Twins Add Prospects Rodriguez, Martin to Roster Ahead of Rule 5 Deadline

I think they are going to regret not adding Anthony Prato.  When you look at those balanced AAA numbers you realize he could be a special bat.  Not sure if anyone else saw that the Brewers gave up two top 30 prospects for the privilege of adding Oliver Dunn whose numbers at AA aren’t quite as good as Prato’s AAA numbers.  Sure it could just be one good year and Prato's numbers could fall off but balanced K and walk rates generally lead to MLB success.  If I were Oakland this is a player I make sure to grab in Rule V.  Floor is utility player ceiling could be starter IMO.

Anyone suprised they didnt add Sabato?

10 minutes ago, Dman said:

I think they are going to regret not adding Anthony Prato.  

Front office probably figures their best chance of retaining him is to try and pass him through the Rule 5 draft now instead of passing him through waivers later on, when they start adding newcomers to the 40 man.

10 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

I see what you are saying but just disagree. If Helman didn't get selected last year when he plays even more positions, hit more homers and stole more bases than Prato this year (does look like Helman got about 100 more plate appearances than Prato though - not totally sure why as AA starts only about a week after AAA if I remember correctly), Only one year age difference from Helman in 2022 to Prato in 2023. I'm betting he doesn't get selected. 

Yeah I get your point and I do hope that is the case but Helman's numbers especially at AAA weren't nearly as balanced as Prato's.  Prato's BA is .300 and he K's and Walks almost the same.  Helman hit .250 with only a 9% walk rate.  There were more warts there IMO.  Prato's line is ideal and shows no weakness at AAA.  The auto strike zone\tighter zone at AAA certainly could have caused the improvement for Prato, but that is still a pretty exceptional line IMO.  He is only 25 so not that old.  It is hard to carry position players on the 26 man but for a team that likely is playing a lot of young players like the A's he seems like a really good fit.

Just now, FlyingFinn said:

In one of the oddest stat line years, Prato hits .171 in 149 plate appearances with a .248 slug. % in AA in 2023. Compare that to what you mention in AAA and it's like it was his twin brother in AA, a guy isn't very good. I'm thinking this will scare teams away.

Yeah I thought about that too, but do you remember how Wallner started out his AA year in 2022?  It was equally as bad with a higher K rate (I think he was approaching a 50% K rate?).  Early season and colder weather can lead to some misleading results IMO.  Once Wallner got it together it hasn't left him.  Hard to say the same will hold true for Prato just yet, but like I said the balanced walk and K rate is key indicator of success as players move up.  It is a good trend and he likely figured something out just like Wallner did.  It is a risk both ways.

For the Twins the added issue is they have Lee for whatever Prato's role would be so they might think they can afford the Rule V risk as he has to stay on 26 man roster of another all year.  If he stinks next year then they don't have to try and get him through waivers and just let everything play out.  They know him better than I do, as do other scouts so I could be dead wrong.  The AAA line is strong and while he waivered some in August he came back with a nice September.  I am the glass half full guy that thinks he is starter material somewhere and or at least a valuable trade asset if he proves himself this year.

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

Anyone suprised they didnt add Sabato?

There are so many reason's not to add him If they would have added him I would have had a lot of questions.  Reason's not add 1) A very high K rate 2) A one dimensional player that doesn't look great at 1st base and seems more suited to DH 3) Severino looks like a better fit for first base than Sabato and the Twins just added him 4) He is slow 5) I don't think another team would take him.

Reasons to add. 1) He can work the count and take walks 2) His exit velocities are very good and generally lead to HR's.  Still I don't think that is enough to make things work at the MLB level as he has to get the K rate down and the bat needs to be Elite or close to it to make it worth adding him as he adds no defensive value.

1 hour ago, Fat Calvin said:

With all the uncertainty at center field, I'm surprised the Twins didn't protect Keirsey.

Would Keirsey provide any certainty? 

2 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

In one of the oddest stat line years, Prato hits .171 in 149 plate appearances with a .248 slug. % in AA in 2023. Compare that to what you mention in AAA and it's like it was his twin brother in AA, a guy who isn't very good. I'm thinking this will scare teams away.

Because each level is harder the the previous one, this is certainly not the pattern you would expect.  My own rule of thumb is to subtract .100 points of OPS when moving up a level, but human performance isn't nearly as neat and clean as some amateur's rule of thumb.

When the unexpected happens, I like to look at BA on Balls In Play.  Typical players run around .300 in that stat, so when BABIP is really low, .217 at AA for Prato, or really high, .387 at AAA for him, it seems wise to make allowances,  Some call it luck, I call it non-reproducible results, but either way the guy was presumably the same hitter throughout but somehow the balls were maybe going right at fielders the first half of his season, while a few more than normal fell in for him safely during the second half.  Presumably the organization's "eye test" was telling the FO that he was performing soundly, otherwise the mid-season promotion would make little sense.

They say a player is never as bad as he seems when things are going badly, and never as good as when things go well.  The "real" Anthony Prato is likely somewhere between the stat lines of his two half-seasons.

Odd, yes.  And perhaps all that it is.

4 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Anyone suprised they didnt add Sabato?

Big Papi II.   Book it.

I don't think they lose anybody. Mostly because they don't have any pitching prospects on that list, and most teams have the sort of hitters on that list. 

Of note is that the Twins added four players to be protected and none of them are pitchers. They are losing five arms (Mahle, Keuchel, Maeda, Gray, Pagán) to free agency and added none. That math tells me that what the Twins add in the off season will be principally pitching. 

10 hours ago, ashbury said:

Because each level is harder the the previous one, this is certainly not the pattern you would expect.  My own rule of thumb is to subtract .100 points of OPS when moving up a level, but human performance isn't nearly as neat and clean as some amateur's rule of thumb.

When the unexpected happens, I like to look at BA on Balls In Play.  Typical players run around .300 in that stat, so when BABIP is really low, .217 at AA for Prato, or really high, .387 at AAA for him, it seems wise to make allowances,  Some call it luck, I call it non-reproducible results, but either way the guy was presumably the same hitter throughout but somehow the balls were maybe going right at fielders the first half of his season, while a few more than normal fell in for him safely during the second half.  Presumably the organization's "eye test" was telling the FO that he was performing soundly, otherwise the mid-season promotion would make little sense.

They say a player is never as bad as he seems when things are going badly, and never as good as when things go well.  The "real" Anthony Prato is likely somewhere between the stat lines of his two half-seasons.

Odd, yes.  And perhaps all that it is.

Sound reasoning.  I agree on the OPS a .100 drop is usually the minimum .150 to .200 the norm at least that first year and sometimes worse than that.  I agree the BABIP is high and unsustainable .320 to 330 is generally the best you can get away with with if you have good contact skills.  Dropping 50 to 60 points of average would hurt even with the good slugging and since he is mainly a doubles guy and not a HR hitter that BABIP could sap some slugging as well.  Still his OBP was good for an extra .150 points so dropping some average not the end of the world given the eye at the plate.

As I well know and others pointed out adding position players on the 26 man for a year is much harder than hiding a reliever.  The Twins have lost a few though over the years Baddoo being the most recent.  The Twins protected the right 4 guys.  Just have to wait and see if someone grabs Prato or not.

Next years Rule V will have more pitchers on it with Raya, Festa and Ohl, possibly MaCleod and Hidalgo depending on the years they have and maybe Mooney again depending on if he stays healthy and performs. Rosario, Olivar and Cardenas will be in the running as position players and with Cardenas and Olivar being catchers they will have to be really careful if they decide not to add them.

40 man spots are valuable so I can see why they didn't add him.  My thinking is was that they are likely trading Polanco and likely one of Kepler or Farmer and they still have two spots left so it seemed safe to add Prato for the year, but obviously they have different plans.