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You can get a full explanation for the parameters used to develop this list in Tuesday's intro post, but the short version is this: We're trying the question: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion? To rank Twins players and prospects, we account for age, contract, controllability, upside, etc.
Here's where I landed with my selections for the list so far in Part 1 (16-20), Part 2 (11-15) and Part 3 (6-10):
20. Chris Paddack, RHP
19. Austin Martin, CF
18. Max Kepler, RF
17. Alex Kirilloff, 1B
16. David Festa, RHP
15. Louie Varland, RHP
14. Jorge Polanco, 2B
13. Marco Raya, RHP
12. Matt Wallner, RF
11. Jhoan Durán, RHP
10. Joe Ryan, RHP
9. Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF
8. Edouard Julien, 2B
7. Bailey Ober, RHP
6. Carlos Correa, SS
Now, we turn our attention to the true franchise centerpieces – the top five player assets in the organization heading into 2024, from my view.
5. Ryan Jeffers, C
2023 Ranking: 16
Good-hitting catchers with legitimate receiving skills are notoriously hard to find. Among players at the position who made 300-plus plate appearances in 2023, Jeffers ranked second in wOBA (.369) behind only Mitch Garver, who was really more of a DH who could catch than the reverse. Jeffers, on the other hand, is a bona fide starting catcher who received every inning and at-bat in the playoffs. He's a defensive asset and an offensive force; the 26-year-old's .853 OPS in 2023 was 150 points higher than that of the average MLB catcher.
Rarity is what makes Jeffers a valuable commodity; you just don't often find backstops capable of bringing this kind of all-around impact. Last year, he led all Twins position players in bWAR and ranked second in fWAR, despite playing in only 96 games. That last number points to the next step for Jeffers: elevating into a true primary role over the course of a season (100+ starts), and growing his impact while continuing to produce like he did in the semi-limited sample of 2023--albeit a very convincing and swagger-filled sample.
4. Brooks Lee, SS
2023 Ranking: 3
During his first full pro season, Minnesota's 2022 first-round draft pick did everything he needed to do, in order to firmly assert himself among the game's top tier of prospects. Lee took the aggressive assignment of starting at Double-A Wichita in stride, posting an .841 OPS to earn a promotion to Triple A in August and position himself on the precipice of a big-league debut already. He's still only 22 years old.
Lee offers about as sturdy a floor as you could ask for in a prospect, as a switch-hitter with a balanced mix of discipline, power, and adaptiveness. Rocco Baldelli has marveled at his ability to make adjustments at the plate. Lee is also at the top of the defensive spectrum presently, though it's unlikely he'll play shortstop regularly in the majors.
The question is one of ceiling; Lee seems like a surefire big-leaguer, but can he be an All-Star? Can he reach another level as he acclimates to the highest levels of professional ball? So far, he hasn't posted an OPS of .850 or higher at any stop in the minors. Of course, he also hasn't played more than 87 games at any level before getting promoted.
3. Pablo López, RHP
2023 Ranking: 9
He's the pitcher this front office was hired to find. The Twins franchise suffered for many years, and ultimately overturned its entire baseball operation, because they were unable to develop or acquire pitchers like López: a prime-aged, ace-caliber starter with a sustainable formula for dominance.
The front office smartly locked him up with a contact extension right away, so the Twins have López under team control for the next four years at a total of $73.5 million, in his age-28 through 31 seasons. It's a contract that looked good at the time and looks vastly better following a breakout season in which López ranked third in the majors in strikeouts, made the All-Star team, received Cy Young votes, and won two dazzling Game 1 starts in the playoffs.
It took a valuable asset to acquire him – Luis Arraez was ranked No. 10 here a year ago, before the Twins traded him – but through the lens of team-building, it's hard to deny this swap now looks like a slam dunk, especially with bats like Edouard Julien and others emerging to fill Arraez's avoid.
2. Royce Lewis, 3B
2023 Ranking: 6
Based purely on his talent and makeup, Lewis has continually hovered near the top of these rankings, despite barely playing as he worked through lost seasons and injury rehabs. When he made his long-awaited return from a second ACL surgery in late May, it quickly became clear that my faith was well placed. Lewis is an instant superstar.
In 70 games as a big-leaguer, he has consistently played at an MVP-caliber level, posting a .913 OPS with 17 home runs and 57 RBI in 280 plate appearances. The former shortstop took to playing third base with little issue. In the postseason, Lewis launched four homers in six games to jolt a quiet offense, willing the Twins out of their lengthy playoff slump.
Still controlled for five more years, Lewis would pretty clearly be the club's No. 1 centerpiece going forward if not for the newcomer below, and some lingering injury question marks. If he can stay healthy, he can legitimately change the course of the franchise; he already has. Royce was worth the wait.
1. Walker Jenkins, CF
2023 Ranking: NR
There are compelling arguments for Lewis or López being No. 1 on this list. Admittedly, it's kind of difficult to place an 18-year-old, fresh out of high school with 26 whole games of professional experience, in front of players who are already blossoming on the major-league stage.
The thing is, Jenkins just has it all. Minnesota's 2023 first-round draft pick was one of the top amateur talents in the entire country, widely viewed as having the makings of a No. 1 overall pick in most other years. The lefty-swinging outfielder only raised his stock after coming aboard, posting an absurd .362/.417/.571 slash line with only 14 strikeouts in in his first 115 plate appearances against pro competition. It's almost scary how good he looked in a dozen games against A-ball pitchers.
His potential is off the charts and, in the context of baseball prospects, the flame-out risk looks relatively low given his skill set and initial performance. Jenkins is on the Joe Mauer and Byron Buxton tier as a generational talent with almost limitless potential if he stays healthy. Were the Twins to make him available in a trade, he's the kind of prospect who would give them access to almost anyone. I suspect they'll be just fine hanging onto him and building around him.
That's a wrap folks! If you've been following around all week, it's appreciated, especially if you've shared your thoughts. This list is meant to spark conversation. Here's a rundown of the final list:
20. Chris Paddack, RHP
19. Austin Martin, CF
18. Max Kepler, RF
17. Alex Kirilloff, 1B
16. David Festa, RHP
15. Louie Varland, RHP
14. Jorge Polanco, 2B
13. Marco Raya, RHP
12. Matt Wallner, RF
11. Jhoan Durán, RHP
10. Joe Ryan, RHP
9. Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF
8. Edouard Julien, 2B
7. Bailey Ober, RHP
6. Carlos Correa, SS
5. Ryan Jeffers, C
4. Brooks Lee, SS
3. Pablo López, RHP
2. Royce Lewis, 3B
1. Walker Jenkins, CF
Check back next week for more analysis of this list and the state of the Twins talent landscape. Happy New Years, and cheers to big things for the Twins in 2024!
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