The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Player Assets of 2024: Part 1 (16-20)

The idea of this exercise is to take stock of the organization's talent through the scope of team-building. The goal is to answer this question: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion?

We account for age, contract, controllability, upside, etc. It's not strictly a ranking of trade value, because that would be more team-agnostic, whereas this list aims to capture a very Twins-specific point of view. As such, players at areas of scarcity (i.e. pitching) get elevated, while those at areas of abundance (i.e. lefty-swinging corner guys) get downgraded a bit.

I always find compiling this list to be an interesting offseason pastime–one that brings to the surface unique conversations about Twins players, how we value them, and where the system's strengths and weaknesses truly lie. 

For an overview of the evolving Twins talent landscape, you can scan through the lists I've put together for the past six years.

• Top 20 Twins Assets: 2018
• Top 20 Twins Assets: 2019
• Top 20 Twins Assets: 2020
• Top 20 Twins Assets: 2021
• Top 20 Twins Assets: 2022
• Top 20 Twins Assets: 2023 (Revised)

Reviewing the 2023 list is especially interesting to look back at now, giving us a chance to directly compare how things have changed over a 12-month span that's seen dramatic rises, falls, additions and departures. In fact, there was so much seismic change immediately following the release of last year's rankings (Carlos Correa signing, Pablo López trade) that I felt compelled to release an update three weeks later.

As we embark on a new year here in 2024, the Twins are once again navigating a slow offseason with late moves yet to come, although probably not at last year's scale. These rankings serve as a snapshot of where the organization currently stands. As we'll see, the overall caliber of player asset quality atop the organization is very healthy, even if a few key pieces have taken steps back.

Today we kick off the list, with with Nos. 16 through 20, and over the course of this week we'll count down to No. 1.

20. Chris Paddack, RHP
2023 Ranking: NR

The Twins signed Paddack to an extension last January that locks him down for the next two years at about $10 million total. That's a tremendous bargain for a veteran mid-rotation starter – with upside to be more – in his age-28 and age-29 seasons. 

Of course, Paddack has plenty of question marks, coming back from his second Tommy John surgery with fewer than 200 total innings pitched over the past four years. He's going to be facing workload limitations, and his game was not without flaws before he got hurt. All those factors keep him on the fringe of these rankings, but Paddack looked good enough in his late-season run out of the bullpen to make the list.

19. Austin Martin, CF
2023 Ranking: 14

Martin's spot on this list has fallen from fifth to 14th to 19th in three years with the organization, owing to a slew of injuries and middling performance in the upper minors. But the former top draft pick remains an athletic and dynamic player with up-the-middle defensive traits. He's a relentless on-base machine and showed signs of discovering a power stroke last year at Triple-A St. Paul.

As the current best hope to replace Byron Buxton in center field, Martin is very consequential in the club's current plans. Added to the 40-man roster in November, he's got a big prove-it year in front of him at age 25. 

18. Max Kepler, RF
2023 Ranking: NR

Kepler is an interesting case in terms of player asset evaluation. On the one hand, he's a 30-year-old elite defensive right fielder coming off a resurgent second half at the plate that re-established him at the position's upper tier league-wide. On the other hand, he's under contract for only one more season.

That season comes with a very reasonable $10-million price tag, which adds a lot of value in a market filled with unspectacular veterans requiring expensive, multi-year contracts. The possibility of a qualifying offer following next season if he can keep it rolling adds to Kepler's appeal.

17. Alex Kirilloff, 1B
2023 Ranking: 17

Fittingly, Kirilloff remains in the same place he was a year ago following a season that brought much of the same: glimmers of his immense natural upside and talent, before succumbing to another serious injury. When on the field, he posted a 117 OPS+ and routinely appeared as Rocco Baldelli's No. 3 or 4 hitter against righty pitchers. 

While he showed encouraging signs with his twice-repaired wrist, Kirilloff suffered a shoulder injury late in the season that limited him in September and the playoffs. That required surgery itself, though fortunately, the operation was deemed to be far less serious than feared. It's another health setback in a career full of them, and the first baseman now already finds himself in the arbitration window. But the Twins still control him for three more years, and Kirilloff's potential to have game-changing impact at the plate continues to be obvious.

16. David Festa, RHP
2023 Ranking: NR

Pitching prospects are critical to any organization, helping sustain success for the big-league rotation while also serving as highly attractive trade chips. Festa offers a lot to like, whether you're projecting him as a (near) future Twins pitcher or viewing him through the lens of another front office.

Turning 24 in spring training, Festa is a tall and wiry right-hander with good extension, good velocity and good secondary stuff. He's posted 3.30 ERA in 206 minor-league innings and reached Triple A last year. He repped the Twins in the 2023 Futures Game, part of a season in which he averaged 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings as a starter in the high minors. He still needs to get his control issues figured out, which is no insignificant hurdle, but all the pieces are otherwise in place for Festa to make an impact quickly.

To recap, here is the first installment of this year's top 20 player assets list:

20. Chris Paddack, RHP
19. Austin Martin, CF
18. Max Kepler, RF
17. Alex Kirilloff, 1B
16. David Festa, RHP

Check back tomorrow as we continue the countdown with our picks for No. 15 through No. 11! In the meantime, let us know what you think of the order of these five names.