The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Player Assets of 2024: Part 1 (16-20)

[Nick Nelson]

With the arrival of a new year, it's time to update my annual rankings of the top 20 most valuable player assets in the Minnesota Twins organization.

Read on for the first installment, in which we'll explain the exercise and profile my choices for Nos. 16 through 20.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Nathan Ray Seebeck, Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

The idea of this exercise is to take stock of the organization's talent through the scope of team-building. The goal is to answer this question: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion?

We account for age, contract, controllability, upside, etc. It's not strictly a ranking of trade value, because that would be more team-agnostic, whereas this list aims to capture a very Twins-specific point of view. As such, players at areas of scarcity (i.e. pitching) get elevated, while those at areas of abundance (i.e. lefty-swinging corner guys) get downgraded a bit.

I always find compiling this list to be an interesting offseason pastime–one that brings to the surface unique conversations about Twins players, how we value them, and where the system's strengths and weaknesses truly lie. 

For an overview of the evolving Twins talent landscape, you can scan through the lists I've put together for the past six years.

• Top 20 Twins Assets: 2018
• Top 20 Twins Assets: 2019
• Top 20 Twins Assets: 2020
• Top 20 Twins Assets: 2021
• Top 20 Twins Assets: 2022
• Top 20 Twins Assets: 2023 (Revised)

Reviewing the 2023 list is especially interesting to look back at now, giving us a chance to directly compare how things have changed over a 12-month span that's seen dramatic rises, falls, additions and departures. In fact, there was so much seismic change immediately following the release of last year's rankings (Carlos Correa signing, Pablo López trade) that I felt compelled to release an update three weeks later.

As we embark on a new year here in 2024, the Twins are once again navigating a slow offseason with late moves yet to come, although probably not at last year's scale. These rankings serve as a snapshot of where the organization currently stands. As we'll see, the overall caliber of player asset quality atop the organization is very healthy, even if a few key pieces have taken steps back.

Today we kick off the list, with with Nos. 16 through 20, and over the course of this week we'll count down to No. 1.

20. Chris Paddack, RHP
2023 Ranking: NR

The Twins signed Paddack to an extension last January that locks him down for the next two years at about $10 million total. That's a tremendous bargain for a veteran mid-rotation starter – with upside to be more – in his age-28 and age-29 seasons. 

Of course, Paddack has plenty of question marks, coming back from his second Tommy John surgery with fewer than 200 total innings pitched over the past four years. He's going to be facing workload limitations, and his game was not without flaws before he got hurt. All those factors keep him on the fringe of these rankings, but Paddack looked good enough in his late-season run out of the bullpen to make the list.

19. Austin Martin, CF
2023 Ranking: 14

Martin's spot on this list has fallen from fifth to 14th to 19th in three years with the organization, owing to a slew of injuries and middling performance in the upper minors. But the former top draft pick remains an athletic and dynamic player with up-the-middle defensive traits. He's a relentless on-base machine and showed signs of discovering a power stroke last year at Triple-A St. Paul.

As the current best hope to replace Byron Buxton in center field, Martin is very consequential in the club's current plans. Added to the 40-man roster in November, he's got a big prove-it year in front of him at age 25. 

18. Max Kepler, RF
2023 Ranking: NR

Kepler is an interesting case in terms of player asset evaluation. On the one hand, he's a 30-year-old elite defensive right fielder coming off a resurgent second half at the plate that re-established him at the position's upper tier league-wide. On the other hand, he's under contract for only one more season.

That season comes with a very reasonable $10-million price tag, which adds a lot of value in a market filled with unspectacular veterans requiring expensive, multi-year contracts. The possibility of a qualifying offer following next season if he can keep it rolling adds to Kepler's appeal.

17. Alex Kirilloff, 1B
2023 Ranking: 17

Fittingly, Kirilloff remains in the same place he was a year ago following a season that brought much of the same: glimmers of his immense natural upside and talent, before succumbing to another serious injury. When on the field, he posted a 117 OPS+ and routinely appeared as Rocco Baldelli's No. 3 or 4 hitter against righty pitchers. 

While he showed encouraging signs with his twice-repaired wrist, Kirilloff suffered a shoulder injury late in the season that limited him in September and the playoffs. That required surgery itself, though fortunately, the operation was deemed to be far less serious than feared. It's another health setback in a career full of them, and the first baseman now already finds himself in the arbitration window. But the Twins still control him for three more years, and Kirilloff's potential to have game-changing impact at the plate continues to be obvious.

16. David Festa, RHP
2023 Ranking: NR

Pitching prospects are critical to any organization, helping sustain success for the big-league rotation while also serving as highly attractive trade chips. Festa offers a lot to like, whether you're projecting him as a (near) future Twins pitcher or viewing him through the lens of another front office.

Turning 24 in spring training, Festa is a tall and wiry right-hander with good extension, good velocity and good secondary stuff. He's posted 3.30 ERA in 206 minor-league innings and reached Triple A last year. He repped the Twins in the 2023 Futures Game, part of a season in which he averaged 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings as a starter in the high minors. He still needs to get his control issues figured out, which is no insignificant hurdle, but all the pieces are otherwise in place for Festa to make an impact quickly.

To recap, here is the first installment of this year's top 20 player assets list:

20. Chris Paddack, RHP
19. Austin Martin, CF
18. Max Kepler, RF
17. Alex Kirilloff, 1B
16. David Festa, RHP

Check back tomorrow as we continue the countdown with our picks for No. 15 through No. 11! In the meantime, let us know what you think of the order of these five names.

View full article

[Karbo]

Starting to look like AK=Buxton

[SteveLV]

IMO Paddack would have a heck of lot more trade value on the open market with his contract than any of these other 4 listed players.  Pitching is ridiculously expensive and valuable.

[TwinsDr2021]

I agree with Steve above that Paddack should be the highest on this list. I came up with more than 20 guys that would bring a higher return than Martin. I just don't think 25 year old minor league player (that requires a 40 man spot) would return what a younger more highly rated prospect would return.

[roger]

Always interesting when you do this, Nick.

I continue to believe that some late in spring training the Twins will add a couple years to Max's contract.  Also am hopeful that Paddack pitches so well that the Twins extend him a couple years later this summer.

As it appears Lewis has put his injury concerns behind him, hopefully, AK will do the same this summer and put up a season like we all know he could.

Surprised to see Festa on this list.  But then, I don't know a lot about him.  Can he be more than a #5 starter who is up and down between the Twins and Saints?  Do you see it as likely that he will be starting games for the Twins this year?

[Nick Nelson]

47 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I agree with Steve above that Paddack should be the highest on this list. I came up with more than 20 guys that would bring a higher return than Martin. I just don't think 25 year old minor league player (that requires a 40 man spot) would return what a younger more highly rated prospect would return.

To reiterate, this is not strictly a ranking of trade value, as it's meant to present a more Twins-specific interpretation of value. Martin makes the list largely for scarcity reasons: he can fill a role that they need (backup/replacement for Buxton in CF with actual upside) and brings a skill set they somewhat lack (high-contact, high-speed, high OBP). At least that's how I'm looking at it. That said, if he wouldn't have had the late surge at Triple-A he probably would've missed the cut. 

[Nick Nelson]

37 minutes ago, roger said:

Surprised to see Festa on this list.  But then, I don't know a lot about him.  Can he be more than a #5 starter who is up and down between the Twins and Saints?  Do you see it as likely that he will be starting games for the Twins this year?

In my opinion, yes and yes. He has the stuff and makeup. But it really comes down to whether he can wrangle his control.

[strumdatjag]

The problem with counting down rather than up?   We don’t get to debate whom was left off the list.  

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, Karbo said:

Starting to look like AK=Buxton

4 years isn’t 9 years……..TBD but not great so far, agreed!

[JD-TWINS]

List seems very reasonable to start……..waiting to see if there are any other Farm System guys other than Lee & Jenkins. Maybe Rodríguez?………..are any prospects available for trading capital?

[jmlease1]

5 hours ago, SteveLV said:

IMO Paddack would have a heck of lot more trade value on the open market with his contract than any of these other 4 listed players.  Pitching is ridiculously expensive and valuable.

I think this would be true a month into the season if Paddack looks like he can compete as a starter and get through 5-6 innings effectively. Right now, he's still quite an unknown when it comes to how he'll compete as a starter after TJ #2, and there are certainly critics out there who think he has little future as anything other than a bullpen arm, and bullpen arms with little history in high leverage situations aren't as good from an asset standpoint.

I think this is about right for now; his value jumps quite a bit if he's really a mid-rotation starter like the Twins seem to believe. (I'm still unsure; I think he has a strong fastball-changeup combo, but needs that 3rd pitch to show to stick in the rotation and we haven't seen that from him enough yet. Healthy with good coaching maybe he gets there, as he's shown flashes. Cautiously optimistic.)

I think Martin has the talent to rank higher, but he's battled enough injuries and hasn't developed the power people hoped for that this is more than fair. But I still really like him.

[Fatbat]

10 hours ago, Karbo said:

Starting to look like AK=Buxton

AK is closer to Kirk Gibson if you go by age and injury issues. 

[Fatbat]

6 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

List seems very reasonable to start……..waiting to see if there are any other Farm System guys other than Lee & Jenkins. Maybe Rodríguez?………..are any prospects available for trading capital?

Plenty of farm guys to trade every year but only of few FO will want farm guys. Same thing goes the other way. Polo , Vasquez and Kep have solid reputations but flaws. To reach a trade agreement on different levels with different teams and different considerations is not an easy task.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Plenty of farm guys to trade every year but only of few FO will want farm guys. Same thing goes the other way. Polo , Vasquez and Kep have solid reputations but flaws. To reach a trade agreement on different levels with different teams and different considerations is not an easy task.

“Farm guys” in the Top 20 that haven’t been unveiled, that is my meaning.

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I think this would be true a month into the season if Paddack looks like he can compete as a starter and get through 5-6 innings effectively. Right now, he's still quite an unknown when it comes to how he'll compete as a starter after TJ #2, and there are certainly critics out there who think he has little future as anything other than a bullpen arm, and bullpen arms with little history in high leverage situations aren't as good from an asset standpoint.

I think this is about right for now; his value jumps quite a bit if he's really a mid-rotation starter like the Twins seem to believe. (I'm still unsure; I think he has a strong fastball-changeup combo, but needs that 3rd pitch to show to stick in the rotation and we haven't seen that from him enough yet. Healthy with good coaching maybe he gets there, as he's shown flashes. Cautiously optimistic.)

I think Martin has the talent to rank higher, but he's battled enough injuries and hasn't developed the power people hoped for that this is more than fair. But I still really like him.

After seeing the attitude & velocity in a few outings out of the Pen in ‘23, am very bullish on Paddack! Not really worried about how he ranks here - Twins have him under control for 2 years at a good $$ number.

I’d be happy if he started games until the All-star break & then moved to the Pen. Not very likely but it is a specific way to limit innings and getting him to help us win games. Hopefully, by mid July team will have a couple other options for some spot starts in the 2nd half.

Handful of notable guys have come back from 2nd Tommy John - just as many have busted out of baseball. deGrom & Beuhler will be a couple other guys everyone will be scrutinizing. Will be interesting.

[Rosterman]

I'm hoping Martin will shine when he hits the majors. Fingers-crossed. Is centerfield the best spot for him, though?

 

Max Kepler. Can the Twins get another half-season out of him if they don't trade him now? I'm not sure I would gamble and sign him for more years, no matter how good he may start 2024. But talk about a franchise story. I'm surprised he is on this list. Unless one really thinks he will be a Twin in 2024...and beyond.

 

Paddack can be a dark horse in the rotation. Do you pair him with an opener to start the season, especially if you add a third lefty to the bullpen? If he shines, but the team folds, is he trade bait with both Festa and maybe Canterino in the wings?

 

Kirilloff, it is his job to keep. He has all the skill set, all the promise, to be a middle-of-the-line up hitting threat. If he can stay in the line-up, and also hit both righties and lefties.

[Blyleven2011]

Paddack is an asset if they manage his workload and just ease him along , if he can't go 5 innings a start , move him to the bullpen as a long reliever , we got him for 2024 and 2025  ...

Martin can't hit for power , who cares if he makes contact for singles,  doubles or walks , getting on base can be a table setter for the lineup  and let the real homerun hitters hit the homers with men on base  ...

Kepler can be an asset  if he keeps the cob webs out of his head , such a streaky hitter  ...

Boy it would be great if kiriloff could stay healthy  , I like his approach to hitting and his power to the opposite field ...

Festa shows promise  and should be on 26 man roster at some point ...

[Major League Ready]

21 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

To reiterate, this is not strictly a ranking of trade value, as it's meant to present a more Twins-specific interpretation of value. Martin makes the list largely for scarcity reasons: he can fill a role that they need (backup/replacement for Buxton in CF with actual upside) and brings a skill set they somewhat lack (high-contact, high-speed, high OBP). At least that's how I'm looking at it. That said, if he wouldn't have had the late surge at Triple-A he probably would've missed the cut. 

The approach you are taking to value is an interesting twist to how we would normally value assets.  That said, I think the twins are counting on getting far more value from Paddack than Festa or Raya who you have 7 places ahead of him.  This could make sense if it's a long-term look instead of this year but that get's back to a more traditional value proposition.  

[Melissa]

Thanks, Nick! 

FYI the link for Austin goes to a different player.