How Likely Are the Twins to Extend Their Veteran Starting Pitchers?

miracleb · March 13

What the Twins do is 99% dependent on how their "other" pitchers do. Ober, Ryan, Winder, etc. If it doesn't look like an easy path to 6 solid starters....then one of these will be extended. If Gray, Mahle, and Maeda end up being too expensive to re-sign, then that means we probably made it to the World Series! LOL!!

Karbo · March 13

All 3 have question marks. IMO, wait until at least end of May and see how they, and the kids (SWR, Varland, and others ) look. With the thinking of the staff is Ober can hold up to a full season as a starter, SWR and Varland and Winder in the wings and even more in the low minors, Could we see some trade deadline type of deals?

old nurse · March 13

The extension would not be overly team friendly deals. They also should not be overpays. If the team can figure out that number there will be extensions. Around 4/70 for Mahle, 3/60 if Gray is having a good year

Cory Engelhardt · March 13

Here is to hoping for a Mahle extension!

Dman · March 13

The Twins don't have a history of extending pitchers so it seems unlikely they get a deal done unless one of those players want to take a discount. Kenta seems the most likely player to be in the Twins range financially. He doesn't throw all that hard and seems to have a hard time not dropping off during a full season. Not sure what his Market value will be but I assume in range for the Twins if they want him back and he wants to stay with the Twins.

Gray is a wild card for me. If he performs well again this year I think he is the kind of pitcher that could get a three year deal with a fairly high AAV. He is no ace but he appears to be a consistent performer that could bolster any teams rotation. He might be worth the QO hard to say but I think it will be tough for the Twins to sign him.

If Mahle stays healthy and pitches a pretty normal season for him I can't see the Twins retaining him. He is young enough for a 5 to 6 year deal at signicant AAV (i.e. Jose Berrios). If the shoulder issue pops up then maybe the Twins have a chance but if there are injury concerns then why go after him?

The Twins don't like long contracts for pitchers. I don't know that any of these guys other than Mahle would get a long contract so I think they could extend the other two if they want to invest the money there. They broke the mold somewhat with Correa. Maybe they find a way to hang onto one or two of these guys. I think it will depend on how well they pitch this year before we will know.

stringer bell · March 13

Extending pitchers in their mid-to-late 30s is risky. I’d be much more inclined to extend Mahle through his early 30s than with Gray or Maeda.

wabene · March 13

I see the qualifying offer as a strong possibility. There is also Lopez to consider, he has been impressive in many ways so far.

roger · March 13

Expect the Twins will sign at least one of this trio to some type of extension. Who will depend on their respective health and success during spring training and early this season.

Also hopeful that they extend Lopex prior to the trading deadline. He may be the most important to extend and the one they could go a bit longer on.

wsnydes · March 13

29 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Extending pitchers in their mid-to-late 30s is risky. I’d be much more inclined to extend Mahle through his early 30s than with Gray or Maeda.

My thoughts exactly. I'd be more likely to extend Gray than Maeda on age alone. I really want nothing to do with a Maeda extension unless it's extremely team friendly. I can at least entertain the idea of extending Gray, but I'm not sure that I'd do it.

terrydactyls · March 13

These opinions are all contingent on the player performing well during the first half of the season and that they are pain free.

Mahle - Offer him a five-year extension.

Gray - Offer him a Qualifying Offer.

Maeda - Offer him a Qualifying Offer if he wants to be a starter. If he is agreeable to becoming a full-time relief pitcher, offer him a two-year extension.

Bigfork Twins Guy · March 13

Since the Twins do not like long-term pitcher contracts, and all three of these show some signs of injury risk, I suspect that they will try to go with shorter (3-years or less) term contracts. Because of that strategy, they will need to pony up on the AAV in order to entice them to sign.

My guess is that they extend at least one of these pitchers and that it will be Mahle based on his age.

farmerguychris · March 13

My guess would be that other than Mahle, they really don't want to have to extend them because their young drafted guys are pitching so well and are ready for larger roles in 2024. That would be great, but I would be ok with also extending Gray if he can stay healthy this year, for at least 2 more years.

gunnarthor · March 13

Mahle is the only one I'd consider but it really depends on his health. Shoulder fatigue is scary. The other two will not be back. (Frankly, I think the Twins will be out of it at the deadline and trade guys like Gray/Maeta if they are healthy).

I could see the Twins trying to extend Ryan on an insanely team-friendly deal but I don't think his agent would allow that to happen.

Brandon · March 13

What the extensions could look like assuming normal year and solid health going into the offseason:

Mahle 5 year 110 - 130 million

Gray 3 year 63-72 million

Maeda 2 year 24 - 32 million

i could see the Twins signing one of these guys. Not two because of payroll limitations unless we make it to game 6 or 7 of World Series and get all that extra usable revenue.

Fire Dan Gladden · March 13

13 minutes ago, Brandon said:

What the extensions could look like assuming normal year and solid health going into the offseason:

Mahle 5 year 110 - 130 million

Gray 3 year 63-72 million

Maeda 2 year 24 - 32 million

i could see the Twins signing one of these guys. Not two because of payroll limitations unless we make it to game 6 or 7 of World Series and get all that extra usable revenue.

I think a Mahle extension is a given, with the dollars and term really based on health and performance. Your numbers are not outlandish, but probably on the high end of an offer.

There are still a question on how much Gray truly wants to be here. He will likely be able to name is 2-3 year contract with just about any team.

Maeda could be interesting. If he has a solid year, and wants to continue as a SP, will the Twins bite.

I do not think the effectiveness of the young guys will have a huge impact here. With pitching trending towards having a whole bunch of four inning pitchers, you really can't have too much quality.

tony&rodney · March 13

The Twins have P. Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack for next season. Varland, SWR, or another could fill the fifth spot. There is always a chance that there is a trade for a pitcher or two that happens at the trade deadline or next offseason. Then there is the qualifying offer which brings back a draft choice or a pitcher hoping to be better in 2024.

Maeda might be open to a two year offer and he could still be effective, which means there may be interest on the part of the Twins at the right price. I doubt whether Gray or Mahle are signing for the same as their current deals. They will be looking for AAV of $20 million plus per year for multiple years. The Twins say no. I'm thinking the Twins make another trade before signing either Mahle or Gray. I do think there will be discussions on an extension for P. Lopez and a pitcher acquired via trade.

Cris E · March 13

The Twins didn't pick these guys out of the phone book, they were chosen because of their years of remaining control. Expect one or two to get deals (Mahle and/or Lopez depending on health and performance) and then an appraisal of how the younger kids are coming along will dictate how hard they go after Grey and Meada. Sonny has been very effective for a long time and there's no guarantee that our youth will end up any better or healthier than he is. After after 2022 Maeda would have to come pretty cheap to justify creating another Bunde/Archer shaped spot in the rotation. But I don't think he's going to be durable or efficient enough to be a regular six inning guy so I expect us to have better options when it comes time to review his deal.

TwinsDr2021 · March 13

"Minnesota's front office is still waiting on its pitching pipeline to produce consistent big-league-caliber pitchers. Because of this, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have dipped into the team's farm system to trade for veteran pitchers to add to the big-league roster."

The Twins pipeline is almost 28 year old Ober (who is expected to start the year in the minors), 26 year old often injured Winder also expected to start the year in the minors, 25 year old Varland also expected to start the year in the minors, 24 year old Jordan Balazovic coming off a terrible year and has a broken jaw, 22 year old Prielipp still a couple of years away, a 20 year old Raya, 23 year old Festa and SWR. There are a couple there with promise but I am not sure bring guys up in their mid and late 20's is a pipeline.

On the second part who has the Twins traded away that have dipped into their farm system (pipeline) Ynoa and Gil are both almost 25 and still not contributing and Petty and Hajjar are still in minors.

As for extending these guys, we won't know until at least a few months into the season if any of them are worth it.

chpettit19 · March 13

As of today I'd predict a QO for Mahle and Gray. Twins willing to pay the $20 mil for 1 year if they accept, or take their draft pick in return if they move on. Would expect them to touch base with Maeda on an extension if he comes back and performs to his career norms. Probably looking at a 1 year + option type deal they'd want with him.

weitz41 · March 13

If a before the end of spring training extension, probably Mahle is the one. He'll want 5+ years, the FO will want 3. So something in the 4-6 year range at $20-$25 mil AAV should get it done. If no spring training extensions, Mahle and Gray will get QO's, turn them down and sign elsewhere. Maeda I could see resigning after a healthy season, but not extending before the season.

In my opinion, extending one of Mahle or Gray is a wise more. Then try to do the same with Lopez and Ryan. Having some consistency in the starting 5 is what good/great teams have, not revolving doors.

Rod Carews Birthday · March 13

I think Mahle could get a possible extension for probably no more than 4 years, which means the $$ will need to be pretty big on an AAV basis. Something like 4/$95 might be in the ballpark. Maeda and Gray are too old (and I don't think Gray is enamored with the Twins). If there is no Mahle extension, I could definitely see a qualifying offer for both Mahle and Gray, but probably not for Maeda.

The pitcher(s) that I think are truly the most likely candidates are Lopez and Ryan. I think Lopez is young enough and promising enough (and they gave up a lot to get him) that they will want to lock him up for a while. Not sure on $$ because the resume isn't completely there yet, but he probably has more potential than any of them -- maybe 5/$125 (or maybe that's not enough, especially if he is very good this year). Ryan also doesn't have the long standing resume and is under team control for a while, which means they will try to get a more team friendly deal -- more than he would get through his league minimum and arbitration years, but less than true market value.

At the end of the day, however, it depends on how much these pitchers want to go to free agency to chase the money vs. how much they would like to remain in MN (see Berrios, Jose). I think the tide may be changing a bit on free agents wanting to come to MN, as the Twins certainly seem to be trying very hard to build a winning team.

Twinsoholic · March 13

The Twins got Paddock to sign a contract extension, so they do try to extend pitchers. If Mahle is healthy and does not sign an extension, then make a qualifying offer to him. If he accepts, then the odds are pretty good that the Twins will benefit in the 2024 season. If he declines, there is the extra draft pick. The Twins could gamble some more with a qualifying offer to Gray as well. They would only be incurring the cost for one year if he accepted.

Credit is due to Falvey for the creative way the rotation has been constructed. Identifying available, controllable starters and then making the trades for them has put the Twins in a much better position to compete. It also allows starting pitching prospects more time to develop in the minor leagues or, in some cases, to recover from injuries. Less rushing of pitching prospects. I am hoping that the Twins use one of their first two Rule Four draft selections to take a high upside starter to go along with Raya and Preilip.

JD-TWINS · March 13

4 hours ago, old nurse said:

The extension would not be overly team friendly deals. They also should not be overpays. If the team can figure out that number there will be extensions. Around 4/70 for Mahle, 3/60 if Gray is having a good year

Live in Cincinnati & have seen Gray & Mahle a fair amount……regarding extensions, my comment would be, Gray gets guys out and Mahle looks good on the mound & on baseball card. Mahle has decent stuff & is 4-5 years younger than a relatively fragile Gray. However, the guy we really will want to extend is López……so Gray is most affordable & best value of the others at 2 years for $38M.

Would really focus on López first!!

If successful this year, any of the 3 are worth pursuing with differing expectations going forward.

36 in ‘24….Maeda - 130 inning guy at $13M 2yr

34 in ‘24….Gray - 155 inning guy at $19M 2yr

29 in ‘24….Mahle - 175 inning guy at $17M 3yr

……………..

she ??, maybe 27 in ‘24….López 185 innings at $21M…….have next year already & extend 2 more years.

Would be really good to have 2 of these 4 extended by July of ‘23!

JD-TWINS · March 13

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I think Mahle could get a possible extension for probably no more than 4 years, which means the $$ will need to be pretty big on an AAV basis. Something like 4/$95 might be in the ballpark. Maeda and Gray are too old (and I don't think Gray is enamored with the Twins). If there is no Mahle extension, I could definitely see a qualifying offer for both Mahle and Gray, but probably not for Maeda.

The pitcher(s) that I think are truly the most likely candidates are Lopez and Ryan. I think Lopez is young enough and promising enough (and they gave up a lot to get him) that they will want to lock him up for a while. Not sure on $$ because the resume isn't completely there yet, but he probably has more potential than any of them -- maybe 5/$125 (or maybe that's not enough, especially if he is very good this year). Ryan also doesn't have the long standing resume and is under team control for a while, which means they will try to get a more team friendly deal -- more than he would get through his league minimum and arbitration years, but less than true market value.

At the end of the day, however, it depends on how much these pitchers want to go to free agency to chase the money vs. how much they would like to remain in MN (see Berrios, Jose). I think the tide may be changing a bit on free agents wanting to come to MN, as the Twins certainly seem to be trying very hard to build a winning team.

If we get to 2nd round of playoffs ….and he’s offered an extension mid-year, I think Gray would love to return. All the BS last year about getting pulled too early from games is just a competitive guy wanting to get a couple more personal wins for his bargaining power. He just wants to be on a winner. Decent chance with him signing after the season.

Lopez is under control next year…..if he’s doing OK, a mid-season extension for a couple more years at $21M per year would be good guaranteed money for a guy that’s had shoulder problems.

Ryan is coming off his Rookie Year…..wouldn’t consider extending until ‘24 & then Team Friendly if guaranteeing him $$ 2 years early.

Trov · March 13

Depending how this season goes, I would bet at least 2 get QO if not extensions. A one year deal is up the alley of what they would looking for Gray or Maeda if they have good years. I doubt many teams would be offering more than 3 years for either of them.

Nashvilletwin · March 13

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Mahle - 175 inning guy at $17M 3yr

I’ll take the under on 175 innings out of Mahle this season…

HerbieFan · March 13

With the prospect capital traded away for Gray and Mahle it seems like they should extend at least one of them. Otherwise, it seems like they kind of gave those prospects away for next to nothing.

Doctor Gast · March 13

Like T&R said we have Lopez, Ryan, Ober & Paddack coming back in '24. I'm counting too much on Paddack coming back from his 2nd TJ (hoping for something in '25).

So I'd like to extend Mahle, IMO he was used too intensively at OAK and suffered from a dead arm. I'd like our chances of him bouncing back with a little rest. The best time to do this is now & take advantage of his 2nd half disappointment, otherwise he'll be more expensive.

Gray will be expensive any time and he'll want to test free agency (not because he doesn't like it here). I see us offering him an QA & him turning it down depending on how he sees his chances w/ a QA hanging over him.

Maeda, I don't want to extend him because he has the stuff but not the arm and he's over-hyped. I think we should trade him at the deadline.

IMO we should extend Lopez now before he really takes off.

roger · March 14

Question while reading this. Can a team do more than one QO?

old nurse · March 14

6 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Live in Cincinnati & have seen Gray & Mahle a fair amount……regarding extensions, my comment would be, Gray gets guys out and Mahle looks good on the mound & on baseball card. Mahle has decent stuff & is 4-5 years younger than a relatively fragile Gray. However, the guy we really will want to extend is López……so Gray is most affordable & best value of the others at 2 years for $38M.

Would really focus on López first!!

If successful this year, any of the 3 are worth pursuing with differing expectations going forward.

36 in ‘24….Maeda - 130 inning guy at $13M 2yr

34 in ‘24….Gray - 155 inning guy at $19M 2yr

29 in ‘24….Mahle - 175 inning guy at $17M 3yr

……………..

she ??, maybe 27 in ‘24….López 185 innings at $21M…….have next year already & extend 2 more years.

Would be really good to have 2 of these 4 extended by July of ‘23!

Lopez is not a free agent after this year and the subject was the pending free agents.

the numbers you suggest are on the low end of what was handed out last year. There would no reason for them to want to sign a contract now at those numbers unless in their short time the families decided they like Minnesota. You betcha that would work

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