunday, Alex Jackson made his first professional start at first base. 

On Tuesday, recent waiver pickup Jack Anderson was called up to join the Twins bullpen, swapping places with another recent acquisition in Woo-Suk Go who was sent to Triple-A. Anderson was excellent across three appearances, allowing zero runs in 3 ⅓ innings, but nonetheless returned to the minors on Sunday to make room for the activation of Cole Sands, who had rough re-entry after being down for three months (0.1 IP, 5 ER). 

Meanwhile, Mike Paredes went on the injured list with an oblique strain, with Connor Prielipp activated to start the finale against the Athletics. Sidelined for a couple weeks by a blister on his finger, Prielipp looked great in his return, allowing one run on two hits in 5 ⅔ innings.

One other note on Go: prior to making in his first appearance at Triple-A on Friday, he was ejected when a foreign substance was discovered on his glove. As a result, he received a 10-game suspension, which he began serving on Saturday. You don't see that too often. We'll see how long he is for the 40-man roster following an unimpressive stint with the big-league club.

HIGHLIGHTS

Taj Bradley bounced back from a rocky outing at Wrigley with another gem on Thursday, helping the Twins earn a series split against Cleveland via seven frames of one-run ball. Bradley kept pace with a dominant Gavin Williams and paved way for an extra-innings win. It was the third time in his past four starts that Bradley has pitched seven innings while allowing two runs or fewer, and the Twins are 13-7 when he takes the mound this year, winning seven of the last eight. 

On Saturday, Paredes was the scheduled starter but a last-minute scratch after an oblique injury popped up pregame. This forced Kendry Rojas into action as an emergency starter and the left-hander stepped up in a big way, tossing four shutout innings with just one hit and one walk allowed. When he's in the zone, he's effective, and that was the case in this one. 

Rojas gave way to a bullpen that shut down the A's over the final five innings, allowing only two hits. The relief corps also came through brilliantly behind Bradley in Thursday's finale against Cleveland: Andrew Morris, Yoendrys Gómez, Tommy Nance, Taylor Rogers and Anderson combined in that one for five innings of scoreless, one-hit ball, with each of the latter three stranding an auto-runner in extra innings. Anderson closed out the 12th and became the 12th Twins pitcher to record a save this year.

The bullpen has certainly had its share of ups and downs, and that was the case last week, but they have delivered some absolutely critical performances. Here in July the relievers have played a big role in keeping Minnesota's season alive, entering play on Sunday with a 2.64 ERA and the second-highest WPA in the American League this month. 

At the plate, Trevor Larnach put together another stellar stretch, collecting seven hits and five RBIs in 17 at-bats. He contributed the go-ahead hit on Thursday, lacing an RBI single in the top of the 12th in a tough matchup against a left-handed reliever. The outfielder shows no signs of slowing down, with a .974 OPS here in July after posting a .918 mark in June. He's batting .404 with a 1.061 OPS with runners in scoring position. An intriguing deadline figure, to be sure.

Roden also provided more clutch moments. His game-tying RBI single off Cade Smith in the eighth inning of Thursday's game made possible the eventual win in extras. He drove in the only two runs in Saturday's 2-0 victory on one swing in the sixth inning. Roden hasn't been terribly productive overall, batting .219 with no extra-base hits through 13 games, but he's made an outsized impact in leverage and the underlying numbers are pretty good. I'm definitely interested to see more; he just needs steady playing time, which is a little hard to come by with Larnach and Luke Keaschall manning the outfield corners while Austin Martin also vies for opportunities. This logjam is part of what makes Larnach in intriguing deadline figure.

LOWLIGHTS

Fresh off appearing in the All-Star Game, Joe Ryan opened up the biggest series of the Twins season with one of the worst performances in franchise history. Ryan was pounded for six home runs in four innings, surrendering 10 hits and eight earned runs against one of the least powerful lineups in baseball. Just an astonishing clunker at the most inopportune of moments. Days later, Ryan had his planned second start of the week pushed back due to arm fatigue, which might help explain the brutal results on Monday. 

The Twins offense has been a signature strength this season, but has tailed off since the All-Star break. The lineup was quiet last week outside of double-digit efforts on Wednesday and Sunday, and has scored two or fewer in five of 10 contests since the break. Their susceptibility to left-handed starters remains a glaring issue as the Twins were stifled by Parker Messick in a 5-2 loss on Tuesday, and then by Jacob Lopez (who entered the game with a 6.64 ERA) in Friday's 2-0 loss.

Byron Buxton has been slow to get going since his return from the IL, with four singles in 23 at-bats. He hasn't homered since June 22nd. Josh Bell has cooled off considerably after surging into the break — he went 4-for-24 and on Thursday had one of the worst games at the plate you will see (0-for-5 with four strikeouts and a GIDP). Ryan Kreidler was 1-for-18 on the week and had a .322 OPS in July before breaking out with two doubles and a triple on Sunday.

Perhaps the most concerning offensive laggard is Victor Caratini. The pendulum has swung again for the streaky hitter, with a scorching month of June giving way to an ice-cold July. He's slashing .229/.260/.292 this month and the past week saw him go 3-for-17 with six strikeouts and no walks. With buzz building around Ryan Jeffers as a trade candidate, Caratini could be positioned as primary catcher for the rest of this year and into the next. The Twins need him to lock in and help get the offense back into a more consistent place.

TRENDING STORYLINE

With his 22nd start of the season pushed back to this Wednesday against Kansas City, Ryan will likely take the mound just once more ahead of the trade deadline. It's an outing that looms large. Every game feels weighty on its own for the team, given the stakes at this stage of the season, and the right-hander himself has much to prove coming off an alarmingly bad start in Cleveland. He's got a history of drop-offs in the second half, and that performance coming out of the break is certainly not going to help him shake the rep.

From my view, the decision to trade or not trade Ryan is THE biggest story of this deadline, with major implications on the team's course going forward. Rumors of a rejected offer from the Red Sox last year that supposedly included Payton Tolle and Franklin Arias underscore the kind of system-transforming haul that Minnesota's #1 starter could potentially command if the front office chooses to lean further into the rebuild and capitalize on a sell-high situation. 

Will they choose that path? And will potential suitors feel confident enough in Ryan's outlook the rest of the way to pay a price justifying such a move? The coming week could prove fairly decisive on both fronts. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Following a day off on Monday, the Twins will pick up their homestand with another bottom-tier team rolling into town. The Royals are in last place at 45-62, and are currently lacking their best player with Bobby Witt Jr. on the injured list. A series win would put Minnesota at the .500 mark entering a crucial showdown in Seattle against a Mariners team that is neck-and-neck in the Wild Card race. The Twins will have their hands full in that one with match-ups against three of the AL's best starting pitchers on the docket.

TUESDAY, JULY 28: ROYALS @ TWINS — RHP Seth Lugo v. RHP Taj Bradley
WEDNESDAY, JULY 29: ROYALS @ TWINS — RHP Randy Dobnak v. RHP Joe Ryan
THURSDAY, JULY 30: ROYALS @ TWINS — LHP Noah Cameron v. RHP Bailey Ober
FRIDAY, JULY 31: TWINS @ MARINERS — RHP Zebby Matthews v. RHP Bryan Woo
SATURDAY, AUGUST 1: TWINS @ MARINERS — LHP Connor Prielipp v. RHP Logan Gilbert
SUNDAY, AUGUST 2: TWINS @ MARINERS — RHP Taj Bradley v. RHP George Kirby

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