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SarasotaBill

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  1. SarasotaBill
    Reyes ranked 12th among Minnesota prospects at Baseball America and 10th in the system according to Eric Longenhagen and James Fegan of FanGraphs. MLB Pipeline has slotted him 20th among O’s farmhands after the trade. He’s a left-handed hitting outfielder with a 6’3″ frame that leads to significant raw power projection. Reyes signed out of the Dominican Republic during the 2025 international period and has spent most of his time in the Florida Complex League, where he was hitting .275 with seven home runs. The Twins just promoted the 18-year-old to Low-A last week. He’s years away from the majors but has a chance to develop into a power-hitting right fielder. There’s a fair amount of risk with this profile given the likelihood he ends up in a corner and concern about how often he swings and misses. There’s substantial upside as well, though, with the FanGraphs report noting that Reyes has the kind of profile that would likely have seen him taken at the back of the first round if he were a domestic high school draftee. That’s a strong get for a fifth starter. What's worse: impatient fans, ego owner, or an inexperienced GM?
  2. SarasotaBill
    Ask yourself why have the Twins have made two trades in the past few days and no one else has done so. Twins are overpaying. Minter's cost was Amick (low average & contact) and a lottery ticket. Overpay for Minter but minimal trade cost. Reyes had a .950 ops (comparison Emma had .870) in Rookie League. Twins typically don't move 18 year olds up to A. Jenkins is the only other one that I know before doing so this year with Reyes. This move is a "I want to watch the Twins shoot for the playoffs this year" vs trying to set up the team for a world series run starting next year.
  3. SarasotaBill
    This is the desperate move of a owner wanting to be liked by the fans and an inexperienced GM getting fleeced. The Orioles are in the same boat as the Twins, they know the most about their starting pitcher and they traded him. Reyes is a top ten Twins prospect. Most don't include the rookie league in their rankings. Think of him as a late first round high school player. Reminds me of the Jake Cave - Luis Gil trade. Kremer at 7 million next year is a two month rental player. At the end of the season the Twins front office will be like the guy at the office party who drinks too much and has to see everyone the next day. Total regret. Next possible stupid move would be bringing up Jenkins and Culpepper so they can sit out during the lockout next year and use up one year of team control. The focus shouldn't be about 2026. It's about 2027 to 2032.
  4. SarasotaBill
    The new CBA will have term limits if the owners get their way. If the owners get their way then the team salary floor will be $170 million. No one can predict what will happen with the new CBA but that will be the best time to try to resign Ryan. The injury possibility is a concern so if you can get an elite arm then do it now but if not then wait for the new CBA.
  5. SarasotaBill
    You need at least two elite starting pitchers in the playoffs. Unless you trade Ryan for a Kade Anderson (elite pitching prospect) it doesn't make sense to trade him before the CBA contract is done. If the Twins can't extend him after the new CBA is finalized then trade him then.
  6. SarasotaBill
    If the Twins follow this strategy then they’re shooting themselves in the foot. There 8 teams chasing the last two wildcard slots. With the CBA expiring after this season and their top prospects coming up the next two years it would be stupid to be buyers this year. Sell your surplus (Larnach and Bell) and your pending free agent (Jeffers).
  7. SarasotaBill
    Don't get distracted by 2026. All decisions should be based on 2027 and after. Trade Jeffers, Larnach, and Bell. Keep Ryan and try to extend him.
  8. SarasotaBill
    Jeffers on the trade block with no refunds
  9. SarasotaBill
    Jenkins needs to stay at AA until next year. He needs to develop and can't afford to lose a big portion of next season as well.
  10. SarasotaBill
    What ever trade that the Twins do this year should be about 2027 and later. No trades for anything helping for 2026. You need to be selective about non-40 roster call ups in 2026 because of the pending strike/lock-out. Enjoy 2026 for development of your core players. Trade Jeffers, Larnach, and Bell. Try to extend Ryan. Only trade him if he brings back a top 10 prospect in MLB plus more. It has to be a lopsided deal.
  11. SarasotaBill
    The upcoming MLB -MLPA battle will influence everything. Do the owners cave after listing their demands? Do the players cave because there's more money just not more for the stars? If the owners finally stick to their guns, 2027 will probably be washed away. If the owners eventually win then the minimum team payroll will be over $170 million. 1. Try to extend Ryan. If not, trade him. 2. Try to resign Jeffers. If not, trade him. 3. Trade Larnach 4. Trade Bell 5. I would not bring up anyone not the 40 man already. There's going to be a strike to start next year and let the minor league players keep developing during the strike.
  12. SarasotaBill
    The possible 2027 MLB strike/lock-out is a strong possibility. Any player on the 40 man roster will be locked out. The Twins realistic aim should be 2028 and beyond. 2026 - transition from previous core and trading assets 2027 - development when and if MLB season starts (AAA during strike) 2028 - start of being a playoff contender. Culpepper, Jenkins, and anyone else not on the 40 man needs to demonstrate multiple months of dominating AAA before bringing them up in 2026. Especially Jenkins who has missed so many games and needs many ABs this year and next year.
  13. SarasotaBill
    It made absolutely no sense to pitch to Witt with a runner on 2nd and two outs in the ninth. The batter on deck is hitting 0.210. What is Shelton and his bench coach thinking about?
  14. SarasotaBill
    Rabe pitching tonight vs Auburn.
  15. SarasotaBill
    Lackey struggled hitting curveballs last weekend. I would pick Flora over him but I know that's not the consensus.
  16. SarasotaBill
    Wait two months and let's see the results. Ryan in the rotation eases the bullpen which affects the games he doesn't pitch. We will know a lot more in two months about the number of young players on the roster as well. Most likely he will be traded at the deadline when teams have a better idea if they have a chance to win the World Series.
  17. SarasotaBill
    Now there's no choice but to unload everything at the trade deadline. Use 1st half to increase value of anyone on their last year or next to last year. 2nd half is for development for players with more than two years before free agency.
  18. SarasotaBill
    Last year was his true season in five years. Of course the Twins took it easy with him. Let him build up some more this year and see where he's at.
  19. SarasotaBill
    Especially at Home start at SS and bat ninth. If it’s a scoring opportunity have Lee pinch hit him on his first at bat. If not, have him bat once and pinch hit after five innings. Maximize defensive value while minimizing his poor offense.
  20. SarasotaBill
    He's got two years left in his contract so there's no rush. Mid-season provides another 6 months of development that will give more insight into the future. Just too many questions about the young MLB Twins and the high end of prospects. Even a mid-season trade provides teams two playoff years.
  21. SarasotaBill
    Great article. Thank you for the insight. The comments seem that wins matter this year. Spoiler Alert - wins don't matter in 2025 for the Twins It's about development. Obvious Bradley needs more development and refinement. That's why the Twins are letting him pitch through these horrible outings.
  22. SarasotaBill
    Your idea is to bench Lee after one year in MLB, with no immediate replacements in the system, and with next year as a development year (spoiler alert: Twins are not contending for the playoffs next year). Even Buxton struggled is his first year in MLB. Let's use 2026 as a year to evaluate the development and potential of present players and players coming up from AAA. The bar should be: is the player developing (improving) and does he have the potential to be above average starter in the major leagues.
  23. SarasotaBill
    I count 32 of the present 42 probably protected. Probably need to protect 4-5 new minor league players and 3-4 free agent signings. They don't have the space to be care free with guys who will not be on the 40 man in November. It would be stupid to expose them to other team's 40 man roster for a weeks of MLB in September. Sorry - just trying to be realistic.
  24. SarasotaBill
    Unless the Twins already know the player will be on the 40 man roster in November, none should be recalled. If a player is taken off the 40 man then another team only needs to put the player on their 40 man roster. If a player is taken in the Rule 5 draft then that player needs to be on their 26 man roster for a year.
  25. SarasotaBill
    If nothing else, the Twins need to think of 2025-6 as development and evaluation. The payroll now allows extending Ryan and Jeffers. If they don't extend Jeffers during the off season then they have to trade him. Every transaction needs to be about 2027 and after.
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