The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Player Assets of 2024: Part 3 (6-10)

[Nick Nelson]

Today we break into the top 10 in our rundown of Minnesota's organizational talent landscape. Read on to learn which players are among the most vital to the team's future fortunes.

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker, Matt Krohn, Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

You can get a full explanation for the parameters used to develop this list in Tuesday's intro post, but the short version is this: We're addressing the question: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion? To rank Twins players and prospects, we account for age, contract, controllability, upside, and other factors. 

Here's where I landed with my selections for the list so far in Part 1 (16-20) and Part 2 (11-15):

20. Chris Paddack, RHP
19. Austin Martin, CF
18. Max Kepler, RF
17. Alex Kirilloff, 1B
16. David Festa, RHP
15. Louie Varland, RHP
14. Jorge Polanco, 2B
13. Marco Raya, RHP
12. Matt Wallner, RF
11. Jhoan Durán, RHP

Read on to find my choices for for Nos. 6 through 10 on this year's list.

10. Joe Ryan, RHP
2023 Ranking: 4

It's difficult to know exactly how to evaluate Ryan's 2023 campaign. In the first half, he pitched like an All-Star. Then, he was completely awful for a six-week stretch while (we later learned) pitching through injury. After some time on the injured list, he pitched fairly well down the stretch, but not well enough to earn a major postseason role.

So what is Ryan, going forward: a legitimate No. 2 or 3 starter, as he's appeared for much of his MLB career; or more of a back-end type, as his overall 2023 numbers (4.51 ERA, 4.13 FIP) suggest. At this point, I lean a little more toward the former, helping him remain in the top 10 on this list, and either way he'd rank somewhere in this range, as a proven, durable big-league starter with four remaining seasons of team control.

9. Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF
2023 Ranking: 10

Another very tricky player to rank, given the extreme boom-or-bust proposition that he entails. Ranked by TD (and most outlets) as the No. 3 prospect in the organization, Rodriguez starred at High-A Cedar Rapids last year, putting forth one of the Midwest League's finest offensive performances at age 20. In 99 games for the Kernels, he slashed .240/.400/.463 with 16 homers, 20 steals, and 92 walks, while playing center field regularly.

Rodriguez's patience at the plate is virtually unheard-of, and he can hit the ball really hard when he connects. But the former top international signee also struggles with making contact to an extreme degree. It's difficult to succeed in the majors with that level of whiff in your profile. He's got the complementary ingredients to do so, however, and if E-Rod can find a way to become a little more aggressive and boost his bat-to-ball (without sacrificing the core qualities of his game), he's got superstar potential that is plain to see.

 

8. Edouard Julien, 2B
2023 Ranking: NR

Coming into last season, the general attitude of prospect evaluators regarding Julien seemed to be: prove it. Yes, the Canadian infielder had made a name for himself with his uniquely patient plate approach and stellar production throughout the minors, but you weren't going to find the former 18th-round draft pick on any global top prospect rankings – despite his remarkable offensive campaign at Double-A in 2022 (.931 OPS, third-best in the Texas League).

Julien did prove it. His offensive recipe was no fluke or novelty. After joining the Twins early in the season, he crushed right-handed pitchers to the tune of .274/.401/.497, with 16 homers, 15 doubles, and 62 walks in 360 plate appearances. His unrivaled eye and ability to jump on pitches in the zone give Julien, controlled through 2029, a pretty sustainable outlook. The lack of clear defensive fit or value is the only factor really holding him back at this point.

7. Bailey Ober, RHP
2023 Ranking: 7

Ober has always offered tantalizing potential when on the big-league mound: a 6-foot-9 giant with a live fastball, killer changeup, and excellent control. Durability has been his main adversary, but Ober finally (largely) overcame it in a breakthrough 2023 campaign that saw him post a 3.43 ERA in 145 innings, ranking third on the Twins staff in fWAR.

Unlike Ryan's, Ober's performance leaves little doubt of his worthiness to be in the front half of an MLB rotation. He just needs to keep building up physically, staying strong and healthy through the entirety of a six-month season, which is the one hurdle he hasn't crossed.

6. Carlos Correa, SS
2023 Ranking: 2

A bizarre sequence of events led to the Twins landing Correa last offseason with a $200-million contract that was drastically lower than the price his market had set just weeks earlier. Naturally, it was tough to know how to factor in the ankle concerns that led to this drop, but as I saw it, the Twins were able acquire a superstar player on a relatively team-friendly deal through his remaining prime years. Thus, Correa ranked as the second-highest asset on this list when I updated it after he signed.

I still hold those sentiments, to some extent, even with Correa coming off a career-worst season in which he exhibited some significant signs of breakdown. He still played great defense, stayed on the field, embraced his role as a leader in every regard, and – importantly – rounded into familiar form when it mattered most in October. I'm not saying the team couldn't possibly find better ways to use $36 million on next year's roster, especially if you believe Correa is destined to be more of an average-ish hitter going forward, but this is not the kind of talent you come across easily.

That's it for today's installment! Join us tomorrow as we wrap up this year's countdown with our rankings No. 1 through 5. Between now and then, feel free to debate the order of the first 15 names revealed, and offer up any worthy players you think I missed.

20. Chris Paddack, RHP
19. Austin Martin, CF
18. Max Kepler, RF
17. Alex Kirilloff, 1B
16. David Festa, RHP
15. Louie Varland, RHP
14. Jorge Polanco, 2B
13. Marco Raya, RHP
12. Matt Wallner, RF
11. Jhoan Durán, RHP
10. Joe Ryan, RHP
9. Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF
8. Edouard Julien, 2B
7. Bailey Ober, RHP
6. Carlos Correa, SS

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Ryan does have a lot to prove to show he is closer to first half 2023 and that he is over whatever injury he was fighting at that point (if that is truly the primary reason he struggled so much after the calendar turned to July.) 

On that note, do we know who is going to driveline this offseason? I know it seemingly helped a number of pitchers last year work on their craft. Hopefully a number of them (or all) are going there again this offseason.

[AlwaysinModeration]

35 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

On that note, do we know who is going to driveline this offseason? I know it seemingly helped a number of pitchers last year work on their craft. Hopefully a number of them (or all) are going there again this offseason.

Heard that Ryan, Jax, Lopez and Thielbar were there.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

Would love to see others, including Simeon Woods Richardson, in attending. Thanks!

[roger]

Very interesting group, Nick.  The only change I would make is not have ERod this high.  Just too many questions, at least in my mind.  If he does have this value to others, I could see him headlining a trade as we move towards spring training.

What I found most interesting was that your #7 and #8 most valuable players were both relatively low draft picks.  For a mid-market team like the Twins, it is a must to get this type of value out of your mid-to-low draft picks.  Makes me wonder if there a more guys like this on the way?  And who might they be?

 

[PDX Twin]

11 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Heard that Ryan, Jax, Lopez and Thielbar were there.  

What a man! Lopez has the season of his life, signs a long-term contract, and is still working hard to improve. I hope his attitude is contagious!

[NoCryingInBaseball]

Final five remaining.....I'm guessing:

1. Brooks Lee, SS

2. Royce Lewis, SS

3. Pablo Lopez, RHP

4. Walker Jenkins OF

5. Byron Buxton, CF

[Fatbat]

To think that Erod is so young and doing what he did in high A is so cool to watch. He looks like an unrefined Julien at the plate. If he crushes in Wichita this spring, do they sent him to St. Paul in July? How far does he have to cut his swing and miss rate to? Could a ‘26 outfield of Wallner,Jenkins,Erod be the best in baseball?  So much in the superstars of the future bag right now. 
Joe Ryan may be top 5 next year. His first half ‘23 wasn’t a fluke. I would pencil him in for an allstar appearance in ‘24. He is just that good and he will regain the trust of baldelli with his game early in ‘24. The dude is a little quirky but amazingly talented. 
both C4 and Ober should be right where they are and Ober is going to add dependability to his resume. 

[Fatbat]

4 minutes ago, NoCryingInBaseball said:

Final five remaining.....I'm guessing:

1. Brooks Lee, SS

2. Royce Lewis, SS

3. Ryan Jeffers, C

4. Walker Jenkins OF

5. Byron Buxton, CF

What about Pablo?

[jmlease1]

Correa is the hardest to evaluate for a list like this for me. He's an incredibly important player for the Twins, because finding a shortstop who can hit and field has been a real problem over the years, and a healthy Correa does both in ways rarely seen in a Twins uniform. His playoff performance was exactly the kind of thing we hoped for, and if the plantar fasciitis is in the past then he could easily be worth his expensive contract. (according to Fangraphs methodology, Correa has been worth more than $35M 3 times already in his career; using bRef's he's done it 5 times, and that's if you value 1 WAR a) holding at $8M, and b) you take it on a linear fashion, both of which are a little questionable at this point.) So his contract is expensive but not truly problematic, but he also has enough of an injury history to be concerning.

He's an incredibly important asset one way or another.

[AlwaysinModeration]

21 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

What a man! Lopez has the season of his life, signs a long-term contract, and is still working hard to improve. I hope his attitude is contagious!

 

[nicksaviking]

24 minutes ago, NoCryingInBaseball said:

Final five remaining.....I'm guessing:

1. Brooks Lee, SS

2. Royce Lewis, SS

3. Ryan Jeffers, C

4. Walker Jenkins OF

5. Byron Buxton, CF

Buxton and his contract are probably negative value at the moment.  Hopefully he'll rebound this year though. You're missing Lopez, and I can't imagine a prospect who's a ranked somewhere in the 20-40 range is the team's most valuable asset. I'm not trading Lewis or Lopez for a guy like that. Probably not Jeffers either.

[AlwaysinModeration]

24 minutes ago, NoCryingInBaseball said:

Final five remaining.....I'm guessing:

1. Brooks Lee, SS

2. Royce Lewis, SS

3. Ryan Jeffers, C

4. Walker Jenkins OF

5. Byron Buxton, CF

Is it possible that Pablo is top five…and Buxton is not top 20?

[Karbo]

Ryan needs to develop or improve his secondary pitches to take the next step.

Rodriguez is to high on this list IMO. High K rate will only get worse in the majors with no Electronic K zone.

Julian should soar up this list next year IMO.

Ober just needs to build up his stamina so he can give mor IP.

Correa will be better at the plate with the injury over (hopefully). 

[Nashvilletwin]

41 minutes ago, NoCryingInBaseball said:

Final five remaining.....I'm guessing:

1. Brooks Lee, SS

2. Royce Lewis, SS

3. Ryan Jeffers, C

4. Walker Jenkins OF

5. Byron Buxton, CF

Top 5 in order from #5-#1 are:

5. Jeffers

4. Lee

3. Jenkins

2. Lopez

1. Lewis 

[Nashvilletwin]

Nick, the rankings are very solid.  Well done.

I’m torn on Correa.  Undoubtedly, he was a huge contributor this past year. However, going forward he looks to be a very poor value, particularly given our cash constraints. It’s quite possible by the middle to end of 2024, Brooks Lee will already be the better all around SS with the gap only widening from there - and for 1/30th the cost.

Hope I’m wrong, but this is probably Correa’s last year in the top 10 on your annual list and, like Buxton now, he’s probably completely off the list after the ‘25 season.

[Jocko87]

You alluded to it but Julien needs to figure something out with hitting lefties. At least be functional. His value takes more of a hit being a pure platoon guy more than suffering on defense.

If he can do it that, to the moon.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Correa is a tough one to evaluate going forward.  I believe (but don't really know) that the next few years will be much better offensively than 2023, and if so, he deserves the #6 ranking, and probably more.  However, this could also be the start of a precipitous death spiral for his career which would be pretty terrible.  Let's hope I'm on the right side of that guess because his contribution will be really important.  Some are convinced that Brooks Lee will take over shortstop in a year or two, but that seems pretty doubtful given the kind of defense that Correa plays -- yes I know that some of the metrics didn't love him last year but he certainly passes (aces) the eye test. 

I have to say I also applaud your (non)take on Byron Buxton.  Since there are only five spots left and five obvious candidates for them without Buxton, I'm assuming he was left off the list.  I am in complete agreement, as you can't be valuable to your team if you aren't actually available to play.  At his best, he is/was very high impact and undoubtedly top 5, but in his current state I would rather have players 16 through 20 on your list than Buxton.  I hope I am very wrong on this, but I think his remaining time with the team is likely to be pretty painful. 

So who's #1?  Lewis, Jenkins, or Lopez?  I'm going with Lewis but it's an easy argument to make for any of the three.

[Brandon]

Didn’t Ober have a healthy year this last year?  He did pitch a full season.  The Twins did limit his innings a little so he would be ready for the postseason.  
 

As far as the rankings go I think you ranked Raya and ERod too high.  They are both a long ways from the majors. Pitching prospects have a high flame out rate.  I do agree on your Festa ranking as he is on the cusp of being a major league starter.  Anyways just nitpicking.  These lists are fun this time of year when nothing is happening.  
 

From the comments above it does seem like someone deserving of a top 20 asset is getting squeezed.  I’ll stay tuned to find out.

[tony&rodney]

Lot of love for Lewis. Sure hope the weight of expectations after only 280 MLB plate appearances aren't too overwhelming. 

[nicksaviking]

33 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Didn’t Ober have a healthy year this last year?  He did pitch a full season.  The Twins did limit his innings a little so he would be ready for the postseason.  
 

As far as the rankings go I think you ranked Raya and ERod too high.  They are both a long ways from the majors. Pitching prospects have a high flame out rate.  I do agree on your Festa ranking as he is on the cusp of being a major league starter.  Anyways just nitpicking.  These lists are fun this time of year when nothing is happening.  
 

From the comments above it does seem like someone deserving of a top 20 asset is getting squeezed.  I’ll stay tuned to find out.

As young as they are, Raya is already in AA and Rodriguez should start there this year. It's not out of the question that either are called up this year. 

And while Raya's first six outings in AA started off rough, giving up 16 ER and 11 BB in 13 innings, his last five outings saw him surrender 1 ER and 3 BB in 16 innings. If Festa doesn't have his control worked out before Raya moves to AAA, Raya's going to leapfrog him in the pecking order and probably never look back.

[stringer bell]

I think Ryan will be good in 2024. He was inconsistent with his third pitch, but the carry on the fastball seemed to negate a lot of his struggles with secondary pitches in the first half. He's smart and he'll adjust.

Bailey Ober threw over 170 innings between St. Paul and the Twins in 2023. I don't know if he'll duplicate that number, but it has seemed to me that the concern for him to be durable is a bit overblown. His injury in 2022 was lower body, not his arm FWIW and he wasn't injured (to my knowledge) in 2021. It is true that he hadn't thrown a high amount of innings due to injury going into 2021.

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Correa is a tough one to evaluate going forward.  I believe (but don't really know) that the next few years will be much better offensively than 2023, and if so, he deserves the #6 ranking, and probably more.  However, this could also be the start of a precipitous death spiral for his career which would be pretty terrible.  Let's hope I'm on the right side of that guess because his contribution will be really important.  Some are convinced that Brooks Lee will take over shortstop in a year or two, but that seems pretty doubtful given the kind of defense that Correa plays -- yes I know that some of the metrics didn't love him last year but he certainly passes (aces) the eye test. 

I have to say I also applaud your (non)take on Byron Buxton.  Since there are only five spots left and five obvious candidates for them without Buxton, I'm assuming he was left off the list.  I am in complete agreement, as you can't be valuable to your team if you aren't actually available to play.  At his best, he is/was very high impact and undoubtedly top 5, but in his current state I would rather have players 16 through 20 on your list than Buxton.  I hope I am very wrong on this, but I think his remaining time with the team is likely to be pretty painful. 

So who's #1?  Lewis, Jenkins, or Lopez?  I'm going with Lewis but it's an easy argument to make for any of the three.

I'm going with pitching  , starting pitching was a high value  in 2023 ...

Lopez # 1 ....

[sweetmusicviola16]

My honest opinion is Correa is overrated by a lot. And overpaid by, a lot. Top 20, but on the outside of top 15 and looking in.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Spot on with the write up on ERod. He is just a bit underrated imo, I would have him at #6. Soon to be Super Star.

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I'm going with pitching  , starting pitching was a high value  in 2023 ...

Lopez # 1 ....

I agree. I hope I'm not getting too far off topic, but one of my biggest concerns for 2024 is the health and effectiveness of ...................Pablo López. López has an injury history and he was mostly healthy in 2022 and didn't miss a turn in 2023. If he can stay healthy and effective next year, I think he cements his ace status. There are precious few starting pitchers who are both healthy and effective year after year and if López becomes one of them, it justifies trading a fine hitter no matter what Luis Arraez does in Miami. It is even more crucial to the Twins that López is a top of the rotation guy in 2024 because the other top of the rotation guy is gone. 

[Brandon]

6 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

As young as they are, Raya is already in AA and Rodriguez should start there this year. It's not out of the question that either are called up this year. 

And while Raya's first six outings in AA started off rough, giving up 16 ER and 11 BB in 13 innings, his last five outings saw him surrender 1 ER and 3 BB in 16 innings. If Festa doesn't have his control worked out before Raya moves to AAA, Raya's going to leapfrog him in the pecking order and probably never look back.

And I would rate Raya at 13 once he leap frogs Festa.  There is still distance from where he is and that point.  Also Raya has been on strict pitch counts limiting his innings pitched.  I just think he has more to do to get the higher ranking.  That’s just my opinion and not that big a deal in the grand scheme.  I feel like a 19 or 20 ranking due to potential is more accurate for where he is at.  

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/4/2024 at 10:13 AM, NoCryingInBaseball said:

Final five remaining.....I'm guessing:

1. Brooks Lee, SS

2. Royce Lewis, SS

3. Pablo Lopez, RHP

4. Walker Jenkins OF

5. Byron Buxton, CF

Jeffers displaces Buxton down to 21 or so…….maybe?

[saviking]

23 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Nick, the rankings are very solid.  Well done.

I’m torn on Correa.  Undoubtedly, he was a huge contributor this past year. However, going forward he looks to be a very poor value, particularly given our cash constraints. It’s quite possible by the middle to end of 2024, Brooks Lee will already be the better all around SS with the gap only widening from there - and for 1/30th the cost.

Hope I’m wrong, but this is probably Correa’s last year in the top 10 on your annual list and, like Buxton now, he’s probably completely off the list after the ‘25 season.

I've been hammering on that all last year. As a small market team, we should have never thrown so much money into one player, especially at his age. I mean they had to know how risky our television deal would be coming up when they did it. BUT,, we're stuck with his contract now .. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/4/2024 at 10:18 AM, Fatbat said:

What about Pablo?

#1-#5……Pablo - Lewis - Jenkins - Lee - Jeffers