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Posted
Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

When Derek Falvey was hired away from Cleveland, the expectation was clear: bring that organization's steady stream of arms to Minnesota. In Cleveland, pitching prospects seem to appear out of thin air, whether it’s a starter stepping in to cover a rotation spot or a reliever throwing 98 mph with a wipeout slider. Nearly a decade later, fans are still waiting to see if the same can happen in Minneapolis.

A Different Path to Development
Minnesota hasn’t replicated Cleveland’s high draft pedigree or international pitching dominance. Instead, the front office has adopted a unique approach: identifying unheralded college arms in the mid-to-late rounds, refining their mechanics, expanding their pitch mix, and emphasizing velocity gains.

It’s how Bailey Ober, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews all forced their way onto prospect lists and into major-league roles. But 2025 served as a harsh reminder of the risks. All three dealt with injuries this summer, and while velocity gains can elevate a pitcher’s ceiling, they also push arms closer to breaking down. The pipeline looked stocked in February. By September, it looked more fragile than fans had hoped.

The Current Rotation Picture
The Twins’ top three (Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Ober) were supposed to be the bedrock of the 2025 staff. Instead, injuries and inconsistency have raised questions about all three, with trade rumors swirling as the front office reassesses roster priorities. López and Ryan are set to be two of the highest-paid players on next year’s roster, and that could mean shopping them this winter in an attempt to further reduce payroll and amass even more young talent. 

Festa was one of the organization’s brightest pitching hopes, but a thoracic outlet syndrome diagnosis casts a long shadow over his career path. Initial reports are positive, in that it is the less devastating form of TOC, but it is still one of the worst diagnoses for a pitcher. Simeon Woods Richardson and Matthews both had chances, but were unable to seize rotation spots. They showed flashes, but flashes don’t win a division.

Other Reinforcements
At the trade deadline, the Twins went shopping for arms to fortify the future. Mick Abel and Taj Bradley both come with pedigree as former top-100 prospects, while Kendry Rojas offers intriguing upside. The Twins have talked very highly of him since he was acquired. 

Minnesota had other prospects who were expected to break through in the minors this year, but that did not happen. Andrew Morris, though slowed by injury, showed promise late in the season. Marco Raya flashed his potential, while Cory Lewis endured a season to forget. There is hope that these three can have a healthy winter and return in 2026 with something to prove. 

These young arms highlight a familiar theme: the Twins are still searching for their “pipeline identity.” Cleveland can rely on a constant churn of major-league-ready pitchers. Minnesota has to piece theirs together through trades, tweaks, and patience.

The 2026 Pitching Pipeline: Tiers of Hope
Instead of a single clear pipeline, Minnesota’s future appears more like a layered system of possibilities.

Projected Opening Day Options

  • López, Ryan, Ober – All three could anchor the rotation if healthy and not traded, but each carries questions about durability or performance.
  • Bradley, Woods Richardson – The former trade acquisitions will push for full-time roles, especially with their big-league experience over the last two seasons. Bradley has frontline upside if he clicks, while Woods Richardson needs to sharpen his command.

Next Wave of Starters

  • Abel, Matthews – Both showed flashes in 2025, but need consistency. Each could profile as a back-end starter or a dominant relief option.
  • Raya, Morris, and Rojas – Young arms with enough stuff to break through in 2026. If the frontline group falters, these pitchers may get opportunities.

Wild Cards

  • Festa – Everything hinges on how he recovers from thoracic outlet syndrome. If he avoids surgery and bounces back, he could still be a long-term piece.
  • Lewis – After a rough year, he’ll need a strong rebound to reestablish himself in the pipeline.
  • Connor Prielipp – He was one of the top-performing starters in the system this season. Does it make sense for him to shift to a bullpen role, or to stay in the rotation?

This tiered structure highlights the Twins’ reality: plenty of options, but few certainties. And given how many bullpen spots are up for grabs after the trade deadline selloff, some of these names (particularly the “next wave” and “wild cards”) may be asked to shift into relief roles. That could accelerate their path to the big leagues, while also giving the Twins a chance to stabilize a bullpen in flux.

When Falvey arrived, the vision of a self-sustaining pitching pipeline was one of the biggest selling points. In 2025, the promise remains only partially fulfilled. Minnesota has discovered hidden gems, taken calculated risks on projects, and acquired talent through trades. But until the Twins can count on consistent, reliable production from their pipeline, both in the rotation and bullpen, fans will keep wondering when the “Cleveland magic” is finally going to show up at Target Field.

Next season could be the year it finally starts to become a reality—or it could be another reminder that Minnesota’s pipeline still leaks.


How do you feel about the pitching pipeline heading into 2026? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 


View full article

Posted

I think Matthews has a high of making the opening day rotation in 2026. He has shown some flashes, and I like him a lot as a pitcher. Mick Abel probably won't be on the opening day roster unless there are some trades or injuries. Aside from his one good start versus Philadelphia, he was pretty bad. I am not denying the upside but he still has stuff to prove, and with a crowded rotation, he might not be one of the top 5 starters as of now, but he will probably get there. Most likely  Kendry Rojas' future with the Twins is as a bullpen arm, along with Priellipp. I am very interested in seeing how it turns out in 2026

Posted

Some Pitching pipeline...yes some of the guys pitched well toward the end but how can you count on them after just a couple good starts?  They will undoubtedly give the young guys ample chances to prove themselves.  I don't see anyway that they keep Lopez with his 21.5 million in salary due next year.  It doesn't fit their philosophy.  Ryan?  I'm saying it's 50/50 if he gets traded.  They should keep him but this ownership group and Falvey don't have a clue.

Posted

Pitching pipeline sounds good but it is nonsensical really. One could go through every single team (not me) and create charts of who is or isn't part of the concept. The 5 starting pitchers for the 2025 Twins were Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Woods Richardson, where 4 of 5 were from other organizations. The end of the 2025 season was 6 guys (Ryan, Ober, Woods Richardson, Bradley, Abel, and Matthews), with 2 of the 6 coming from the Twins organization. 

The Twins do have some nice potential in their pitching. Like many other teams, collect a pile of arms and hope some work out. I'm bullish on the pitching staff but pitching pipeline is just a hook for those who need a reason to read an article.

Posted
1 hour ago, Permanent Twins Fan said:

I think Matthews has a high of making the opening day rotation in 2026. He has shown some flashes, and I like him a lot as a pitcher. Mick Abel probably won't be on the opening day roster unless there are some trades or injuries. Aside from his one good start versus Philadelphia, he was pretty bad. I am not denying the upside but he still has stuff to prove, and with a crowded rotation, he might not be one of the top 5 starters as of now, but he will probably get there. Most likely  Kendry Rojas' future with the Twins is as a bullpen arm, along with Priellipp. I am very interested in seeing how it turns out in 2026

All our best guesses rely on the absence or presence of Pablo and Joe. It's interesting but fruitless to guess about starting pitching until we find out. 

But for several months guessing is all we got, and playoffs!

Posted

The pipeline has plenty of potential. Lets not forget about the guys that have had so much success that they were traded away by penny pinchers to get more pipeline potential.  The business end of this seasons’ sell off still bites. 

Posted
20 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

There is no pipeline. It's just a constant churn of names, year after year. This was Falvey's 9th season and Ober is still the only SP this "pipeline," has spit out to post anything other than fringy back end type production. 

I totally agree that any claim of a "pipeline" is fully exaggerated.  Bailey Ober is the only true home grown prospect that has made any real contribution to the starting rotation developed in this leadership.    Cole Sand is a fringe reliever they have developed from a 5th round pick in 2018.

I question their ability to draft pitching and think their reputation that is spread on this site if way over stated.  While they got a 12th round pick in 2017 to be a quality starter with a 9.2 WAR, who else have they drafted.  In the 2017 draft they selected Landon Leach in 2nd, Blayne Enlow in 3rd with a celebrated bonus move, Charlie Barnes in 4th, Widell in 7th, and Faucher in 10th.

(The fact is this regime's entire draft history has been a failure unless you want to count Brent Rooker's 8.8 WAR with the Oakland A's a success especially comapred to 1st overall Royce Lewis'  4.1 career WAR).

They have been somewhat successful in trading minor league pitching talent and other trades, trading first round pick Chase Petty for a couple of years of Sonny Grey (and gettting a comp pick for when Gray left as a free agent).  They identified solid pitching talent in Lopez and Joe Ryan, and Duran.

I will also add that the Twins cheap ownership has hindered them somewhat in development.  The Twins were not going to pay Jose Berrios the market rate for a starting pitcher of his quality (about $15-20 million) so he had to be dumped.  Everyone knows the Twins will dump a player once they cannot control their salary so the return for Berrios seemed better than it was (Martin was the 5th overall pick the year before the trade) but it really has not panned out.  Having a starter like Berrios in the rotation WITH the other guys could have made a huge difference in competitive level.  

But Berrios, like Duran and Jax this season, was dumped because the owners are not going to pay salary to keep a competitive lineup.  Simeon Woods RIchardson is mediocre the past two seasons (Berrios was traded 5 seasons ago) and that is about what we can ask for as Twins fans.

 

Posted

It looks like they have some guys with good enough stuff to be very good starters. SWR has the confidence and attitude to be very good, as evident during his last starts against very good teams. Abel has dominant stuff, only question is can he consistently control it. Same is true of Bradley. They’re sitting on a possibly dominant starting staff. With young pitchers (or young players) it only takes a game or two for the light bulb to go on and it starts to click. It looked like these three put it together at the end of year. Hopefully that carries over to next year and they will be dominant if they continue to pitch like their last starts. 
If that happens then I’ll have to give Falvey credit for developing pitching. I don’t expect a turnaround next year even if the starters are excellent. Too many other areas need improvement as well before they can dig out of the hole they’re in. 

Posted

There's an interesting collection of ten names for that 5th spot.  Bradley, Mathews, Abel, Prielipp and Morris all seem pretty close to ready.  They need to refine their pitches, but it's a nice starting 5 after the MLB starting 4.  (I'm not including Festa because I think with shoulder issues the pen makes more sense.)

Even after that you have arms that by mid year could be options in Rojas, Raya, Culpepper, Klein Gallagher and maybe MaCleod if he finds better control and command.

After that you have a next wave likely for 2027 of Soto, Hill, Bohorquez, Quick and Oliveros with other interesting arms drafted higher than normal in Ellwanger, Reitz, and Barr, who have tantalizing upside. Add in Horn the lefty they traded for and that's another nice group of arms just a couple of years away.

There's also still a chance that Langenberg (who came on strong later in the year), Peschl, Kisting, Doktorcyyk turn into something down the line as they pitched well at times last year.  Just need to find more consistency.,  I would bet at least one or two of those arms turns into something down the line.

Even in the DSL they have two top young arms in Castellanos and Villoria who could be in the states soon helping to add more high end arms to the farm.

They really strengthened the systems starting pitching at the deadline.  Granted they lost all the high leverage arms in the pen to do it.  Still given all the names here some of those guys and my hope Festa is one of them ,can help remake the pen.

With the trades and this years draft focused on high end arms it feels like the Twins might have the strongest starting pitching throughout all their affiliates that I have ever seen.

Granted will it all translate?  We know not all of them will, but with the shear number of high end options some of them have to make it. 

Posted

It depends how you define "pitching pipeline." Does trading Petty for Gray mean the pipeline worked in that case? How about trading Cruz for Ryan? Don't think AAA counts, what about trading for Duran who I believed started in AA? Of course, if that counts, then trading Duran for Abel has to count, right?

Cleveland has long been touted as having a pitching pipeline. Yet, look how many guys they get via trade.

Posted
1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

There is no pipeline. It's just a constant churn of names, year after year. This was Falvey's 9th season and Ober is still the only SP this "pipeline," has spit out to post anything other than fringy back end type production. 

When they said pitching pipeline they did not say minor league players we developed. These guys are sneaky that way. 

Posted

Falvey was touted as the guru of the pitching pipeline in Cleveland.  In 2016, the Twins hired him to do the same thing in Minnesota.  Nine years have passed and Cleveland is still producing pitchers and the Twins have not.  Was Falvey the right guy to hire?  I think they hired the wrong guy.

Posted
13 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

It depends how you define "pitching pipeline." Does trading Petty for Gray mean the pipeline worked in that case? How about trading Cruz for Ryan? Don't think AAA counts, what about trading for Duran who I believed started in AA? Of course, if that counts, then trading Duran for Abel has to count, right?

Cleveland has long been touted as having a pitching pipeline. Yet, look how many guys they get via trade.

Quite a few. They even pick up minor league free agents. They said they would build a pipeline. They did not say where the flow would come from 

Posted
1 hour ago, LyleCole said:

I totally agree that any claim of a "pipeline" is fully exaggerated.  Bailey Ober is the only true home grown prospect that has made any real contribution to the starting rotation developed in this leadership.    Cole Sand is a fringe reliever they have developed from a 5th round pick in 2018.

I question their ability to draft pitching and think their reputation that is spread on this site if way over stated.  While they got a 12th round pick in 2017 to be a quality starter with a 9.2 WAR, who else have they drafted.  In the 2017 draft they selected Landon Leach in 2nd, Blayne Enlow in 3rd with a celebrated bonus move, Charlie Barnes in 4th, Widell in 7th, and Faucher in 10th.

(The fact is this regime's entire draft history has been a failure unless you want to count Brent Rooker's 8.8 WAR with the Oakland A's a success especially comapred to 1st overall Royce Lewis'  4.1 career WAR).

They have been somewhat successful in trading minor league pitching talent and other trades, trading first round pick Chase Petty for a couple of years of Sonny Grey (and gettting a comp pick for when Gray left as a free agent).  They identified solid pitching talent in Lopez and Joe Ryan, and Duran.

I will also add that the Twins cheap ownership has hindered them somewhat in development.  The Twins were not going to pay Jose Berrios the market rate for a starting pitcher of his quality (about $15-20 million) so he had to be dumped.  Everyone knows the Twins will dump a player once they cannot control their salary so the return for Berrios seemed better than it was (Martin was the 5th overall pick the year before the trade) but it really has not panned out.  Having a starter like Berrios in the rotation WITH the other guys could have made a huge difference in competitive level.  

But Berrios, like Duran and Jax this season, was dumped because the owners are not going to pay salary to keep a competitive lineup.  Simeon Woods RIchardson is mediocre the past two seasons (Berrios was traded 5 seasons ago) and that is about what we can ask for as Twins fans.

 

Berrios in Toronto has had an ERA and FIP over 4 in Toronto. That puts him at about league average. If they guessed right when they traded for Duran. Why not give them the benefit of the doubt on their other young acquisitions?

Posted

I cannot get excited when the front office raves about the pitching or position prospects in the system  ...

what they have accomplished in the minor leagues They still have alot to prove at the major league level  ...

They haven't developed enough in my opinion to be considered successful , they haven't really proven anything with homegrown prospects  , like mentioned by others our starters are players we traded for except for Ober ...

Take it for what it's worth , trust the front office or don't trust the front office  ....

 

Posted
1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

Falvey was touted as the guru of the pitching pipeline in Cleveland.  In 2016, the Twins hired him to do the same thing in Minnesota.  Nine years have passed and Cleveland is still producing pitchers and the Twins have not.  Was Falvey the right guy to hire?  I think they hired the wrong guy.

Fire that guy.  ASAP.

Posted

FACT, but not completely proven just yet.

First of all, I'm just sick of the whole "pipeline" mantra. Who came up with that? And why should a "pipeline" only be concerning pitching? I also vehemently denounce the "there is no such thing as a pitching prospect" mantra I've heard for decades now. Of course there is! Pitchers are just as much of a prospect as INF and OF and C are! Some make it, and some don't. 

TWO quick adds:

1] Cleveland, often held up as a certain standard the Twins are SUPPOSED to emulate has acquired many of their quality arms via trades. They haven't all been draft selections.

2] Not all, but the majority of Twins pitching prospects we currently discuss were drafted in 2022, or later. Yes, a few were picked earlier, like Ober for example, but most come from '22 or even more recent. This is 2025. How many TOP arms should be embarrassing ML hitters in their 3rd season?

If you don't want to include Lopez or Ryan as part of this silly, mythical "pipeline", that's your choice. But the Twins acquired and then improved Lopez. Ryan was in AAA, but he wasn't one of Tampa's TOP prospects. The Twins turned him in to an All Star caliber pitcher.

Duran was a lower level arm turned in to a stud closer. Jax was a peculiarly high draft choice as a SP from Air Force and was turned in to a stud setup man. Ober was a later pick turned in to a quality #2-3 SP. Varland was a 2 time MILB pitcher of the year that just couldn't translate to the ML level on a consistent basis as a SP. But he sure turned out to be a hell of a pen arm!

SWR was acquired as a 20-21yo kid with a crazy MILB developmental time table who has been turned in to a decent SP, and who's new splitter just might have him raising his game another notch going in to 2026.

Festa was a late round pick who has absolutely flashed since his debut, but hasn't found full consistency yet. His shoulder probably bothered him most of 2025 in retrospect. His early prognosis is good. I think he moves to the pen as I think he can dominate there, and his arm/body are probably just a better fit there.

And then comes 2022.

Prielipp, Morris, Matthews, CJ Culpepper, and former MILB pitcher of the year Lewis all came out of that draft. We all know Prielipp's story, and his very successful 2025 season. Whether he remains a starter or converts to the pen is TBD. Matthews was pressed in to duty late in 2024 earlier than what he was ready for. His numbers don't look so great on the surface. But some of his numbers are intriguing, and he's absolutely flashed his potential. Berrios stunk as a rookie. So how about a little slack for Matthews at this point? Morris was almost as good as Matthews in a similar skyrocket through the system in 2024. He had a solid 2025, and a very strong finish. Culpepper has had a couple minor injuries that have slowed him slightly, but had a good 2025 and seems ready for AAA in 2026. Lewis had a season he and all of us would like to forget. But what if he moves to the pen and just throws as hard/well as he can and mixes in that crazy knuckleball for some K's? 

A couple more throw-ins:

Raya's good stuff by lack of consistency has him probably moved to the pen now where he's got the potential to be late inning dominate in the near future. MacLeod and Nowlin are a pair of hard throwing LH that have converted to the pen as well, and might be only half a season away. Our own TD RP of the year had arms like Laweryson, Hoopes, Bragg, Parades, and Whitaker all throwing at AA...or above, even briefly...as 1 UDFA, and a collection of late round picks who might help in the pen as early as next season. UDFA surprise Klein had a great season and reached AAA at the end, with mixed results.

Again, how many arms from 2022 and later should we be expecting dominating performances from at this point? And YES, I know they had drafts before that. That's where Ober, Varland, and Festa come in to play, along with Ohl, Adams, and a few more arms I've previously mentioned have reached the ML level, or are close.

If we want to dig deeper, as @Dmanalready did, there's more than a handful of really good looking arms like Soto, Hill, Langenberg, Bohorquez, and others that should keep Cedar Rapids really strong next season.

Heck, if you really want to stretch, you could even say this silly "pipeline" idea brought Gray to the Twins when they traded #1 pick Chase Petty to the Twins. 

If your idea of this crazy "pipeline" process is only about drafting arms, developing them, and turning them in to front line SP, or even mid or backend SP, I think you're misguided. Nobody does that in COMPLETE. Not even the Guardians.

BTW, I haven't even mentioned recent additions such as Bradley, Abel, Rojas, Gallagher, or Horn. And I can understand not including Bradley since he's already pitched for Tampa for a couple of seasons. But then again, wasn't he acquired FOR a Twins success story in Jax?

So YES, this silly "pipeline" idea is a FACT. But it's slightly unproven as of yet until we see a couple more arms like Matthews, Festa, Morris, etc, firmly establish themselves as either viable starters or important pen options. That's part of the unproven part. But improving Lopez, developing Ryan, Ober, Jax, Duran, SWR, and Varland are part of the FACT portion of any arguement.

Posted

I think the article points out our pipeline is clogged.  Lots of names, But lousy production.  Not only have we blown out the arms, but we have not had anyone step in with consistency like the pitchers in Cleveland or Milwaukee.  The mythical pipeline is only a reality when we see production in MLB..

Posted

You can call it whatever. A pipeline or ham sandwich. You can all debate effective or ineffective. 

I'll just point out that we haven't had to sign Dylan Bundy types in awhile and that's good. If the pipeline or ham sandwich is effective enough to make Dylan Bundy unnecessary... That's good start.  On the offensive side of the ledger... we are trying to survive off of Dylan Bundy types. 

Duran, Jax, Varland are from this pipeline or whatever it is and they brought back 3 starting pitchers which keeps you further from Dylan Bundy. 

Plus they acquired a highly ranked young catcher in Tait and a decently ranked outfielder who are now products of this whatever you want to call it. 

On the other hand... this pipeline or whatever you want to call doesn't seem to be near the Cleveland (trade Beiber, Sewald at the trade deadline... lose Clase to suspension and get better afterwards) level. 

This pipeline doesn't seem to be near the Brewers (trade Corbin Burnes and get better after) level either. 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted
8 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

It depends how you define "pitching pipeline." Does trading Petty for Gray mean the pipeline worked in that case? How about trading Cruz for Ryan? Don't think AAA counts, what about trading for Duran who I believed started in AA? Of course, if that counts, then trading Duran for Abel has to count, right?

Cleveland has long been touted as having a pitching pipeline. Yet, look how many guys they get via trade.

This is also true of Tampa.  Both teams produce as much from trading established players for prospects as they do from drafting.   We also see the assumption the Twins traded Berrios because they are cheap repeated over and over?   How many SPs have the Guardians, Brewers or Rays given a 7 year extension or any significant extension?  The Brewers traded a legit Cy Young candidate away a couple years ago.  Cleveland has traded away quite a few very good SPs.  Just my opinion but I think we should pay more attention to how other teams in the bottom half of revenue have found success and not criticize the Twins for practices that have made other teams successful.

Posted

Since the expected aging and decline of players (people no longer in a Twins uniform) from the previous front office, the Twins have had difficulty winning games or playing sound baseball on a consistent basis despite spending more money than their ALC compatriots. 

Maybe things will change next year. 

Posted

Pablo Lopez - Acquired by trading All Star Cost Controlled Infielder who was a prospect Falvey inherited, signed to an extension.
Simeon WR - Acquired by trading All Star Cost Controlled Starter who was an MLB prospect Falvey inherited.
Joe Ryan - Acquired by trading All Star free agent signing Nelson Cruz coming off a season where he earned MVP votes.
Chris Paddack - Dylan Bundy/Chris Archer re-tread type who we apparently don't have in our rotation anymore? Acquired by trading All Star closer Taylor Rogers (inherited) and future All Star cast off Brent Rooker.

So yeah, you can build a pitching pipeline if you have a bunch of All Star surplus players, especially ones you inherited from the previous GM regime that are fueling all your success as a GM.


 

Posted

Twins were well known for developing hitters & having surplus. Which made a lot of sense that teams like MIA, which is well known for developing pitchers & having surplus to make a trade. Now Twins hitters aren't being developed like before. We don't have SPs to trade. We had a strong BP & traded them all away. 

This year, our pipeline of Ober, Matthews, Festa & MiLB pitchers have been disappointing. Hopefully, our pipeline will improve & step up to stabilize the rotation & fill out the BP. It made me happy when I watched a STL podcast with Kyle Gibson. While commenting on the new young SPs to start out in the MLB in long relief & spot starting, instead of wasting their bullets in AAA. Much like I've advocate here. Once they get their feet wet, develop their pitches & endurance they get established in the rotation, then we can think about trading from our surplus. like CLE.

Falvey was hired to establish a CLE-type piching pipeline. It has been 9 years & IMO, leaves something to be desired.

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