The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Player Assets of 2024: Part 4 (1-5)

[Nick Nelson]

We've reached the final five in our annual countdown of the top Twins player assets. Heading into 2024, these are the five players and prospects I view as most critical for the franchise's future.

Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff, Erik Williams (USA Today Sports) and William Parmeter

You can get a full explanation for the parameters used to develop this list in Tuesday's intro post, but the short version is this: We're trying the question: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion? To rank Twins players and prospects, we account for age, contract, controllability, upside, etc. 

Here's where I landed with my selections for the list so far in Part 1 (16-20), Part 2 (11-15) and Part 3 (6-10):

20. Chris Paddack, RHP
19. Austin Martin, CF
18. Max Kepler, RF
17. Alex Kirilloff, 1B
16. David Festa, RHP
15. Louie Varland, RHP
14. Jorge Polanco, 2B
13. Marco Raya, RHP
12. Matt Wallner, RF
11. Jhoan Durán, RHP
10. Joe Ryan, RHP
9. Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF
8. Edouard Julien, 2B
7. Bailey Ober, RHP
6. Carlos Correa, SS

Now, we turn our attention to the true franchise centerpieces – the top five player assets in the organization heading into 2024, from my view.

5. Ryan Jeffers, C
2023 Ranking: 16

Good-hitting catchers with legitimate receiving skills are notoriously hard to find. Among players at the position who made 300-plus plate appearances in 2023, Jeffers ranked second in wOBA (.369) behind only Mitch Garver, who was really more of a DH who could catch than the reverse. Jeffers, on the other hand, is a bona fide starting catcher who received every inning and at-bat in the playoffs. He's a defensive asset and an offensive force; the 26-year-old's .853 OPS in 2023 was 150 points higher than that of the average MLB catcher.

Rarity is what makes Jeffers a valuable commodity; you just don't often find backstops capable of bringing this kind of all-around impact. Last year, he led all Twins position players in bWAR and ranked second in fWAR, despite playing in only 96 games. That last number points to the next step for Jeffers: elevating into a true primary role over the course of a season (100+ starts), and growing his impact while continuing to produce like he did in the semi-limited sample of 2023--albeit a very convincing and swagger-filled sample.

4. Brooks Lee, SS
2023 Ranking: 3

During his first full pro season, Minnesota's 2022 first-round draft pick did everything he needed to do, in order to firmly assert himself among the game's top tier of prospects. Lee took the aggressive assignment of starting at Double-A Wichita in stride, posting an .841 OPS to earn a promotion to Triple A in August and position himself on the precipice of a big-league debut already. He's still only 22 years old.

Lee offers about as sturdy a floor as you could ask for in a prospect, as a switch-hitter with a balanced mix of discipline, power, and adaptiveness. Rocco Baldelli has marveled at his ability to make adjustments at the plate. Lee is also at the top of the defensive spectrum presently, though it's unlikely he'll play shortstop regularly in the majors. 

The question is one of ceiling; Lee seems like a surefire big-leaguer, but can he be an All-Star? Can he reach another level as he acclimates to the highest levels of professional ball? So far, he hasn't posted an OPS of .850 or higher at any stop in the minors. Of course, he also hasn't played more than 87 games at any level before getting promoted.

3. Pablo López, RHP
2023 Ranking: 9

He's the pitcher this front office was hired to find. The Twins franchise suffered for many years, and ultimately overturned its entire baseball operation, because they were unable to develop or acquire pitchers like López: a prime-aged, ace-caliber starter with a sustainable formula for dominance.

The front office smartly locked him up with a contact extension right away, so the Twins have López under team control for the next four years at a total of $73.5 million, in his age-28 through 31 seasons. It's a contract that looked good at the time and looks vastly better following a breakout season in which López ranked third in the majors in strikeouts, made the All-Star team, received Cy Young votes, and won two dazzling Game 1 starts in the playoffs.

It took a valuable asset to acquire him – Luis Arraez was ranked No. 10 here a year ago, before the Twins traded him – but through the lens of team-building, it's hard to deny this swap now looks like a slam dunk, especially with bats like Edouard Julien and others emerging to fill Arraez's avoid.

2. Royce Lewis, 3B
2023 Ranking: 6

Based purely on his talent and makeup, Lewis has continually hovered near the top of these rankings, despite barely playing as he worked through lost seasons and injury rehabs. When he made his long-awaited return from a second ACL surgery in late May, it quickly became clear that my faith was well placed. Lewis is an instant superstar.

In 70 games as a big-leaguer, he has consistently played at an MVP-caliber level, posting a .913 OPS with 17 home runs and 57 RBI in 280 plate appearances. The former shortstop took to playing third base with little issue. In the postseason, Lewis launched four homers in six games to jolt a quiet offense, willing the Twins out of their lengthy playoff slump. 

Still controlled for five more years, Lewis would pretty clearly be the club's No. 1 centerpiece going forward if not for the newcomer below, and some lingering injury question marks. If he can stay healthy, he can legitimately change the course of the franchise; he already has. Royce was worth the wait.

1. Walker Jenkins, CF
2023 Ranking: NR

There are compelling arguments for Lewis or López being No. 1 on this list. Admittedly, it's kind of difficult to place an 18-year-old, fresh out of high school with 26 whole games of professional experience, in front of players who are already blossoming on the major-league stage. 

The thing is, Jenkins just has it all. Minnesota's 2023 first-round draft pick was one of the top amateur talents in the entire country, widely viewed as having the makings of a No. 1 overall pick in most other years. The lefty-swinging outfielder only raised his stock after coming aboard, posting an absurd .362/.417/.571 slash line with only 14 strikeouts in in his first 115 plate appearances against pro competition. It's almost scary how good he looked in a dozen games against A-ball pitchers.

His potential is off the charts and, in the context of baseball prospects, the flame-out risk looks relatively low given his skill set and initial performance. Jenkins is on the Joe Mauer and Byron Buxton tier as a generational talent with almost limitless potential if he stays healthy. Were the Twins to make him available in a trade, he's the kind of prospect who would give them access to almost anyone. I suspect they'll be just fine hanging onto him and building around him.

That's a wrap folks! If you've been following around all week, it's appreciated, especially if you've shared your thoughts. This list is meant to spark conversation. Here's a rundown of the final list:

20. Chris Paddack, RHP
19. Austin Martin, CF
18. Max Kepler, RF
17. Alex Kirilloff, 1B
16. David Festa, RHP
15. Louie Varland, RHP
14. Jorge Polanco, 2B
13. Marco Raya, RHP
12. Matt Wallner, RF
11. Jhoan Durán, RHP
10. Joe Ryan, RHP
9. Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF
8. Edouard Julien, 2B
7. Bailey Ober, RHP
6. Carlos Correa, SS
5. Ryan Jeffers, C
4. Brooks Lee, SS
3. Pablo López, RHP
2. Royce Lewis, 3B
1. Walker Jenkins, CF

Check back next week for more analysis of this list and the state of the Twins talent landscape. Happy New Years, and cheers to big things for the Twins in 2024!

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[nicksaviking]

This was a fun series for sure!

Jenkins number one is a bit unconventional. If the Twins were to trade Lewis or Lopez, would we expect to have to ADD pieces to get Jenkins? 

[jjswol]

I like Walker Jenkins too but don't see him as the Twins top asset. Like you said, he has 26 games of experience under his belt, way to early to crown him king at this point.

[Ricky Vaughn]

Pretty much agree with these !st 5. I would have to put Walker at #4 and move the 2-4 up a notch just because 26 games and 115 PA's. Let him perform that way through 400+ PA at high A and I'll be all for putting him #1.

[Nashvilletwin]

No doubt - those are our top five.  Buxton appropriately not on the top 20 list, but if he were to regain 120 or so game health, he surely would be added.

Would we be upset if we were to wake up on the trade deadline in ‘25 and our 13 position players on the active roster were:

Starters: Lewis (3B), Correa (SS), Lee (2B), Julien (1B), Jeffers (C), Jenkins (CF), Rodriguez (LF), Wallner (RF), Buxton (DH)

Bench: Camargo, and choose three of Martin, Kiriloff, Severino, Miller, Schobel, Miranda, Larnach, an additional FA, etc.

Is this where a true multi-year open window could begin for a cash constrained mid/small market team (coming off two straight division titles in ‘23 and ‘24)?

 

[Fatbat]

@Nashvilletwin thats where we win WS’s if those guys are all that and more. It explains why the FO isn’t chasing trades or downslope FA’s either. The future is incredibly bright!! 
I see the foresight in this list and look forward to see how it changes next year. So many young guys in the top 20!

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I like the top five a lot, and I agree that #’s 1 - 3 could easily be juggled.   It doesn’t matter though.  They are all very nice to have.  

I think there has to be some concern (as you voiced) that Brooks Lee is just a guy with a solid floor but not that much upside.  He “can’t miss” but can he ever be an All-star?  In order to warrant the kind of love that Twins fans are giving him, he needs to really tear up a level or two.  Maybe it’s this year, but if he’s going to be a big star, he should be doing that against minor league competition as (many of) those will be his peers someday in the majors.  I know he’s young, but future stars often put up video game numbers in A and AA ball.  Don’t misunderstand.  Solid is good, but I’m hoping for a real breakout that makes him worthy of the adulation.  

[roger]

Enjoyed this series, Nick.  Thanks.

Can understand those comments about why Jenkins shouldn't be #1.  But I also understand your defense of him as your top pick.  Only question I have is when will we see him at Target Field?  Could it be late 2024?

All of us can quibble with your ranking.  Only changes I would make are: 1) Would include Buxton, even if at the late teens; and 2) Would have AK higher than 17th.  Expect he will be the player in 2024 we have expected since joining the Twins back whenever.

[miracleb]

Unfortunately, the pitching looks very "thin" on this list.  Other than Pablo, I am not confident anywhere on this list is a #2 starter for a World Series type team.

[miracleb]

I also would struggle to put anyone in front of Royce Lewis......he is going to be fun to watch for the next decade!

[tony&rodney]

Fun lists to see and interesting view of the Twins system. I cannot disagree with how players are ranked on this list as the criteria is mostly a future value judgment and speculative exercise. Prospect and system value lists always draw my attention. Jeffers has a surprising position.

It is interesting to me, however, that many fans are more future focused when discussing options for the coming season. The results of looking ahead often diminish the actual accomplishments and skills of current players. Memories of Fernando Rodney, Michael Restovich, and dozens of others always come to mind.

I must admit that I have been impressed by the seemingly universal fabulous acclaim for the skills and potential of Walker Jenkins. He is seen as being a superior prospect to where current Twins such as Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis stood once upon a time and is seen as clearly above Brooks Lee as a prospect in terms of talent. Will he be a more athletic Bryce Harper? Heady stuff. 

[JD Green]

Nice job Nick. Now that we got to #1, will be fun to read this backwards from 1 to 20. Like where you have Buxton. Still waiting for him to prove everybody wrong consistently. 

[Nick Nelson]

13 minutes ago, JD Green said:

Nice job Nick. Now that we got to #1, will be fun to read this backwards from 1 to 20. Like where you have Buxton. Still waiting for him to prove everybody wrong consistently. 

Buxton is my favorite Twins player but in the name of objectivity I couldn't bring myself to include him in this top 20. He wasn't even close to be honest. I still don't think his contract is any kind of Josh Donaldson-esque disaster but I don't know how anyone could argue he has positive asset value at this moment in time, with so much uncertainty and coming off the season he just had. A major fall from last year's No. 1 finisher on this list. I'll discuss that decision in a little more depth in next week's recap.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, roger said:

Can understand those comments about why Jenkins shouldn't be #1.  But I also understand your defense of him as your top pick.  Only question I have is when will we see him at Target Field?  Could it be late 2024?

Not impossible! If he performs like he did in his debut it's going to be hard to hold him back. Reaching the majors at 19 would be pretty wild and could set him on a Hall of Fame track, of course. 

[Jocko87]

17 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Not impossible! If he performs like he did in his debut it's going to be hard to hold him back. Reaching the majors at 19 would be pretty wild and could set him on a Hall of Fame track, of course. 

Doubt we see him in Target Field in 24 but we should get a big chunk at AA and still be delighted with that.  St Paul certainly in the mix for a taste.  Crazy that all the top 5 from last years draft are basically universal top 15-20 prospects.  Twins are solidly in the window so if he's ready, they will be ready.

[Jocko87]

26 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Buxton is my favorite Twins player but in the name of objectivity I couldn't bring myself to include him in this top 20. He wasn't even close to be honest. I still don't think his contract is any kind of Josh Donaldson-esque disaster but I don't know how anyone could argue he has positive asset value at this moment in time, with so much uncertainty and coming off the season he just had. A major fall from last year's No. 1 finisher on this list. I'll discuss that decision in a little more depth in next week's recap.

Agreed the Buxton spot on the list deserves its own write up.  I disagree with leaving him off this list. 

If we are talking about indispensable for building a champion, this team will not win a championship without Buxton performing at level or an outside asset providing that performance.  There isn't an in house asset that gets there until Jenkins.  He's the most important cog in that how he goes, this roster goes.  That there are obvious concerns and a higher risk of losing him doesn't make him less indispensable.

I get the injury concerns, I really do, but then why would Kirilloff be here ahead of Buxton?  Cheaper?  OK but that's not nearly as important as being on the field.  Would we leave Edwin Diaz off the list for the Mets for missing the year with an injury?  Certainly not.  Your recent writings about how much performance is still there for Buxton when he plays makes the case that when he's back on the field he's still a game changer.  It's not Donaldson in that with Donaldson, the top end is gone and wasn't nearly as good to begin with.

Marco Raya is a delicate flower that has never pitched more than 65 innings in a year.  He's young and has promise but if he's an indispensable part of a championship roster within 3 years I'll delightedly eat a hat.  13 and ahead of Varland and even Festa is a stretch.  For purposes of this discussion, which is not a prospect ranking, Buxton is miles ahead of him.

[Mike Sixel]

Jenkins is the number 1 pick in many drafts, if not most. That value is insane. So I get this. If I was certain Lewis could play more than 60 games a year, I'd likely have him 1, since he's in the majors....but he's been hurt three years in a row now.

I'm shocked the Jeffers "haters" aren't here yet, but I agree he's in the top 10 (nor sure where exactly).

[jmlease1]

44 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Not impossible! If he performs like he did in his debut it's going to be hard to hold him back. Reaching the majors at 19 would be pretty wild and could set him on a Hall of Fame track, of course. 

I mean, if he debuts at 20 it'll mean he's been on one hell of a heater and looking like a potential Hall of Famer...or utter disaster has struck the Twins from an injury perspective and they decided to throw him in the deep end and see if he sinks. (but the latter is pretty unlikely, because regardless of what goes on with the MLB club i think they're going to be protective of Jenkins)

i think without the injury issues, Royce is an easy #1 and if Lopez were still on pre-arb contract numbers he'd be the guy (from purely an ASSET perspective) but I can see a case for any of the 3. I try not to get too crazy over teenagers just hitting A-ball, but Walker Jenkins makes it hard. Yes, it's a tiny little sample, but the FSL can sap the life out of even great bats and Jenkins didn't even blink.

[Nick Nelson]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm shocked the Jeffers "haters" aren't here yet, but I agree he's in the top 10 (nor sure where exactly).

I'm also surprised there hasn't been more disagreement raised around Jeffers and his ranking. I went back and forth on him a lot. But I'm a huge believer in the value of catchers, beyond what is statistically evident, and I think he + Vazquez had an underrated impact on the team's pitching results last year.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

I'm also surprised there hasn't been more disagreement raised around Jeffers and his ranking. I went back and forth on him a lot. But I'm a huge believer in the value of catchers, beyond what is statistically evident, and I think he + Vazquez had an underrated impact on the team's pitching results last year.

Jeffers is a unicorn. A catcher that can provide D with a bat.  I think the D and bat both will get better.  Ya hold onto that.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

I'm also surprised there hasn't been more disagreement raised around Jeffers and his ranking. I went back and forth on him a lot. But I'm a huge believer in the value of catchers, beyond what is statistically evident, and I think he + Vazquez had an underrated impact on the team's pitching results last year.

The Twins really did receive outstanding work from the two catchers last season. While I would not put Jeffers so high on any list, I do believe that catching is severely underrated. The Vazquez-Jeffers combo worked really well and I would expect Baldelli to continue to alternate them this season. Don't fix what isn't broken. It would be nice if the Twins could get some solid work from Jair Camargo this year as well. We cannot expect another year where only two catchers are used in an entire year.

[Fatbat]

6 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I like the top five a lot, and I agree that #’s 1 - 3 could easily be juggled.   It doesn’t matter though.  They are all very nice to have.  

I think there has to be some concern (as you voiced) that Brooks Lee is just a guy with a solid floor but not that much upside.  He “can’t miss” but can he ever be an All-star?  In order to warrant the kind of love that Twins fans are giving him, he needs to really tear up a level or two.  Maybe it’s this year, but if he’s going to be a big star, he should be doing that against minor league competition as (many of) those will be his peers someday in the majors.  I know he’s young, but future stars often put up video game numbers in A and AA ball.  Don’t misunderstand.  Solid is good, but I’m hoping for a real breakout that makes him worthy of the adulation.  

Lee has only had 1 full year of the high minors.  At age 22 in the high minors, who has ever put up video game #s for a whole season fresh out of college? 

[Fatbat]

6 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I like the top five a lot, and I agree that #’s 1 - 3 could easily be juggled.   It doesn’t matter though.  They are all very nice to have.  

I think there has to be some concern (as you voiced) that Brooks Lee is just a guy with a solid floor but not that much upside.  He “can’t miss” but can he ever be an All-star?  In order to warrant the kind of love that Twins fans are giving him, he needs to really tear up a level or two.  Maybe it’s this year, but if he’s going to be a big star, he should be doing that against minor league competition as (many of) those will be his peers someday in the majors.  I know he’s young, but future stars often put up video game numbers in A and AA ball.  Don’t misunderstand.  Solid is good, but I’m hoping for a real breakout that makes him worthy of the adulation.  

Lee has only had 1 full year of the high minors.  At age 22 in the high minors, who has ever put up video game #s for a whole season fresh out of college? 
****+apologies for the duplicate ********

Edited January 5, 2024 by Fatbat

[Eris]

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

 

It is interesting to me, however, that many fans are more future focused when discussing options for the coming season. The results of looking ahead often diminish the actual accomplishments and skills of current players. 

The hope of a better future is part of the joy of being a baseball fan. 
 

I do understand what you are saying though. We have Walker Jenkins inked in as being more valuable then Byron Buxton, but Buxton (or pick some other player such as Correa, Lopez or Julien) is much more likely to lead our Twins to the World Series this year. 

[Rosterman]

I guess Buxton is #21. Fair guess, as he will be around for the next few years.

If you start looking at the Twins prospect list, there are quite a few names that are very hopeful, as much as many of the ones that have yet to make the team.

Seevrino may make us forget that we traded Strand to the Reds. Canterino will have to be pushed to the rotation of the pen. But, like so many (Enlow), may never make the cut.

In the #20-30 range are names like Griffin Jax and Kody Fundeburk, both of whom have team control and can develop as strong arms in the pen for years to come. Of course, they could become another Alcala, hoping for another year with the Twins.

And how the mighty change. A couple of years back, names like Miranda, Larnach, Gordon and Balazovic would be on this list. All four still remain Twins, and still have potential. But shows how even prospects that do make the majors will struggle to stay, their only strength being that they MAY be better than what is on-the-field in St. Paul, for now.

Once again, looks like the Twins are playing to win in a weak division, rather than dominating in a weak division and being competitive in all play against the East and West. Will it sell tickets? The minor league pipeline does look solid to put new names on the roster as well as a solid core for seasaons to come.

 

[nclahammer]

Well done TD from top to bottom, excellent read and information.

[ashbury]

"Most valuable player assets."   "Through the scope of team-building."  "The vision of building a champion." 

So the premise seems not so vast as to demand a dynasty, nor so narrow as to say we're going for it in 2024.  Vague but bounded.

I know the intent isn't to belabor the absence of Buxton, until Nick publishes another article on that particular topic, but I have to say that if the goal is to set up the Twins for a championship sometime in the next several years, several years of Buxton (even with the high risk of injury) moves the needle more for me than one year of Kepler, for example.  I don't see Buxton in the top 10, but probably somewhere in the high teens.

[Jocko87]

21 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Seevrino may make us forget that we traded Strand to the Reds.

I had already forgotten.

[Blyleven2011]

I'm totally shocked that the TD voters didn't recognize that pitching wins games ...

With the Twins starting pitching the best by far in 2023  , has everyone forgotten how bad the pitching was in 2021 and 2022 ...

Pitching was the best asset in 2023 ...

Ratings are definitely  overrated  ...

Lopez was and will be again our best asset in 2024 ...

Lee knocking on the door  to the bigs and could be an asset this season and Jenkins still about a year away is an asset but not for the 2024 Twins season  ...

Pitching won games for us last year , if it wasn't for the great pitching we would not have won the division  with a mediocre  lineup  ...

I am totally shocked the TD voters didn't see this ..

[ashbury]

25 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I'm totally shocked that the TD voters didn't recognize that pitching wins games ...

Three teams won 100 or more games in 2023.  Those three ranked #7, #13, and #15 in the majors in ERA.

They ranked #1, #2, and #7 in runs scored.

Make of that what you will.