A Radically Different Deadline Approach Has Led to the Same August Results for the Minnesota Twins

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett, David Frerker-Imagn Images

Last year, the Twins stumbled into the month of August, dropping four of their last five in July to fall six games below .500 and spur an unprecedented deadline sell-off. In what would prove to be Derek Falvey's final big swing at the helm, Minnesota's front office traded away 10 major-league players. The outgoing wave included their three best relievers in Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax and Louis Varland, and one of their top-three position players in Carlos Correa. What remained was an ill-suited starting shortstop in Brooks Lee and a bullpen full of marginal (at best) MLB talent.

The ensuing result was predictably very bad. Through August 27th, they were 9-16, a .360 winning percentage. Their decimated bullpen ranked 19th among MLB teams in fWAR, while their rotation ranked 18th and their offense ranked 21st. 

This year, August started on a very different note for the Twins. They won seven of their last nine games in July, bouncing back from a post-break slump, and by the time the trade deadline arrived, they had emphatically emerged as buyers. They traded one of their top pitching prospects for Jeff Hoffman, after also shipping out noteworthy prospects for reliever A.J. Minter and starter Dean Kremer.

Following Tom Pohlad's edict, first-year baseball ops leader Jeremy Zoll invested in his roster, in an effort to bolster the club's chances in August and September as they competed for a playoff spot. And in response to that investment, through August 27th, this year's Twins have gone ... 8-15, good for a .348 winning percentage that is slightly worse than 2025 through this date. The revamped bullpen has been modestly better (15th), albeit with a far worse Win Probability Added, while the rotation and offense have both been middle-of-the-pack.

Just as expectations played to Shelton's favor in the first half of the season, they now work against him relative to where Rocco Baldelli stood one year ago. Last August, people were commending the Twins for playing free and easy, absent the weight of contention status and urgency. Now the current team is collapsing under pressure, struggling across all phases, with poor play accompanied by questionable decision-making from both Shelton and Zoll's front office.

The difference is that the ending of this year's story remains unwritten. We know where it went from here last season: from August 28th onward the Twins went 10-19 to end up in fourth place with 92 losses. There's still time for the Twins to turn the ship around and at least make things interesting. Their remaining schedule is favorable. Walker Jenkins is on his way and Joe Ryan is hopefully not far behind.

But in order to avoid irrelevance by mid-September, an outcome that would cast huge scrutiny on their decision to parse out future assets for short-term help three weeks ago, these beefed-up Twins need to show they are better than the dismantled, resigned team that marched to the finish line a year ago. So far, they haven't proven it in the least.

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[Glorybound]

Comparing the last two seasons is really silly. Some of the bonehead decisions from last year are being lived out this year aka Varland trade. Example of this is Andrew Morris being used as a set up reliever. While he has had a good season as a whole his best use still may be a starter. The hole they dug last year will not be fixed in a single season.

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

Hey, that's baseball. I approved of the deadline trades that the Twins made. I only regret that we didn't get rid of Larnach at the deadline. Never a sure thing how this stuff will work out. You always have to factor in injuries and lackluster performance by some of the regulars too. That said. we still have about 5 weeks left to play and good things still COULD happen. I'm not giving up yet. 

[Whitey333]

Twins are funner to watch this year but still not a very good team.  Lots of holes to filled.  Still hard to understand their philosophy.  Pohlad gloating about adding 8 million to payroll lands flat when you consider it was reduced by nearly 60 million the past year and a half.  The players added at the deadline are marginal at best and certainly not better than the players we traded away last year.

[SarasotaBill]

Delusional owner and in-experienced GM is not a good combination.

Twins are a below 500 team and should have traded their expiring assets (Jeffers, Larnach, ...).

The reality is that there will be a CBA lockout next year. 

So Twins are compounding their mistakes this year into next year.

[saviking]

So we most likely still won't make the playoffs yet missed an opportunity to trade Jeffers, Rryan and larnach .. 

Guess they thought they were taking a calculated risk. Thisbtram isn't very good with a calculator. 

[TroyVang]

I hate to say this, but at least they tried. At least they didn't roll over or frustratingly stand pat. I hope this kind of goes like 2001, when they surprisingly traded for Detroit closer Todd Jones. The team was kind of good out of nowhere and made an acquisition to signal that. They didn't make the playoffs, but they did the next three years and six out the next ten. I hope that is what we're seeing here, fingers crossed.

[MeleMouth]

26 minutes ago, SarasotaBill said:

Delusional owner and in-experienced GM is not a good combination.

Twins are a below 500 team and should have traded their expiring assets (Jeffers, Larnach, ...).

The reality is that there will be a CBA lockout next year. 

So Twins are compounding their mistakes this year into next year.

Agree completely. Would add that they are compounding their mistakes last year into this year, like they compounded their mistakes in 2023 into 2024, and their mistakes of 2024 into 2025.

[Hrbeks Divot]

The moves they made weren’t swing for the fences. It was a moderate investment to see if this team could make a push. I’m less concerned about the deadline acquisitions than their reasoning behind playing a clearly injured Buxton and letting Larnach struggle for so long. Emma is going to be on the roster next year. He should have been up two weeks ago taking away so of Larnach’s reps to see what we’ve really got with him. Larnach definitely should have been traded. Jeffers likely should have been traded but I can hear arguments either way. I was fine with hanging on to Ryan until the offseason. This is when we’ll see if Pohlad and Zoll are really that much different from the previous faces of leadership.

[Hubie29]

They did what they do all year every year. Add marginal or players that aren't difference makers. They had to add alot more than Hoffman if they wanted to show they were serious about contending. How about adding some meaningful bats or a top 3 of the rotation guy. This pitching staff isn't going to get you anywhere. They aren't even good enough to back into the playoffs with a .500 record. Sub .500 is a failed season. 

[Eris]

Realistically, the Twins have only Ryan Jeffers (and Culpepper maybe) who are above average both offensively and defensively. They have one of the worst defensives in all of MLB. This is not a championship team. What it takes to be a championship team. They need 3 or 4 players who can contribute better than 4 WAR a season. On the current roster only a healthy Buxton could play at that level. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I believe that the trades were made to maintain fan interest/attendance rather than with an expectation that this team would be competitive in the postseason. 
 

While much has been made on TD about last year’s trade deadline, they did not address the fundamental weaknesses of the team which were/are about 5 or 6 players whose best position was DH. 

[mike8791]

Agree.  Half measures never work - and that's what they did at this year's trade deadline. While some might applaud their additions, in reality it seems the FO was influenced by TP's foolish pronouncement that the Twins would contend in 2026, hence Zoll's trades for 2 relievers who were upgrades, but really did nothing for building a contender in the ensuing years.  Ditto with addition of a marginal #5 starter.

Either the Twins should have been more proactive in adding to a very shaky rotation by bringing in someone like Gausman and/or Griffin and an established corner OFer to add more thump to an over-achieving lineup(with an unrealistically high RISP average) or build for the future by trading guys like Jeffers, Larnach, Ober and even Ryan - none of whom were likely to be part of a real contender.

Instead,  they improved a pen that was built on smoke and mirrors(did they really expect Gomez and Morris to lead a bullpen in the heat of a pennant race) in a feeble attempt to stay in the hunt.  This is just not a long term strategy for success.  Now events have forced them into promoting KC and Jenkins after falling out of contention.  Count me a huge sceptic that this ownership/FO can ever succeed in building a winner.

[bean5302]

Must be a desperate Twins fan thing to consider this year's deadline a "radically different deadline approach." The Twins traded one prospect at the back of their top 10 and took on like $5MM in salary.

The team added a near DFA candidate pitcher and a couple good relievers.

I can't imagine the superlatives if the Twins actually made a big trade at the deadline some day.

"Twins exploded the entire history of the game by trading for a major asset. Never in the history of sports has a team ever traded a top 5 prospect for a middle rotation starter. The Twins are all in, ALLLLLLLL in and have sold the farm, they're all in, it's the end of the universe <#5 prospect> was going to win the next 12 MVPs in a row."

[old nurse]

Hot streak, cold streak That has been the MO of the half dozen hovering around .500 teams in the AL  All of the teams have briefly played well enough to lead the AL West or hold the last wild card spot for a brief while. Will the Twins get another hot streak or collapse. In this season who knows. 

[Riverbrian]

I've seen teams sell at the deadline and get a lot better

I've seen teams buy at the deadline and get a lot worse. 

I've seen teams sell and I've seen teams buy with only slight improvement or slight decline basically status quo. 

I've seen teams buy and take off like a rocket and I've seen teams sell and sink like a stone. 

I'm currently watching the Brewers lead all teams in winning percentage while being 30th out of 30 teams in home runs and 19th in payroll. 

I've seen our Twins sweep a 74-50 Braves team and I've seen the Braves sweep the Dodgers one week later. 

In 2026... The Dodgers with the deepest most expensive starting staff in the history of baseball winning just 16 more games than the Twins have over 134 games. That is one more win every 8 games. 

This is just typical baseball and it has been every single season without fail. 

Bottom Line: We needed bullpen help and we got some and Kramer has thus far been a decent addition. The team was 28th in team ERA with injuries throughout the starting staff. The bullpen is deeper now and it needed to be deeper. Only to watch the offense fall from the 5th most runs scored to 25th most runs scored after the deadline. 

Sectors fall and sectors rise. Sometimes independent from each other and sometimes in unison. It's a roller coaster. Anybody can beat anybody on any given night. Baseball seasons have always been a roller coaster for all 30 teams. Enjoys the climbs and try not to scream too loud during the drops.  

It is up to the players now. 

 

[miller761]

FO gets high marks for their effort and results at the deadline. Added to the team in the areas that most needed help without giving up much. Plus 2 players are controllable. Not every team that adds at the deadline gets the results they are looking for. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

3 hours ago, Eris said:

Realistically, the Twins have only Ryan Jeffers (and Culpepper maybe) who are above average both offensively and defensively. They have one of the worst defensives in all of MLB. This is not a championship team. What it take to team. They need 3 or 4 players who can contribute better than 4 WAR a season. On the current roster only a healthy Buxton could play at that level. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I believe that the trades were made to maintain fan interest/attendance rather than with an expectation that this team would be competitive in the postseason. 
 

While much has been made on TD about last year’s trade deadline, they did address the fundamental weaknesses of the team which were about 5 or 6 players whose best position was DH. 

I think this is the most realistic take here. The Twins have a very average team in part because they don’t have a lot of above average players and essentially no elite players. Who on the Twins is an elite player at their position, meaning in the top 10 or 15%, which is the top 3 to 5 players in baseball at that position. Maybe you could argue Jeffers is that, but he is it and he’s probably leaving. If you expand it to very good players, those in the top 25% at their position or the top eight players, arguably Ryan is a top eight number 2 starter, but not a top eight number 1 starter.  Maybe Lopez is a top eight number 1 starter but probably not. He more falls into a good category of the top 35–40% of players at that position. That’s it. Nobody else. Injuries count. Buxton could be an elite centerfielder but only if he regularly played 140 a year. He doesn’t. He’s not elite.

That leaves us in the position of trying to win with the series of average to good players. Those kinds of teams tend to run hot and cold because average players tend to run hot and cold. They play well for a while, then they slump, hen  they play well for a while, etc. You can win that way, look at the Milwaukee Brewers, but you have to have a lot of depth with other at at least average guys to plug in for one in a slump. We don’t have that either.

So how do you fix this? Well, we could get ourselves two or three really elite players but we better keep them and they better be constantly elite. We have not had one of those for a while other than maybe Duran. An elite closer doesn’t do a whole lot of good unless you got a team that you consistently get leads. IMHO, the only real option here is to try to get a bunch of good to very good players and develop some depth with a bench of average players. That’s the Brewers model and h that's what all this trading was about, get a bunch of guys and hope that either you improve your depth significantly or that one of their two of them hits big. Same for guys from the Minors. Culpepper looks like he will improve our depth if nothing else. Jenkins should do that and both might hit big. We thought Lewis might be that guy who hits big, but sadly he’s not. Keaschall looks like he’s already in the good to very good category on the hitting side and he could  hit big. We have to find him a defensive home because he has to play and be an elite hitter for this team to be successful..

I think the FO is trying to develop depth and keep the very good to elite players we have. The execution of that strategy has been mixed at best, but I think they are on the right path. Were at least a year and maybe more away from knowing if any of this is going to work, but at least they’re trying something.

[DannySD]

The trades they made weren't the problem, they will mostly help next year. The problem is what they didn't do. No surprise that a team with 3 catchers, sketchy defense, and no bench versatililty is losing games late. 

[terrydactyls]

As I have posted nearly every day since July 1st:  the Twins need (now needed) to be sellers!!

[AceBee]

None of the approaches seems to be well thought out..

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

Agree completely. Would add that they are compounding their mistakes last year into this year, like they compounded their mistakes in 2023 into 2024, and their mistakes of 2024 into 2025.

It's like it's what they do.

[Woof Bronzer]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Must be a desperate Twins fan thing to consider this year's deadline a "radically different deadline approach." The Twins traded one prospect at the back of their top 10 and took on like $5MM in salary.

Obviously you didn't read the post.  It compared this deadline to last year, when they traded 10 MLB players. " Radically different" is very accurate.  

[90stwinskid]

2 hours ago, Eris said:

Realistically, the Twins have only Ryan Jeffers (and Culpepper maybe) who are above average both offensively and defensively. They have one of the worst defensives in all of MLB. This is not a championship team. What it takes to be a championship team. They need 3 or 4 players who can contribute better than 4 WAR a season. On the current roster only a healthy Buxton could play at that level. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I believe that the trades were made to maintain fan interest/attendance rather than with an expectation that this team would be competitive in the postseason. 
 

While much has been made on TD about last year’s trade deadline, they did not address the fundamental weaknesses of the team which were/are about 5 or 6 players whose best position was DH. 

Agreed. One could argue that the FO believed they were trying to give the team a chance by buying at the deadline. We can argue about whether that it was realistic that they would actually be competitive (I see arguments for and against), but I appreciate their willingness to mildly buy, especially with everything that's transpired the past 2 seasons. Flip a couple of bad individual performances (i.e. Keaschall and Morris), and our record could be a couple wins better. 

That said, this team still has glaring holes, and it was going to be difficult to fix those in the middle of the season (without mortgaging the future, at least).

[Blyleven2011]

24 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I think the FO is trying to develop death 

I would concur with this , the FO looks dead in the water most off seasons and doesn’t create and fill the real needs to be consistent …

[MinnInPa]

until they figure why in Gods name our Professional right handed batters just cant hit left handed pitching... this team will flounder around .500. teams could bring up a lefty from AA and shut us down

[TheLeviathan]

If this team fails to make the playoffs they'll have gambled on the 2026 team and lost the following:

*A hot catcher market and Ryan Jeffers healthy and available.  Even 50% of what the O's got for Adley Rutschman could've been a huge help to a future Twins team.  Instead we have gotten a .665 OPS from a player missing a quarter to a third of games as a catcher.

*A hot market for starting pitching with the last chance to get a premium value on Joe Ryan.  Instead we got a couple hideous starts and an IL trip.

*Trevor Larnach was at peak value.  Enough that one GM was going to trade a reliever who has been lights out for months.  Instead he's got a .553 OPS to go with his terrible defense.

* We won't know if any of the prospects we dealt will hurt in the long run, that's TBD.  The values weren't bad, but in a wasted effort anything they become only adds to the negatives.

*We could have sold on Josh Bell (whose been good in August, full credit to him), Gomez (who has gone pumpkin on us), or even Ober if there was a market.  Instead we got nothing.

*We could have called up Jenkins and Erod long before this on a roster with playing time to give.  Throw Wallner and Sabato on that list too if you want.

All of this in service to an investment in a bad team.  Casuals have not streamed in the gates of Target Field in appreciation of the deadline.  Only diehards feel thankful in this move and diehards are called diehards for a reason.  Each and every one of you who thinks that was a needle mover would tune in to Twins baseball tomorrow if they played Lew Ford at catcher.  Your loyalty is already achieved.  The lost assets above and missed opportunities won't come back and we will have worse than nothing to show for it....we'll also lack more resources to build around the core we might be calling up now too little, too late.

On goes the grind of mediocrity.  I hope those fleeting feelings of happiness were worth it.

[LyleCole]

As I had pointed out when the trades were made, there was nothing really wrong with the individual trades they made.  I actually like the Dean Kremer trade a lot getting a 4th starter type player with experience and one more year of reasonable team control for a low level minor league player.  The Minter rental was a reasonable acquisition to try to take a shot at the playoffs and he has performed very well, maybe enough the Twins could be in contention to retain him.  The Hoffman cost was the highest move, although it was reasonable.  He would be the only question mark but he might be a good person to have in the bullpen next season no matter what hte course.

But the real issue is that while these were BIG moves by Twins standard, they really were half way moves to try to just squeak into the playoffs either as the bottom wild card team or winning a very weak AL division.  To me you either commit to rebuild and trade away the assets you have at high value that cannot be part of your rebuild, or you commit to becoming a team that will field a payroll similar to other teams in the league.  Minnesota is tens of millions of dollars below median and average major league baseball payrolls.  That means they have lots of opportunity to sign free agents this offseason if they so choose.  

But I expect more of the same from ownership.  They will target the bottom of the playoff level as their goal and limit the signings to low cost players.

[GNess]

With the benefit of hindsight everybody can be good decision-makers. When the Twins made a few modest moves they were definitely in the race. But the team faltered in August nonetheless. 

In fact Kremer has pitched well. Minter and Hoffman have been less effective but not terrible.. The moves made didn't cause the losing record in August.

Kremer and Hoffman are under contract for 2027. 

Maybe they should have traded Ryan given his history of 2nd half failures which of course other MLB teams must be aware. Jeffers - maybe a decent return. Larnach - please.

If Larnach, Roden Martin, Gray ,were so called blocking / delaying the call ups of Culpepper, Rodriguez and Jenkins - that seems to be more suspect than the failure of trades made at the deadline.