Gabriel Gonzalez is a Great Hitter, but It Might not Matter

[Jamie Cameron]

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge

Gabriel Gonzalez is a confounding baseball player. He sits squarely at the intersection of many of my own personal prospect biases. I don’t favor this type of prospect. And yet, he’s raking. Because he’s raking (and because I lost a friendly wager), it’s time to give his performance a more thorough examination. What is he? What might he become?

Gonzalez was acquired in the Jorge Polanco trade in January 2024. The Twins acquired Anthony DeSclafani, Justin Topa, Darren Bowen, and Gonzalez in return for the longtime fan favorite second baseman. Gonzalez was the headliner of the return on the prospect side for the Twins.

Originally signed out of Venezuela by the Mariners, Gonzalez came to the Twins with a hyper-aggressive top-100 prospect ranking from MLB Pipeline (#79) entering the 2024 season. Gonzalez missed all of May and a chunk of June 2024 due to injury, and struggled at High A as a 19-year-old, managing a .706 OPS and a 106 wRC+. What had been touted as a potentially plus hit tool didn't look like one at that point.

What a difference a year makes, eh? After managing a .907 OPS in 34 games during a second stint at Cedar Rapids, Gonzalez has kicked on in Wichita. In 47 games at Double A, he’s hitting .370/.453/.522 with two home runs (22 extra base hits), a 9.7% walk rate, a measly 11.6% strikeout rate, and a healthy 173 wRC+.

Let’s dig into what Gonzalez does well. I think we can see where the plus hit tool prognostication came from. Gonzalez uses the whole field beautifully. In his emerging Double-A sample, his batted-ball events find the pull side, center of the field, and opposite side 39% of the time, 23.2% of the time, and 37.8% of the time, respectively. You can’t live out the ‘take what you’re given’ hitting adage more aptly than that. Gonzalez has also turned into a line-drive machine. It’s a rate approaching 29% at Wichita, well above his 21% mark at Cedar Rapids in 2024. There are also really good bat-to-ball skills here. His current overall contact rate of 86% is well above average.

This is undeniably an impressive turnaround from Gonzalez. I think it’s fair to say he’s rediscovered some of his lost shine from 2024. So, am I prepared to admit defeat and buy Gonzalez prospect stock? Not so fast.

There’s a case to be made that it’s still an extremely narrow pathway for Gonzalez as an MLB regular, for two primary reasons: not enough quality supplementary tools, and questions about his power production relative to his defensive position. At a high level, from this seat, it’s a plus arm, below-average glove, and a below-average run tool for Gonzalez. He has the arm to stick in right field, but the mobility isn’t great, and the routes and defensive actions are a bit raw. That’s not to say he can’t take steps forward, but it is to say that right now, he profiles as a below-average defensive outfielder who doesn’t run well.

Next, there’s the power. Gonzalez has been a doubles machine at Double A (18 in his first 47 games). He hit 18 home runs in 116 games in Seattle’s farm system in 2023. Since then, though, he's clubbed just 11 home runs in 157 games at High A and Double A. That doesn’t clear the bar for a big-league corner outfielder. His .152 ISO would rank 46th out of 60 qualified MLB outfielders. As currently constructed, it’s fringy power. One final concern that’s worth noting for Gonzalez is his swing rate. It’s come down plenty since his DSL days, but at roughly 52%, he’s still a free swinger. There’s a narrow path to tread for aggressive hitters with good bat-to-ball skills. The potential pitfall is eroding quality of contact, the higher he climbs the ladder.

How do we square all this? Simply, by saying that Gonzalez has had a tremendous 2025 season. That’s undeniable. Unless some combination of the defense and power ticks up, however, I’ll have a hard time envisioning him as a high-quality MLB regular. The profile ends up feeling a lot like that of Avisaíl García. People loved to dream on García, but in roughly 4,300 career plate appearances, he had a 100 OPS+. Then, too, García debuted in the majors at a younger age than Gonzalez's right now, and he was huge, whereas Gonzalez is a sturdy but compact 5-foot-11. For me, he fits a 'tweener profile, not quite an everyday player. He'd be better as a right-handed platoon bat. For now, all he can do is to continue hitting anything and everything thrown his way, a task he’s taken to with gusto and great success in 2025.

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[ToddlerHarmon]

Worry about the HR rate when he's 24

[FlyingFinn]

At least this year, Gonzalez appears to be the OF version of Luis Arraez.

[MinnInPa]

bull..if you are batting well over .300 at AA..you have a long MLB career ahead of you. he should be up at AAA right now. Twins need more On Base hitting machines that dont K over 30 % . Give the kid a chance

[Fatbat]

@FlyingFinn yeah, my comment was going to be…. We thought he would be Eddie Rosario but he is more like Arraez. If he keeps hitting doubles in AAA… he will get on the 26/40 man soon enough. 

[DJL44]

He might drop off as he climbs the ladder but there aren’t many more rungs left to climb. Reminds me a little of Michael Cuddyer as a RH bat with a strong arm and otherwise below average defensive ability.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

So Jamie,  did you ever like Arraez?  He is effectively the outfield version of Arraez witha little more power.  Gonzalez is also 21.  He has time to become a better defender and gain more power.  A 21 year old mashing in AA is a 21 year old mashing in AA.  Thats a hell of a feat in any situation.  It also means that bat will most likely translate.   AA is generally the make or break level, of determining MLB talent.  Not to say players cant plateau at AAA,  or be AAAA never being able to figure out the MLB level,  but the biggest hurdle is AA.  

Gonzalez after an adjustment period has improved immensely.  I have thought Gabriel has looked a little more fit this summer, I think it has also helped his performance.   Right now I think the biggest risk for Gonzalez will be the nutrition side.  He will need to keep all the athleticism he has.  He absolutely cannot go down the Sano path.  

What this article is kind of showing is that we want to peg players into boxes or cookie cutter molds.  Had you been writing articles what would you have thought of someone like Kirby Puckett.  Like Gonzalez,  shorter build,  stocky legs, he did have more speed especially early in career, but he could hit the crap out of the ball (even though a .620 OPS in AAA in 20 games and a .650 OPS in MLB the remainder of 1984).  Based on the projection you are making of Gonzalez you likely wouldn't have thought much of Puckett.  The power didn't begin to show up until he was 26.   I am not here to say Gonzalez is Kirby Puckett, just making a point.  

Gonzalez even now will be rated higher than Arraez ever was and will be given more opportunities.  Honestly,  as long as he continues to tweak and get a little better with the bat,  there is very little imagination needed to see him as an everyday MLB player.    

[JD-TWINS]

He’s 20………RF or LF can be manned by someone that can hit………DH as a supplementary spot in line-up as well. He’s got time to become a near average outfielder. He’s a ‘27 call up at age 22. Needs to put in some serious work on defense w/o losing his offensive focus. He can better his launch angle on pitches over time but don’t want to coach/instruct the line drive hitter out of him.

Oliva couldn’t break into the Show because he couldn’t play the OF, at all……….won a Gold Glove eventually. Can’t be chicken little on OF defensive potential, unless he just can’t run. Bunch of doubles suggests to me that he can run at least at an average level.

.522 Slug% with only 2 Home Runs is just fine with most folks …….a .425 Slug% would improve the Twins corner OF depth!

Not 100% sold in the guy but he sure is trending well for a young kid!

[ziggy]

Hmmmn, lacks instinct, slow afoot, free swinger, possible corner outfielder only, seems to be the Twins preferred profile.   Pedro Munoz anyone???

I hope he continues to hit lots of doubles. Line drives and doubles are better than ocassional homers and swing and misses. 

[chpettit19]

Jose Miranda is who I see. Bad corner defender with less-than-ideal power who swings too much but good bat to ball skills. 115ish OPS+ bat in the majors. 

[Trov]

I fully get the lack of defense and poor running as a reason to not be high on him.  I can even get that he has not shown much power, yet.  He is still only 21.  Although not super common, there are players that develop power later into 20's and were not known for it when in minors, but where elite bat to ball guys. 

I am not saying he will become either of the two guys I am about to list, but both were shorter guys, both shorter than Gonzalez, had almost 0 power in early 20's but were great hitters and eventually developed power.  

A recent guy, Jose Altuve, had very few HR in minors and his early MLB career.  He did not crack 20 HR until his age 26 season. Since then he has had several high teens to even 30HR seasons.  He is not a huge power guy, and yes he was a 2nd baseman until this year, but he was always a solid hitter and developed some power. 

Kirby Puckett was another guy who had little power in his early 20's.  He did not have double digit HR until he was 26, when he jumped to 31 from 4 the year before.  He was a free swinger that hit to all fields.  In his younger days he was a good runner, and was known to be a great defender, so not a complete comp prospect wise.

However, my point is that power can be developed over time, but generally learning to get bat on ball is something that does not get more developed as time goes by. Will he be even close to either of these guys, doubtful, but to downgrade him because he does not have power at 21 could be a mistake. 

[Dman]

58 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

At least this year, Gonzalez appears to be the OF version of Luis Arraez.

I would concur.  They said the same thing about Arraez.  No room at the inn.  Too slow, bad arm, no power, hit tool won't be enough and I'd argue Gonzalez has more power than Arraez even if it isn't home run power and I think you can see that with the slugging.   Not saying Gonzalez will be the same, but you need hitters in todays game and he can hit.

To the OP's point it isn't the prettiest profile of an elite prospect like Jenkins.  He doesn't run that well, but the games I've watched he hasn't looked awful or anything in the outfield.  Certainly will never be a plus defender  and with Jenkins and Rodriguez coming up be may not see much outfield time except in a platoon role, but let's not pretend he is any less valuable than say Keaschall who doesn't look like a plus defender anywhere either.  They'll have to hide him at second or first and maybe left.  Granted he can run much better than Gonzalez but with a 40 to 45 arm does that make him Beninitendi in left?

I am also not convinced they couldn't put Gonzalez at fist if needed.  Sure he has plenty of warts on the defensive side, but as the saying goes if you can hit we'll find room and he can hit.  They'll find room.

 

[Doctor Gast]

Gonzalez is a free-swinging contact hitter. Well below average runner & fielder. So what good is it, if he has good arm if he doesn't get to a ball or field it? Where did they get that he has any HR potential? That evaluation has no real basis. So why do people still dream that it will somehow miraculously appear? Last year he didn't live up to his contact hitting profile, this year he is, If he was a slick fielding SS, he'd be worthy of his high ranking (some still demand an above average slugging for the position of SS) but he's not. He's a RFer at best, so many HRs are a must. So until that materializes, he shouldn't be ranked  high or even dream that he'd become a MLBer at least for the Twins,

[BillyBallLives]

Jury is still out on the trade that acquired Gonzales, but we do know the Twins traded away a proven, versatile MLB player in Jorge Polanco for two injured pitchers and a couple of maybe prospects.

Classic Falvey.

I hope Gonzales pans out, but it’s hard to see how this helps the big-league club anytime soon.

( Would really like to know what's so disagreeable about my statement?) 
Did Falvey not trade away a proven player for two injured pitchers? Yes...totally factual.
Is Gonzales going to pan out.....we'll see?  Is he helping the team now...NO. )

( you'all must have a crystal ball that I don't )

[In My La Z boy]

27 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Jose Miranda is who I see. Bad corner defender with less-than-ideal power who swings too much but good bat to ball skills. 115ish OPS+ bat in the majors. 

Sounds like a "sell high" candidate if we were inclined to bolster this squad, as Miranda would have also been 2 years ago. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

Y'all are why so many organizations used to keep a 'Do Not Comp' list. Luis Arraez is not a person you should ever be comparing a prospect to, but you CERTAINLY shouldn't do it with a right-handed batter who's whiffing more in this, his best season by far, than Arraez ever has at a stop of any length anywhere in professional baseball. Get it together.

[tony&rodney]

The article is fair. Jamie makes some points and does an excellent job of supporting those thoughts.

Last year I wondered why the Twins ever agreed to accept Gonzalez in their trade with Seattle. Gonzalez was so rough in the outfield. He has improved tremendously. However, that rise was from totally unplayable to simply DH in the outfield. Perhaps he can make further improvements but he does possess two handicaps that he shares with current Twins: poor reads in the outfield and he is slow. The lack of power is troublesome. As others have stated, it is possible to change the swing to find some power. Kirby is a non-example because the two don't share any traits. Arraez never hit the ball as hard as Gonzalez does. Wait and see is how this will go. For now Gonzalez is playing well and learning.

Wonder if there is a team that would consider Gonzalez as a needed addition in a larger trade? The gaudy AA numbers are great but the Twins are already flush with DH's.

[Rufus]

I remember another Twins prospect from a couple years ago, a guy named Rooker, that all the wanna be GM's dissed because of his defense.  It seems he has carved out a nice career.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Rufus said:

I remember another Twins prospect from a couple years ago, a guy named Rooker, that all the wanna be GM's dissed because of his defense.  It seems he has carved out a nice career.

Every team passed on him twice, so it wasn't people here..... It was actual GMs.

[BillyBallLives]

3 minutes ago, Rufus said:

I remember another Twins prospect from a couple years ago, a guy named Rooker, that all the wanna be GM's dissed because of his defense.  It seems he has carved out a nice career.

YES ! Once a team finally committed to giving him regular ABs as a DH and let him focus on hitting, and not worrying about his glove.... he delivered. As other's have noted however, power hitting was a known quantity with Rooker. 

Q: Why don't the Twins do the same thing with Wallner?

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Rufus said:

I remember another Twins prospect from a couple years ago, a guy named Rooker, that all the wanna be GM's dissed because of his defense.  It seems he has carved out a nice career.

Rooker is an all-around bat. Power and average. There's a question as to how much power Gonzalez will get to at the major league level. And then you've got a guy with no speed, no defense, and he has to hit for a crazy average to be a worthwhile major leaguer. Luis Arraez is the guy many are naming (I agree with Trueblood that it's a bad comp) and he's hitting .283 this year and is an overall below average hitter who brings nothing else to the table because average is his only tool. Rooker brings massive power as well. He's a good enough overall bat to get MVP votes as a primary DH. That's the point of this article. Gonzalez isn't bringing that kind of bat. He's bringing a contact with minimal power bat and nothing else but a big arm. 

It's about how many tools you bring, and which tools they are. Hit/arm is not a great combination. Hit/speed would be better. Hit/power (like Rooker or Cruz) is one you can build a career around. But hit/arm leaves very little wiggle room as the "hit" has to be top of the charts good to build a career around it. Right now Gonzalez is making the case that he can build himself some kind of career around that hit tool. At least give himself enough time to see if he can develop more power. And that's all you can ask. But Rooker is an awful comp at this point.

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

Sounds like a "sell high" candidate if we were inclined to bolster this squad, as Miranda would have also been 2 years ago. 

Certainly could be. It'd depend on what the coaches (way smarter than me) see in him and what they know about his ability to learn and work. And what kind of return you could get. If he's the missing piece in a trade that returns me a more complete player with just as much control, I'd absolutely trade him. 

I love the bat to ball skills, but he's a 2 tool player at this point. And hit/arm is not a great combo for major league success. If their development people see more power coming then hold onto him. But if another team values him highly and you don't think there's more power coming I'd be very open to moving him.

[jmlease1]

8 minutes ago, BillyBallLives said:

Jury is still out on the trade that acquired Gonzales, but we do know the Twins traded away a proven, versatile MLB player in Jorge Polanco for two injured pitchers and a couple of maybe prospects.

Classic Falvey.

I hope Gonzales pans out, but it’s hard to see how this helps the big-league club anytime soon.

Polanco was not good last year and became a free agent, and was so sought after he had to take a pay cut. Let's not pretend otherwise, ok? He's been a good hitter this year, but is now relegated to almost exclusively playing DH because of his injury history and increasing lack of mobility, so he's no longer really even versatile. 

I don't believe you need to have significant HR pop to be an effective MLB hitter and play OF/DH. While that may be the normal mode, you can get to good offensive production in multiple ways, and if Gonzalez continues to be a good line-drive hitter with doubles power and the occasional dinger, it'll be fine. The Arraez comp is interesting, but ignores how much more power production GG has already shown in the minors; Arraez never topped a .450 SLG in any season the minors (no, 3 games of A-ball in 2017 doesn't count). GG has done it multiple times already and might finish this season with a SLG over .500 (something Arraez never came close to). That's plenty of pop to be effective even if you're not clobbering homers.

GG isn't just a slap hitter rolling up singles for an empty BA. Maybe he won't be able to sustain it as he advances, but right now, he's hitting line drives, taking walks when they're there, and showing off an impressive hit tool. The problem with Arraez wasn't that he didn't hit homers, it was when he wasn't hitting doubles either or taking walks he needed to hit an ungodly amount of singles in order to have real value. GG has a history of adding 70-80 pts to his OBP beyond his BA. Arraez was more like 50 pts in the minors (which he improved on early in MLB, but has shrunk to 30 pts in the past 2 seasons, which is a real reason why he's not effective now). GG is showing more pop in his bat as well.

If he can be a guy with a triple slash of .300/.370/.430 do we really care how he gets there? (BTW, that would be better than any OF the Twins have in MLB right now not named Byron Buxton)

GG is healthy this year and raking. Can't wait to see him in AAA. 

[tony&rodney]

17 minutes ago, BillyBallLives said:

YES ! Once a team finally committed to giving him regular ABs as a DH and let him focus on hitting, and not worrying about his glove.... he delivered. As other's have noted however, power hitting was a known quantity with Rooker. 

Q: Why don't the Twins do the same thing with Wallner?

All mention of Rooker needs to acknowledge that the Twins had Nelson Cruz and then Luis Arraez ahead of him. So should the Twins have cut Cruz at the beginning of 2019? Arraez later? Maybe a few people are confused by how many DH's are allowed in the game at one time. This is an ongoing problem FWIW. The Twins have too many DH's on their roster and even in their organization. 

Great for Rooker that he is making a good salary after three teams gave up on him. With the preponderance of DH players on the roster that same scenario could happen again and maybe even soon. So what? Maybe the larger lesson is that the Twins need to morph away from DH players. Then they won't suffer some fans worst fears when they trade or release one of the many guys fighting for that one position who gets a chance and succeeds elsewhere.

[jkcarew]

If the hit/contact tool proves to be elite, he’ll be in the majors. Period. Hit tool trumps every other tool, and it’s not close. Yes, if there’s no power, then the hit tool must be truly elite. But, it’s silly to obsessed with his power, he turned 21 this year.

2025:

Gonzalez…7 HR in 81 games

Rodriguez…5 HR in 51 games (one year older, one level higher)

Jenkins…3 HR in 35 games (one year younger, 2 HR in 26 AA games).

 

The obsessing on his power at this stage is silly. Maybe he never developes power. Who knows? But where are the ‘beware, Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez may never develop power’ articles??

[GNess]

Twins fan culture. Find a dark cloud in a silver lining whenever possible.

[nicksaviking]

It's not about his age; I don't think he's going to 'grow into' much more power if this is his MO going forward:

"I think we can see where the plus hit tool prognostication came from. Gonzalez uses the whole field beautifully. In his emerging Double-A sample, his batted-ball events find the pull side, center of the field, and opposite side 39% of the time, 23.2% of the time, and 37.8% of the time, respectively. You can’t live out the ‘take what you’re given’ hitting adage more aptly than that."

Lots of people still wish we were watching 1980's baseball, so there is some attraction to that, but there has to be some power; can't just be a slap hitter in today's game. While he is short, he does look more put together than Luis Arraez and Austin Martin, and unlike them, he does have a past history of putting the ball over the fence. Quite often guys who have a tremendous hit tool won't risk that and adjust to add the needed power element (resisting, resisting, do not speaketh his name......) but there is a difference between can't adjust and won't adjust. So maybe.

[jkcarew]

48 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Y'all are why so many organizations used to keep a 'Do Not Comp' list. Luis Arraez is not a person you should ever be comparing a prospect to, but you CERTAINLY shouldn't do it with a right-handed batter who's whiffing more in this, his best season by far, than Arraez ever has at a stop of any length anywhere in professional baseball. Get it together.

Also…Gonzalez has a SLG about 80 points HIGHER than Arraez had at any and every stop in the minors.

The bad comparison goes both ways. Get it together.

[Major League Ready]

Arraez hit 6 home runs in roughly 1400 Milb PAs so they are far from the same and Gonzalez looks capable of a higher OPS.  It's also not at all a stretch to believe he will develop more power given his age.  It does not seem like a big stretch to believe he could become an 18-20HR guy?  If he can hit for a high average, produce a high on base percentage, and hit 18-20 HRs that would be a very good offensive player.  I will take that guy hitting 4th or 5th.

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, ziggy said:

Hmmmn, lacks instinct, slow afoot, free swinger, possible corner outfielder only, seems to be the Twins preferred profile.   Pedro Munoz anyone???

That hurts, man.