Can Twins Rookies Avoid the Regression Bug?

"We have nothing to fear but fear itself." Winston Churchill.

I think Winny would've made a good Twins fan.

While these 3, maintaining their level of play they displayed as rookies, is important. It will be even more important for the 2 highly paid superduds (Correa & Buxton) of 2023 to produce up to their expected level in 2024. Especially if the 3 rookies that outplayed them do regress. I know it is always a big IF, but IF Buxton can stay healthy and play at a level like he did in 2021 for a full season and IF Correa can play at a level like he did in 2021 or 2022 then the way Lewis, Wallner and Julien play won't NEED to be that prolific. The Twins need to get their moneys worth from those they are paying it to. Period!

Just curious as to how many of Julian's Ks were called 3rd strikes on pitches off the plate. 

Hopefully Lewis won't get caught up the Twins launch angle mantra and lose the swing that produces solid power to all fields.

Danny Santana used speed to beat out infield hits. That was easily defended. His regression should have been anticipated. 

Still think TK had the best view of young hitters. You don’t know what you have until they get 1000-1500 at bats. And that works both ways ie maybe Miranda will bounce back. 
 

Regarding Julien: he got screwed on a bunch of called third strikes but he took more legit called third strikes. When you refuse to swing at close pitches with two strikes that is going to happen. 

Nick, this article is very much appreciated because it correctly identifies where the Twins, as an organization overall and as coaching staff specifically, must systematically and substantially improve: namely, the transitioning and continuous improvement of bonafide prospects into legitimate, multi year major leaguers commensurate with their talent and potential.

Given the current state of the financial characteristics of the league, certainly more illuminated by the recent spending spree of the Dodgers and the consequences of declining TV revenues for multiple clubs, the ability for a small to mid-market to team to more fully capitalize on their cheap, controllable homegrown talent becomes even more paramount for any chance of success.

Ownership should take the necessary steps to ensure their FO and coaching staff are focused on (and ultimately rewarded or penalised for) delivering the ongoing development of our young talent from call up through multiple seasons thereafter. Of all the potential areas for Rocco and his staff to provide truly differentiated value add, this is the single most important and one of the top criteria on which they should be evaluated.

I expect Wallner to have the biggest regression.  In terms of Julien, although he may regress against righties, we can hope he grows against lefties, which was just terrible, and that will balance the overall regression. Lewis I do not expect a ton of regression.  Yes, he is not likely to hit grand slams with just about every chance he has, but as long as he can have people around him in the line up and does not press too much he should be fine. 

It will be interesting to see where these guys land next season.

I tend to think Julien is the most regression-proof; that plate discipline is incredible and he kept it intact through a small slump in 2023, when a lot of young players even really talented ones start expanding the zone. He might get a little more respect from the umpires in 2024, which could help offset any regression. The real key will be whether he can keep consistently doing damage when he does swing at a pitch in the zone.

Lewis is the hardest to judge for me; it seems unlikely that he'll out-slug everyone on the Twins by a fair margin...but at the same time, who wants to doubt Mr. Grand Slam? The good thing is he can have a fair significant regression and still be a fantastic player.

Wallner looks like the easiest call to regress because of his Ks and we've seen players who K a lot fall into these holes where it seems like they'll never hit a ball again. But Wallner has shown that he can still do damage when he's not contacting the ball a lot, that he can still draw walks...and Cement Bones isn't getting pushed off the plate, which helps him get the pitches he wants and on-base a little more often.

I think all three slip back some...but none quite as much as people predict. Lewis will technically slide the most, but will still be excellent, just maybe not a no-doubt all-star in his sophomore season.

Calling Miranda’s rookie season as “brilliant” was a bit of hyperbole. A .269 batting average, 16 homers and 66 rbi was solid but not head turning. Three to one strikeout to walk ratio was poor. He did have some clutch hits, but his defense was below average. I still think he can recover his stroke and be a solid contributor offensively in 2024. 

Lewis will continue to impress. Julien will need to develope against leftys, but with his plate discipline, he should be able to. Wallner is a Kepler clone and may exhibit similar frustrations. We need to keep Farmer for depth, bring Martin up for CF and eventually Lee for whoever is hurt.

Is there a rule that rookies who play well can't get better in their 2nd year?  I know it's quite possible the league adjusts but it's also possible they get even better.  Maybe Wallner does adapt a better 2 strike approach.  Lewis just maintaining would be a boost if he plays a full season.  

53 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Royce Lewis: I don't believe he will regress at all. May even get better. Royce looks like a superstar so I fully expect him to continue looking like a superstar. 

The question with Royce is how healthy he will be. He has been injured fairly consistently thus far so I'd imagine the same. Gonna need decent depth to get through the year. With health last year... I believe Royce would have raced past Gunnar Henderson for the rookie of the year award and Gunnar was an unanimous selection.  

Edouard Julien: Julien was our most disciplined hitter last year as a rookie. If he holds his approach at the plate I'll bet on him actually getting better. However... He only had 46 AB's vs Left Handers last year. Posters on Twinsdaily have traded Polanco somewhere to give Julien the 2B job. He only had 46 AB's vs Left Handers last year. He either needs a right handed hitter hand cuffed to him or he will be mixing AB's against left handers into his stats and how that turns out is anyone's guess since he was only given 46 AB's last year vs lefties. He wasn't properly prepared last year for what a lot of us are asking him to do this year. He won't step up and be the hitter a lot of us think he can be until he hits lefties. 

Matt Wallner: The most likely of the three to face the sophomore slump. We need to prepared for the possibility. We need our depth here. Wallner has two options remaining so he can be safely taken off the 26 man if needed. Having Kirilloff, Larnach, Castro and Gordon around is needed just in case. The possibility of Wallner taking a step back next year is one of the reasons that IMO we actually need a big hitter more than we need a starting pitcher if you had to choose between the two.  

 

We need both,  starting pitcher and a decent big league hitter ...

I don't believe in regression  , I believe in consistency  and consistency is adjustments to the adjustments  the other teams pitchers are making against them  , if they can cut down on the strikouts , and the better players will and make consistent contacts and make something happen  that should improve their hitting  ...

I see Lewis and Julian as the better players with a better approach , wallner has some work to do ...

Please stay out of the double play  , use the hit and run , hit behind the runner to the opposite field,  maybe an occasional bunt depending on who's in the on deck circle and give the other team the out and put a runner into scoring position with 2 outs to go , got to improve on runner's in scoring position  ...

Go Twins   ...

Lewis will have a great year that could mean a slight recession.

Julien if shifted to 1B I see very little recession. But if he's over-stretched as primary 2Bman I see a much more recession.

I agree with the common consensus that Wallner has the greatest recession of the 3.

30 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I don't believe in regression  , I believe in consistency  and consistency is adjustments to the adjustments  the other teams pitchers are making against them  , if they can cut down on the strikouts , and the better players will and make consistent contacts and make something happen  that should improve their hitting  ...Go Twins   ...

Adjustment is the key! Lewis is great at adjusting. He adjusts his swing depending on the pitcher & pitch. He doesn't have the same swing for every pitch. That is what makes him great & what Twins need to teach each hitter to do so. Not maintaining the same swing no matter what.

Nick covered just about everything here. 

Julien appears to be the best choice to maintain or improve on his first year. In the minor leagues he had a higher BABIP and also improved at each level to varying degrees. He may also be working on both strength and flexibility this winter. Julien is a good bet for me.

Lewis had such good stats the last few years that he seems to have figured some things out. The chance for regression is certainly there for Royce but his determination and focus will be keen after missing so much time due to injuries. Lewis has a good vision of what it is like to be sidelined and missed opportunities, which may be a real force in his drive to succeed.

Wallner is an unknown to some extent. He just destroys some balls and flails wildly at other times. His progression shows steady improvement and an ability to adapt after stretches where he slumps. Wallner is another player who may return from a winter of working on self-improvement to have a strong second year. 

As a few other people have pointed out, good health and increased performance from other players (all of Buxton, Correa, Kirilloff, and Polanco) could be a big factor in helping the three guys noted in this article towards a better year in 2024.

53 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Adjustment is the key! Lewis is great at adjusting. He adjusts his swing depending on the pitcher & pitch. He doesn't have the same swing for every pitch. That is what makes him great & what Twins need to teach each hitter to do so. Not maintaining the same swing no matter what.

It's obvious to the fans but management  likes spread sheets  ...

Utilize both old school and new school  baseball and you'll see a vast improvement in the hitters ...

I can see these guys having some ups and downs but what if they are legit stars. Guys that dont let the lows get real low and make constant adjustments to reach new highs. What if over a full season they don’t regress? Or just statistically a minimal difference…  2024 could be an absolute change from what we are used to seeing.  What if our hitting and scoring outshines our pitching? Oh the possibilities!!

I’m going to be the contrarian and say Wallner hits 40 HRs next season and OPS over .980 while Lewis and Julien slump back about .20 too .30 OPS points off of this year’s total.  

I say they will all get better. And next year I will say I told you so. That's better than looking for regression and getting it. 

Hanging on to hope.

7 hours ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

"We have nothing to fear but fear itself." Winston Churchill.

I think Winny would've made a good Twins fan.

I'm pretty sure that wasn't Winston. But yeah. 👍