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mshnd06

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  1. I'm done with Sano. I'd like to see if we could get any return on him
  2. This is me being a prisoner of the moment but I can't help but agree. I'm not sure Sano is salvageable and Buxton (although my favorite Twin of all time), will never reach his potential because of his inability to recognize pitches.
  3. I would break up the core too. Too mentally weak to be successful in the post-season (with a few exceptions). Some of those extensions might not look so good pretty soon.
  4. As an engineer, I appreciate being data-driven, but is that really what we're witnessing with Rocco? I feel like he thinks way too much and tries to get cute
  5. I don't think I've ever been more disappointed in the Twins. A roster that looks good on first glance and more abject failure. I don't believe in curses but there is a psychological impact of this streak. Such futility, so disspiriting. Granted I'm very much in the moment, but each of these post-season failures saps some of my hope going into the future.
  6. Those on your list? Mostly that they were can't miss. Those guys were all more highly regarded than Lewis or Kiriloff or the others
  7. The guys you've mentioned are of a higher caliber than our young guys. And Rosario, Gonzales and Cave aren't going to net you much in a trade. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, but a lot of these guys (Lewis for example) aren't close to ready.
  8. A poor one. Infield defense is a very real problem for this team. Any evidence to suggest that we are going to use that saved money for a pitcher? We're out of reasonable options on the FA market. The only thing that money might be used on now is eating Price's salary
  9. Improved AL Central, no juiced balls, plenty of regression candidates, status quo with roster. I'm beginning to think that without impact player acquisitions, last year may prove to be the outlier. Sure we can hope for help from the farm, but that's tenuous reassurance. I like the front office's hiring of Rocco, etc... but on the player acquisition front they're net neutral for me - positives for Cruz and Odo, negatives for losing Pressly and Escobar. It's difficult for me to see the confidence in the FO in this area as more than mere optimism. I just think we don't have enough data yet.
  10. How are sports salaries anything like the real estate market or the sports card market? Have salaries ever declined? You can complain about how high they are but that won't win you a world series. If your professed goal is a world series you're likely going to have to play in that allegedly bloated market
  11. It's not idiocy money if that's the market rate for pitching. There's no evidence that an Indians type rotation is just sitting in our farm system. I hope I'm wrong, but that's pinning a lot on the assumption of an absurdly positive conversion rate of prospects into productive major leaguers. This is a window, if we're waiting for a bigger window, we're just going to be disappointed. We're never going to have a 15-20% chance at a world series. I see nothing to suggest that the "bad money saved" will be used to spend on a Cole or Strasburg in the future. In my mind, to win a title in this market you have to take bigger risks and that means spending more money than you're comfortable with on a Ryu or Bumgarner and accepting that it very well might blow up in your face. I doubt we're getting a sure thing, I doubt a high fraction of our prospects turn into stars and I doubt the current core and the Kiriloff/Lewis/etc "core" will overlap to sufficient efficacy to substantially increase our odds of a title. What you're advocating is entirely too conservative to my mind and you seem to be pinning an inordinate amount of faith on a front office that has put together one great season by taking advantage of a down AL central
  12. That's fair and I apologize. I like to use exercises like this because I am interested to see how other people will interpret the statistics. Ryu is E. For Pineda, I omitted 2018 because of the TJ and included 2016 instead. I definitely should have mentioned that. The same concerns that are valid for Ryu are also valid for Pineda. Has Pineda ever been an above league average pitcher for a sustained sample size? Pineda is C and is clearly weaker in my mind. Odorizzi is B. Before last year, Odorizzi was decidedly average. He, MadBum and Pineda are all the same age. Why is it impossible for MadBum to bounce back yet we are counting on Odorizzi and Pineda to demonstrate sustained success for the first times in their careers at the same age? MadBum is A as was correctly guessed. Personally, I would rather have that stat line than B or C. I also think there is something to be said for postseason experience that can't be quantified. Berrios is D and is a stud. The other point I'd like to make is Berrios, Odorizzi and Pineda is all well and good but that's assuming they're all healthy and available.. I really would like to have at least four established starters for contingency purposes in the playoffs. For me I'd go Ryu, Berrios, MadBum, Odo, Pineda
  13. Ryu is an injury risk, I get it, no one is arguing that he's not, but if you get a couple of healthy years out of him you're in good shape - he's been nothing but a stud when healthy. Sometimes you have to take risks. MadBum has a lot of innings on his arm but his demise is greatly exaggerated. His 2019 was weaker and the stats bear out a slow decline but you make it sound like he hasn't done anything since his age 26 season and that just isn't true. The following are ERA+, FIP, and WHIP for five pitchers over the last three years. Pitcher A 128 3.95 1.09 116 3.99 1.24 107 3.90 1.13 Pitcher B 102 5.43 1.24 95 4.19 1.35 131 3.36 1.21 Pitcher C 89 3.79 1.35 103 4.66 1.29 113 4.02 1.16 Pitcher D 114 3.84 1.23 111 3.90 1.14 124 3.85 1.22 Pitcher E* 110 4.74 1.37 198 3.00 1.01 179 3.10 1.01 Who would you rather have? You're not wrong to say that Berrios belongs at the top of the rotation but if you legitimately think Odorizzi and Pineda are at least as good as MadBum and Ryu, in my opinion you're viewing life through 2019-colored glasses at the expense of the bigger picture
  14. I can't say that MadBum or Ryu is unequivocally better than Berrios and Odorizzi, but Ryu was second in the Cy Young voting and Mad Bum has won in the playoffs. I'd say they represent at least marginal improvement over the latter two and significant improvement over Gibson who they would be replacing.
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