Analyzing the Pablo Lopez Extension

18 minutes ago, Dman said:

All I can say is that I am relieved they signed him.  I was afraid he might not sign an extension and the Twins would only have him for two years after giving up a really good bat to get him.  Also as others have mentioned with Gray, Mahle and Maeda all free agents the end of this year it was going to create a lot of uncertainty for the future rotation.  

With Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Varland and Paddack they should have a solid staff for next year and if they can extend Gray that would help even more.  The Twins have a top 2 and maybe more depending on how some arms develop.  I am really glad they got this deal done early. Now we just need to hope for good health.

Next year SWR and Festa will also be in the mix. Not as high of a floor as this year’s rotation but possibly just as much upside.

Yes.  Excellent signing.  Hopefully he stays healthy and productive

"The Twins are betting on Lopez to continue his breakout performance while staying healthy. Do you feel the Twins should hand out more long-term contracts for pitchers? Is Lopez a good long-term investment? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion."

Seems like it a crap shoot when factoring in health on any available pitcher and a 4-year deal minimizes the risk about as much as you can hope for to get a high-end pitcher locked up. So yes, I think Lopez is a good to really good investment for the cub. Sonny Gray seems to me to be a smart extension if he's interested. Today, based on what he's done so far this season, something in the 2 years 30-40 mil range.

I'm a fan of Meada and Mahle, but they are not performing like the others and would be a little gun shy about them right now. If they go out and have a career year the QO is still an option. Although neither may accept, at least you get a draft pick back to compensate for the prospects moved. (Mainly about Mahle on that)

One last thing, like this season with a fair share of prospects looking for a spot on the MLB roster it may be in the team's best interest to have more openings for the guys in AA and AAA this season. If you're looking at 8 deep in starters. One more extension makes sense. two not so much.

I personally have always felt that 4 years should be the max on any SP.  The risk is just too high past that.

This is a solid contract for a 1-2 type pitcher.  Factor in you are getting his "prime" years and the other factors mentioned in the article, the signing looks extremely strong right now.

I heart this deal. It keeps the rotation solid. It's cost controlled for next year which won't put them out of the running for a high end free agent pursuit. 

This is the exact kind of deal I have been saying Twins should be offering for pitchers.  3 year deals basically, as 1 year they had him anyway.  So really they signed a 3 year deal.  Most long term deals for pitchers you only get 2 good years out of the contract.  Many times on the front end, but sometimes on back end after injuries and adjustments to being older.  Yes, HOF pitchers are outliers of that, so people can throw Cole, Verlander, and Scherzer as outliers, but I would throw dozens of others wasted long term deals that hardly work out for the team.  

These short term deals lock up a guy, but limits the risk for the team.  The writer talks about Berrios, and my guess Twins offered something similar to him, but he wanted the 6 to 7 year deal, not a 3 year deal. I am happy to see they locked up Lopez and only had to sign him through 31.  

I wonder what we'd have given him if he'd pitched like he did in his first four starts last year.

The deal for Pablo Lopez makes sense because he added another pitch. His new sweeper is a wipe out K pitch, which gives him a solid third option when he's got 2 strikes on a guy. This means he can pitch "within himself," rather than trying to blow a fastball by the hitter or over-throw some other off-speed pitch. Lopez today looks like a mature star pitcher. I fully expect him to pile up strikeouts this season. Should be interesting to see if he or Joe Ryan get more K's this year. 

"Minnesota’s current front office has avoided long-term deals, especially for pitchers."

I wonder if we need to alter our definition of current front office.  Since Joe came on board, and Jim stepped more into the backround, we have done things (Carlos Correa?) we weren't known for throughout our history.  Major signings of star players, increased payroll, a major trade of a team/organization favorite, etc.,  and not coincidentally right after the announcement of Joe coming into his own.  Am I the only one wondering if this is the beginning of a new direction in our desire to be competitive in more than just a mediocre division?  I am not exactly betting the mortgage just yet, but it is a very hopeful sign.  I, for one, am going to stay tuned for future developments.  

Lopez has looked very good and looks to be worth the investment  ...

We should be annalizing  Lopez  against berrios  , he signed  a 7 year contract extension  and so far had a good second half in 2021 , a lousy 2022 and he is off to a poor start  in 2023 all with Toronto  ...

Annalize that ...