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You can get a full explanation for the parameters used to develop this list in Tuesday's intro post, but the short version is this: We're answering the question: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion? To rank Twins players and prospects, I account for age, contract, controllability, upside, and more.
Here's where I landed with my selections for the list so far in Part 1 (16-20):
20. Chris Paddack, RHP
19. Austin Martin, CF
18. Max Kepler, RF
17. Alex Kirilloff, 1B
16. David Festa, RHP
And now, the choices for Nos. 11 through 15 on this year's list.
15. Louie Varland, RHP
2023 Ranking: 19
Varland is stuck in the middle, from a player-evaluation standpoint: is he a solid back-end starter option or a top-tier multi-inning relief weapon? He's shown the ability to do both so far, but it's possible we haven't seen all the 26-year-old has to offer.
If he can channel any semblance of the pure dominance he flashed during his late relief stint in returning to a rotation role, Varland could quickly grow into a hugely valuable asset as a mid-rotation starter with five years of team control. But having the fallback option to act as a phenomenal bullpen arm helps elevate him in these rankings, as does his track record of excellent durability.
14. Jorge Polanco, 2B
2023 Ranking: 5
The long-tenured Twins infielder has been a staple near the top of these rankings ever since I started putting them together in 2018, ranking in the top seven every year and topping out at No. 1 in 2020. The consistent production he's been known for was back on display when he played last year, as Polanco posted a 115 OPS+ in the regular season and delivered a signature clutch homer in the ALDS.
There are several factors contributing to his stark drop on this list. In part, it's because he's getting older (30) and his team control is dwindling, with only one team option remaining after 2024 (though his price tag continues to be very budget-friendly). There's also the emergence of abundant quality depth behind him on the second-base depth chart, with Edouard Julien, Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis all in that mix. Most of all though, it's the health concerns. Polanco played only 80 games in 2023, as he experienced a number of setbacks with his chronically problematic lower body. Even when playing, he often did not appear to have a good base underneath him. At this moment, it's just very hard to trust in his durability and longevity.
13. Marco Raya, RHP
2023 Ranking: NR
When you're talking about baseball players as organizational assets, it is imperative to give starting pitching prospects who are highly regarded a significant boost because of how valuable quality, cost-controlled rotation fixtures are from a team-building standpoint. We all know how difficult and expensive it is to go out and find good MLB pitchers on the open market.
Of course, the flip side is that pitching prospects tend to carry a higher share of burnout risk, and Raya has some of those volatile attributes. He's a high-school pitcher drafted late who has a small sample of pro experience (127 IP), and hasn't really been challenged from a workload standpoint. Still, Raya has done enough to mitigate a lot of the perceived risk by posting consistently stellar numbers in that sample and reaching Double A by the age of 20. Next year will tell us a lot about what we can realistically expect for his future role.
12. Matt Wallner, RF
2023 Ranking: 20
A year ago, Wallner was on the fringe of this list, despite earning Twins Minor League Player of the Year honors, because his skill set is so polarizing. Corner outfielders who hit for power with high strikeout rates walk a fine line: If you're going to stand out, your strengths need to be strong. Wallner flexed big-time as a rookie, leading to a dramatic rise in this year's rankings.
Yes, Wallner struck out a considerable amount – 80 times in 250 plate appearances – but when he connected, he did massive damage. The outfielder rounded out his offensive game with a strong walk rate and a penchant for plunkings, to fuel a stellar .370 OBP. In this context, the strikeouts aren't that scary, as long as he can keep them relatively in check. With one of the best outfield arms in the game, Wallner already looks like prototypical long-term right fielder and mid-lineup slugger. He's under team control through 2029.
11. Jhoan Durán, RHP
2023 Ranking: 8
Durán is, without question, among the most valuable relief pitchers in the major leagues, with several remaining years of team control. Yet, he doesn't quite crack the top 10 of this list. It is a reflection of the reliever role and its fungibility relative to starters and everyday players--though obviously the Twins closer is anything but fungible.
The big righthander has maximized his impact as a 65-inning bullpen weapon over the past two seasons, shaking off previous durability concerns to emerge as one of MLB's elite high-leverage arms. In 2023, Durán posted a 2.45 ERA, with 84 strikeouts and 46 hits allowed in 62 innings, cementing his rep nationally with a stellar showing in the playoffs. The Twins still control him for four more years.
That's it for today's installment! Join us tomorrow as we break into the top 10 of our countdown with our picks for No. 6 through No. 10! In the meantime, which rankings so far jump out at you?
20. Chris Paddack, RHP
19. Austin Martin, CF
18. Max Kepler, RF
17. Alex Kirilloff, 1B
16. David Festa, RHP
15. Louie Varland, RHP
14. Jorge Polanco, 2B
13. Marco Raya, RHP
12. Matt Wallner, RF
11. Jhoan Durán, RHP
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