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Whammy

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Everything posted by Whammy

  1. Whammy
    I think it depends on the year. We can certainly make do in 2027 with Zebby in the bullpen, but with where things sit right now, we might really need him to eat innings in 2028.
  2. Whammy
    I removed the "qualified" filter from your fangraphs link and just sorted by WAR. There were (48) players who had an fWAR of 1.0 or higher. The 100th most valuable RP in 2026 was Taylor Clarke (Diamondbacks) who had a 0.5 fWAR (Eric Orze was 96th 🤮 ) Tommy Nance was 177th. If instead I sort by xFIP (and apply a 30IP minimum), then Jeff Hoffman is 14th and Tommy Nance is 34th What does this tell us? No idea. But probably at least something like RP small samples lead to funny results.
  3. Whammy
    I'm curious what happens if you bump that out to Top 100 (roughly 3 per team).
  4. Whammy
    I'd rather wait out the Alex Bohm market. I'd much rather get the other Lowe, but that's far less realistic.
  5. Whammy
    I've always assumed that it was more (though not exclusively) about Falvey seeing value in trading relievers for desirable prospects more so that getting rid of relivers before they got expensive. Regardless of which side of that you believe is more correct, the Twins WERE shedding payroll at that point, whereas they are theoretically increasing payroll from 2026 to 2027. It's one thing to look at your roster with a bunch of holes to fill, $20M to spend, and decide resources can be used better than paying for relievers, but it's another thing to have $40M to spend (Yes, I'm assuming a payroll north of $140M), with big holes to fill in your bullpen, not a ton of other big holes, other than 1B, and then STILL not spend on the BP.
  6. Whammy
    I actually think we could have a really good bullpen if we stray from our normal methods and spend, let's say $25M, on free agents (that's 2027 salary - there would likely be some future year commitment as well) Bednar - 3/45 Vesia - 3/30 That gives us a bullpen of: Bednar Hoffman Vesia Morris Gomez Nance Funderburk Adams That's a total of about $38M in 2027 salary, which is obviously a departure from the Twins historic strategy of bullpen building, but when you have as many pre-arb guys on the hitting side as we do, splurging in other areas become possible. Then here are the guys with some injury questions, or some possible SP/RP conversions Banda Festa Rojas Raya Matthews I think Matthews and Rojas could very easily be top 5 bullpen guys and Banda was having a lot of success before his injury.
  7. Whammy
    Neither of them did it by signing free agents though
  8. Whammy
    Hoffman had a 173 ERA+ with the Twins and struck out 13.5 per 9 innings. Over his last 4 years his ERA+ is around 145 and has struck out 344 batters in 252 innings, good for 12.3 K/9, with a 3.17 ERA I'm sorry, but if you view that as "middle relief at best" then you just don't know ball.
  9. Whammy
    I almost never down-thumb posts, but this one is incredibly worthy of a downthumb.
  10. Whammy
    His first draft when he snagged Bailey Ober and his 10.9 career bWAR in the 12th round?
  11. Whammy
    Depth is one thing, but assuming they want to give Salas a run, it would be a net negative to have Salas and two other catchers earning Arb 2 money on the MLB roster (I don't know their Option years status). It's sort of like saying, there's no such thing as too much pitching depth, but in the real world, it's not an effective use of resources to have Prielipp and Abel pitching in the AAA rotation and Rojas on the "we don't want to fully commit to him being a reliver" path.
  12. Whammy
    The market inefficiency was not dudes with average fastballs that can become elite fastballs. The market inefficiency was identifying pitchers with desirable traits (and probably below average college coaching), and understanding the opportunity and strategy for increasing their velocity to league average, because at a league average velocity, those other traits would play up more than with their previously below average velocity.
  13. Whammy
    .... but if you start every AB with a strike, you're probably doing it wrong. You can't have the batters KNOWING that your first pitch is going to be in the zone.
  14. Whammy
    I would argue they actually HAVE been ahead of the curve with some of the pitchers they have found in the middle/late rounds. Tall College Righties, usually from lesser known schools that should be able to add some velocity Ober (12th - 2017) Funderburk (15th - 2018) Lawreyson (14th - 2019) Varland (15th - 2019) Adams (6th - 2021) Festa (13th - 2021) Paredes (18th - 2021) Morris (4th - 2022) Matthews (8th - 2022) Culpepper (13th - 2022) That's a lot of dudes who have pitched in the majors, who were drafted in rounds where the hit rate on playing in the majors is quite low.
  15. Whammy
    Keep on 40-man (34): --- Bold players are the next wave I'm willing to part with if needed --- Mick Abel Travis Adams Jack Anderson Anthony Banda Taj Bradley David Festa Kody Funderburk Yoendrys Gómez Jeff Hoffman Dean Kremer Pablo López Zebby Matthews Andrew Morris Tommy Nance Mike Paredes Connor Prielipp Marco Raya Kendry Rojas Joe Ryan Cole Sands Victor Caratini Kody Clemens Kaelen Culpepper Luke Keaschall Ryan Kreidler Brooks Lee Ben Ross Byron Buxton Gabriel Gonzalez Walker Jenkins Austin Martin Hendry Mendez Alan Roden Emmanuel Rodriguez Attempt to trade but keep on 40 man if you can't (1): Royce Lewis Attempt to trade and remove from 40 man if you can't (3): Bailey Ober Trevor Larnach Matt Wallner Free Agents, some of whom I'd have back, but for now are off the 40-man (4): AJ Minter Taylor Rogers Ryan Jeffers Josh Bell Remove from 40-man (4): Garrett Acton Eric Orze Tristan Gray Aaron Sabato
  16. Whammy
    I feel like I know most of what there is to know about rosters, options, arbitration, etc.... but I don't know the answer to this... Could we sign Banda. right now, to a $2.0M minor league deal? With the goal being, keep him off the 40-man roster until he's healthy in the middle of next season? If not, what rule prevents it?
  17. Whammy
    I feel like there is a 95% chance that either Kreidler or Ross are on the roster to start the season, specifically to be the backup at SS, 3B, and 2B. Ross has options, so he'd have to REALLY show something before the season to win that battle (or Kreidler could get injured). The 5% I'm leaving out there is for the possibility that we sign a higher caliber version of Kreidler, which I don't think is likely, but it IS possible.
  18. Whammy
    I think it's interesting that, given the proliferation of interleague play, we still differentiate between AL and NL leaders. I'm guilty of this as well, but we don't really do it in any other sports.
  19. Whammy
    That's quite a leap from someone not giving Tampa credit for Taj Bradley's success to "saying that Tampa isn't good"
  20. Whammy
    By that standard, the Twins signed and developed David Ortiz
  21. Whammy
    I'm all for improvement, but has the Twins drafting of pitchers been bad over the last 5-7 years? I feel like this is something that just gets said because we assume other teams are doing it so much better. And I'm sure there are examples of organizations that do a really good job of it, but drafting pitchers, keeping them healthy, and having them contribute to the MLB club is just really difficult.
  22. Whammy
    Somewhere along the way I got the impression that the Diamondbacks had a payroll issue. I could be wrong about that or it could have changed.
  23. Whammy
    Sooooo.... more than Wallner?
  24. Whammy
    I'd add Wallner as a sweetener 😜
  25. Whammy
    Perdomo for E-Rod and Houston. Who says no? God, that's terrifying but 5 WAR players don't grow on trees and he's locked up at a reasonable price for 4 more years. Judging prospect values is tough but I'm willing to look silly here. I probably swallow hard and say yes to that.
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