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Whammy

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Everything posted by Whammy

  1. Whammy
    I'm pretty comfortable calling a guy with a 0.782 OPS over his last 4 years and a 0.814 OPS last year an "800 OPS" guy. I know that removes Luis Arraez from your plan though, even at .782, and ignoring the fact that a .750 OPS at Catcher is more valuable than a .750 OPS at 2B
  2. Whammy
    Like I said above, the Pohlads are looking at their asset and thinking, that if certain things are implemented in the new CBA their asset might be worth significantly more money. Obviously that's why they think it makes sense to hang on to franchise. They might think to themselves that if a salary floor/cap gets implemented with revenue sharing the team might be able to sell for $2.3B. And they might think there's a 50% chance of that happening. There isn't much downside to hanging onto the Twins and hoping that system gets implemented. If it doesn't get implemented, then it's worth the same as it is today (roughly). But then along comes Varde Partners. They can do math too. Maybe they have different projections. Maybe they think it'll be worth $2.5B and there's a 60% chance that it happens. They are private equity so they'd murder their mothers if it meant 1% more to the bottom line, so they make the Pohlads an offer. $1.9B. That's more than the current "valuation" of $1.7B, but less than the real prize of $2.3B if things go well in with the CBA. What's better? A 100% chance of getting $1.9B, or a 50% chance of getting $2.3B And if you're Varde Partners, what's you max number? Everybody's got a number that will make them say yes. It's just about finding that number.
  3. Whammy
    I'm curious what ways you plan to spend $23M more wisely in 2027 than a starting catcher who has an 800 OPS
  4. Whammy
    If Logan Gilbert is worth Erod+Quick+Ross, then I'm trading Joe Ryan yesterday.
  5. Whammy
    I view this as "there's always a price" I'm sure the the Pohlads view hanging onto the Twins until after a new CBA as a smart financial decision, but if someone came along tomorrow and offered 2.5 Billion, then all this "we're in this for the long term" talk goes out the window, which is totally understandable.
  6. Whammy
    Being owned by individuals who made their money in private investment firms is way different than being owned by a private investment firm.
  7. Whammy
    I see Larnach the way you do. I just don't see how you get him regular playing time with all of the young guys who need roster spots and playing time. He had a perfectly fine 2025, but not good enough to push away playing time for the young guys. I think he's movable in a low wattage trade, but I really want that to be before we would have to offer arbitration. If we don't get an offer, by the arbitration deadline, then I'd just non-tender him and move on. The problem i have with them hanging onto Lewis is different. I do think, if used correctly, that he could be a valuable member of some team's 26 man roster (including the Twins). But, I just don't at all trust the Twins to use him correctly. There's too much history. I'd be shopping him in November and I DO think we'll get some offers, especially given his second additional year of team control. Different than Larnach though, if I get to the deadline and haven't gotten an offer appealing enough, I definitely offer him arbitration.
  8. Whammy
    I know beggars can't be choosers but I'd rather a "Global Investment Firm" not be the owners of the Twins.
  9. Whammy
    Two things. First, I hate Keaschall at 1B. I think he'd be terrible there. Second, I totally agree that the "first baseman must be a power hitter" is an outdated concept. And I think the Twins have shown over the last 5 years that they agree. They'd much rather move an infielder to 1B and have above average defense from them instead of moving a lumbering corner OF to 1B and hope he survives. They view 1B as an infielder that needs infielder skills. Not a place to dump a guy who's not fast enough to cover ground in the OF. I think it's time to move on from Lewis, but I do think with another year at 1B he could be an elite defender there. I just don't view Keaschall as having infielder skills and instincts and I think putting him at 1B would be a mistake. He was statistically a neutral defender in RF by the end of the year. With some reps I think he'll be totally fine in a corner OF spot.
  10. Whammy
    I bet the process by which teams get compensated for losing players in free agency will likely remain in some form. I wouldn't be surprised at all if loss of a draft pick by the signing team goes away though.
  11. Whammy
    Counterpoint: Some people are probably over-rating what one year of Joe Ryan is worth and the number of teams that it would really make sense to acquire him
  12. Whammy
    100+ is average or better. Clemens, Bell, and Lee were above 100 and therefore above average offensively
  13. Whammy
    I don't agree with including Caratini's buyout in this spreadsheet. I understand that if it happens it will be a fiscal year 2027 expense but, a) He could get traded b) while it seems likely that the buyout will happen, we don't know that yet.
  14. Whammy
    I don't think his $6M is moving the needle of budget cutting, but if you took on Merrill Kelly's underwater contract (1/20M remaining), they might listen. Or make Tom Pohlad swallow real hard and take on that Burnes contract. There's some upside with that at least, but about 4/130 remaining.
  15. Whammy
    That feels like an argument for when a player has multiple years of control left. We’re kind of down to three options (trade him in the offseason, trade him at the deadline, and let him walk) and even though I agree with you that his trade value isn’t as high as it may have been before, what we’d get for him now is almost certainly more than what a team would pay for 2 months of Joe Ryan at the trade deadline. I’m not antsy to trade Joe Ryan this offseason, but it seems to me like it’s probably a good (and tough) choice. I’m also not opposed to keeping him, giving him the QO after 2027 and getting a draft pick, but that assumes that there will be a QO type system in place. And I would want that strategy to be part of a larger plan to not have so many of our SP have their contracts expiring after next season.
  16. Whammy
    I view including Caratini in this as a positive for the Twins. Swapping Catchers give the Twins the slightly better player (IMO) and gives us a guy who is signed through 2028, which feels like it works with the Lackey timeline.
  17. Whammy
    The Mets have Francisco Alvarez as their primary catcher, under team control for 3 more years Joe Ryan and Victor Caratini for Luis Torrens and Jonathan Santucci (SP - Mets #2 prospect but not in the top 100)
  18. Whammy
    What does Michael Busch give us that 2026 Kody Clemens didn't provide? I'd rather have Luis Torrens from the Mets than Busch from the Cubs.... assuming Jeffers isn't back
  19. Whammy
    I think that's probably true for guys who still have 1 year or less of service time, but guys like Taj are far enough along that I doubt they will see a benefit from new CBA language around service time.
  20. Whammy
    Prielipp - If you're Connor you finally had a mostly healthy year. The Twins have you under control for 6 more years, the first 3 of which you'll be making around the league minimum. You know your injury history and that 1.8M signing bonus you got in 2022 was nice, but it's probably mostly gone. How's my arm going to hold up? I need some guaranteed money. If you're the Twins. Yay! He was finally healthy and pitched.... pretty well. He showed flashes. He also showed some flushes. I'm not too interested in guaranteeing this guy too much money with his injury history, but his upside is pretty undeniable. Let's give him some reasonable money, but also set ourselves up for some upside if things click for Connor and he stays relatively healthy. What about something like 5/22 + Team Options in years 6-8 - With years like: 2027 - 1M+2M signing bonus, 2028 - 4M 2029 - 4M 2030 - 5M 2031 - 6M 2032 - 8M Team Option (would be his last year of team control) 2033 - 12M Team Option 2034 - 18M Team Option From the Twins perspective that maybe feels a touch generous, but it seems like something Prielipp could say yes to and having those options at the end give the Twins some upside to pair with the risk.
  21. Whammy
    So with those motivations in mind, what seems reasonable to me for some of the guys listed in the article? Taj - If you're Taj, you're not making TOO much money yet (maybe... 4M next year?). and it's been a long time since your draft signing bonus (750k in 2018). You've earned 3-4M over your baseball career so far, and the position you play often has career altering injuries. Getting some guaranteed money and a big upfront check probably sounds pretty nice, especially with the unknown of the lockout. If you're the Twins, you've seen flashes of brilliance, some injuries, but nothing too bad. Taj is certainly in your medium term plans at least, with his 3 years of team control remaining and he's the best performing pitcher on your roster that has control beyond 2027. If Taj continues on his 50th percentile path (injury free), he could expect to make something like 4M, 9M, 14M ($27M total) over the next three years and maybe $20M per year in free agency. So what's a number that both sides probably feel ok about? What about something like 4/38 + Team Option in year 5 - With years like: 2027 - 2M+5M signing bonus, 2028 - 8M 2029 - 10M 2030 - 13M 2031 - 20M Team Option
  22. Whammy
    I think it's important to acknowledge why each side might be considering a "pre-free agency" extension. I feel like most analysis of extensions ignores several of the motivations. Player motivations: 1) Up front money. Via either a signing bonus or higher annual salaries when they might be otherwise making the league minimum 2) Guaranteed money, which can mitigate poor future performance or can be injury insurance. Team motivations: 1) Cost certainty. It's easier to create a long term plan if you know how much money players on your roster are going to cost 3, 4, 5 years from now. 2) Long term money savings. Teams pay more early in the contract with the idea that what would be arbitration years, or free agent years don't cost as much 3) Additional years of team control. Having a player guaranteed to be on your team beyond the 6+ years of team control that the current CBA allows for. I know some of those sound obvious to say out loud, but they almost all play a part, and some of them often get ignored.
  23. Whammy
    I think the article would've benefitted from mentioning the uniqueness of this offseason (lockout / new CBA) as potential factors in the extension equation. 1) Will the unknowns of the lockout motivate young players to sign an extension that includes a signing bonus? For Example: Taj Bradley. Taj got a 750k signing bonus in 2018 and has been paid roughly 800k per season the last three years. That's nothing to sneeze at, but it's not "change your life" money yet, he probably doesn't have a TON of savings based on what he's earned so far, and he plays a very injury prone position. The flip side of that is Walker Jenkins. He got $7.1M just 3 years ago. Sure he's further from free agency, but he got that big signing bonus and he plays a less injury plagued position. I'm not saying he doesn't have ANY motivation to sign a big extension, but probably less motivation than Taj. Taj getting a $5M signing bonus as part of an extension, probably sounds pretty good heading into the unknown of the offseason and 2027. 2) Will a potential change in CBA related to service time and arbitration demotivate players from wanting to sign an extension? You can also flip that around and say, if the clubs think the new CBA will reduce the service time clock from 6 to 5 years, do the teams have MORE motivation than normal to get young players locked up for a year or two past their current free agency year? As a team, I'd rather be negotiating an extension under the current setup compared to what a new setup might be. It's might not change at all, but the service time clock certainly isn't getting LONGER than it is now.
  24. Whammy
    What if the new CBA shortens team control and disincentivizes players from signing guaranteed extensions?
  25. Whammy
    Bolted? Sure... but who's attached to this roster by silly string?
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