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Whammy

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Everything posted by Whammy

  1. How much money does someone need before they say no to low 6 figures of dollars for a day of work?
  2. I'm firmly on the "Give Jeffers the QO" bandwagon, but I do think the value of the, say, 35th overall pick is a bit overstated. We've actually had some pretty good luck drafting in that range (shown below) the last few years, but I feel like a prospect at the bottom of the top 100 has a lot more value than a Compensatory A pick. Having a Comp A pick turn into a Top 100 prospect feels like about an 80th percentile outcome. I still say keep him and give him the QO, but I don't think the value of what me might get in trade versus what we might get as a comp pick are as close as people are assuming. 2021 to 2025 Picks 30-40: Riley Quick Kyle DeBarge Charlee Soto Noah Miller Picks 41-70: Quentin Young Billy Amick Dasan Hill Luke Keaschall Connor Prielipp Tanner Schobel Steven Hajjar
  3. The win last night was obviously fantastic, but the way it went down (9th inning comeback) has some tangible benefits that linger into today (or perhaps tomorrow). If we had gotten a ho-hum 3-2 win, we most likely would've used our best relievers to secure the win. Depending on how many pitches they threw, they might not be available today and certainly if they were used again today, they wouldn't be available tomorrow. And beyond that, the Royals DID use all of their best relievers. Not only did our hitters get a chance to take AB against them, they are now less available the rest of the series. This feels like something that has happened the opposite direction a decent amount to the Twins the last few years. Blow the first game of a series and have it linger throughout the series.
  4. Worth noting that the Royals were 7-3 in their last 10 coming into tonight.
  5. I think the mistake Twins fans might be making is believing that the White Sox will act in the same way that we think the Twins would act in a similar situation.
  6. I'm not going to claim to have any idea what players/agents are going to do this go around, but the last time there was an expiring CBA there were a TON of free agents that signed before the CBA expired.
  7. My gut. Just reading the tea leaves of Ownership shifts. They've been a sleeping giant over the last handful of years. As of 5 months ago, that sleeping giant still felt a couple years away, but I expect them to look at this division and the AL in 2026 and say... why not now? They have the financial resources to make bolder and riskier decisions than the Twins. And I expect to see a few this week.
  8. One thing that I've learned about you over the last couple days is that you're a BIG Luis Arraez guy.
  9. I disagree with you that the White Sox are unlikely to spend much to improve at the deadline. I expect them to be the most active AL team.
  10. I'm generally against trading Jeffers, but the way it would probably work is more of a de facto 3 team trade. We trade Jeffers for prospects. We also trade prospects for Relief help. It's unlikely that it would be the same prospects, but it could be that the two groups of prospects changing hands have roughly the same value. True 3 team trades are just very rare.
  11. I'm pretty on record as being against trading Jeffers and attempting to secure him in 2027 via the QO, but much like no prospects ever being "untouchable" (there's always a price), no player on the Twins is untouchable. So, yeah, if the Yankees (or any teams) want to make what I view as an overpay for 2 months of Jeffers, then I'm open to the idea, the same way I looked at the Duran and Jax trades last year (I know... different situation) and thought "Yeah... for those prospects I guess I'm ok with it." But I'm not out there LOOKING for a Jeffers deal. I'm letting teams come to me with an offer than I'm going to have a tough time saying no to.
  12. Fangraphs currently has us at 21% to win our division. If the playoffs started today, the White Sox would have a first round bye. I think the 30% odds you talk about, under normal circumstances, might not push the FO into being buyers, but for not only the franchise-level reasons you mention, but the unique circumstances of the 2026 American League, it's worth investing a little more than normal on a 30% playoff odds team. I mean Fangraphs has us at 10% odds to get a first round bye.
  13. I think we're just going to have to come to an agreement that: a) you think people dreaming on a 30% playoff chance and their "anything can happen" attitudes are crazy b) we think you telling us all the reasons why we wont win the world series and using that as justification for not trying for a playoff push is crazy
  14. Because some of us view the cost of those minor roster changes as trivial compared to the opportunity, no matter how low those odds might be. By the way... the twins are 3 games out of 1st round bye position and have ~10% chance of getting a first round bye according to Fangrpahs
  15. Haven’t you heard? We might have to play the Dodgers (or equivalent) if we get to the World Series, so we’ve decided it’s not worth trying to get there. Time to start building for 2028.
  16. The same Twitter user pointed out that with the Rockies going into their overage this year (for the first time), there is just now just one team that has never done it… The Twins
  17. I’m open to any deal that improves the team. I’m not going to claim to know how much he would improve the team this year and beyond, but adding “name” players who are currently struggling with the idea that you can bring back the good old days, always seems like an uphill battle. It seems like Seattle knows that his contract is flirting with being underwater, given what he’s still owed, so either it wouldn’t take a ton of prospect capital to add him, or you’d be getting the Mariners to eat a good chunk of money.
  18. Well, my boss is a Yankees fan, so it’s a daily internal battle.
  19. Sometimes people lose sight of the most obvious answer.
  20. No idea. Just a random thought I had about 2 severely depressed assets. I suspect on Yankees Daily you’d get a bunch of people saying that the Yankees would say no (although they really do hate Volpe)
  21. Legitimate question that I don’t know the answer to… Volpe for Royce Lewis… which team says no
  22. I totally understand the Twins Daily cycle of writing an article, it getting edited, then get scheduled for publication, but I still can't help but chuckle at the timing of this article's release.
  23. I'm ok taking a flyer on Volpe, but not as part of a deal that involves anyone on the 26 man roster, unless they've got a weird thing for Kody Funderburk 🙃
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