The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Player Assets of 2024: Part 3 (6-10)

35 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

On that note, do we know who is going to driveline this offseason? I know it seemingly helped a number of pitchers last year work on their craft. Hopefully a number of them (or all) are going there again this offseason.

Heard that Ryan, Jax, Lopez and Thielbar were there.  

Very interesting group, Nick.  The only change I would make is not have ERod this high.  Just too many questions, at least in my mind.  If he does have this value to others, I could see him headlining a trade as we move towards spring training.

What I found most interesting was that your #7 and #8 most valuable players were both relatively low draft picks.  For a mid-market team like the Twins, it is a must to get this type of value out of your mid-to-low draft picks.  Makes me wonder if there a more guys like this on the way?  And who might they be?

To think that Erod is so young and doing what he did in high A is so cool to watch. He looks like an unrefined Julien at the plate. If he crushes in Wichita this spring, do they sent him to St. Paul in July? How far does he have to cut his swing and miss rate to? Could a ‘26 outfield of Wallner,Jenkins,Erod be the best in baseball?  So much in the superstars of the future bag right now. 
Joe Ryan may be top 5 next year. His first half ‘23 wasn’t a fluke. I would pencil him in for an allstar appearance in ‘24. He is just that good and he will regain the trust of baldelli with his game early in ‘24. The dude is a little quirky but amazingly talented. 
both C4 and Ober should be right where they are and Ober is going to add dependability to his resume. 

4 minutes ago, NoCryingInBaseball said:

Final five remaining.....I'm guessing:

1. Brooks Lee, SS

2. Royce Lewis, SS

3. Ryan Jeffers, C

4. Walker Jenkins OF

5. Byron Buxton, CF

What about Pablo?

Correa is the hardest to evaluate for a list like this for me. He's an incredibly important player for the Twins, because finding a shortstop who can hit and field has been a real problem over the years, and a healthy Correa does both in ways rarely seen in a Twins uniform. His playoff performance was exactly the kind of thing we hoped for, and if the plantar fasciitis is in the past then he could easily be worth his expensive contract. (according to Fangraphs methodology, Correa has been worth more than $35M 3 times already in his career; using bRef's he's done it 5 times, and that's if you value 1 WAR a) holding at $8M, and b) you take it on a linear fashion, both of which are a little questionable at this point.) So his contract is expensive but not truly problematic, but he also has enough of an injury history to be concerning.

He's an incredibly important asset one way or another.

21 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

What a man! Lopez has the season of his life, signs a long-term contract, and is still working hard to improve. I hope his attitude is contagious!

24 minutes ago, NoCryingInBaseball said:

Final five remaining.....I'm guessing:

1. Brooks Lee, SS

2. Royce Lewis, SS

3. Ryan Jeffers, C

4. Walker Jenkins OF

5. Byron Buxton, CF

Is it possible that Pablo is top five…and Buxton is not top 20?

41 minutes ago, NoCryingInBaseball said:

Final five remaining.....I'm guessing:

1. Brooks Lee, SS

2. Royce Lewis, SS

3. Ryan Jeffers, C

4. Walker Jenkins OF

5. Byron Buxton, CF

Top 5 in order from #5-#1 are:

5. Jeffers

4. Lee

3. Jenkins

2. Lopez

1. Lewis 

Nick, the rankings are very solid.  Well done.

I’m torn on Correa.  Undoubtedly, he was a huge contributor this past year. However, going forward he looks to be a very poor value, particularly given our cash constraints. It’s quite possible by the middle to end of 2024, Brooks Lee will already be the better all around SS with the gap only widening from there - and for 1/30th the cost.

Hope I’m wrong, but this is probably Correa’s last year in the top 10 on your annual list and, like Buxton now, he’s probably completely off the list after the ‘25 season.

Didn’t Ober have a healthy year this last year?  He did pitch a full season.  The Twins did limit his innings a little so he would be ready for the postseason.  
 

As far as the rankings go I think you ranked Raya and ERod too high.  They are both a long ways from the majors. Pitching prospects have a high flame out rate.  I do agree on your Festa ranking as he is on the cusp of being a major league starter.  Anyways just nitpicking.  These lists are fun this time of year when nothing is happening.  
 

From the comments above it does seem like someone deserving of a top 20 asset is getting squeezed.  I’ll stay tuned to find out.

Lot of love for Lewis. Sure hope the weight of expectations after only 280 MLB plate appearances aren't too overwhelming. 

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Correa is a tough one to evaluate going forward.  I believe (but don't really know) that the next few years will be much better offensively than 2023, and if so, he deserves the #6 ranking, and probably more.  However, this could also be the start of a precipitous death spiral for his career which would be pretty terrible.  Let's hope I'm on the right side of that guess because his contribution will be really important.  Some are convinced that Brooks Lee will take over shortstop in a year or two, but that seems pretty doubtful given the kind of defense that Correa plays -- yes I know that some of the metrics didn't love him last year but he certainly passes (aces) the eye test. 

I have to say I also applaud your (non)take on Byron Buxton.  Since there are only five spots left and five obvious candidates for them without Buxton, I'm assuming he was left off the list.  I am in complete agreement, as you can't be valuable to your team if you aren't actually available to play.  At his best, he is/was very high impact and undoubtedly top 5, but in his current state I would rather have players 16 through 20 on your list than Buxton.  I hope I am very wrong on this, but I think his remaining time with the team is likely to be pretty painful. 

So who's #1?  Lewis, Jenkins, or Lopez?  I'm going with Lewis but it's an easy argument to make for any of the three.

I'm going with pitching  , starting pitching was a high value  in 2023 ...

Lopez # 1 ....

My honest opinion is Correa is overrated by a lot. And overpaid by, a lot. Top 20, but on the outside of top 15 and looking in.

Spot on with the write up on ERod. He is just a bit underrated imo, I would have him at #6. Soon to be Super Star.

6 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

As young as they are, Raya is already in AA and Rodriguez should start there this year. It's not out of the question that either are called up this year. 

And while Raya's first six outings in AA started off rough, giving up 16 ER and 11 BB in 13 innings, his last five outings saw him surrender 1 ER and 3 BB in 16 innings. If Festa doesn't have his control worked out before Raya moves to AAA, Raya's going to leapfrog him in the pecking order and probably never look back.

And I would rate Raya at 13 once he leap frogs Festa.  There is still distance from where he is and that point.  Also Raya has been on strict pitch counts limiting his innings pitched.  I just think he has more to do to get the higher ranking.  That’s just my opinion and not that big a deal in the grand scheme.  I feel like a 19 or 20 ranking due to potential is more accurate for where he is at.