Orioles 11, Twins 3: Chris Paddack Pretty Much Nails Louie Varland Impression

[Ted Schwerzler]

A night after dropping a game that got out of hand against the Baltimore Orioles, the Minnesota Twins dropped a game that got out of hand against the Baltimore Orioles. Chris Paddack was largely ineffective from the get-go; his inability to end innings with two outs spelled disaster for the reeling Roccos.

Image courtesy of © Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Chris Paddack 5.1 IP, 12 H, 9 ER, 9 ER, 1 BB 2 K (89 pitches, 58 strikes, 6 whiffs)
Home Runs: None
Bottom 3 WPA: Chris Paddack (-.342), Christian Vazquez (-.046), Alex Kirilloff (-.045)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Sheriff Serves it Up
After the Minnesota Twins and Baltimore Orioles both traded zeroes in the first inning, Baltimore broke the ice in the second. Chris Paddack was on the bump for the visitors, and while he had flashed solid outcomes thus far this season, he struggled to assert dominance and end innings.

With two outs and two strikes. James McCann broke through against the Twins starter. No longer playing for the Tigers or White Sox, McCann continued to do damage against a familiar American League Central foe. His two-out liner into the right-center gap was booted by Manuel Margot, allowing Colton Cowser to score. One batter later, Gunnar Henderson blasted a two-run homer and made it a 3-0 game.

Similar to Louie Varland last night, Paddack was unable to execute the final pitches necessary to get back into the dugout. McCann’s double was an unfortunate result, but it was Henderson’s big fly that truly spoke to the Twins' perpetual pitching problems.

More of the Same
Many of the same outcomes have repeated themselves for the Twins in the early going this season. Following big innings for the opposing offense, the lineup has consistently gone down in order and returned to the field with the other side's momentum intact. After Willi Castro walked to lead off the third inning, Margot lined out, and Christian Vázquez grounded into a double play to end the frame.

As has also happened often this year, the opposition then ruthlessly added to their advantage. Already up 3-0, Baltimore started their half of the third inning with a Ryan O’Hearn single. After Anthony Santander lined out, Cedric Mullins singled and Colton Cowser grounded out to drive in the fourth run.

Once again close to closing a frame with two outs, Paddack threw Jordan Westburg a fat first-pitch strike, and the young infielder sent it over the left-center field wall to make it a 6-0 game. Henderson’s second hit of the game scored Jackson Holliday, and now up 7-0 in the early stages, Baltimore was in position to cruise to victory.

Paddack the Pin Cushion
You’d like to think that being down 7-0 through the first three innings of a game represents rock bottom, but the Twins found a way to make it worse. While Paddack had largely escaped a blowup coming into this contest, he owned a 5.99 FIP and was headed for this kind of crash.

Another two-out run scored in the bottom of the fourth. This time, Cowser singled home Santander to make it an 8-1 game. The tally canceled out good fortune by Minnesota, after Byron Buxton tripled to left field in the top half of the frame, scoring Alex Kirilloff, and giving Minnesota their first run of the game.

After an ugly outing by Varland last night, the Twins needed Paddack to give them a chance, and he all but gave that away before recording the first nine outs of the game.

Buxton Does it Anyway
While the game was all but over early on tonight, the Twins continued to step into the batter’s box. The quality of their at-bats wasn’t ideal, but there were still some notable performances. Kirilloff singled home Jeffers in the sixth inning after the catcher notched his fourth double of the season. Making it 8-2, it was hardly a noteworthy occurrence.

In the bottom half of the inning, Santander singled Adley Rutschman in to make it a 9-2 game, but the highlight for Minnesota was Buxton’s defensive play in center field. While his injury history has become a substantial talking point at this juncture, Buxton simply continues to show up for the Twins in every way possible to start the year.

His catch up against the center-field wall against O’Hearn was impressive, and it saved further damage. The biggest positive is that he was no worse for the wear after hitting the padding; those are the types of plays baseball fans have come to love to see from the Twins outfielder.

It Gets Worse
Minnesota got some life from Vázquez to lead off the eighth inning, and his single put the Twins in a spot to claw back again. Edouard Julien immediately went down on strikes, though, and despite a wild pitch from Yohan Ramírez that moved the Minnesota catcher to second base, Jeffers and Kirilloff both punched out to end the inning without any sort of a threat.

In the bottom half, Jay Jackson continued to work against Baltimore. A leadoff walk of Rutschman immediately gave the Orioles a baserunner, and O'Hearn sent one over the wall just out of Buxton's reach this time. While a fan did impact the baseball, and potentially kept the Twins centerfielder from catching it, there was no interference call as the baseball was clearly above and beyond the wall.

Jair Camargo got a pinch-hit opportunity to start the 9th inning, making his major league debut against Mahtomedi's own Mike Baumann. Working a 3-1 count, he took a walk that brought Trevor Larnach to the plate and allowed for the outfielder to grab his first base hit of the season. When Miranda singled up the middle on the next at-bat, Camargo came around to score his first big league run.

That's where things ended though, and the Twins' ability to mount any sort of a comeback was thwarted before it got off the ground.

Notes
The Twins signed veteran outfielder Tony Kemp to a minor league deal on Tuesday. He provides some depth for the St. Paul Saints, who began the year with just two outfielders on their roster. Matt Wallner will also join the team after being optioned by Minnesota.

What’s Next? 
Wrapping up the series with Baltimore, the Twins send Pablo Lopez to the mound on Wednesday. The Orioles will have former Minnesota prospect Tyler Wells on the bump and then will have their last off day of the month. They return home over the weekend to face the same Detroit Tigers club they split with last weekend.

Postgame Interviews

 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

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[dberthia]

This could be a long summer. 2 or 3 decent starters, your top players out, and half a dozen guys hitting at or below the Sano line. They've got to beat up the Tigers, White Sox and Angels in the next few series.

[Aggies7]

The twins trying to carry the momentum of 2023 into the new season:

[jkcarew]

Buxton simply continues to show up for the Twins in every way possible to start the year.
 

 

Ok…now you’re just trolling us.

[ChermesZ]

15 hits for Baltimore tonight.  That’s like 5 games worth of hits for the twins.

[darwin22]

After Sunday's complete meltdown followed by Varland getting torched, I needed time tonight to divert my attention to other matters

Its quite amazing how low my stress level is tonight after ANOTHER dud of a game.

My emotional investment in this team is rapidly approaching the apathy stage.

Cutting back payroll is working out just as planned.

[mikelink45]

Okay, I am now in agreement - our rotation is not as good as last year.  I also am still waiting to see the best bullpen in baseball.  

The Twins got some hits after the game was essentially over.  Not impressed.

We need something to happen soon.  We are playing one of the really good teams and we look really bad.  After splitting with Detroit the hope was we would move forward, but we forgot that Detroit is in the central division.  We have two wins against KC and two against Detroit to go with one vs Dodgers and one vs Milwaukee.

[DocBauer]

Glad I wasn't able to watch. WOOF! Is the only good news from this one that Buxton made a great catch without being injured and it's still "only" the 2nd of a pair of truly embarrassing games so far?

Is it too early for this? And will I need to re-post again in a monthly follow up OP?

WHAT I EXPECTED:

1] Three quality SP to lead the staff and two guys who might take a little time to settle in. Except for an inexplicable blowup from Ober against KC, pretty much on track. Varland is still working on his mix, and Paddack is working his way back. But I didn't expect this game from Paddack. 

2] Without K machines in Gallo and Taylor, and with pretty much the same lineup that was #2 in the AL to end 2023, I thought the lineup would be more consistent, even though I expected a few bumps in the road from the kids. I thought Kirilloff was about ready to tee off. I wasn't expecting Jeffers to be AS GOOD as he was last year, but I thought he'd be good. I thought a healthy Correa and Buxton would make a difference. I have a couple right, but so much for any sort of consistent production idea.

3] I thought the pen would be a real strength. Well, despite a a couple performances, even with all the injuries, the pen hasnt been an issue.

WHAT I DIDNT EXPECT:

1] Lewis to go down in the 1st game and Correa to follow a couple weeks later. Probably the Twins best 2 players down for weeks, if not months in the case of Lewis. And then Kepler, one of the best 5 players, to also go down almost immediately. And I didn't expect Lee, the #2 prospect in the system, coming off a great ST, primed to step in to help, to also be injured.

2] I didn't expect 3 of the top 5 BP arms to not even make it to opening day! Although, again, the pen hasn't been the issue.

3] While Buxton is a streaky player, I didn't expect a healthy Buck to be awful past a couple initial games to begin the season. Again, I expected some bumps in the road from the kids, and Julien has shown life despite a few struggles, but I never expected Wallner to look this bad.

4] I wondered about Castro repeating 2023, but I had faith. And he had a great ST! I wasn't necessarily even expecting improvement, but I just wanted a repeat year. And I sure as hell never saw Farmer just being almost embarrassing at the plate. Vazquez worked hard in the offseason and had an OK ST, and a couple good PA early, while providing great defense and some great throws. But he's batting UFDA right now.

5] While I had HOPE, I NEVER saw SWR coming up to pitch a gem like he did in the double header. I know it's one game, but still, there's continued hope there. *GOOD NEWS

6] I wasn't sure the pen would have any glue with all the injuries taking place. And even then, the surprising Duarte gets hurt! But they've still been good so far, holding things together so far. 

What's happening so far, 3 weeks in, is disappointing as hell. There's no way to sugarcoat it. Despite a few bloops and bad plays, the rotation and pen have held together enough...except for a few bad games...to keep the Twins IN games. 

It's pretty hard to win when, even a few BAD games from the staff, when the offense struggles as much as it has. And IMO, it's still the offense that has been the biggest issue overall. 

But it's also hard to win when 3 of your top 5 bats are down. No excuses for SOME of the ineptitude we've seen. But STILL, when injuries ravage your team this much the FIRST MONTH of the season, and AAA reinforcements are ALSO hurt, what are you supposed to do?

Camargo was on the 40 man, but he was brought up to Jeffers could DH on half days off. Helman might have been brought up, but he's hurt as well now. SWR was GREAT, but Headrick...off to a great start...is now also on the IL.

I understand frustration with the injuries and the results. I understand frustration with Rocco and his staff and the game plans in place. Believe me I'm frustrated because this team should STILL be better by a game or two or three in the W-L colum DESPITE all the injuries.

You can't win a division in April but you can lose it. I disagree. We're still talking about a 6 month marathon. 

I'm looking at Rocco and his staff and the FO for the last 2 weeks of April and going in to May. Injuries are against you. What can you do to keep everyone going forward? Get Varland and Paddack to settle down. Put your best lineup out daily, and that means the young Martin and the questionable defensive challenged Miranda at 3B. Martin and Miranda aren't scrubs. Play them!

You're down Lewis and Correa and Kepler for now. Keep AK and Martin and Miranda in the lineup and hope for the best offense you can get even if you sacrifice some defense.

I just have this feeling, much like last year, that if we can stay about .500 the next month or so, we have a real chance to do something. 

 

 

 

[h2oface]

.....reeling Roccos..... calling the Twins "Roccos"?

I still have some vomit in my mouth.

"....on Wednesday. The Orioles will have former Minnesota prospect Tyler Wells on the bump and then will have their last off day of the month."

Wells was placed on the IL this evening due to "elbow inflammation". 

Pablo Day Lopez for us. I hope his last two starts are truly "off" days, because this getaway game is where Baldelli plays the B team, and I'm not sure what that even looks like, now. Maybe, with the day off Thursday, he will have the guys be big boys and gut it out and field his best team possible.

[hitterscount]

33 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Okay, I am now in agreement - our rotation is not as good as last year.  I also am still waiting to see the best bullpen in baseball.  

The Twins got some hits after the game was essentially over.  Not impressed.

We need something to happen soon.  We are playing one of the really good teams and we look really bad.  After splitting with Detroit the hope was we would move forward, but we forgot that Detroit is in the central division.  We have two wins against KC and two against Detroit to go with one vs Dodgers and one vs Milwaukee.

The bullpen is irrelevant when you can’t score and when you do your down by 5. It’s going to be a battle with the CWS to see who can lock down the AL Central cellar… first team to 90 wins 

[LastOnePicked]

It's only April, but I'm wondering if I was maybe right to push for a total rebuild after the 2021 season. I'd hate to lose those precious playoff victories of last year, but I think that's all we'll see from this squad for awhile. 

[singlesoverwalks]

Per the second chart in this Fangraphs article, the Twins have had the 6th-worst drop in MLB of their playoff odds since the season began. That about matches how I'm feeling emotionally. This is a bottom 20%-level disappointment.

[bean5302]

44 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

The bullpen is irrelevant when you can’t score and when you do your down by 5. It’s going to be a battle with the CWS to see who can lock down the AL Central cellar… first team to 90 wins 

White Sox are going to lose 100+

[bean5302]

Tyler Wells to the IL with right elbow inflammation.

[D.C Twins]

'Cause we're FREE..... free fallin'

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Cedric Mullins is the Twins Harold Baines for the '20s.

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, ChermesZ said:

15 hits for Baltimore tonight.  That’s like 5 games worth of hits for the twins.

Their ABs are horrible.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, singlesoverwalks said:

Per the second chart in this Fangraphs article, the Twins have had the 6th-worst drop in MLB of their playoff odds since the season began. That about matches how I'm feeling emotionally. This is a bottom 20%-level disappointment.

6th worst??

C'mon Twins, you can do worse than THAT!

[Dave Borton]

Where would you start with this team were you Baldelli?

Team hitting is dead last out of 30 teams. .191.

Team pitching: 20 teams have given up lower batting averages to their opponents.  (Tigers have yielded lowest opponents BA).

[wipster]

As long as the Pohlads are making millions, that's all I care about. Why pay for a top pitcher when there are bad ones everywhere for cheap!! They just picked up a career .237 hitter that'll fit right in I'm sure. Before long he'll be striking out just like the rest of them. The bottom line is all I care about as a fan. Make a profit, that's it!!!!       Sarcasm aside, this may work out better than I first thought. Twins continue to play as they are and that frees up the whole summer to do other thing!! HMMM.........................................

 

[Fezig]

So many people are quick to jump off the bandwagon for this team. This squad has the potential to be record breaking! Last years strikeout record could be turned to dust by mid-August, folks. Don't give up hope, yet!

[laloesch]

1 hour ago, Fezig said:

So many people are quick to jump off the bandwagon for this team. This squad has the potential to be record breaking! Last years strikeout record could be turned to dust by mid-August, folks. Don't give up hope, yet!

Cool-aid alert!  Not with the pitching this team has at the moment.  

[Riverbrian]

Camargo was allowed to walk up to the plate with a bat. A pinch hit opportunity in a blow out. 

5 games up in the big leagues... one pinch hit. 

Is our offense performing decently enough to keep anyone glued to the bench? 

 

 

[weneedneshek]

As everyone knew all offseason, we needed more starting pitching. I was one of very few people here upset we didnt snag Seth Lugo after the budget cut announcement, he could've been had easily. One of the few things I blame the FO for and not ownership

[laloesch]

8 minutes ago, weneedneshek said:

As everyone knew all offseason, we needed more starting pitching. I was one of very few people here upset we didnt snag Seth Lugo after the budget cut announcement, he could've been had easily. One of the few things I blame the FO for and not ownership

The Royals made some shrewd moves this offseason and it's paying dividends for them so far.  I wouldn't be surprised if they end up ahead of the Twins by season end.

[weneedneshek]

2 minutes ago, laloesch said:

The Royals made some shrewd moves this offseason and it's paying dividends for them so far.  I wouldn't be surprised if they end up ahead of the Twins by season end.

I actually predicted them to win the division in the poll a couple weeks back with us in second around 81 wins

[Karbo]

This is getting awfully hard to watch. As Yogi once said "its getting late early".

[Peter]

Don’t turn this forum into Facebook with all the negativity/trashing/badmouthing!!! Yes it sucks twins are off to bad start but you can’t give up on them!!! We need to and must support the twins!!! Don’t give up on them. These up coming series though are definitely must wins!!! Go Twins!!!

[rv78]

6 hours ago, davidborton said:

Where would you start with this team were you Baldelli?

#1. I'd dump the lefty/righty matchups when setting the musical chairs lineup. Why? I can answer that with questions...... How's it working so far?  Is Santana going 0 fer 4 against a lefty pitcher really better than playing Kirilloff? If Kirilloff does the same, is it any worse? Does slotting Farmer in the cleanup spot when he's hitting .071 the best hitter to put there? Why put Julien in the 9 hole spot verses a lefty pitcher when he is hitting .333 verses lefties yet bat him 1st in the lineup against righties when he's hitting .146? George Brett, who knew something about hitting said it best........ hitting is all about getting comfortable and to get comfortable, playing everyday in the same place on the field and in the lineup works best. Rocco's approach is the exact opposite. 

[Whitey333]

injuries not withstanding, the Twins deserve all the badmouthing.  In fact they have earned it.  Losing is one thing. But not being at all competitive is another.  The poor averages now called the Sano line?  Interesting as he is hitting .270 for the Angel's.  I'm so tired of the it's a marathon comments.  I just don't think they care about games in April.  It shows But this year they may not have the horses to take over the central like last year.  Plus the can always blame the injuries.  They got it made.