Analyzing the Pablo Lopez Extension

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota’s current front office regime has tended to shy away from long-term commitments to starting pitchers. What makes Pablo Lopez different, and what does this mean for the future of the Twins?

Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Word broke early on Monday morning that the Twins and Pablo Lopez were putting the finishing touches on a four-year, $73.5 million contract extension. Lopez was under team control through the 2024 season through the arbitration process, but this deal will buy out his final arbitration year and give the Twins an additional three years of team control. It’s a substantial deal for a franchise that has tended not to sign pitchers to long-term deals. 

Minnesota’s current front office has avoided long-term deals, especially for pitchers. In 2018, the Twins signed Addison Reed to a two-year, $16.75 million contract. He had been one of baseball’s most consistent relievers but struggled with the Twins. In 55 appearances, he posted a 4.50 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and a career-low 7.1 K/9. He failed to make an appearance with the Twins in 2019.  

Other multi-year deals for pitchers include Michael Pineda and Chris Paddack under the current regime. In both cases, the player was returning from injury, which can make it easier to agree to a team friendly deal. Pineda signed for two-years, $20 million leading into the 2020 season after pitching in 2019 in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. Earlier this year, the Twins and Paddack agreed to a three-year, $12.5 million extension. The deal bought out his final two years of arbitration eligibility and what would have been his first free agent season (2025). There is a chance that Paddack pitches for the Twins in 2023, and the extension puts him in the team's plans for the next two years. 

Before Lopez, the Twins had an opportunity to work out a long-term deal with Jose Berrios. It seemed like an opportunity for Minnesota to extend a homegrown pitcher that had performed at an All-Star level for most of his career. Instead, the Twins traded him to Toronto for Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson. The Blue Jays signed Berrios to a seven-year, $131 million contract entering his final year of team control. He’s struggled over the last two seasons with a 5.45 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP, so it appears the Twins avoided a declining player. 

So, what makes Lopez different in the eyes of the Twins? Minnesota’s starting rotation will have plenty of holes to fill next season, with Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda scheduled to be free agents. Lopez’s deal is significantly shorter than Berrios, which doesn’t put as much risk on the team. He will be under team control through his age-31 season, which still allows him to cash in on the free-agent market, especially if he continues to pitch well. 

Lopez has pitched like an ace since the Twins traded for him this winter. In 26 innings, he has posted a 1.73 ERA with 33 strikeouts. Entering the season, Lopez was known as a fastball and changeup pitcher, but he added a sweeping slider to his pitching arsenal this spring. His new pitch has helped him increase his strikeout rate from 8.6 K/9 to 11.4 K/9. He will be at the top of Minnesota’s rotation in 2024 with Joe Ryan and Chris Paddack. 

He has fought through injuries throughout his career, so there is some risk from the Twins’ perspective. Previously, he missed time with a shoulder strain and right rotator cuff strain. During the 2022 season, he pitched a career-high 180 innings, but he had never pitched more than 111 innings before that breakout performance. 

By all accounts, Lopez has been a great addition to the Twins clubhouse. He’s a team leader and provides a positive attitude for other players, coaches, and media members. The Twins named him the Opening Day starter and many consider him the team’s best pitcher, especially with how well he has performed so far in 2023. 

The Twins are betting on Lopez to continue his breakout performance while staying healthy. Do you feel the Twins should hand out more long-term contracts for pitchers? Is Lopez a good long-term investment? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Dman]

All I can say is that I am relieved they signed him.  I was afraid he might not sign an extension and the Twins would only have him for two years after giving up a really good bat to get him.  Also as others have mentioned with Gray, Mahle and Maeda all free agents the end of this year it was going to create a lot of uncertainty for the future rotation.  

With Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Varland and Paddack they should have a solid staff for next year and if they can extend Gray that would help even more.  The Twins have a top 2 and maybe more depending on how some arms develop.  I am really glad they got this deal done early. Now we just need to hope for good health.

[Sean.h]

18 minutes ago, Dman said:

All I can say is that I am relieved they signed him.  I was afraid he might not sign an extension and the Twins would only have him for two years after giving up a really good bat to get him.  Also as others have mentioned with Gray, Mahle and Maeda all free agents the end of this year it was going to create a lot of uncertainty for the future rotation.  

With Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Varland and Paddack they should have a solid staff for next year and if they can extend Gray that would help even more.  The Twins have a top 2 and maybe more depending on how some arms develop.  I am really glad they got this deal done early. Now we just need to hope for good health.

Next year SWR and Festa will also be in the mix. Not as high of a floor as this year’s rotation but possibly just as much upside.

[Whitey333]

Yes.  Excellent signing.  Hopefully he stays healthy and productive

[weitz41]

"The Twins are betting on Lopez to continue his breakout performance while staying healthy. Do you feel the Twins should hand out more long-term contracts for pitchers? Is Lopez a good long-term investment? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion."

Seems like it a crap shoot when factoring in health on any available pitcher and a 4-year deal minimizes the risk about as much as you can hope for to get a high-end pitcher locked up. So yes, I think Lopez is a good to really good investment for the cub. Sonny Gray seems to me to be a smart extension if he's interested. Today, based on what he's done so far this season, something in the 2 years 30-40 mil range.

I'm a fan of Meada and Mahle, but they are not performing like the others and would be a little gun shy about them right now. If they go out and have a career year the QO is still an option. Although neither may accept, at least you get a draft pick back to compensate for the prospects moved. (Mainly about Mahle on that)

One last thing, like this season with a fair share of prospects looking for a spot on the MLB roster it may be in the team's best interest to have more openings for the guys in AA and AAA this season. If you're looking at 8 deep in starters. One more extension makes sense. two not so much.

[Jocko87]

Crazy that this is considered a long term deal but for the Twins it is.  They should still be wary of the 7 year variety but this is right in the sweet spot of risk/reward that they should do every time.  Had there been someone similar in the org previously we would likely have seen something like this before. 

[JD-TWINS]

Lopez signing is a great piece of FO work over the past 4-5 months!

I have typed here 3-4 times now, sign Gray ASAP for 2 years with an $8-$10/year raise. It may be steep but the 2 yr. term reduces x team risk a bunch.

Let Mahle walk.

Maybe, give Maeda an offer as long reliever for $6-$7M range. Let’s see if he keeps getting guys out.

We’ll have money after Gallo - Kepler - Mahle - Polanco - Taylor - Solano……about $47M total……..replace the 6 guys above with youth at $4.8M total. Spend $13M on Pablo & $10M on Gray. Still leaves $19M to get creative with on other guys.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I personally have always felt that 4 years should be the max on any SP.  The risk is just too high past that.

This is a solid contract for a 1-2 type pitcher.  Factor in you are getting his "prime" years and the other factors mentioned in the article, the signing looks extremely strong right now.

[August J Gloop]

I heart this deal. It keeps the rotation solid. It's cost controlled for next year which won't put them out of the running for a high end free agent pursuit. 

[Trov]

This is the exact kind of deal I have been saying Twins should be offering for pitchers.  3 year deals basically, as 1 year they had him anyway.  So really they signed a 3 year deal.  Most long term deals for pitchers you only get 2 good years out of the contract.  Many times on the front end, but sometimes on back end after injuries and adjustments to being older.  Yes, HOF pitchers are outliers of that, so people can throw Cole, Verlander, and Scherzer as outliers, but I would throw dozens of others wasted long term deals that hardly work out for the team.  

These short term deals lock up a guy, but limits the risk for the team.  The writer talks about Berrios, and my guess Twins offered something similar to him, but he wanted the 6 to 7 year deal, not a 3 year deal. I am happy to see they locked up Lopez and only had to sign him through 31.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

This is an outstanding signing that is easy to get excited about.  He appears so far to be as good as (maybe better than) advertised and this deal locks him in through the next four years, which should really be his prime.  I think it is fantastic that the deal could work out nicely for both sides -- for the Twins for obvious reasons, and for Lopez, who will get to test free agency at 31 years old and likely get another good contract.  Hey!  Who knows?  Maybe that's with the Twins too.

The fun part so far about this trade is that we are delighted in having Pedro Lopez and the Marlins are equally thrilled about having Arraez on their team.  Got to give up something to get something!

 

[twinstalker]

I wonder what we'd have given him if he'd pitched like he did in his first four starts last year.

[h2oface]

Compared to the last long term pitching contract the Twins cajoled successfully, Dobnak's deal, it is quite generous. I wonder what would have happened if he hadn't signed it, and wanted more? I mean, Arraez was traded for him after he didn't like his extension offer, and those that don't like the extension offer don't seem to last long on the roster. I'm glad he liked it. At least I think I am, after just 4 games - If he pitches anywhere close to these games, and stays off the IL, it will surely be a winner.

[jimbo92107]

The deal for Pablo Lopez makes sense because he added another pitch. His new sweeper is a wipe out K pitch, which gives him a solid third option when he's got 2 strikes on a guy. This means he can pitch "within himself," rather than trying to blow a fastball by the hitter or over-throw some other off-speed pitch. Lopez today looks like a mature star pitcher. I fully expect him to pile up strikeouts this season. Should be interesting to see if he or Joe Ryan get more K's this year. 

[Mark G]

"Minnesota’s current front office has avoided long-term deals, especially for pitchers."

I wonder if we need to alter our definition of current front office.  Since Joe came on board, and Jim stepped more into the backround, we have done things (Carlos Correa?) we weren't known for throughout our history.  Major signings of star players, increased payroll, a major trade of a team/organization favorite, etc.,  and not coincidentally right after the announcement of Joe coming into his own.  Am I the only one wondering if this is the beginning of a new direction in our desire to be competitive in more than just a mediocre division?  I am not exactly betting the mortgage just yet, but it is a very hopeful sign.  I, for one, am going to stay tuned for future developments.  

[h2oface]

13 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

The fun part so far about this trade is that we are delighted in having Pedro Lopez and the Marlins are equally thrilled about having Arraez on their team.  Got to give up something to get something!

Pedro ....Pablo..... We will come to know him by name, soon to be a first name basis. 😇

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 hours ago, h2oface said:

Pedro ....Pablo..... We will come to know him by name, soon to be a first name basis. 😇

Argh.  Yes!   

[Dave Overlund]

There has been a lot of talk on TD about how the Correa deal changed the narrative surrounding the ownership and front office. However, from my perspective, the Correa deal only got the Twins to 17th in payroll, which is almost exactly where they have been for the last 10-15 years. 

On the other hand, this deal makes me think we may be seeing a change in philosophy from the FO/ownership as Cody described so well in this summary. Take some risk for a potentially huge reward on a solid, established pitcher right before his earning power potentially skyrockets.

I also credit Lopez for not chasing every last available cent and agreeing to a deal that works for both sides. 10/10 deal, even if it blows up it is the right thing to do for the Twins. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

8 hours ago, Mark G said:

"Minnesota’s current front office has avoided long-term deals, especially for pitchers."

I wonder if we need to alter our definition of current front office.  Since Joe came on board, and Jim stepped more into the backround, we have done things (Carlos Correa?) we weren't known for throughout our history.  Major signings of star players, increased payroll, a major trade of a team/organization favorite, etc.,  and not coincidentally right after the announcement of Joe coming into his own.  Am I the only one wondering if this is the beginning of a new direction in our desire to be competitive in more than just a mediocre division?  I am not exactly betting the mortgage just yet, but it is a very hopeful sign.  I, for one, am going to stay tuned for future developments.  

I think your conclusion is valid. 

[Blyleven2011]

Lopez has looked very good and looks to be worth the investment  ...

We should be annalizing  Lopez  against berrios  , he signed  a 7 year contract extension  and so far had a good second half in 2021 , a lousy 2022 and he is off to a poor start  in 2023 all with Toronto  ...

Annalize that ...