Whammy

In last Friday's Gleeman and the Geek episode (Patreon) they were discussing free agent bats and the question got asked.... Why are we viewing Jake Bauers any different than Ty France? It seems silly on the surface but they actually kind of struggled to give a good answer. Bauers is a one year pop-up (maybe 1.5 years). Former highly ranked prospect. Ty France also had a pop-up 2026. He put up similar numbers to Bauers but played better defense. He was also a former highly ranked prospect but also had a pretty good 2021 and 2022 France is only 1 year older than Bauers. So... why do we view them differently? If anything, with a blind "taste test" i suspect most people would pick France.

I just can't get over the fact that Bauers had a 3.3 WAR season in 2026, which raised his career WAR to +2.0. Lowe on the other hand has 5.4 WAR in 2026 which raised his career WAR to 23.1. Is Bauers no longer a negative WAR player? I don't know.... probably. But the one year pop-up players are terrifying to sign to big money, long term. I'll take the track record of Lowe I mean, look at this:

Well crap. Gaming the system sounded way more fun.

Seems like a good reason to trade that Comp A pick ASAP. I've got NO PROBLEM gaming that system :)

What's really telling from this exercise is that almost any version that is created by Twins Daily users or admins is a) really interesting from an on-the-field perspective, b) is exceedingly reasonable in terms of payroll, and c) would definitely drive some level of fan engagement. They are currently blessed with some inexpensive and marketable young players. If you pair that with some reasonable spending and a little bit of creativity, 2027 could be really interesting and succesful

The projections I've seen are in the 20-25 per season for 5-6 seasons. That seems reasonable It makes me think the 38M number within the tool is an error. Especially since if anything the other free agent numbers seem a little low.

For the record, I wouldn't be happy unless the payroll goes above 140. Maybe I'm setting myself up for unhappiness, but if we're not even getting within spitting distance of a couple years ago, then it's a half-measure.

I'd rather have Campusano than Kelly, to be honest. Even removing the part where Kelly would cost more and have a longer commitment.

I have the Twins trading for Campusano in my blueprint, so we're on the same page here. I just think that if I'm the Padres I'd rather pair Salas with Fermin (strong defensive C) than Campusano. From the Twins perspective, I'd rather have Campusano, but I also think it'll take more to get him (which I'm fine with). Really, I'd be fine with either, but I feel the need to make up for some of the lost Jeffers offense, by getting Campusano The DFA of Gomez seems unnecessary even if you're wildly down on his future.

I feel like you're way "over budget" here. Of course there's no rule against the Twins being at $160M. The Correa 10M isn't in here and your free agents are a decent amount below the suggested values within the tool (which I already think are a little too low). Love the aggressiveness though.

You don't trade Lackey because catchers don't age well and assuming Jeffers will be a regular catcher for more than 2 more years is probably a bad assumption. This is, of course, the exact reason why signing Jeffers to a 4/85 contract (which is what I think JBK has here) is a bad idea. Could Jeffers still play catcher some and slide over to 1B once Lackey is ready? Yeah, probably.

I just want two really good bullpen guys added, for a 2027 outlay of 20-25M. I'm not picky who that is.

I think I'm probably just not going to agree with any of these that have us signing Arraez, which is fine. Personally, I'd rather spend that money on an elite reliever.

Love that bullpen. In your scenario, given that you're under budget (not by the full 10% it says though), I'd wait out the Alec Bohm market and see if I can get him on a cheap "prove it" deal. That would make me feel a little better about your lineup. I do agree that the lineup is just going to have to be a leap of faith with a bunch of the young guys. I'm ok with that as long as we can look at our rotation and bullpen and see a real strength (which it is, in your blueprint)

I'm not convinced Ober would be good in the bullpen, but I also think it's possible I'm completely wrong. I like keeping him around as veteran depth to account for Abel and Lopez coming back from injuries and any possible injuries that pop up before the season. If we make it to opening day with those guys looking good, then he can be moved to the bullpen.

In years past wasn't that a variable the user had the ability to edit?

I don't believe this automatically generated post includes Correa's 10M. My total should be about $137M, but this is showing $127M Edit: I cleaned up the original post with the correct numbers

Something isn't lining up with total salaries. As I was building out my plan I was at ~137M, which was slightly over budget, but in the automatically generated post, it says I'm 5.52% under budget. I'm guessing it didn't include the Correa 10M dead money

I'm using the suggested contract values within the tool, which I think are probably a bit low. Signing Abreu and Vesia to the bullpen Signing Brandon Lowe Trading Joe Ryan to the Padres for Luis Campusano and a pitching prospect. Trading Caratini - $4m in dead money Zebby as SP6 I'm assuming Larnach and Ober will not be offered arbitration I'm offering arbitration to Lewis, but my assumption is that I will trade him. If I can't trade him then he replaces Martin on the bench I'm open to Ober coming back at 5M as depth and penciled in as SP5 (Bumping Abel temporarily) I could also go with Alec Bohm instead of Lowe, which frees up money to have Ober as depth and Lewis on the bench, for about the same total salary total. C: Luis Campusano ($4.00M) 1B: Kody Clemens ($3.60M) 2B: Brandon Lowe ($21.00M) 3B: Brooks Lee ($1.00M) SS: Kaelen Culpepper ($1.00M) LF: Luke Keaschall ($1.00M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Walker Jenkins ($1.00M) DH: Emmanuel Rodriguez ($1.00M) 4th OF: Alan Roden ($1.00M) Utility: Austin Martin ($1.00M) Utility: Ryan Kreidler ($1.00M) Backup C: Alex Jackson ($2.00M) POS: Caratini and Correa Dead Money ($14.00M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.50M) SP2: Taj Bradley ($4.50M) SP3: Dean Kremer ($6.50M) SP4: Connor Preilipp ($1.00M) SP5: Mick Abel ($1.00M) RP: Jeff Hoffman ($7.25M) RP: Bryan Abreu ($12.00M) RP: Alex Vesia ($11.00M) RP: Tommy Nance ($1.20M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($1.00M) RP: Kendry Rojas ($1.00M) RP: Andrew Morris ($1.00M) RP: Yoendrys Gomez ($1.00M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 1.89% over budget (137.5M Total)

It seems rather silly to not have Yoendrys Gomez as one of the default 8 RP in the tool.

Based on what?

Sort of related, I'd wait out the Alec Bohm market. He's not going to excite anyone, but he'd be a good platoon pair with Clemens at 1B and some pinch hitability. Clemens could slide to 2B on days you wanted to play both. Bohm could also spell Lee occasionally at 3B. Even in what was a down year for him in 2026, he had over an 800 OPS against lefties. I think eventually you could get him for about what Josh Bell got and he obviously provides more flexibility than Bell.

1. There are people here that only read the articles? 95% of why I'm here is for the comments. The articles to me are just a conversation starter. 2. I agree, but I sympathize with the writers. It seems like the moment they get specific, there's a faction of commenters that tell them why it's unrealistic or a dumb idea. Those same commenters never seem to summon the courage to actually tell us the specifics of what THEY would do. 3. I disagree with you here. There we multiple playoff teams wanting to trade for Jeffers at the deadline. In my opinion, the bat plays up far more than the defense plays down.

- Twins trade for either Campusano or Fermin from the Padres, or Wong from the Red Sox - Twins sign two or more contract extensions for existing players - Twins commit over $12M of 2027 money to free agent relief pitchers

Care to share any of your predictions?