Hayes: Twins To Sign Rich Hill & Homer Bailey

[John Bonnes]

According to Dan Hayes, the Minnesota Twins are signing two starting pitchers, Rich Hill and Homer Bailey. (UPDATE: The Twins have confirmed the signings.)

Bailey is a 33-year-old right-hander who posted a 4.57 ERA last year and finished his year with the Oakland A’s. Rich Hill is a 39-year-old left-hander who posted a 2.45 ERA last year, but will not be able to pitch until June or July due to elbow surgery he underwent in October.

Neither represents the Twins' stated offseason goal of adding an “impact” pitcher, and might represent an acknowledgement it’s possible no such move is coming, or at least an insurance policy if it does not.

Image courtesy of Jake Roth, USA Today

According to Dan Hayes, the Minnesota Twins are signing two starting pitchers, Rich Hill and Homer Bailey. (UPDATE: The Twins have confirmed the signings.)

Bailey is a 33-year-old right-hander who posted a 4.57 ERA last year and finished his year with the Oakland A’s. Rich Hill is a 39-year-old left-hander who posted a 2.45 ERA last year, but will not be able to pitch until June or July due to elbow surgery he underwent in October.

Neither represents the Twins' stated offseason goal of adding an “impact” pitcher, and might represent an acknowledgement it’s possible no such move is coming, or at least an insurance policy if it does not.

The Twins missed out on the starting pitchers at the top of this year’s free agent market, though they retained veterans Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda.

Bailey is a pitcher Twins Daily’s Tom Froemming has brought up frequently this offseason. Earlier this month, Tom pointed out some ways in which Bailey compares favorably to Madison Bumgarner. Bailey gave up a lower OPS to non-pitchers (.719 vs. .764), had a higher K% vs. non-pitchers (21.4 vs. 21.3), surrendered a lower hard hit % (38.7 vs. 41.5) and a lower barrels/plate appearance % (4.0 vs. 6.3).

https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1212058730394767360

Tom also used Bailey as a case study in pointing out how it may not be the worst-case scenario if Jake Odorizzi were to decline his qualifying offer.

. Bailey had a better ERA, WHIP and xwOBA than both Odorizzi and Jose Berrios from June 13 forward.

Hill has been outstanding - when he's been on the mound. He's had a career ERA of 3.82, including a 2.91 ERA since 2015. But he also hasn't been able to make more than 25 starts since 2007. His contract reflects the risk and reward he presents: he will make $3M guaranteed, with the possibility of making an additional $9.5M in performance bonuses.

https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1212058963266682881

The moves will likely disappointTwins fans, who have been waiting for the team to achieve its offseason goal of adding “impact” pitching, as neither pitcher represents impact pitching, or even an upgrade to last year’s starting rotation. They do, however, establish a “floor” for the starting rotation, which still had two vacant spots, not to mention Pineda missing the first 39 games of the season due to a PED suspension going back to September.

Instead of filling those 2+ spots with internal candidates like Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe, they now, in theory, have all five spots covered by Jose Berrios, Odorizzi, Pineda, Bailey & Hill - though they will still need coverage at the beginning of the season for Pineda and Hill.

Bailey's $7M one-year deal and Hill's $3+M guaranteed also leave payroll room for a more significant move this offseason. Twins Daily projects the Twins to have about a $116M payroll after the signing, below last year's level, and about $20 million below our projection of the Twins team's payroll budget.

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[BobAzar]

ok, I guess...

 

A look at the Pohlad's earlier this week:

 

[jorgenswest]

Reasons to hope on Homer...

 

Homer Bailey was very good with the A’s in the second half. In two August starts against the Yankees he struck out 17 and walked 1. In those 11.1 innings he gave up 3 earned runs. He Pitched against Houston in September giving up 1 run. The A’s went 2-1 in those late season starts.

 

Eno Sarris in the Athletic wrote about his splitter

 

https://theathletic.com/1151891/2019/08/21/the-as-prove-their-formula-is-working-in-big-win-over-yankees/

[MMMordabito]

Good deal. Both one year.  Bailey can be the Jeremy Guthrie.  Hill can get healthy and then be the Johnny Cueto, or he can not get healthy and the Twins will have to do a deadline deal.

 

2020 Twins could be the 2015 Royals.  Except power instead of speed.

[Old Twins Cap]

Hill is recovering from elbow surgery and will need a roster spot?

 

Bailey, didn't he throw a couple times against the Twins recently, kind of 5 to 6 innings of swing and miss stuff?

 

Hill, on his game, can be a playoff pitcher; maybe Bailey too for 4 or 5 innings.

 

It's something at least.

[Whammy]

The floor gets higher yet!

[SpicyGarvSauce]

 

Reasons to hope on Homer...

Homer Bailey was very good with the A’s in the second half. In two August starts against the Yankees he struck out 17 and walked 1. In those 11.1 innings he gave up 3 earned runs. He Pitched against Houston in September giving up 1 run. The A’s went 2-1 in those late season starts.

Eno Sarris in the Athletic wrote about his splitter

https://theathletic.com/1151891/2019/08/21/the-as-prove-their-formula-is-working-in-big-win-over-yankees/

So, the Twins signed Bailey because he is a Yankee killer.

 

I am on board!

[MMMordabito]

 

Hill is recovering from elbow surgery and will need a roster spot?

 

High chance he goes on the 60-day IL out of the gate .... Those incentives are pretty creative and work well for both team and player.  

 

[Mike Sixel]

Long term solutions found! I have no idea if it works for this year, but they are setting themselves up to be pitching poor next year, again.

[Dave Overlund]

We could have all saved ourselves a lot of frustration if we would have just accepted that these were the type of additions they were going to make. I fell for it, too.

 

The more things change (FO), the more they stay the same (ownership).

 

[USAFChief]

Long term solutions found! I have no idea if it works for this year, but they are setting themselves up to be pitching poor next year, again.

false. Rich Hill and Homer Bailey will be available.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

 

We could have all saved ourselves a lot of frustration if we would have just accepted that these were the type of additions they were going to make. I fell for it, too. The more things change (FO), the more they stay the same (ownership).

Exactly. Personally, I never bought into the whole idea that the Twins were all of a sudden going to change their philosophy and go out and get an impact arm(s).

 

You don't set your expectations up for failure, and you don't feel terrible when underwhelm...again.

[Dman]

 

Long term solutions found! I have no idea if it works for this year, but they are setting themselves up to be pitching poor next year, again.

 

I agree.  They must really believe the farm is going to produce what they need.  I sure hope Graterol, Duran and Balazovic turn into something this year or next year could be brutal for us.

[Mike Sixel]

So, nothing has changed. Inexpensive free agents. No trading of big time prospects. The opposite of Houston. For three years, this board said things would be different.

 

I hope this works, and they are great this year.

[Musk21]

On Hill:

 

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the deal carries a $3 million guarantee.

[MMMordabito]

 

Long term solutions found! I have no idea if it works for this year, but they are setting themselves up to be pitching poor next year, again.

 

That part is a bit frustrating, but the silver lining is that they will have the early part of the season to see if the likes of Thorpe, Dobnak, Smeltzer or Graterol can be part of that long term solution.  It would be nice if the Bailey contract had an option.  Early report doesn't look that way though.

 

Short term, I believe Bailey is a clear upgrade over Perez.  Hill is better than Gibson, if healthy.  That, of course, is the big question. 

[Dave Overlund]

Who would you rather have? Gibson/Perez or Hill/Bailey? Is this even a slight upgrade when you consider Hill’s inability to stay on the field?

[mikelink45]

I will hope that Hill at age 40 can recover to be what he was 2 and 3 years ago.  An elbow injury at his age is a danger sign and if we are signing him to a Pineda like deal he is at the wrong end of an aging curve.  I love what he did, but have concern about what he can do.  

 

Bailey was the butt of many jokes in Cincinnati after getting his too large contract.  He has six WAR in 13 years.  Career FIP 4.20, Career Whip 1.37.  He has 3 good years out of 13.  Last year was one of them so let's hope that he starts a new good trend.  The A's did not keep him. Why?  

 

Bailey is not someone I am excited by, but In the end, if is fine if Hill and Bailey compete with the young pitchers we have and are not just handed the rotation spots.

[Alex Schieferdecker]

Impact pitching, baby.

[Musk21]

More updates:

 

Bailey’s contract includes a $7MM guarantee, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). He also has some incentive pay available, but only if he gets up to 180 innings.

 

Hill is guaranteed $3MM, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets. His contract includes a hefty $9.5MM in total available incentives which can be met by recording only 15 starts and/or 75 innings thrown.

 

[Mike Sixel]

At those prices, why not bring back Gibson?

[Musk21]

 

At those prices, why not bring back Gibson?

I'm going to guess that many teams (and agents!) underestimated how high the demand and prices would get on starting pitchers. Twins might've gone after Gibson and Odorizzi definitely would have declined his QO.

 

[AZTwin]

Love the signings.  Hill can be a stud.  He's out until Mid-Summer but what an impact down the stretch.  Plus he will provide much needed mentorship to the pitching core.

 

Homer Bailey also comes with a lot of experience.  I'm not expecting much out of him, but a solid guy to plug in the 4th-5th spot as we wait for these rookies to come up.  Perfect stop gap with all the pitching prospects we have.

[DutchFarmer]

Would like both of these a heck of a lot better if there were reasonably priced team options for 2021 attached. 

 

I suppose I'm happy in the sense that there appears to be reason for hope that these turn out to be bargains (even if the odds don't seem really high).

[twins_89]

Falvey and Levine are the masters of doing the absolute minimum in terms of adding outside talent. They manage to fill holes, but do it in the most uninspiring way possible.

[MMMordabito]

 

At those prices, why not bring back Gibson?

 

Didn't want to go three years?  

 

Falvey thinking Duran and Dobnak better options long term? (Going with guys he acquired)

[Strato Guy]

This is underwhelming to say the least. Maybe I was expecting too much, but these moves tell me that the Twins are probably done making "impact" pitching moves.

 

[AZTwin]

 

I'm going to guess that many teams (and agents!) underestimated how high the demand and prices would get on starting pitchers. Twins might've gone after Gibson and Odorizzi definitely would have declined his QO.

 

Both are a bit more than I expected by about $2-3M each.  Rich Hill's guarantee of $3M isn't a bad gamble though.   Still good signings though.

[darin617]

 

Hill is recovering from elbow surgery and will need a roster spot?

 

Bailey, didn't he throw a couple times against the Twins recently, kind of 5 to 6 innings of swing and miss stuff?

 

Hill, on his game, can be a playoff pitcher; maybe Bailey too for 4 or 5 innings.

 

It's something at least.

 

They have to wait for the season to start to place Hill on the 60 day IL. So they can't free up a roster spot until then.

[nicksaviking]

 

At those prices, why not bring back Gibson?

 

I'd prefer to get some rotation stalwarts, but if the option is doing multi year deals for pitchers of Gibson's caliber, I'd rather cherry pick my rotation each year.